Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Furniture]

If we are going back to 1979 we might as well go back to 490 BC

You need to go back to at least 550 BC, and Cyrus The Great.

 

[Halifax Tar]

You need to go back to at least 550 BC, and Cyrus The Great.

His name still strikes fear the hearts of the people of Sunnyvale Trailer Park

 

[brihard]

Any shipping transiting Hormuz that pays fees or tolls to the Iranians will now lose insurance if they’re insured by a Lloyd’s market carrier. Lloyd’s Market Association has determined that due to terrorism sanctions they won’t eat the legal risk of insuring any hulls who deal with Iran in such a way.

LMA - LMA publishes new clause and guidance note addressing transit fee payments in the Strait of Hormuz

lmalloyds.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Apparently the Iran conflict has a mere 27% support in the US. Likely as DT ran on a "No new wars" platform and then gets himself stuck into one. To be fair it certainly isn't "new", but it will be portrayed that way.

I suspect that the total lack of commitment by the Gulf States to fight back and the expectation that someone else should do the dirty work and the Gulf States get the benefits does not help sell this war.

 

[dapaterson]

I mean, one could credibly argue that Iran is an old war, not a new war.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I mean, one could credibly argue that Iran is an old war, not a new war.

With similar levels of diplomatic skills being displayed

 

[Altair]

I mean, one could credibly argue that Iran is an old war, not a new war.

As old as the war may be, it was before a cold war, a simmering conflict in the background.

People obviously dont remember Biden stuck trying to bomb iran, to the contrast is jarring to say the least.

That said, unpopular war, midterms coming up, the comeuppance is on its way.

 

[Altair]

Trump’s Foul-Mouthed Oval Office Meltdown Is Leaked

President Donald Trump flew into an expletive-laden rage in the Oval Office over his bungled war on Iran, according to people who heard the meltdown. The U.S. and Iran remain locked in a rapidly escal...

www.yahoo.com

He showed this frustration when he was quizzed by a reporter about the timeline at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, after attending Sunday's World Cup final in New Jersey. "On Iran, Mr. President, you said at the start of the war it would be four or five weeks," the reporter said. "Now it's nearly five months?"

Trump immediately shot back that the reporter had somehow undersold the scale of the task at hand. "This is a far bigger job that we're doing," he said. "We were doing a little job, stopping them from having a certain capability. Now, we're just ending it."



He continued with a rambling, garbled answer before stopping the interview and hot-footing it to the waiting Marine One helicopter.

He was much clearer inside the White House, according to insiders who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. He reportedly went into meltdown mode, calling Iranian leaders "scumbags and lunatics" in a rant peppered with expletives.

Failed negotiations with Iran have made him angry, according to people familiar with the matter. One senior administration official told the Journal that the president believes that the only thing Iran understands is military force.

They said that he was in "revenge mode" against Tehran, adding that he has no bright ideas beyond continuing strikes.

If the leaks are correct ( and I love how leaks always become more prevelant the more unpopular a leader gets) he is one of us. No clue how to end this.

The Journal cited "people familiar with the matter" who said that Trump has complained about the Kafkaesque network of people that his diplomats must navigate to reach Iranian leadership. He has also moaned that every time he feels progress has been made at the negotiating table, Iran strikes a U.S. target, undoing all the good work, the sources said.

His headaches have been made worse by claims from Israeli intelligence that he is personally a target. Israeli sources told the WSJ earlier this month that Iran had devised a plot to kill him.

Trump referenced being "No. 1 on the kill list for Iran" when asked why he flew home from a NATO summit in Turkey on an older Air Force One instead of his new plane, the $400 million Boeing 747-800 that was gifted to him by Qatar. After initially claiming he used the older jet for "old times' sake," it later emerged that his new Air Force One lacks the same defensive systems—including antimissile capabilities—as the old one, and the Secret Service urged the switch.

The Journal has now been told that this threat extends to his top aides. They have been told to stop using car services as a result, according to people familiar with the matter.

That fancy new jet isn't really working out.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I found this to be an interesting conversation.

 

[Altair]

I found this to be an interesting conversation.

Youtubes AI summery

AI ASSISTED
This video features an in-depth analysis of the ongoing Iran-US conflict by political scientist Robert Pape. He explains why the conflict has entered a dangerous, high-stakes phase and why traditional military strategies have failed to produce a resolution.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Failure of Air Power: Pape explains that despite an intensive US bombing campaign that eliminated significant Iranian leadership, the regime survived, illustrating the historical reality that air power alone rarely topples a government (0:03:12-0:04:00).
• The Strategic Shift: The conflict has become a struggle for the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global energy artery), which Iran effectively seized control of early in the war. Pape notes this has empowered Iran as a regional hegemon (0:08:33-0:09:50).
• The "Escalation Trap": The conflict is caught in an escalation ladder (0:48:23-0:50:25). The US is now facing the "fork in the road" between accepting a strategic defeat by letting Iran keep control of the strait, or further escalating—potentially including the use of ground troops, which Pape estimates has a 70% probability (0:55:26-1:03:27).
• Economic Crisis Risks: Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and recent Houthi actions in the Red Sea, global oil supplies are critically strained. US strategic oil reserves have hit a 40-year low (0:33:52-0:34:55).
• The Threat of Suicide Terrorism: Pape, an expert on the subject, warns that the presence of foreign military forces on territory viewed as their own acts as the primary driver for suicide terrorism. He expresses serious concern about a potential mass-casualty attack (1:11:20-1:13:20).
• The Domestic/International Collision: Pape highlights that this crisis is colliding with the US midterm elections, creating a dangerous environment where domestic political pressure for a "symbolic victory" may force further, ill-advised military maneuvers (1:23:15-1:29:00).

An hour and 40 minutes is a tad on the long side.

And please folks, @Czech_pivo posted the video, don't respond to me.

 

[brihard]

Looks like last night the Houthis launched attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Photos/videos are consistent with something having been hit in Jazan, and NASA fire monitoring sites show SA significant area of fire signatures at the ARAMCO refinery in Jazan, outside of what you see most days from burning gas flares. I’d say there’s a good chance the refinery was in fact struck.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/yemens-houthis-say-they-carried-out-operations-against-aramco-facilities-in-saudis-jizan-and-yanbu/

The port of Yanbu is harder to tell. Yanbu’s important because it’s the Red Sea terminus of the pipeline across the Arabian peninsula to bypass Hormuz.

Now, as a note of caution, the Houthis have their own significant beef with the Saudis over Yemen itself and who get to control it. So it’s possible this is blowing up for reasons at least partly distinct from their role as an Iranian proxy. But that could also be opportunism, where Houthi desire to pressure the Kingdom aligns with their supporting role to Iran and the strategic campaign against oil trade.

Any succesful Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure further complicated the theatre’s air defense picture. I could potentially see a role for friendly nations to contribute to an air defence mission aimed at protecting Saudi Arabia against the Houthis…

If the Houthi claim to have struck Yanbu is true, that’s ~800km as the drone flies. Depending on this weapon stocks, a second Houthi front in this could really suck.

 

[dapaterson]

Can't validate the source, but reports of a catastrophic mine strike in th Gulf.

Oil tanker explodes in Hormuz Strait after hitting mine

TEHRAN, Jul. 26 (MNA) – An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which had turned off its radar system, exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz.

en.mehrnews.com

 

[brihard]

Can't validate the source, but reports of a catastrophic mine strike in th Gulf.

Oil tanker explodes in Hormuz Strait after hitting mine

TEHRAN, Jul. 26 (MNA) – An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which had turned off its radar system, exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz.

en.mehrnews.com

Mehr is state sponsored Iranian media. This isn’t the first time Iranian media has claimed a mine strike. I’ll wait for better sources, personally. If it’s legit, UKMTO will be all over this.

Iran/US more generally- we’re now a few nights seemingly without US strikes. NYT has reported (I don’t have a non-paywall copy) that the U.S. administration has grown very concerned about interceptor stocks, which is something we’ve been talking about here for months. Might be that Iran’s ability to slip missiles through and kill some Americans, in conjunction with dwindling interception capability, is giving the Americans pause. I also speculate that after the Kuwaitis took a few hits on power/desalination plants, the Gulf states may be getting a bit desperate to curb escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz remains for the most part functionally closed. There will be shipping getting through as smaller tankers slip by and then do shit to ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, but wholesale shipping of oil out of the gulf remains heavily constricted.

The geopolitical concerns about reduced oil supply have not gone away. The sorta-ceasefire let tens of millions of barrels out, but that was applying pressure to the wound, not stopping the bleeding. Now we’re back to square one.

Iran, so far, has been resilient to U.S. efforts to force a reopening of the strait by military means. They have demonstrated they can still kill Americans and hit critical infrastructure, and I think they’ve consolidated on a decent strategic position here. If they continue to keep the strait choked off, they can probably force concessions that stick.

Not how any of us wanted to see this go, but it is in line with what some of us have been predicting. Mutually assured destruction of critical infrastructure, and limitations in magazine depth do not appear to have been adequately considered and anticipated by the U.S. administration.

 

[RangerRay]

Mutually assured destruction of critical infrastructure, and limitations in magazine depth do not appear to have been adequately considered and anticipated by the U.S. administration.

A lot of things do not appear to have been adequately considered and anticipated by this administration.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Kinda like, let me think, Vietnam returnees ....

"Coming from someone who’s recently redeployed home - With everything that’s gone on over the past 5 months, why are senior leaders acting like nothings going on in CENTCOM? Transitioning back has been so weird. It’s as if I’m supposed to act like I didn’t just almost die many times and like it didn’t even happen… leadership asked me “how my vacation deployment was?” Started comparing their deployments to Al Dahfra and how they got to go to Dubai and the beach and so on… Was in shock and didn’t know how to respond. Also why are there no briefings or talks with the airmen at the lowest levels of what’s happening? Imagine sending a new airmen out the door, all their preparation was CBTs, rather than having conversations about it and mentally preparing airmen for what we actually signed up for. Not stateside peacetime bullshit.
I guess if we treat it like it’s not happening then you don’t have to deal with it."

Air Force amn/nco/snco

Inbox: "Coming from someone who’s recently redeployed home - With everything that’s gone on over the past 5 months, why are senior leaders acting like nothings going on in CENTCOM? Transitioning back...

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