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Trump administration 2024-2028

Who had avocado's on their bingo card? To be fair to the US, the Cartels have a tight hold on the avocado industry, so I can imagine being a "by the book" inspector might stir up trouble and get threatened.

 
Brad Sallows said:
"Generic congressional ballot" measure is relevant to House, not Senate (and not presidency either).

Due to some advantages favouring Republicans (mainly, more efficient voter distribution), customarily D+1 to as much as D+3 is reckoned a dead heat. RCP average has been running between D+6 and D+7 for some time now. Ordinarily this should indicate a comfortably high likelihood of Democrats winning the House. However, the DSA faction is really swinging for the fences this year and the resulting intra-party turmoil (basically, it's their turn to have the establishment vs insurgent fight now, and they're having it big time) and a few well-chosen (made for TV ad sound bite) fever swamp statements by DSA candidates are more likely to drag them down than push them up.

The DSA (like most insurgent factions) has figured out that the best place to get a toehold is in safe seats - swamp the primary and rely on the voters pulling the party lever without much regard for who the actual candidate is. Moderates are being squeezed out of safe seats, forcing the DNC centrists to expend more resources fighting tossups. (And they're relatively short of money, with potential donors not impressed by the DSA-backed candidates.)

Primary results suggest that the DSA candidates are substantially failing to attract working class and non-white voters, but pulling in more of the post-secondary educated vote. The Democratic voter defection problem is getting worse, not better. It is not a demographic pattern for success. If polls don't catch the pattern shift, the usual rules of thumb for judging how the election might land are out the window (ie. they could overperform more than usual in the very blue districts, and lose overall despite posting a higher total vote).
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Agreed.

I'm looking at the state by state polling for the actual senate races. Wikipedia has a dedicated page for the Senate elections where they bring together the most recent predictions from a wide range of polling companies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections. Only 1 of the 11 pollsters they show is confident enough to call an outcome at this point and that's calling for the Rs to keep control of the Senate. A couple of the others see the Ds pretty close but generally it's too close to call with too many toss ups.

Only a third of the Senate is up for election in any given cycle. This time round 22 of them are Republicans so in theory that should help the Ds since they're defending fewer seats and have more options to flip seats to give them the 4 they need to take the Senate. Unfortunately a couple of their seats are in states Trump won in 2024, like Michigan. Added to that is the fact that a lot of the R states are deep red ones like Alabama, South Dakota or Tennessee where despite Trump's historic disapproval level it's pretty hard to see the Ds flipping the state.

So yeah, by all that's holy it should be possible for the Ds to take the Senate, but less than 3 months out they still have their work cut out for them.
 
Staff Weenie said:
Quite a few Critical Care Nurses, and Docs are chiming in lately that survival rate for an 84 year old male with history of TIA/strokes, etc, found VSA and with CPR initiated on scene is well less than 10%. Some say less than 4%, and even those who survive are unlikely to avoid cognitive impairment and thus no longer capable of independent living. If he was standing when the even happened, he most likely suffered some form of head injury when he fell - it may even have been the precipitating event. With CPR on an elderly patient, it's highly likely multiple ribs went crunch. That means there's also a chance of a punctured lung. We also don't know how long he was possibly VSA before CPR commenced. All that to say, if initial information is accurate, he's either already dead, or on his way out the door soon due to pneumonia or multi-organ failure.
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Sounds like Mitch beat the odds.

No Proof of Life pic, yet, but, reportedly, the good news is hehas returned home from hospital to continue his recovery.

Earlier today, I was discharged from the rehabilitation center to continue my recovery at home. Elaine and I are grateful for the many well wishes and support from friends, colleagues, and Kentuckians, and for the attentive care I’ve received from excellent doctors, nurses, therapists, and hospital staff.
On the advice of my doctors, I’ll maintain an intensive regimen of physical therapy from home during the state work period, and I’ll continue to engage with my staff and colleagues on important Senate business.
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Latest (as of Friday) on the Qatar plane gift from the info-machine:
1786397046410.png
More:
www.airandspaceforces.com

Pentagon Revokes Former SECAF Kendall’s Security Clearance

The Pentagon revoked former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s security clearance for allegedly disclosing classified information.
www.airandspaceforces.com www.airandspaceforces.com
www.foxnews.com

Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has security clearance revoked over Air Force One disclosure

The Department of War revoked former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s eligibility to access classified information and hold sensitive positions
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
www.upi.com

Accused of leak, former Air Force secretary loses security clearance - UPI.com

U.S. officials revoked Frank Kendall's access to classified information, accusing the former secretary of the Air Force of leaking information.
www.upi.com www.upi.com
 
The interesting thing is that the US Government can and has retroactively classified information in the past.
And given how ham handed this administration has been in dealing with those it dislikes I surprised it hasn't done that already.
It tends to clumsily flail about when dealing those people who've raised its ire.
Probably a good thing that it's so disorganized.
 
The Bread Guy said:
Latest (as of Friday) on the Qatar plane gift from the info-machine:
View attachment 101693
More:
www.airandspaceforces.com

Pentagon Revokes Former SECAF Kendall’s Security Clearance

The Pentagon revoked former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s security clearance for allegedly disclosing classified information.
www.airandspaceforces.com www.airandspaceforces.com
www.foxnews.com

Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has security clearance revoked over Air Force One disclosure

The Department of War revoked former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s eligibility to access classified information and hold sensitive positions
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
www.upi.com

Accused of leak, former Air Force secretary loses security clearance - UPI.com

U.S. officials revoked Frank Kendall's access to classified information, accusing the former secretary of the Air Force of leaking information.
www.upi.com www.upi.com
Click to expand...

Amateur mistake, forgot the declare "we are currently clean on OPSEC" when talking in the presence of journalists/reporters.
 
The Bread Guy said:
Latest (as of Friday) on the Qatar plane gift from the info-machine:
View attachment 101693
More:
www.airandspaceforces.com

Pentagon Revokes Former SECAF Kendall’s Security Clearance

The Pentagon revoked former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s security clearance for allegedly disclosing classified information.
www.airandspaceforces.com www.airandspaceforces.com
www.foxnews.com

Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has security clearance revoked over Air Force One disclosure

The Department of War revoked former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s eligibility to access classified information and hold sensitive positions
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
www.upi.com

Accused of leak, former Air Force secretary loses security clearance - UPI.com

U.S. officials revoked Frank Kendall's access to classified information, accusing the former secretary of the Air Force of leaking information.
www.upi.com www.upi.com
Click to expand...
He should at least been using Signal
 
Czech_pivo said:
What's interesting about this is that I do not believe that the US is using the strat oil res for their own usage but to be able to refine/sell (export) it on the open market in order to allow those short from Gulf oil to be able to address their needs. This of course means that this revenue flows back to the US.
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Indeed, revenue is accrued, but the main purpose has been to buffer global prices so that domestic prices are buffered as well. At a certain point, the ability to buffer global prices will no longer be possible as the SPR hits a practical low limit for extraction.
 
Good2Golf said:
Indeed, revenue is accrued, but the main purpose has been to buffer global prices so that domestic prices are buffered as well. At a certain point, the ability to buffer global prices will no longer be possible as the SPR hits a practical low limit for extraction.
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Push that out 10-15yrs and then look at US production numbers vs today's.
 
Czech_pivo said:
Push that out 10-15yrs and then look at US production numbers vs today's.
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I’m not sure it’s even possible to predict what 10-155 years is going to look like, let alone 3-4 months. The U.S. can’t keep drawing down the SPR indefinitely. There are 53mbbls remaining in Trump’s 179Mbbl drawdown approval, so depending on drawdown rate, it could hit minimum in 2026.
 
Good2Golf said:
I’m not sure it’s even possible to predict what 10-155 years is going to look like, let alone 3-4 months. The U.S. can’t keep drawing down the SPR indefinitely. There are 53mbbls remaining in Trump’s 179Mbbl drawdown approval, so depending on drawdown rate, it could hit minimum in 2026.
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Understood.
Just know that the US's current output is based on old/played out fields that have more good days behind them than in front of them.

Have read reports that their production will be around 2m bpd less in 10-12yrs than it is today.
 
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