Author Topic: US VS G7  (Read 55642 times)

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Offline PuckChaser

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #350 on: July 04, 2018, 22:57:49 »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/04/us-pork-producers-brace-for-new-pork-tariffs-from-china-mexico.html
 In other news, Canada is set to over take the US as the largest supplier of pork to China.
How's that any different than the $100B CAD in oil and gas investments that have left Canada since the 2015 election? I don't think we should be throwing stones at a glass house when our government is torpedoing our economy just as badly.

Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #351 on: July 05, 2018, 00:46:34 »
How's that any different than the $100B CAD in oil and gas investments that have left Canada since the 2015 election? I don't think we should be throwing stones at a glass house when our government is torpedoing our economy just as badly.
The differences are vast,  but rather than derail this thread,  I'm going to stay on topic.

America is engaged in a trade war with its allies, I'm going to kept on that point.

I'm also going to repeatedly point out the folly in that policy.
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #352 on: July 05, 2018, 09:25:48 »
Tariffs are self-inflicted damage.  The steel tariffs alone seem to adversely affect roughly 10 times the number of jobs that they positively effect.
Got it. Thanks.  :nod:

Offline Thucydides

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #353 on: July 05, 2018, 15:24:09 »
How's that any different than the $100B CAD in oil and gas investments that have left Canada since the 2015 election? I don't think we should be throwing stones at a glass house when our government is torpedoing our economy just as badly.

The fundamental problem is the Liberals had no plan in 2015, went "all in" on ill conceived "Green" "Climate change" and "Carbon tax" initiatives for their rent seekers and with the weight of their initiatives crushing the economy, now have no strategic room to move with US tariffs and other trade initiatives in play. Being painted into a corner by your opponent is one thing (and given the gross disparity between our two economies, that outcome may have been inevitable anyway), but preemptively. painting yourself into a corner is hardly the mark of people who are planning ahead or are engaged in the process.

So my prediction stands: we are in deep soup until at least 2028 (President Trump is re elected in 2020, and the new Administration in 2024 will take at least one term to wind things down, unless the global situation is settling into a new alignment by that time as seems to be the President's plan).

The only out we might still have is if either opposition party simply looks at Canada's national interests, sees where they align with those of the US in the emerging world order and makes a sensible plan to implement it and beat the recession. This will require tremendous self control (remember the Liberals will run on a platform of "Trump is a big meanie", and so far the other political parties and organizations seem to have climbed aboard that train), as well as a really awesome selling job to the public to demonstrate how having a plan will work to their benefit.

You can colour me sceptical that such an epiphany is actually going to happen.....
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #354 on: July 05, 2018, 15:34:03 »
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/05/carney-tells-trump-escalation-of-trade-war-will-hurt-us-most

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Speaking hours before the world’s top two economies prepare to launch tariffs on one another’s imports, Mark Carney said further escalation would have serious and damaging consequences for global GDP. He cautioned that US growth could be hit by as much as 5%, compared with a slowdown for the rest of the world of up to half that amount.

The intervention from the head of a G7 central bank against another member of the club of wealthy nations marks one of the boldest criticisms levelled against the US president so far.

Speaking in Newcastle on Thursday, Carney said the current round of import tariffs from the US and retaliatory measures against the country, including spats with the EU, had already slowed the global economy.

Mark Carney always seemed like a pretty level headed guy, I doubt he would be this alarmist without good reason.

Seems clear thought that he thinks the USA is going to end up on the losing end of this. I hope he is right.
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #355 on: July 05, 2018, 21:59:37 »
….and the new Administration in 2024 will take at least one term to wind things down, unless the global situation is settling into a new alignment by that time as seems to be the President's plan.
I'm seriously curious what sort of "new alignment" you foresee.

Offline CBH99

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #356 on: July 06, 2018, 01:38:30 »
Global situation settling into a new alignment?  I'm thinking more & more that China will absolutely surpass the US as the global "go to" country for a variety of needs, whether it be economic, military, foreign development, etc.

China has one of the largest armed forces in the world, and isn't spread across the world the way the US is.  And I believe China's "goal" of having a blue water navy was met long ago, as the warships it's literally pumping out in volumes are coming out pretty equal technology-wise to European & American ships in many ways. 

China is one of the largest economies in the world, and does not link it's foreign aid money with a bunch of conditions, the way the US does.  If your a 3rd world government with little regard for ethics, doing business with China is less of a hassle than doing business with the US (ethics aside)

China has one of the largest consumer bases in the world.  Want to seek private investment?  China.  Want to sell a product?  China.  Want to market an entertainment or product to a country with 3x as many people as the US?  China.


India is too incompetent to compete, it's about as good at buying military equipment as we are.  Plus it has the 'burden' of a democratic government system, which gives China the advantage as they can act in the best interest of China without the constant interference of multiple government parties opposing.  India is even being muscled out of the Maldives by Chinese investment right now.  The local government has chosen not to renew land leases to the Indian government, and has instead welcomed a huge investment in condos, malls, infrastructure, airports, etc etc from the Chinese. 

New alignment...I'm thinking very much China.  The dragon isn't just crawling out of it's egg anymore, it's grown into a pretty dominating beast & it only continues to eat & get bigger.     :2c:
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #357 on: July 06, 2018, 02:23:23 »
Global situation settling into a new alignment?  I'm thinking more & more that China will absolutely surpass the US as the global "go to" country for a variety of needs, whether it be economic, military, foreign development, etc.

China has one of the largest armed forces in the world, and isn't spread across the world the way the US is.  And I believe China's "goal" of having a blue water navy was met long ago, as the warships it's literally pumping out in volumes are coming out pretty equal technology-wise to European & American ships in many ways. 

China is one of the largest economies in the world, and does not link it's foreign aid money with a bunch of conditions, the way the US does.  If your a 3rd world government with little regard for ethics, doing business with China is less of a hassle than doing business with the US (ethics aside)

China has one of the largest consumer bases in the world.  Want to seek private investment?  China.  Want to sell a product?  China.  Want to market an entertainment or product to a country with 3x as many people as the US?  China.


India is too incompetent to compete, it's about as good at buying military equipment as we are.  Plus it has the 'burden' of a democratic government system, which gives China the advantage as they can act in the best interest of China without the constant interference of multiple government parties opposing.  India is even being muscled out of the Maldives by Chinese investment right now.  The local government has chosen not to renew land leases to the Indian government, and has instead welcomed a huge investment in condos, malls, infrastructure, airports, etc etc from the Chinese. 

New alignment...I'm thinking very much China.  The dragon isn't just crawling out of it's egg anymore, it's grown into a pretty dominating beast & it only continues to eat & get bigger.     :2c:
Well said.

It is absolutely amazing to watch america cede its status in the world,  create voids being filled by china, bleeding influence,  prestige and shortly,  wealth.

America should be using this time to create stronger ties,  politically and economically to counter rising chinese strength and wealth,  instead it is doing the polar opposite,  almost pushing the world into chinas welcome,  non judgmental arms.

Damage like this is not easily undone,  and it is in my opinion, the act of a society that has grown arrogant about its status in the world. America,  Americans have not known a period of time where they have not been the premier power on the globe,  an empire with a web of treaties and alliances that allow it to project power wherever it pleases. Having always known this status,  they don't respect how easy it is for it all to slip away,  and how fast it can happen.

Especially since the fall of the USSR,  america could always count on there being no nation that could challenge its hegemony on world,  financial, and military affairs. But you are right,  for decades now,  china has been playing the long game,  careful to never fully upset the balance of power too quickly or forcefully. But now they can play the fast game,  for the world,  repulsed by the actions it does not understand,  appreciate, or are willing to go along with, are actively looking for ways to knock america down a peg.

And what better way than the global power in waiting,  china.

It would be all lot more interesting,  even entertaining,  if it were not so serious,  or depressing.
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Offline QV

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #358 on: July 06, 2018, 10:29:07 »
Just have to love that basic dictatorship, eh? If only the rest of us weren’t so damn democratic.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #359 on: July 06, 2018, 14:43:32 »
There is an irony in the progressive crowd that loves to love China (eg. Thomas Friedman) with its real authoritarianism, but can't stand Trump on the basis of his being "authoritarian" (which by definition he is not).

I have no more welcome for China as a big player than I did for the USSR.  The Chinese peoples and their essential values (except for a certain amount of chauvinism) are wonderful; their government is an abomination.  I too look forward to the US ending its current turmoil; but Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of the underlying cultural war.
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #360 on: July 06, 2018, 15:03:39 »
There is an irony in the progressive crowd that loves to love China (eg. Thomas Friedman) with its real authoritarianism, but can't stand Trump on the basis of his being "authoritarian" (which by definition he is not).

I have no more welcome for China as a big player than I did for the USSR.  The Chinese peoples and their essential values (except for a certain amount of chauvinism) are wonderful; their government is an abomination.  I too look forward to the US ending its current turmoil; but Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of the underlying cultural war.
I don't love China, but I can appreciate the game that their government is playing.

Same way I can shake my head at how the current US leadership is playing right into their hands.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #361 on: July 06, 2018, 16:50:35 »
Just have to love that basic dictatorship, eh? If only the rest of us weren’t so damn democratic.

“Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry.” ~ Winston Churchill

When they fall off, you'll be able to hear the screaming from here.
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #362 on: July 09, 2018, 12:35:18 »
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/30-billion-dollar-fund-eyed-trade-war-begins_us_5b3865ece4b08c3a8f6b10a9

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But Trump, who has attacked Harley-Davidson for plans to move some production to its overseas plants to avoid retaliatory European tariffs, is looking to save “my farmers” from the trade war he launched. Rural support was critical to his presidential victory. Unhappy farmers could spell trouble for midterm elections.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said last month at a Chicago convention that the Commodity Credit Corporation is a “tool” he’s considering to comply with Trump’s instructions to “craft a strategy to support our farmers against retaliatory tariffs. The program, which was started to help farmers during the Great Depression, allows the Agriculture Department to borrow as much as $30 billion from the U.S. Treasury that could be used to buy crops from farmers that would go unsold in a trade war.

Needing to save the farmers from the trade war he decided to begin, the american president now needs to pump out 34 billion in relief to those farmers.

Same economics at work here.
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #363 on: July 13, 2018, 08:54:50 »
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/mps-voice-outrage-at-repulsive-donald-trump-broadside-against-theresa-may/ar-AAA1259?li=AAggNb9

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Donald Trump’s incendiary newspaper interview on the eve of his first official visit to the UK, in which he took aim at Theresa May’s Brexit plans and suggested Boris Johnson would make a great prime minister, has been met with outrage by MPs, who have accused him of “disrespecting” the nation and suggested Theresa May should show him the door.


Trump, who is due to meet Theresa May for bilateral talks at her Chequers residence on Friday, was heavily critical of the Brexit deal and called into question any future UK-US trade deal. “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal,” he told the Sun.


Justin Trudeau in good company, seems like it's leader of host nation beware.
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Offline PPCLI Guy

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #364 on: July 13, 2018, 09:24:29 »
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/30-billion-dollar-fund-eyed-trade-war-begins_us_5b3865ece4b08c3a8f6b10a9

Needing to save the farmers from the trade war he decided to begin, the american president now needs to pump out 34 billion in relief to those farmers.

Same economics at work here.

So, government subsidies of business?  To compete with another nation?  Sounds unfair to me....

#cognitivedissonance
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #365 on: July 16, 2018, 17:46:24 »
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/trump-hits-back-at-canada-allies-and-china-for-retaliatory-tariffs-with-wto-complaint?video_autoplay=true

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The Trump administration is hitting back at a number of countries for what it considers unjustified retaliatory tariffs that were imposed as a response to the steel and aluminum duties the U.S. applied on its closest allies in the name of national security.

The U.S. Trade Representative said it launched formal challenges against China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Turkey at the World Trade Organization on Monday. They come in response to retaliatory measures taken by these countries on American-made products earlier this year.

“The actions taken by the President are wholly legitimate and fully justified as a matter of U.S. law and international trade rules. Instead of working with us to address a common problem, some of our trading partners have elected to respond with retaliatory tariffs designed to punish American workers, farmers and companies,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in an emailed statement.
Now that is rich.

The USA is going to the WTO saying that tariffs put on their goods is not legal.
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #366 on: July 16, 2018, 21:30:35 »
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/16/imf-trump-trade-war-global-economy-us-tariff-weo

Quote
Rising trade tensions between the United States and the rest of the world could cost the global economy $430bn (£324bn), with America “especially vulnerable” to an escalating tariff war, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Delivering a sharp rebuke for Donald Trump, the Washington-based organisation said the current threats made by the US and its trading partners risked lowering global growth by as much as 0.5% by 2020, or about $430bn in lost GDP worldwide.

Although all economies would suffer from further escalation, the US would find itself “as the focus of global retaliation” with a relatively higher share of its exports taxed in global markets. “It is therefore especially vulnerable,” the fund said.
For all the talk of the Canada being unable to win, how many people are talking about the Americans inability to win a trade war?
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #367 on: July 16, 2018, 21:40:38 »
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/americans-blast-absurd-auto-tariff-proposal-in-written-submissions-to-u-s-government?video_autoplay=true

Quote
Absurd.” “Ridiculous.” “Devastating.” “Outrageous.” “Enormously Stupid.”

From ordinary Americans to small factory owners and the big-three U.S. car makers, the message to the United States Commerce Department is clear: imposing a 25-per-cent tariff on cars imported from Canada and elsewhere for national security reasons would be a misguided, job-killer of a policy.

The overwhelming majority of more than 2,200 written submissions made to the department either criticize the auto-tariff idea President Donald Trump has floated, or plead for exemptions for items from used parts to antique cars.

Americans not blaming Canada for this trade war. Seems to be a common theme. Interesting.

It's as if they know whos fault this is exactly. The American Presidents fault.

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Offline Loachman

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #368 on: July 16, 2018, 21:48:06 »
I will tend to agree with that. I cannot see any sense in it at all. The interesting plot twist has yet to materialize and, this time, likely will not.

Anyway, I need groceries, and it grows late.

Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #369 on: July 19, 2018, 17:57:59 »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/19/politics/trade-war-dairy-farmers-utah/index.html

Quote
Times have been difficult for Gibson and dairy farmers across the country the past couple years. Dropping milk prices and a disappearing labor force have forced thousands of US dairy farms to close.
"We have 160 dairy farms in Utah right now," Gibson explained. "It's a very real possibility that by the end of this year, we could have 100."
With looming trade wars on the horizon after President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, Gibson fears foreign buyers of American milk will find other markets to buy from and never return. The administration has placed numerous tariffs on Chinese goods in recent months, with the latest round announced earlier this month affecting goods such as fruit and vegetables, handbags, refrigerators, rain jackets and baseball gloves.
"I hope that one morning President Trump's just going to wake up and send out that 3:30 in the morning tweet that says tariffs are gone," said Gibson. "But the problem I have is once he sends that tweet, are the buyers across this world going to come back to American agriculture? Or are they going to be so upset at us over this whole mess that we don't get our customers back?"

Salient point really.
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #370 on: July 19, 2018, 19:48:41 »
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-19/donald-trump-is-pushing-europe-into-asia-s-embrace

Quote
With friends like these, it’s wise to look around for some new ones.

Donald Trump has called the EU a “foe” and advised British prime minister Theresa May to sue the rest of the bloc over Brexit. The U.S. president has already levied tariffs on European steel, and is threatening to do the same on lots of other products, including cars. So it’s hardly a surprise that Europe’s leaders are turning eastward in search of new allies.

This week, the EU has signed a landmark trade deal with Japan, known as JEFTA, which will make it easier for European food producers to sell their products into Japan while further opening up European markets to Japanese carmakers. There was also a rapprochement with Beijing. For the first time since 2015, the yearly EU-China summit ended with a joint statement, as well as limited progress toward a bilateral investment treaty.
China EU, EU Japan, the TPP, CETA, a lot of trade deals happening without the USA being involved.

Influence definitely waning.
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Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #371 on: July 20, 2018, 12:53:30 »
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/07/20/trump-were-playing-with-the-banks-money-on-markets-gain-since-el.html

Quote
President Donald Trump said the stock market rally since his election victory gives him the opportunity to be more aggressive in his trade war with China and other countries.

“This is the time. You know the expression we’re playing with the bank’s money,” he told CNBC's Joe Kernen in a “Squawk Box” interview aired Friday.



A crying shame for everyone who isn't heavily invested in the stock market who, when they lose their jobs,  wage growth,  or the potential of work in the future.

Bur the president is correct, for the wealthy on wall street,  there is a bit of a cushion built up that can be sacrificed trying to win a global trade war.

Given his background, I can see why he would be concerned about those types.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #372 on: July 20, 2018, 12:55:30 »
Bur the president is correct, for the wealthy on wall street,  there is a bit of a cushion built up that can be sacrificed trying to win a global trade war.

Or, of course, anyone with a public service pension....
“To stand on the firing parapet and expose yourself to danger; to stand and fight a thousand miles from home when you're all alone and outnumbered and probably beaten; to spit on your hands and lower the pike; to stand fast over the body of Leonidas the King; to be rear guard at Kunu-Ri; to stand and be still to the Birkenhead Drill; these are not rational acts. They are often merely necessary.”
— Jerry Pournelle —

Offline Altair

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #373 on: July 20, 2018, 13:04:07 »
Or, of course, anyone with a public service pension....
True.

They can be counted as the "banks money" that the president is going on about.
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Offline CloudCover

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Re: US VS G7
« Reply #374 on: July 23, 2018, 11:22:08 »
Interesting statements in Bloomberg coming out of Japan about bilateral versus multi lateral trade:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-22/abe-s-lieutenant-pours-cold-water-on-bilateral-japan-u-s-fta

Top Japanese Official Has No Interest in Trade Deal With Just the U.S.

One of Japan’s top policy makers indicated the government will continue to resist U.S. efforts to create a bilateral free trade agreement between the two nations.

"Japan is not going to do anything with any country that harms the national interest," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga. "With FTA negotiations too, we’ll handle them in that way."

During a wide-ranging interview in Tokyo on Saturday, Suga also said he expects Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to stand for re-election in September as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. If he wins that contest, which appears likely, Abe could remain PM until 2021, making him the nation’s longest serving post-war premier.


Suga’s comments came as officials from the Group of 20 countries meeting in Argentina pushed back against the Trump administration, which has shunned multilateral agreements and embraced tariffs.

At the G-20, Finance Minister Taro Aso pressed U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to alleviate Japan’s concerns over trade, discussing U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as possible levies on car and auto part imports.

Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are expected to sit down for bilateral trade discussions later this month.

Suga said he knows the U.S. side is keenly interested in a bilateral trade deal, but Japan will continue to insist that the U.S. returning to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement is in the best interests of both countries. President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement during his first week in office.

... Move!! ...