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Iran Super Thread- Merged

So obviously the gut feeling of the president, who has f... all knowledge of the situation is a much better source of
With the resources available to the US intelligence and military and the Israeli military and intelligence kicking in what they know, I'm pretty confident Trump knows more about the situation than anyone here.
 
Lack (or at least apparent lack) of Iranian WMD efforts in the 2003 to 2008 frame may have been influenced by what was going on next door and how keen the US administration of the day was to choose "military intervention" from its list of options. I have no notion that any far-reaching conclusions about Iran's long-term goal can be drawn.

A long count of years has passed since then.
 
With the resources available to the US intelligence and military and the Israeli military and intelligence kicking in what they know, I'm pretty confident Trump knows more about the situation than anyone here.
I tend to doubt that, mainly as due to the systemic purging of our intelligence and military. It has been reported again and again that a lot of actual intelligence is gutted before it arrives to be viewed by POTUS or the SecDef (until Department of War gets accreditation by Congress it is still DoD).
 
I tend to doubt that, mainly as due to the systemic purging of our intelligence and military. It has been reported again and again that a lot of actual intelligence is gutted before it arrives to be viewed by POTUS or the SecDef (until Department of War gets accreditation by Congress it is still DoD).
I would also suspect that in cases where a range of assessments of varying probability exist, it’s probably in the best interest of officials to present the official assessment most in line with what they expect the administration want to hear. Pulling, perhaps, from closer to the edge of the bell curves rather than the middle.
 
Well the Guardian is reporting that Saudi Arabia may be positioning ground forces for an attack into Yemen.


This should be interesting.

Hopefully they'll put flowers down the barrels of the guns on those 'Heavy Assault Vehicles' they got from Canada ;)

 
I tend to doubt that, mainly as due to the systemic purging of our intelligence and military. It has been reported again and again that a lot of actual intelligence is gutted before it arrives to be viewed by POTUS or the SecDef (until Department of War gets accreditation by Congress it is still DoD).
So you're saying this forum has better intelligence than the US?
Reported by who? Verified sources, democrats or the Washington Post? I'm not going to speculate on rumours, second hand info or WAGs on who or what is stripped from the files before it goes into a SCIF.
We have zero idea on what has been briefed. I'm not saying that we can't speculate or war game it based on what we've read or heard, but to say the POTUS doesn’t have a clue of the situation is a ridiculous assertion.
 
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So you're saying this forum has better intelligence than the US?
That isn’t at all what I said.


Reported by who? Verified sources, democrats or the Washington Post?
Several outstanding GOFO’s have quit from it.


I'm not going to speculate on rumours, second hand info or WAGs on who or what is stripped from the files before it goes into a SCIF.
We have zero idea on what has been briefed. I'm not saying that we can't speculate or war game it based on what we've read or heard, but to say the POTUS doesn’t have a clue of the situation is a ridiculous assertion.
I do not think he has a clue at all in how to deal with this. His whole transactional relationships fail when you run into either a Putin, or the current Iranian government.
Not everyone can be bought off with something he has.
 
So you're saying this forum has better intelligence than the US?
Reported by who? Verified sources, democrats or the Washington Post? I'm not going to speculate on rumours, second hand info or WAGs on who or what is stripped from the files before it goes into a SCIF.
We have zero idea on what has been briefed. I'm not saying that we can't speculate or war game it based on what we've read or heard, but to say the POTUS doesn’t have a clue of the situation is a ridiculous assertion.
Considering the Department of War has sent out a request to military personell for ideas on how to bring the Iranians to heel one could be justified in feeling Trump et al are looking to be pretty incompetent on this whole thing.
 
Considering the Department of War has sent out a request to military personell for ideas on how to bring the Iranians to heel one could be justified in feeling Trump et al are looking to be pretty incompetent on this whole thing.
The fact that a bunch of E-4s on a weekend bender drinking Everclear might actually come *up with a more workable plan that the current administration leadership is saddening, but at this point not surprising.
 
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The fact that a bunch of E-4s on a weekend bender drinking Everclear might actually come of with a more workable plan that the current administration leadership is saddening, but at this point not surprising.
I would buy someone a case of beer to be able to read the ideas that come in, because some are gonna be friggin’ spectacular.
 
Good information doesn't guarantee good judgement. He has the best information in the world, but...

It would be really helpful for everyone if the White House provided falsifiable clarity on the Iran nuclear program issue. If that means declassifying estimates, then that is what they should do. Even their allies (CANZUK etc..) are being kept in the dark (an assumption based on our political reaction) and its causing a massive rift in NATO when we need each other the most.
Somebody in the US IC may know more, whether or not trump himself knows is a different matter.
 
Considering the Department of War has sent out a request to military personell for ideas on how to bring the Iranians to heel one could be justified in feeling Trump et al are looking to be pretty incompetent on this whole thing.
The version of this I've seen is a CENTCOM int person canvassing "military analysts" asking for "new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran" ...
Still, I like this summary better :)
The fact that a bunch of E-4s on a weekend bender drinking Everclear might actually come of with a more workable plan that the current administration leadership is saddening, but at this point not surprising.
 
Good information doesn't guarantee good judgement. He has the best information in the world, but...

It would be really helpful for everyone if the White House provided falsifiable clarity on the Iran nuclear program issue. If that means declassifying estimates, then that is what they should do. Even their allies (CANZUK etc..) are being kept in the dark (an assumption based on our political reaction) and its causing a massive rift in NATO when we need each other the most.
Exactly. Whether he does anything with the info he's got or not is immaterial. My point being you can say he hasn’t a fucking clue, when he has some of the best intelligence in the world. I said nothing about how he would use it.

That isn’t at all what I said.



Several outstanding GOFO’s have quit from it.



I do not think he has a clue at all in how to deal with this. His whole transactional relationships fail when you run into either a Putin, or the current Iranian government.
Not everyone can be bought off with something he has.
Kev,
Sorry. I must've read you wrong.

I don’t consider resigning GOFO's as an unbiased source. We see much the same walk aways everytime the administration changes. And names, their names put the weight behind their decisions and opinions. Just tossing criticism out about Trump, without identification, equates to media saying 'sources who cannot be named have reported......'

As I said above, I never said he had a viable plan or knew what to do. I said the idea of him 'not having a clue' was ridiculous. He has the best info available, I never said he knew what to do with it
 
Considering the Department of War has sent out a request to military personell for ideas on how to bring the Iranians to heel one could be justified in feeling Trump et al are looking to be pretty incompetent on this whole thing.
Got a source for that?
 
Got a source for that?
The request from a senior officer at the US military command carrying out President Donald Trump’s war with Iran came in an email: We need ideas.

“We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran,” an officer in US Central Command’s intelligence branch wrote in a message sent Wednesday to a broad group of military analysts, according to a source familiar with the message. A second source also said that a senior US military officer sent the message last week soliciting new ideas for how to deal with Iran.

The crowdsourcing-style query, which military officials said was unusual over email, is one sign of the limited — and potentially unpalatable —options available to Trump to force Iran into a deal on his terms. Hoping to find an alternative, the official at CENTCOM kicked off the brainstorming session via email to see if anyone had a better idea. The second source said CENTCOM is looking at everything, acknowledging it needs to reevaluate the strategy.


The US has appealed to its soldiers for ideas on how to proceed with its war in Iran.

"We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran," an officer in the intelligence branch of US Central Command (Centcom) wrote in an email sent to a broad group of military analysts.

The request from the Pentagon reflects how Donald Trump's options have become limited over five months of a war that has failed to force Tehran to surrender.



Over the weekend, the US president repeated a pattern that has emerged since he launched Operation Epic Fury alongside Israel: announcing plans for "massive attacks" on Iran, only to cancel them at the last minute.

It's being widely reported.
 
Only bullies ask for ways to "punish" their opponent. Thoughtful people ask for ways to achieve their objective against their opponent (after, of course, having defined what that objective is).
 
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