Iran Super Thread- Merged

[PrairieFella]

Looks someone’s AI may still be writing checks that he can’t fulfill.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2094249462906446263

Is there any imdependent verification theyre hitting Kharg right now? That would be very stupid.

 

[McG]

Is there any imdependent verification theyre hitting Kharg right now? That would be very stupid.

It’s AI video. Looks like a threat that he won’t be able to follow through on.

 

[PrairieFella]

It’s AI video. Looks like a threat that he won’t be able to follow through on.

I know its AI. Im wondering about the claim.

 

[McG]

I am reading his post as a threat to Iran and not a claim of such a thing actually happening now.

All he has left is threats that he can’t deliver.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There are claims that a bunch IRGC sites were hit yesterday, including the killing of a IRGC leader live on TV.

 

[PrairieFella]

There are claims that a bunch IRGC sites were hit yesterday, including the killing of a IRGC leader live on TV.

Barron must have bought some calls on oil companies. Here comes oil back to the moon.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Barron must have bought some calls on oil companies. Here comes oil back to the moon.

Jumped here from $1.96 to $2.16

 

[KevinB]

All he has left is threats that he can’t deliver.

The issue is that he can deliver on them.
As you well know the US military can strike Kharg Island - by naval and/or air assets.

The bigger issue is the what then.
The Service Chief’s have been asking Hegseth to dial it back.

Recent strikes have led to Iran firing at least 8 Ballistic missiles at Jordan and the UAE.

Not to mention inviting Russia to the G20 summit has made NATO annoyed that POTUS is off dancing to his own drummer, and seemingly intentionally screwing over long time allies.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

The Service Chief’s have been asking Hegseth to dial it back.

I suspect the Service Chiefs, if the ones that are left are competent as opposed to loyal, are asking Hegseth: What is it you want us to achieve - and, no, we don't want irrelevant answers such as "win biggly" - actual specific aims. Then let us get back to you with either an assesment that explains why it is not possible to achieve it or a few plans on how to go about achieving it. After that, get back to us with the plan you want executed (amongst the ones we propose - not your own invention) and get out of our way as we execute.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The US can most certainly win if it was to commit the forces needed and would not require the full invasion. However the public is not interested in another ground war and the IRGC know it. That leaves the option of arming anti-IRGC forces and help them where you can.

 

[ytz]

The US can most certainly win if it was to commit the forces needed and would not require the full invasion.

What exactly would that "win" even look like?

If it's all out regime change? Zero chance without a ground invasion.

That leaves the option of arming anti-IRGC forces and help them where you can.

They tried that. Did everybody just forget the early days where they talked about arming the Kurds and then the Iranians hit the Kurds really hard? Also, there's claims that the Kurds just kept the weapons they were supposed to pass on to the protesters.

The problem for the US, is that this isn't easy to do. The Turks will not allow the Kurds to be armed. And the majority ethnic group in Iran (Persians) fears fragmentation more than anything else. They will support the regime, if they think the alternative is some Balkanized collective of ethnic fiefdoms a la Afghanistan.

 

[PrairieFella]

The problem for the US, is that this isn't easy to do. The Turks will not allow the Kurds to be armed. And the majority ethnic group in Iran (Persians) fears fragmentation more than anything else. They will support the regime, if they think the alternative is some Balkanized collective of ethnic fiefdoms a la Afghanistan.

Its easy to forget any Persian resistance will be highly entrenched. Government be damned, Persians are an ethnic group that has been rooted to that land so deeply they will fight for it tooth and nail. Theyre educated. Theyre resourceful and have been for millenia. Thats a 3500 year civilization. If even 30% resist, that would make Afghanistan look like a walk in the park.

 

[KevinB]

What exactly would that "win" even look like?

If it's all out regime change? Zero chance without a ground invasion.



They tried that. Did everybody just forget the early days where they talked about arming the Kurds and then the Iranians hit the Kurds really hard? Also, there's claims that the Kurds just kept the weapons they were supposed to pass on to the protesters.

The problem for the US, is that this isn't easy to do. The Turks will not allow the Kurds to be armed. And the majority ethnic group in Iran (Persians) fears fragmentation more than anything else. They will support the regime, if they think the alternative is some Balkanized collective of ethnic fiefdoms a la Afghanistan.

Agreed. At this point one needs to put American boots on the ground — even if it’s limited to SOF and IC folks - to gain any credibility with anti-regime leaning Iranians.
And it will take time - as one can’t build an insurrection/insurgency overnight.

Iranians saw 30k plus agitators or freedom protesters ruthlessly massacred by the Regime and no one lifted a finger from the international community. They have also seen that America of the last 5-6 Presidential Administrations isn’t always a steadfast ally and has left several ethnic groups in a lurch.

So anything against the regime from within - even with external support- isn’t going to be fast at all.

 

[Gordon Dundas/]

Does anyone outside of psychiatric facilities actually believe US. Government these days when they announce they've got your back .

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Agreed. At this point one needs to put American boots on the ground — even if it’s limited to SOF and IC folks - to gain any credibility with anti-regime leaning Iranians.
And it will take time - as one can’t build an insurrection/insurgency overnight.

Iranians saw 30k plus agitators or freedom protesters ruthlessly massacred by the Regime and no one lifted a finger from the international community. They have also seen that America of the last 5-6 Presidential Administrations isn’t always a steadfast ally and has left several ethnic groups in a lurch.

So anything against the regime from within - even with external support- isn’t going to be fast at all.

If US Forces start taking or denying the islands to the IRGCC, that limits very much what they can do in the Strait. If you take the main island, you have a solid base for a anti-regime government to take on the roles and responsibilities of government.

The one thing Trump has done right is the economic and naval blockade. It's causing havoc in Iran, the Rial is in free fall, how many of the IRGC are going to remain loyal if they can't feed their families? Have the new anti-regime government offer amnesty to any IRGC member that does not have blood on their hands. That was one of the means the Brits took down the CT's, start peeling away the support onion.

 

[McG]

The issue is that he can deliver on them.
As you well know the US military can strike Kharg Island - by naval and/or air assets.

The bigger issue is the what then.

Your right. He could deliver a devastating strike on the island, achieve nothing of strategic influence, and then carry on in a worse position than now.

What he cannot deliver is a decisive blow.

 

[KevinB]

If US Forces start taking or denying the islands to the IRGCC, that limits very much what they can do in the Strait. If you take the main island, you have a solid base for an anti-regime government to take on the roles and responsibilities of government.

Main Island being Qeshm?
No one really knows how deeply the IRCG has tunneled all over it, other than extensively.

Exceptional opportunity to lose troops at a scale no western government would be willing to.
A direct overland invasion driving directly at Tehran is orders of magnitude safer than an opposed amphibious assault into a fortified mountainous island.

The one thing Trump has done right is the economic and naval blockade. It's causing havoc in Iran, the Rial is in free fall, how many of the IRGC are going to remain loyal if they can't feed their families?

There needs to be an option for them.
Iranians have put up with a lot more, with even more enemies during the Iran/Iraq war.

Have the new anti-regime government offer amnesty to any IRGC member that does not have blood on their hands.

The problem is you can’t find any senior ones like that. It’s more like the mob than anything else.

That was one of the means the Brits took down the CT's, start peeling away the support onion.

Much easier to do when you have so much in common with a rival. Ireland had common language, ethnicity, and religion was the only notable difference- but even then it was two sides of Christianity.

Iran has ethnicity, language, religion, foreign oppression (rightly or wrongly) as common threads.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

CT = Malaya. As for amnesty, it's the low level types you mostly want to decide that this is no longer their fight and they have better options.

There were riots there early this year and at one point the IRGC lost control of the city there to the protestors, I don't think they have as many fighter there as you might think. The western half of Qeshm is lightly populated, you can land there and work towards the city. Fresh water would be a factor for both the attacking force and defenders.

IRGC is approx 150,000, with 300,000 to 600,000 Basjic milita , it sounds like a lot, but Iran is big and they have to be spread out to maintain control of the population centres.

 

[brihard]

UKMTO reports a Very Large Crude Carrier has been hit by three projectiles in the Strait. Various Twitter boat nerds are identifying it as VLCC Sidr based on AIS data. Roughly two million barrels of oil capacity.

 

[Czech_pivo]

UKMTO reports a Very Large Crude Carrier has been hit by three projectiles in the Strait. Various Twitter boat nerds are identifying it as VLCC Sidr based on AIS data. Roughly two million barrels of oil capacity.

That’s going to ruin someone’s day.