Author Topic: Hurricane Harvey  (Read 10803 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online Old Sweat

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 212,640
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 7,658
Hurricane Harvey
« on: August 27, 2017, 21:30:18 »
By now, most, maybe all, of us have seen the shots from East Texas. Rather than hand wring, perhaps we could discuss the implications for North America of an area larger than Eastern Ontario and the population of the GTA being turned into a basket case with a recovery measured in years, not months. The area also is home to a large part of the gasoline refining capacity of the US and Canada.

I did think maybe we should pool our savings and corner the drywall market, but being serious for a moment, I suggest we discuss the economic and social repercussions as well as the lessons we could glean in case of a massive earthquake in BC.

Mods, if you would like to see this in another area, fill your boots, as if you needed my permission.

Offline mariomike

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 488,385
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,871
    • The job.
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2017, 21:37:32 »
I suggest we discuss the economic and social repercussions as well as the lessons we could glean in case of a massive earthquake in BC.

See also,

The Really Big One 
https://army.ca/forums/index.php?topic=119880.0
3 pages.
OP: "So, how are we doing with respect to earthquake preparedness CF-wise?
An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest."

Canada's Earthquakes: 'The Good, the Bad and the Ugly' 
http://army.ca/forums/index.php?topic=108615.0

The EARTHQUAKE ZONE 
http://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,92971.0/nowap.html

Six Things We Learned about Disaster Process Improvement 
https://army.ca/forums/index.php?topic=123147.0

2011 Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami 
https://army.ca/forums/index.php?topic=99824.0
4 pages.
Also discusses the potential impact of an earthquake on BC.

CF Domestic Disaster Relief Ops (merged)
https://army.ca/forums/index.php?topic=73744.50
5 pages.



« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 22:26:18 by mariomike »

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2017, 23:18:45 »
Here is a humorous video of texas law enforcement helping to move cattle to higher ground.

https://twitter.com/Harri8t

Not so humorous image of Houston.The ground in that part of Texas is clay.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 23:36:24 by tomahawk6 »

Online NavyShooter

    Boaty McBoatface!

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 180,241
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,914
  • Death from a Bar.....one shot, one Tequilla
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2017, 10:28:54 »
My brother lives north of Dallas, and I gather he's OK, not impacted much.

The former 'storm of the century' rating seems to be hitting harder and harder every time, with a much greater impact.

Is this a result of changes in how our society is organized?  Urbanization is a key factor (more people in a smaller area, means greater dependence on the infrastructure) and a second is the centralization or monopolization of manufacture. 

Dispersed industry and populations mean that a storm like this will have much less critical impact.  When we have one large refinery instead of four smaller ones, yes, there is efficiency gained, but the impact of production interruption is...significant.

Deep thoughts.

NS
Insert disclaimer statement here....

:panzer:

Offline Baden Guy

    Full Member.

  • Question everything. Learn something. Answer nothing.
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 45,412
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,825
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2017, 13:51:57 »
A few years ago I came back from League City, Tx, 25 miles south of Houston. We lived on the third floor of an apartment building raised on stilts, as are many buildings in the area. The building, located on the flood plain, overlooked Clear Lake which drained into Galveston Bay.
During the worst storm we experienced, the lake flooded half way up the wheels of my car and closed the one road out.
TV is now showing homes in town with water over half way up their houses.
League City is a lovely town and I feel for the terrible damage this hurricane is causing to the residents and the community.

Offline milnews.ca

  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Relic
  • *
  • 406,915
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 21,530
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2017, 17:34:59 »
... I did think maybe we should pool our savings and corner the drywall market ...
Along those lines, in spite of the softwood lumber fracas, Resolute Forest Products is being the bigger man, so to speak ...
Quote
Texans forced from their flooded homes by unprecedented water levels may get help rebuilding from a Canadian forestry company.

Seth Kursman, a vice president with Resolute Forest Products, has committed to sending a rail car full of lumber to Houston once the storm-battered city begins to recover from the devastation wrought by hurricane Harvey.

Watching footage from the storm-drenched city hit close to home for Kursman, who moved to Canada from Houston 15 years ago.

"I just can't imagine the devastation," he said, noting he saw images of his old neighbourhood, flooded, on the news. "I was really personally moved."

(...)

Wanting to help, he called the Montreal-based company's CEO, Richard Garneau, and suggested they prepare to send a truck filled with lumber to the beleaguered city once the flood waters subside. Resolute's main products are paper and pulp, Kursman said, but he thought lumber would be of more use to the struggling communities.

"He said 'Forget a truck! Send a rail car,'" Kursman said. "I mean, that's a lot of money worth of lumber."

The former Texan said he's already spoken with politicians in both Houston and the U.S. government who have expressed appreciation ...
Well done Resolute  :salute:
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2017, 17:59:01 »
Does anyone know if we've (Canada) been asked for help at this point?

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2017, 19:11:21 »
They wont know until after the storm is over. I do know that there is a need for small boats to help rescue those stranded. FEMA has activated 2 small boat rescue units [civilian] and more are going to come. The only way into many of these areas is by small boat or by air.

Online Old Sweat

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 212,640
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 7,658
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2017, 06:49:11 »
As an indication of things to come, a homeowner in the Ottawa area just got a building permit to rebuild his home that was devastated in the spring floods we experienced. Imagine the scale of the administrative burden in South Texas, and imagine all the contaminated rubble from the flooded buildings.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2017, 08:44:16 »
The Governor activated the entire Texas Army National Guard of 12000 to assist with rescue and cleanup.

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 194,295
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,670
  • Freespeecher
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2017, 12:45:07 »
An interesting story of how one company has prepared for the disaster. This sort of thinking is great if you have the resource base to do so. And the so called Cajun Navy is now out in force to assist in rescuing people, another bottom up response:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waffle-houses-hurricane-response-team-prepares-disaster-184844452.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

Quote
How Waffle House's hurricane response team prepares for disaster

One of the ways the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) measures hurricane damage is by the Waffle House Index. Waffle House, a popular 24-hour fast food chain in the Southeast, has a unique ability to operate solely on gas if necessary, so a closed Waffle House is often tantamount to disaster.

And while we won’t know yet how Hurricane Harvey will fare on the index, the attitude at Waffle Houses across Texas has been calm. The company’s staff has been preparing for months.

“We have our own special disaster teams and generators waiting to be shipped,” said one Waffle House employee in Galveston, Tex. “We’re open up until the city makes us close, probably later on tonight. As soon as it’s over we’ll be right back open.”

Waffle House’s resiliency is a great source of satisfaction for people. The Galveston employee told Yahoo Finance proudly, “When nothing else is open I’m going to tell you the Waffle House is open.”

Over the years, FEMA administrator Craig Fugate noticed this phenomenon following hurricane damage and developed the Waffle House Index. “Green” is full menu, “yellow” is partial menu, and “red” means there may be no Waffle House left.

“Waffle House stays on when the wind’s blowing—they never close,” Philip Strouse, FEMA’s Private Sector Liaison, told Yahoo Finance last year. “They have a small footprint, they’re easy, and if these little stores are going out when it only takes a few people to staff … that’s bad.”

Preparing ‘jump teams’

Hurricane preparation for many can be a scramble, but for Waffle House, it’s a game of chess with military-style strategy and execution. Before a storm hits, and even before hurricane season, the company makes storm checklists for each location, meets with local authorities, and educates new employees, though many have been through 15 hurricanes.

“We’ve already done all that,” Waffle House’s director of external affairs Pat Warner told Yahoo Finance. “Right now we’re getting jump teams ready.”

A Waffle House jump team consists of a small team of restaurant operators from outside the hurricane zone. These employees swoop in at the first possible moment after a storm to restore service and get things open. Typically after a storm, demand for food is high and functioning restaurants are in low supply, and things get extremely busy.

“There’s a jump team outside of Nashville ready to go on Sunday. Jump teams are [also] ready in Louisiana,” said Warner. “Then we can deploy from the main office some teams that may or may not go depending on severity.”

One of the reasons why these jump teams are the key to the chain’s success is because employees may not be able to work if they’re dealing with their own hurricane damage.

“It does help to bring operators from outside so it relieves [local employees] so they can focus on family,,” said Warner. “They don’t have to worry about their restaurant at the same time.”

During Hurricane Katrina, Warner said Waffle House worked beyond its restaurants to provide temporary lodging for its workers, putting tarps on employees’ roofs and shipping in hard-to-find essentials like diapers and formula.

The day of the impact

On a day like Friday, when a hurricane is coming, Warner said the Waffle House team gets its jump teams into position to prepare for the worst.

“We’re on call, loading up our command center,” he said. ”Whether we roll or not we don’t know; we want to get together just in case.”

Waffle House doesn’t really operate in Corpus Christi, where the hurricane is expected to hit the hardest, but the flood-prone Galveston and Houston areas are filled with around 20 Waffle Houses.

“We’re all waiting to see what he’s gonna do after he comes on shore,” Warner said, referring to Harvey. “Right now it looks like we may have a Category 3… so we’re anticipating some damage to the restaurants.”

What a Waffle House needs to open

Like any restaurant, Waffle House needs food, employees, a safe location, and energy. In the planning process before a hurricane, Waffle House works with food distributor U.S. Foods (USFD) to make sure its shelves are stocked and its locations are prepared for possible supply-chain issues. The jump teams supply the labor.

The other elements can be more tricky, but Waffle House’s planning accounts for construction teams that are ready to go in if there are significant structural damage and power issues.

“Is it structurally safe, that’s number one,” said Warner. “If there’s even a doubt we’re not gonna open. After that it’s what utilities are there. This is all in our storm checklist, and we review it all the time.”

Energy-wise, not that much is needed, though food safety and IT professionals in the field are available to be dispatched quickly to locations to get things safe and online.

“If we have gas for the grills, we can open,” said Warner. “We tailor the menu for what we can cook. Obviously, without electricity we’re not gonna have waffles, but we can bring in water and porta potties. If we don’t have electricity we can bring in generators. We’ve had some cases that before the generator came, we were there with candle light.”

Getting a restaurant operational requires working closely with various federal and local agencies, so Waffle House’s response team keeps in close contact with FEMA and others.

“It’s nice to have that support too because we need information,” said Warner. “When’s the power gonna come back on? What about the water? It’s good to get that info quick to the folks in the field.”

Practice makes perfect

Katrina, not surprisingly, was the biggest storm Waffle House has dealt with. While not as bad, last year’s Hurricane Matthew spanned five states up and down the I-95 corridor, a vast area in which to respond. “We had over 200 people on jump teams that were spread out,” said Warner.

After each storm, the company analyzes its own response to improve its disaster deployment. “We learn something from every storm,” said Warner. “The prep gets you there and each storm is gonna be different. The flooding, the damage — there’s a lot of variables, then afterwards we take a step back.”

All of the complexity of the response prompts a question: Why? Part of it is because they can. With a somewhat simple menu and needs, they can do things others can’t. But Warner noted that the reputation that led former FEMA administrator Craig Fugate to create the Waffle House Index as a disaster indicator has given them a level of pride. It has also pressured them to double down on their efforts.

“It’s a mixed blessing to be recognized,” said Warner. “Now we have to live up to it.”
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Retired AF Guy

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 36,835
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,572
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2017, 19:54:56 »
Interesting article over at Politico on how encouraging people to re-build on flood plains likely contributed to the disaster in Houston.
 
Quote
How Washington Made Harvey Worse

A federal insurance program made Harvey far more costly—and Congress could have known it was coming.

By MICHAEL GRUNWALD August 29, 2017

Hurricane Harvey was a disaster foretold.

Nearly two decades before the storm's historic assault on homes and businesses along the Gulf Coast of Texas this week, the National Wildlife Federation released a groundbreaking report about the United States government’s dysfunctional flood insurance program, demonstrating how it was making catastrophes worse by encouraging Americans to build and rebuild in flood-prone areas. The report, titled “Higher Ground,” crunched federal data to show that just 2 percent of the program’s insured properties were receiving 40 percent of its damage claims. The most egregious example was a home that had flooded 16 times in 18 years, netting its owners more than $800,000 even though it was valued at less than $115,000.

That home was located in Houston, along with more than half of America’s worst “repetitive loss properties” identified in the report. There was one other city with more repetitive losses overall, but Houston is where the federation went to announce its Higher Ground findings in July 1998, to try to build a national case for reform.

“Houston, we have a problem,” declared the report’s author, David Conrad. The repetitive losses from even modest floods, he warned, were a harbinger of a costly and potentially deadly future. “We haven’t seen the worst of this yet,” Conrad said.

Houston’s problem was runaway development in flood-prone areas, accelerated by heavily subsidized federal flood insurance. Now that Hurricane Harvey has turned Conrad’s warnings into reality, it’s worth noting that Houston’s problem was in part a Washington problem, a slow-motion disaster that was easy to predict but politically impossible to prevent. Congress often discusses fixing flood insurance to stop encouraging Americans to build in harm’s way, but the National Flood Insurance Program is still almost as dysfunctional as it was 19 years ago. It is now nearly $25 billion in the red, piling debt onto the national credit card. Meanwhile, cities like Houston—as well as New Orleans, which Higher Ground identified as the national leader in repetitive losses eight years before Hurricane Katrina—continue to sprawl into their vulnerable floodplains, aided by the availability of inexpensive federally supported insurance.

Hurricane Harvey is not the first costly flood to hit Houston since that 1998 report. In 2001, Tropical Storm Allison dumped more than two feet of rain on the city, causing about $5 billion in damages. Two relatively modest storms that hit Houston in 2015 and 2016—so small they didn't get names—did so much property damage they made the list of the 15 highest-priced floods in U.S. history. But Houston’s low-lying flatlands keep booming, as sprawling subdivisions and parking lots pave over the wetlands and pastures that used to soak up the area’s excess rainfall, which is how Houston managed to host three “500-year floods” in the past three years.

“This was inevitable,” says Conrad, who is now a consultant for the Association of State Floodplain Managers. “We never learn.”

Storms are natural events, but floods are usually man-made disasters. That’s because flood damage depends not only on how much water is involved, but on how many people and structures are in its path and how prior human intervention had affected that path. Government policies affect all three of those variables, which is one reason why “500-year floods”—which are supposed to have a 1-in-500 chance of occurring in a particular place in a particular year—are becoming so common.

So far, the political debate over Harvey has focused on climate change, which scientists believe is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme rain events, increasing the amount of water dumped on cities like Houston. Climate change almost certainly made Harvey marginally worse, giving the storm a boost through higher sea levels and warmer sea temperatures. And it’s true that federal flood policies have ignored climate. President Barack Obama tried to change that a bit, ordering federal agencies to account for rising seas and other flood risks when permitting infrastructure projects, but President Donald Trump revoked the order just last week.

But the climate is not changing fast enough to explain the dramatic spikes in disaster costs; all seven of the billion-dollar floods in American history have made landfall in the 21st century, and Harvey will be the eighth. Experts believe the main culprit is the explosive growth of low-lying riverine and coastal development, which has had the double effect of increasing floods (by replacing prairies and other natural sponges that hold water with pavement that deflects water) while moving more property into the path of those floods. An investigation last year by ProPublica and the Texas Tribune found that the Houston area’s impervious surfaces increased by 25 percent from 1996 to 2011, as thousands of new homes were built around its bayous. Houston is renowned for its anything-goes zoning rules, but the feds have also promoted those trends by providing extremely cheap insurance in high-risk areas.

Created in 1968, the National Flood Insurance Program was actually supposed to help prevent risky development. Its complex rules required new construction within designated 100-year floodplains to meet higher flood-proofing standards and required “substantially damaged” properties that received claims worth half their value to be relocated or elevated. But most of the program’s 100-year flood maps are woefully obsolete, relocation almost never happens, and Uncle Sam has continued to cut multiple checks for repetitive losses. A recent Pew Foundation study found that the Higher Ground problems have not been solved; about 1 percent of insured properties have sustained repetitive losses, accounting for more than 25 percent of the nation’s flood claims. One $69,000 home in Mississippi flooded 34 times in 32 years, producing $663,000 in payouts. The government routinely dishes out more in claims than it takes in through premiums, and the program has gradually drifted deeper and deeper into debt.

“It’s basically lather, rinse, repeat,” says Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense. “The fundamental responsibility of government is to protect people, but this program keeps encouraging people to build in harm’s way.”

Environmentalists, taxpayer groups and other reformers across the political spectrum have tried to rein in the program, pushing to raise premiums to better reflect flood risks and limit repetitive loss payments. But they have encountered ferocious pushback in Washington from real estate agents, homebuilders and other development interests, as well as politicians representing areas that tend to go underwater. They finally broke through in 2012, when Congress passed a rare bipartisan reform bill that would have jacked up premiums to some semblance of actuarially sound levels within a few years. But after an uproar from coastal and riverfront communities, Congress reversed itself in equally bipartisan fashion in 2014, so most premiums will rise much more gradually, and won’t reflect actual risks for as long as two decades.

Now Congress must reauthorize the program before it expires on September 30, and Congressman Jeb Hensarling, a Texas Republican who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, has proposed several reforms to rein it in. But his plan to limit subsidies for expensive repetitive-loss properties was in trouble before Harvey in the House, and his more ideological measures to expand private flood insurance face an uncertain future in the Senate. Reformers hope the shock of seeing America’s fourth-largest city underwater will at least help build support for more money for better floodplain mapping, as well as flood-proofing and relocation of the most vulnerable properties. But they recognize they’re swimming upstream.

“The floods have gotten worse, but the politics haven’t gotten better,” says Larry Larson, a senior policy director for the association of floodplain managers.

The floods really have gotten worse. Fourteen of America’s 15 most expensive disasters have come since Conrad released his Higher Ground report in 1998. In Hannibal, Missouri, the Mississippi River reached its 10-year flood stage in seven out of the eight years between 2008 and 2015, which would be a one-in-a-million coincidence if it were really a coincidence. Cities as diverse as Miami, St. Louis and Sacramento face a constant risk of becoming the next Houston or New Orleans. But Katrina was a man-made disaster, and Harvey looks like one, too. The next Big One probably will be, too.

“This isn’t the storm of the millennium,” Conrad says. “It’s going to happen again and again.”

Michael Grunwald is a senior staff writer for Politico Magazine.

Article Link
Years ago, fairy tales all began with, "Once upon a time." Now we know they all began with, "If I'm elected."

Carolyn Warner

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2017, 19:57:30 »
The National Guard is bringing in troops from other states to assist Texas authorities.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-pentagon-says-up-to-30-000-national-1504032239-htmlstory.html

Pentagon officials said Tuesday that National Guard assets are at full readiness to assist in the unfolding disaster in Texas wrought by Tropical Storm Harvey.

Maj. Gen. James C. Witham, director of domestic operations for the National Guard, told Pentagon reporters that up to 30,000 guardsmen as well as a U.S. naval amphibious assault ship could be called upon to help out in rescue efforts on the ground.

There are 30 National Guard helicopters flying in Texas in support of relief efforts surrounding the hurricane and subsequent tropical storm, with 24 more requested, he said.

Witham said that could increase to 100 helicopters in the days ahead as the Guard prepares for a sustained, phased response -- a departure from what the Guard has done in the past.

Offline mariomike

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 488,385
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,871
    • The job.
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2017, 11:07:25 »
People helping people,

Houston mosques turn into shelters to aid Harvey victims
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/houston-mosques-turn-shelters-aid-harvey-victims-article-1.3456479

Texas' Muslim community has welcomed residents affected by Hurricane Harvey into its mosques as the storm continues to bring rainfall in the southeast.

The Brand Lane Center in Stafford, Tex. is one of those mosques serving as a 24-hour refuge that has been providing people with hot food and clothes.

"When you give, you don't give only to your own family. You give to anybody who needs help," Khan said.

“We have truckloads of supplies coming,” Khan told Mic, adding that 50 doctors from the Muslim community were on call to help Harvey victims.


Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2017, 17:58:59 »
Canada has been asked for supplies, and has apparently responded in the affirmative.

https://twitter.com/RalphGoodale/status/903364870686560258
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 18:34:23 by jmt18325 »

Offline mariomike

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 488,385
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,871
    • The job.
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2017, 18:22:46 »
Does anyone know if we've (Canada) been asked for help at this point?

https://twitter.com/RalphGoodale/status/903364870686560258

Two Canada Task Force 1 ( CAN-TF1 Vancouver ) Heavy Urban Search and Rescue ( HUSAR ) members were sent to Hurricane Harvey.

They were invited by TX-TF1 to embed, observe, and further prepare CAN-TF1 for events of this scale.




Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2017, 18:31:46 »
Two Canada Task Force 1 ( CAN-TF1 Vancouver ) Heavy Urban Search and Rescue ( HUSAR ) members were sent to Hurricane Harvey.

They were invited by TX-TF1 to embed, observe, and further prepare CAN-TF1 for events of this scale.

Here's a story:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3705701/vancouver-fire-rescue-texas-hurricane-harvey/

Offline mariomike

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 488,385
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,871
    • The job.
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2017, 18:41:01 »
Here's a story:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3705701/vancouver-fire-rescue-texas-hurricane-harvey/

Two members to Hurricane Harvey.

CAN-TF1 deployed 46 members to Hurricane Katrina.

Good grief! Now they are talking about Hurricane Irma might be on the way to the Gulf Coast!



« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 19:07:45 by mariomike »

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2017, 19:24:53 »
Two members to Hurricane Harvey.

CAN-TF1 deployed 46 members to Hurricane Katrina.

According to the story, we haven't yet been asked to assist with personnel.  This is an observation mission only.  This actually seems like exactly the kind of thing we have the DART and 5 HUSARS for.  I'm sure we've offered that help at this point.

Offline mariomike

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 488,385
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,871
    • The job.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 19:38:09 by mariomike »

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2017, 19:38:14 »
That would be because there is little ( if any? ) Heavy Rescue involved. HUSAR

Do you think maybe a GSAR team would actually be more helpful?

Edit - I see what you're talking about now.  I thought it was going to be done better than ever before?
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 19:41:22 by jmt18325 »

Offline Jarnhamar

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 269,341
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,344
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2017, 19:59:41 »
This is interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index

Quote
The Waffle House Index is an informal metric used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to determine the effect of a storm and the likely scale of assistance required for disaster recovery.[1]

    "If you get there and the Waffle House is closed? That's really bad. That's when you go to work.

There are no wolves on Fenris

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2017, 21:04:12 »

jollyjacktar

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2017, 21:34:33 »
I am absolutely gobsmacked at some of the numbers.  I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

That and those nasty *** mats of fire ants.  They need a torching.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 12:38:44 by jollyjacktar »

Offline mariomike

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 488,385
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,871
    • The job.
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2017, 21:51:17 »
I am absolutely gorgeous smacked at some of the numbers.  I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

That and those nasty *** mats of fire ants.  They need a torching.

I don't know what the final death toll will be, I believe it is 33 now.

The natural disaster I always heard about as a child was Hurricane Hazel in 1954.

It killed up to 1,000 people.

It killed 81 people in Toronto alone, including five firemen. 35 people died on a single street, Raymore Drive.

« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 23:19:25 by mariomike »

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2017, 23:19:21 »
Houston is more or less dry according to the mayor.There may or may not be fuel shortages for awhile with the refineries shut down.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/houston-begins-assess-hurricane-harveys-trail-devastation-195004541--abc-news-topstories.html

Online Blackadder1916

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 163,320
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,827
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2017, 23:27:21 »
According to the story, we haven't yet been asked to assist with personnel.  This is an observation mission only.  This actually seems like exactly the kind of thing we have the DART and 5 HUSARS for.  I'm sure we've offered that help at this point.

I can't speak to the capabilities of the HUSARs because I have no experience with that aspect of the techniques of disaster response.  DART, on the other hand, is not what we use to respond to "exactly this kind of thing".  I won't get into the "political optics reasoning" for sending a bare minimum unit in response to a foreign disaster situation, but if the government does provide some form of aid, there will likely be some legitimate humanitarian feeling behind it.

In assessing what DART (as that stand alone organisation by itself) could provide to the Harvey affected area, first let's look at what DART is designed to do.
DART
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/operations-abroad-recurring/dart.page#details-panel-1412460546024-1

Quote
DART responsibilities

The primary responsibilities of the DART are:
•to stabilize the primary effects of the disaster in co-operation with national and regional governments and non-governmental agencies;
•to prevent the onset of secondary effects of the disaster; and
•to gain time for national and international humanitarian aid organizations to deploy to the affected area and prepare to deliver long-term recovery programs.

The DART is not designed to provide first response services, such as search and rescue or emergency trauma care. Instead, it can be useful where the capabilities of local governments and humanitarian agencies to provide primary health care and potable water are overstretched.

Typical DART tasks include:
•water purification;
•primary medical care; and
•engineering help.

While Harvey has definitely been a kick in the goolies to Texas specifically and the USA generally, by no stretch of the imagination has it rendered local, state or federal governments (or the massive private health system in Houston) incapable of providing minimum services.  It's not a third world country that was having trouble providing these services before the disaster event.

As some background, this is a description of the Canadian Military response to Katrina.  There are a few capabilities that we provided there that may be useful in this situation but none of them are included in the DART.
http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vol12/no3/doc/PDFeng/Scanlon-Steele-Hunsberger%20Page5462.pdf
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 23:30:44 by Blackadder1916 »
Whisky for the gentlemen that like it. And for the gentlemen that don't like it - Whisky.

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 194,295
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,670
  • Freespeecher
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2017, 23:30:10 »
Given that flooding is a pretty common disaster and that we not only see the results with Harvey, but have been dealing with it in places like Quebec and Calgary right here at home, isn't it about time there was a serious push to get amphibious vehicles like the Bronco or whatever else you might find in the catalogue so we have the tools to operate in these conditions?

How many more examples do we really need?
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2017, 23:41:40 »
I can't speak to the capabilities of the HUSARs because I have no experience with that aspect of the techniques of disaster response.  DART, on the other hand, is not what we use to respond to "exactly this kind of thing".  I won't get into the "political optics reasoning" for sending a bare minimum unit in response to a foreign disaster situation, but if the government does provide some form of aid, there will likely be some legitimate humanitarian feeling behind it.

In assessing what DART (as that stand alone organisation by itself) could provide to the Harvey affected area, first let's look at what DART is designed to do.
DART
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/operations-abroad-recurring/dart.page#details-panel-1412460546024-1

While Harvey has definitely been a kick in the goolies to Texas specifically and the USA generally, by no stretch of the imagination has it rendered local, state or federal governments (or the massive private health system in Houston) incapable of providing minimum services.  It's not a third world country that was having trouble providing these services before the disaster event.

As some background, this is a description of the Canadian Military response to Katrina.  There are a few capabilities that we provided there that may be useful in this situation but none of them are included in the DART.
http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vol12/no3/doc/PDFeng/Scanlon-Steele-Hunsberger%20Page5462.pdf

Thank's for the info - I was thinking about stuff like basic medical care and safe drinking water.  I guess I didn't think it through.

HUSARs time has pretty much passed at this point.

Online Blackadder1916

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 163,320
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,827
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #29 on: September 01, 2017, 01:05:02 »
Given that flooding is a pretty common disaster and that we not only see the results with Harvey, but have been dealing with it in places like Quebec and Calgary right here at home, isn't it about time there was a serious push to get amphibious vehicles like the Bronco or whatever else you might find in the catalogue so we have the tools to operate in these conditions?

How many more examples do we really need?

And what would we be doing with the "amphibious vehicles like the Bronco" while waiting for the wet and wild to occur?  There seems to be a tendency to try to always include a "having X capability in case of a disaster or humanitarian response" comment whenever proposing a piece of kit or to have these pieces of equipment sitting around, just in case.  It's very easy to get in that mindset, especially since it may convince the holders of the purse stings to loosen them a little because its not about kit designed to kill people.  However, we should be thinking the other way; request the equipment that is necessary to accomplish a military, war fighting mission.  If it is able to be adapted to a less violent situation, e.g. disaster response, all the better, but if not, so what.

I still remember the suggestion one of the evaluators made to me during the first Op Eval that I was involved in following commissioning.  The exercise scenario was a MAJAID in the far North (back then Edmonton also had a MAJAID responsibility) and the particular problem I was facing (as the HAO, my job was in Base Ops as the medical rep) was having enough bodies to do whatever lifting and toting of casualties/patients/bodies at the forward base (a community up North).  While there was a well developed ops plan that listed where such bodies came from (including CABC and 1CMBG units) the difficulty lay in the available airlift to get them there.  The number of seats assigned to the medical element just didn't provide room for what I thought was necessary (or what was listed as available in the ops plan).  The evaluator (a LCol MO), quietly said in my ear, "Don't worry about it, once you get on the ground, especially if it was a no duff situation, there will be volunteers galore from the locals who will want to help.  They will be even more willing to help if you're able to offer them a little payment, which you can.  As for vehicles to get around, how do you think the locals get around.  There's nothing wrong with beg, borrow or stealing, but we usually rent."
Whisky for the gentlemen that like it. And for the gentlemen that don't like it - Whisky.

Offline Fishbone Jones

    MSC -3925.

  • "Some people will only like you if you fit inside their box. Don't be afraid to shove that box up their ass."
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 268,442
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,286
    • Army.ca
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #30 on: September 01, 2017, 01:49:40 »
Sounds like things are coming together on that front.

Let's move onto a different aspect of the consequences. Are we prepared to deal with two, three, five or ten years of energy crisis? Can we survive the massive industrial slowdown or stops?

I know nothing about the state of our petroleum industry in Canada.

How fast can we ramp up production again. Have we got the logistics to transfer it?  If yes, can we transfer to a refinery that could handle our product?

Gas here, was $1.23/ litre @ 17:00 today. It was $2.63 USD/ US gal in Michigan. The state is dusting off their rationing and driving ban policies.

It's not going away soon. Have we got the capacity, us and the US, to keep our reserves up and keep North America solvent in petroleum at the levels we have presently? Would declaring it a national emergency get us self sufficient. How about a moderate price, whatever that would be, with say .75 per litre going directly to increasing petroleum infrastructure by the industry, only with non interfering oversight funded and staffed by existing government resources?

Do we risk, at our peril, not using our own cheaper product rather become totally subservient to OPEC, because, you know, they're so nice they won't try recoup all they've lost politically and  financially from us?

Should we not ramp up our coal plants etc to try take some load off petroleum? Yes we're not receiving any coal generated power, according to politicians, but I think the boilers are still staying at heated standby for emergency are they not?

I'll reserve my input until someone that knows the industry, from working within the industry can teach us (me) what we have to work with. I'm also not going to engage in any back and forth, until we at least, determine if we have the capacity for something of this magnitude. While we're dealing with hypotheticals, I'd rather not go down crazy hypotheticals that would lead us nowhere. So no Sheldon Cooper alternate universe string theory please.

Discuss?
Diversity includes adverse opinions, or it is not diversity.
Inclusive includes adverse opinions, or is not inclusive.

Offline ModlrMike

    : Riding time again... woohooo!

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 211,219
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,732
    • Canadian Association of Physician Assistants
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #31 on: September 01, 2017, 07:54:11 »
Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.
WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher,smarter, faster and better looking than most people.
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. (H.L. Mencken 1919)
Zero tolerance is the politics of the lazy. All it requires is that you do nothing and ban everything.

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #32 on: September 01, 2017, 10:16:24 »
Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.

It's certainly not profiting at the gas station level.  At 88.9, margins were non existent (1-2C a litre).  At the current price, fuel is costing about 1.00 for the stations.

Offline Brad Sallows

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 61,045
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,650
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #33 on: September 01, 2017, 13:25:58 »
>I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

A cube 20km each edge, if I got the arithmetic right.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 194,295
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,670
  • Freespeecher
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #34 on: September 01, 2017, 14:54:53 »
And what would we be doing with the "amphibious vehicles like the Bronco" while waiting for the wet and wild to occur?  There seems to be a tendency to try to always include a "having X capability in case of a disaster or humanitarian response" comment whenever proposing a piece of kit or to have these pieces of equipment sitting around, just in case.  It's very easy to get in that mindset, especially since it may convince the holders of the purse stings to loosen them a little because its not about kit designed to kill people.  However, we should be thinking the other way; request the equipment that is necessary to accomplish a military, war fighting mission.  If it is able to be adapted to a less violent situation, e.g. disaster response, all the better, but if not, so what.

Broncos can fulfill a multitude of military roles, both as fighting vehicles and logistics vehicles (and the other half of the argument is they can move over the 80% of Canadian territory which is not covered in improved roads, as well as in marginal terrain in any area of the world). So equipping the third companies of every light battalion with Broncos (like they were originally designed around being a BV-206 equipped company) minimally fulfills both the war fighting and "operations other than war" requirements.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Online Blackadder1916

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 163,320
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,827
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #35 on: September 01, 2017, 15:52:11 »
[
>I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

A cube 20km each edge, if I got the arithmetic right.

I think that the original figure may be off a little, from some of the reports I've seen, it was in the neighbourhood of 24.5 trillion "gallons" not tons.  That would put the calculation off by a factor of approximately 239 88 650 divide by, carry the 2. . . uhh, a whole shitload (239.65 US gallons in a short ton of water).  However, still a large block of water.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/30/harvey-has-unloaded-24-5-trillion-gallons-of-water-on-texas-and-louisiana/?utm_term=.a33c6b7f19ac
Whisky for the gentlemen that like it. And for the gentlemen that don't like it - Whisky.

Offline Bearpaw

  • Jr. Member
  • ***
  • 2,720
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 92
  • Politics is the womb from which war develops--Carl
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #36 on: September 01, 2017, 19:28:03 »
CNN(yesterday)----> 27 trillion USGal
1 cubic mile = 1.1 trillion USGal
thus 24.5 cubic miles of rain

1 cubic mile = (1.621km)^3 = 4.26 km^3

Thus 104.35 km^3 for rain water = cube of water 4.7km on each side

or

104.35 billion metric tons water

Bearpaw





Offline dapaterson

    Mostly Harmless.

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 428,985
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 16,081
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #37 on: September 01, 2017, 19:35:37 »
Or, to use a more commonly understood term, very wet.
This posting made in accordance with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, section 2(b):
Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms: freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication
http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/charter/1.html

Offline PuckChaser

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 912,475
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,009
    • Peacekeeper's Homepage
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2017, 20:01:21 »
From IFLScience: http://www.iflscience.com/environment/how-much-water-hurricane-harvey-dumping-houston/

Harvey has stalled over Houston so the rainfall that normally tracks over a large area is drenching a single city. By the time its over, there will be 3.8x the amount of rainfall than that of Katrina.... Absolutely insane.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2017, 19:25:24 »
Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth expressed a very kind message to the folks in Texas and Louisiana. :salute:

Quote
“I was deeply saddened to learn of the loss of life and the devastation following the recent terrible floods caused by Hurricane Harvey. Prince Philip and I send our sincere condolences to the victims of this disaster, to those who have lost loved ones, and to those who have seen their homes and property destroyed. My thoughts and prayers are with those affected.”
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 20:07:56 by tomahawk6 »

Offline Fishbone Jones

    MSC -3925.

  • "Some people will only like you if you fit inside their box. Don't be afraid to shove that box up their ass."
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 268,442
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,286
    • Army.ca
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #40 on: September 03, 2017, 04:06:14 »
No bs, real question .

Has she done this previously for US hurricanes?
Diversity includes adverse opinions, or it is not diversity.
Inclusive includes adverse opinions, or is not inclusive.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2017, 04:44:23 »

Offline Kat Stevens

    Quando omni flunkus moritati.

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 214,320
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,690
  • that's how we roll in redneck land
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #42 on: September 03, 2017, 13:17:34 »
Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.

Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.
Apparently, a "USUAL SUSPECT"

“In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility; but when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger; stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood, disguise fair nature with hard-favor'd rage.”

 Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats

Offline BeyondTheNow

  • Directing Staff
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • 51,420
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 893
  • Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2017, 14:08:02 »
An interesting article summing up the process of Harvey and the why's. 27 trillion gallons of rain...

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/harvey+finally+fizzles+look+what+made+nasty/14520149/story.html
"Stop worrying about getting back to who you were before it all went wrong. To heal is to understand that the person you've since become is the one who's most capable of doing whatever it is you were put here to do."~SR

Offline Larry Strong

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 226,041
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,676
  • 546 days from 0 to being King of the Castle
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2017, 14:12:21 »
Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.
 


Even worse, the Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina supplies fuel to the Western Canada Co-op's for their gas bars. Their prices jump just like everyone else.....anyone hear of massive flooding in Regina?


Cheers
larry
Proud sponsor of the Maple Leaf Legacy Project. http://www.mapleleaflegacy.ca

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2017, 14:26:48 »
As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste"  [lol:

Offline SeaKingTacco

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 137,095
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,109
  • Door Gunnery- The Sport of Kings!
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2017, 15:04:28 »
 


Even worse, the Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina supplies fuel to the Western Canada Co-op's for their gas bars. Their prices jump just like everyone else.....anyone hear of massive flooding in Regina?


Cheers
larry

The simple answer is that there is no law saying that the only place that Co-op can sell that fuel is Western Canada. If someone from the US picks up the phone and calls them saying that they want to buy a trainload of diesel and gasoline at a price point above what Co-op can get in Canada, guess where the fuel is going?

When that happens: instant shortage and price rise in Canada, too.

Either Freakonomics or SuperFreakonomics (I forget which book) did a piece on this a few years ago. Basically, nothing solves a shortage of something like high prices. It motivates new supply into the market, quickly. And it promotes the instant conservation of the scarce resource.

Offline Baden Guy

    Full Member.

  • Question everything. Learn something. Answer nothing.
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 45,412
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,825
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2017, 15:12:17 »
As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste"  [lol:

https://www.goodreads.com/.../717228-you-never-want-a-serious-crisis-to-go-to-wast...
Rahm Emanuel — 'You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.'

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2017, 15:16:14 »
Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.

It's not really all that strange, actually.  The stuff in the tank is far more important when you don't know how much new stuff is coming.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,362
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2017, 15:17:35 »
Its hard to separate the two.

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #50 on: September 03, 2017, 15:26:16 »
Please inform us all knowledgeable one.

The reality is, the world market, and the North American market in particular is integrated for products like this.  We also live in a world of just in time inventory management.  On top of that, you're dealing with a product that doesn't have a long shelf life.  Any disruption is going to cause a spike.  This is a big disruption, with some uncertainty built in.

Offline SeaKingTacco

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 137,095
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,109
  • Door Gunnery- The Sport of Kings!
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #51 on: September 03, 2017, 15:34:17 »
The reality is, the world market, and the North American market in particular is integrated for products like this.  We also live in a world of just in time inventory management.  On top of that, you're dealing with a product that doesn't have a long shelf life.  Any disruption is going to cause a spike.  This is a big disruption, with some uncertainty built in.

JMT is correct.

Offline George Wallace

  • Army.ca Fossil
  • *****
  • 435,945
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 31,572
  • Crewman
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #52 on: September 03, 2017, 16:00:56 »
JMT is correct.

At the same time, there are enough Reserves and refineries around North America, that they could easily ramp up production to cover that lost 20% in Texas. 
How much of Canadian oil products actually come from across the border?
DISCLAIMER: The opinions and arguments of George Wallace posted on this Site are solely those of George Wallace and not the opinion of Army.ca and are posted for information purposes only.
Unless so stated, they are reflective of my opinion -- and my opinion only, a right that I enjoy along with every other Canadian citizen.

Offline kratz

    Fall: Sweater Weather.

  • Float, Move, Fight
  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 253,713
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,184
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #53 on: September 03, 2017, 16:17:53 »
Using yesterday's average rates, the spike in Canadian markets is more than 25% higher than rates in the USA.

CPL $1.27 CAD * 3.78541 = $3.87 CAD per US Gallon * 1.24 currency conversion = $3.11 CPG USD = 25% more in Canada
CPG $2.34 USD / 3.78541 = $0.618153 USD per Litre / 1.24 currency conversion = $0.77 CPL CAD

1 L = 3.78541 US Gallon
$1 CAD = $1.24 USD
Quote from: Pipe *General Call*
"Tanning Stations on the flight deck"


Remember, this site is unofficial and privately owned. The site benefits from the presence of current members willing to answer questions.

Online Blackadder1916

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 163,320
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,827
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #54 on: September 03, 2017, 16:33:39 »
Using yesterday's average rates, the spike in Canadian markets is more than 25% higher than rates in the USA.


With only a cursory glance at your calculation (math makes my head hurt) it seems that your analysis points to a difference in average price at one point in time, not what the percentage of increase was.  I've always gone with the guesstimation that Canadian gas will always be about 30% higher priced than in the USA, so if the difference is now only 25%, then we are coming out ahead.
Whisky for the gentlemen that like it. And for the gentlemen that don't like it - Whisky.

Offline jmt18325

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 22,480
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,214
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #55 on: September 03, 2017, 16:55:24 »

Offline SeaKingTacco

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 137,095
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,109
  • Door Gunnery- The Sport of Kings!
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #56 on: September 03, 2017, 17:18:58 »
At the same time, there are enough Reserves and refineries around North America, that they could easily ramp up production to cover that lost 20% in Texas. 
How much of Canadian oil products actually come from across the border?

There is very little spare refining capacity in North America anymore. No new refineries have been built in years and many have been closed.

That said, apparently European and Middle Eastern refineries are ramping up to meet demand (and make some money).

Offline Scott

    - apparently an antagonist.

  • Likes fire and loud noises.
  • Chief of Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 198,490
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 7,888
  • El Scorcho Diablo
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #57 on: September 03, 2017, 17:21:43 »
Here is a bit dated info on imports vs exports.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/oil-sands/18086
Be nice for no reason.

Offline Larry Strong

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 226,041
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,676
  • 546 days from 0 to being King of the Castle
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #58 on: September 03, 2017, 18:32:03 »
This one might be opening at an opportune time......The Sturgeon refinery only will produce only low-sulfur diesel fuel, and not gasoline though......

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-30/canada-to-open-first-refinery-in-decades-in-glutted-fuel-market
Proud sponsor of the Maple Leaf Legacy Project. http://www.mapleleaflegacy.ca

Offline mariomike

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 488,385
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,871
    • The job.
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #59 on: September 03, 2017, 20:25:23 »
As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste" 

Former Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said that.

I found no source of President Obama himself saying it.

Winston Churchill supposedly coined it. Machiavelli may have been the originator.

Saw this on Twitter,

"You have a choice Houston, starve to death...or eat vegan."
(ENTIRE CITY OF HOUSTON TAKES A BIG SWIG OF WHISKY)
"I'll see you in hell."
https://pics.me.me/matt-oswalt-mattoswaltva-you-have-a-choice-houston-starve-to-27486616.png
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 23:11:14 by mariomike »

Offline Jarnhamar

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 269,341
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,344
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #60 on: September 07, 2017, 13:53:45 »
Found this interesting.

It's now a $20'000 fine if you're caught price gouging in Flordia.

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2017/09/05/price-gouging-hotline-effect-florida-because-irma/632280001/

Even a hotline set up to call and report people.
There are no wolves on Fenris

Offline dapaterson

    Mostly Harmless.

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 428,985
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 16,081
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #61 on: September 07, 2017, 14:00:13 »
Guess I need to raise prices to cover the fine...
This posting made in accordance with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, section 2(b):
Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms: freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication
http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/charter/1.html

Offline Jarnhamar

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 269,341
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,344
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #62 on: September 07, 2017, 14:07:46 »
Now if they could only stop the price gouging going on with gas up here.
There are no wolves on Fenris

Offline ModlrMike

    : Riding time again... woohooo!

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 211,219
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,732
    • Canadian Association of Physician Assistants
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #63 on: September 07, 2017, 17:34:02 »
This could go in a number of forums, but I'll put it here for now:



I'd like to believe that there's not this much stupid in the world, but every day someone proves me wrong.
WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher,smarter, faster and better looking than most people.
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. (H.L. Mencken 1919)
Zero tolerance is the politics of the lazy. All it requires is that you do nothing and ban everything.

Offline kratz

    Fall: Sweater Weather.

  • Float, Move, Fight
  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 253,713
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,184
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #64 on: September 07, 2017, 18:11:35 »
Sadly,

With the introduction of the internet, it's become far too easy to find "stupid" these days.  ::)
Quote from: Pipe *General Call*
"Tanning Stations on the flight deck"


Remember, this site is unofficial and privately owned. The site benefits from the presence of current members willing to answer questions.

Offline George Wallace

  • Army.ca Fossil
  • *****
  • 435,945
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 31,572
  • Crewman
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #65 on: September 07, 2017, 19:15:49 »
This could go in a number of forums, but I'll put it here for now:
I'd like to believe that there's not this much stupid in the world, but every day someone proves me wrong.

PMedMoe actually posted her website.  She really is that stupid.



Now this guy gets to see how KARMA works:

« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 19:26:35 by George Wallace »
DISCLAIMER: The opinions and arguments of George Wallace posted on this Site are solely those of George Wallace and not the opinion of Army.ca and are posted for information purposes only.
Unless so stated, they are reflective of my opinion -- and my opinion only, a right that I enjoy along with every other Canadian citizen.

Offline Loachman

  • Former Army Pilot in Drag
  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 208,777
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 7,226
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #66 on: September 07, 2017, 23:27:55 »
What was the mark, and in what medium, did Israelites apply to their doors to protect themselves during the night preceding their liberation from Egyptian slavery?[/not a Biblical scholar]

Perhaps something similar would help that last idiot.

Couldn't hurt...

Offline Fishbone Jones

    MSC -3925.

  • "Some people will only like you if you fit inside their box. Don't be afraid to shove that box up their ass."
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 268,442
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,286
    • Army.ca
Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #67 on: September 08, 2017, 12:34:40 »
Can we leave the idiots behind and put the thread back on track? This crap is ALL OVER the internet. If you want to hunt stupidity, go there, to a target rich environment.
Diversity includes adverse opinions, or it is not diversity.
Inclusive includes adverse opinions, or is not inclusive.