Iran Super Thread- Merged

[KevinB]

CT = Malaya.

Ah, the Malay Emergency.
I wouldn’t use that as a good example for any COIN Op.
I don’t see a lot of parallels between it and Iran anyway.

As for amnesty, it's the low level types you mostly want to decide that this is no longer their fight and they have better options.

What options?
I understand what you’re trying for, but the issue is that currently there isn’t a lot that anyone can offer them.

There were riots there early this year and at one point the IRGC lost control of the city there to the protestors, I don't think they have as many fighter there as you might think.

They don’t need to have a lot of fighters on the Island to make it a mess.
Landing on it would expose a lot of soldiers and/or Marines.
Then supply them would be a logistical nightmare. Heck the IRGC could entirely unoppose the landing, solely choosing interdict supplies, and make it a massive disaster for any troops on the island.

The western half of Qeshm is lightly populated, you can land there and work towards the city. Fresh water would be a factor for both the attacking force and defenders.

Cities. They have a few, but beyond that the terrain is ugly. Defenders paradise some may say.
Fresh water I think has to go on the side of the native forces, as one would assume they have protected sources.

IRGC is approx 150,000, with 300,000 to 600,000 Basjic milita , it sounds like a lot, but Iran is big and they have to be spread out to maintain control of the population centres.

I think you are underestimating their size and integration into society.
I tend to beleive that the Wiki number of 190k IRGC is a tad low, but let’s ignore that for now.
The Basjic Militia is a tougher number to lockdown with OS info.
USG OS assessments put them from 400k-650k active, and multiple millions in inactive reserves.
Iran has claimed over 12.6m, additionally had over 20 all Female Battalions and at least 2 Brigades of all female forces.

*Now how the events of the past few years have affected the numbers of females, or just as importantly the IRGC’s willingness to activate them I cannot find any OS info.


Then that doesn’t even consider the Iranian Army.

Short answer is one needs to consider that Iran has an active ground force of approx 1m.
With the ability to at least double it, and most likely much more.


Invading Iran conventional is beyond stupid. No western nation will take the risk of the anticipated body count.

There is zero quick solution to Iran. Anyone looking to get a grand slam before an election cycle is entirely unqualified to get an opinion.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Iranian army is not trusted by the IRGC, so I don't see them being given the ammunition and fuel to be an effective fighting force. Likley they are going to be sent to border areas with minimal ammo and fuel to keep them away from the cities or confined to barracks.
The IRGC had to bring in foreigners to shoot the citizens, so I am guessing their militas are not as effective as they would like to claim. As for the female units, there was video about a month ago of checkpoint manned by women and driving around in technicals.

Going for the Islands is likely safer than driving through the borders and southern Iraq would not make a safe haven for your logistical hubs, once you hold the main island, you can saturate the coastal areas of Iran with FPV and fiber optic drones and bottle up most of their fleet of remaining small craft. I still suspect it's a safer option than driving through Iraq, then Iran.

My guess is if the regime does not fall from within, then eventually someone is going to have to invade. I don't see a return to the previous status quo after this. The west should really be standing up the "Free Persian Forces" and training/arming them.

 

[brihard]

My guess is if the regime does not fall from within, then eventually someone is going to have to invade. I don't see a return to the previous status quo after this. The west should really be standing up the "Free Persian Forces" and training/arming them.

Nobody has to invade. They could choose to if the benefit outweighs the cost, but odds of that are slim. The U.S. just doesn’t have the will to absorb a whole lot of young troops getting killed on Iranian soil. The first few publicized Iranian FPV drone videos of U.S. troops getting helplessly killed would seal the fate of the administration in the next few elections. Americans in the aggregate do not deem political objectives in Iran to worth many if any American lives. Any calls for invasion are by those wilfully blind to how much it would cost in soldiers’ lives.

 

[brihard]

Various sources reporting another separate VLCC, Senegal Prosperity, has also been hit by multiple projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. This ship’s similar in size and capacity to the previously reported struck VLCC Sidr.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-01/two-oil-supertankers-hit-by-projectiles-in-hormuz-marisks-says

The Strait of Hormuz appears to remain contested…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Various sources reporting another separate VLCC, Senegal Prosperity, has also been hit by multiple projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. This ship’s similar in size and capacity to the previously reported struck VLCC Sidr.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-01/two-oil-supertankers-hit-by-projectiles-in-hormuz-marisks-says

The Strait of Hormuz appears to remain contested…

Throwing a bit of egg on the US's face on Day 2 of the G20 Fin meeting.

This week could be a right nasty one for the US in the fin markets.

 

[brihard]

Throwing a bit of egg on the US's face on Day 2 of the G20 Fin meeting.

This week could be a right nasty one for the US in the fin markets.

Oh right, I forgot that’s going on right now.

 

[KevinB]

Oh right, I forgot that’s going on right now.

Iran did not.
Russia probably reminded them from a seat at that table…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Iran did not.
Russia probably reminded them from a seat at that table…

Sometimes I feel like we are watching a 100 car pileup on the I95 south in ultra slow motion, 1 car at a time and we are only 39 cars into the crash.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Nobody has to invade. They could choose to if the benefit outweighs the cost, but odds of that are slim. The U.S. just doesn’t have the will to absorb a whole lot of young troops getting killed on Iranian soil. The first few publicized Iranian FPV drone videos of U.S. troops getting helplessly killed would seal the fate of the administration in the next few elections. Americans in the aggregate do not deem political objectives in Iran to worth many if any American lives. Any calls for invasion are by those wilfully blind to how much it would cost in soldiers’ lives.

If the IRGC survives this, it's going to be nastier and more of an issue in the long term, so yes your long term choices will be invade or build up a real resistance force.

 

[KevinB]

If the IRGC survives this, it's going to be nastier and more of an issue in the long term, so yes your long term choices will be invade or build up a real resistance force.

I don’t think anyone disagrees with you.

The problem is the narrative for this war is entirely nonsensical and flips and flops depending on the day.

So at this time there is little appetite for anyone to be willing to pay the bill.

Ironically POTUS, could have got the G-7 together and started to build a coalition based on the facts, being able to fully isolate Iran, and provide protection for Gulf states against any Iranian reprisals.

 

[Genetk44]

I don’t think anyone disagrees with you.

The problem is the narrative for this war is entirely nonsensical and flips and flops depending on the day.

So at this time there is little appetite for anyone to be willing to pay the bill.

Ironically POTUS, could have got the G-7 together and started to build a coalition based on the facts, being able to fully isolate Iran, and provide protection for Gulf states against any Iranian reprisals.

Not this POTUS…..that type of cooperative coalition building is not part of his character nor does it fit with his worldview of his country or himself.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I don’t think anyone disagrees with you.

The problem is the narrative for this war is entirely nonsensical and flips and flops depending on the day.

So at this time there is little appetite for anyone to be willing to pay the bill.

Ironically POTUS, could have got the G-7 together and started to build a coalition based on the facts, being able to fully isolate Iran, and provide protection for Gulf states against any Iranian reprisals.

Any major invasion is likley 5 years away, when the IRGC close the strait for the 20th time or something like that. Trump has kicked over the apple cart and it is likely someone else will have to clean up the mess. Let us pray that an internal revolt brings them down before then.

 

[Genetk44]

Seems to me the Americans are faced with 3 choices, 4 if you include the non-option nuclear option.
1) Endless status quo low-intensity war as it has existed for the past 40-60 days
2) Some version of boots on the ground with the US bodies that the US public has no stomach for
3) Fold tents and sail away which this POTUS could never willingly do.

 

[QV]

So much negative narrative. But there are other observations too:

Life Inside Iran Is Becoming Intolerable | National Review

Given the economic pressures on the regime, something has to give.

www.nationalreview.com

"There was a perceptible hint in dispatches from CNN and the Wall Street Journal over the last two weeks that their journalists couldn’t believe their own reporting. Could it be that the president had accidentally backed into a strategy to throttle Iran into submission that’s actually working?"...

 

[KevinB]

Not this POTUS…..that type of cooperative coalition building is not part of his character nor does it fit with his worldview of his country or himself.

45 may have.
47 I agree not a chance.

Seems to me the Americans are faced with 3 choices, 4 if you include the non-option nuclear option.
1) Endless status quo low-intensity war as it has existed for the past 40-60 days
2) Some version of boots on the ground with the US bodies that the US public has no stomach for
3) Fold tents and sail away which this POTUS could never willingly do.

One can’t forget Israel gets a vote as well.

As for your #3, he setup the Afghan exit, and ignored Taliban breaching the agreement multiple times to hand the mess off to incoming President Biden.
Who then also ignore the Taliban breaching the accord.


If he believes he can succeed in blaming someone else (being the majority of his base accepts it) then I believe he would walk away in a heartbeat.

 

[Gordon Dundas/]

If he believes he can succeed in blaming someone else (being the majority of his base accepts it) then I believe he would walk away in a heartbeat.
[/QUOTE]
The disturbing thing I find is that I suspect the majority of his base would accept it.

 

[brihard]

So much negative narrative. But there are other observations too:

Life Inside Iran Is Becoming Intolerable | National Review

Given the economic pressures on the regime, something has to give.

www.nationalreview.com

"There was a perceptible hint in dispatches from CNN and the Wall Street Journal over the last two weeks that their journalists couldn’t believe their own reporting. Could it be that the president had accidentally backed into a strategy to throttle Iran into submission that’s actually working?"...

The negative narrative is based on an abundance of negative facts.

Is it possible that the Iranian regime is being ‘throttled’ in some hitherto unachievable way? Sure, it’s possible. Is it achieving the U.S.’s (nebulous, often shifting) strategic intent? Tough case to make.

And tankers still keep getting hit in the strait. That was not the case before the U.S. attacked.

 

[HavokFour]

And Russia being invited back to the G20 makes this a 3 way policy tug of war.

Bessent huddles with G20 to try to rally allies on Iran as tariffs strain ties

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants to rally the world's largest economies this week at a summit in Asheville, North Carolina.

apnews.com