Author Topic: A Deeply Fractured US  (Read 23301 times)

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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #50 on: June 03, 2020, 21:54:41 »
That election can't come soon enough.

I expect that Trump will win re-election. If he doesn't I might take up drink.  ;D

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #51 on: June 03, 2020, 21:58:29 »
Cheers!
Apparently, a "USUAL SUSPECT"

“In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility; but when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger; stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood, disguise fair nature with hard-favor'd rage.”

 Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats

Offline stellarpanther

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #52 on: June 03, 2020, 22:02:34 »
I expect that Trump will win re-election. If he doesn't I might take up drink.  ;D

If he wins re-election the rest of the world might take up drinking!

Offline mariomike

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #53 on: June 04, 2020, 09:25:37 »
The popular account is that Trump had protestors tear gassed,

Quote
June 4, 2020

AP FACT CHECK: Trump denies tear gas use despite evidence
https://apnews.com/2aa7979e6fb88948895407f127e5e5b6

“They didn’t use tear gas,” Trump said Wednesday on Fox News Radio. The U.S. Park Police denied using tear gas, yet acknowledged deploying a pepper compound, which the CDC and other scientific organizations list as one form of tear gas.

Authorities, who came from more than a half-dozen agencies besides the Park Police, set loose several wafting compounds, causing people to cough and gag as they scattered, their eyes red and streaming in some cases. They displayed the results of exposure to tear gas — tears, for example.






Offline Dimsum

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #54 on: June 04, 2020, 10:18:15 »
Here's what Trump said without the Fox filter:

 :blah:

Is there anyone who thought Trump might take the high road. ... Didn't think so.

Here's to you, General.  :cdnsalute:

I can almost see the US military conservatives actually doing the "two red button" meme right now. 
“If you run into an a-hole in the morning, you ran into an a-hole. If you run into a-holes all day, you're the a-hole.”

- Raylan Givens, Justified (cleaned up for content)

Offline Baden Guy

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #55 on: June 04, 2020, 11:15:13 »
"In the 2016 United States presidential election, ten members of the Electoral College voted or attempted to vote for a candidate different from whom they were pledged.[1] This movement, dubbed the Hamilton Electors, was co-founded by Micheal Baca of Colorado and Bret Chiafalo of Washington. The movement attempted to find 37 Republican electors willing to vote for a different Republican. Three of these votes were invalidated under the faithless elector laws of their respective states, and the elector either subsequently voted for the pledged candidate or was replaced by someone who did.[2][3][4] Although there had been a combined total of 155 instances of individual electors voting faithlessly prior to 2016 in over two centuries of previous US presidential elections,[5] 2016 was the first election in over a hundred years in which multiple electors worked to alter the result of the election in order to "vote their conscience for the good of America" in accordance with Alexander Hamilton's Federalist Paper No. 68.[6] Electors were subjected to public pressure, including death threats."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_electors_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

So to 'heck" with winning the popular vote. It's all about the Electoral college. :(

Offline QV

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #56 on: June 04, 2020, 11:35:06 »
"In the 2016 United States presidential election, ten members of the Electoral College voted or attempted to vote for a candidate different from whom they were pledged.[1] This movement, dubbed the Hamilton Electors, was co-founded by Micheal Baca of Colorado and Bret Chiafalo of Washington. The movement attempted to find 37 Republican electors willing to vote for a different Republican. Three of these votes were invalidated under the faithless elector laws of their respective states, and the elector either subsequently voted for the pledged candidate or was replaced by someone who did.[2][3][4] Although there had been a combined total of 155 instances of individual electors voting faithlessly prior to 2016 in over two centuries of previous US presidential elections,[5] 2016 was the first election in over a hundred years in which multiple electors worked to alter the result of the election in order to "vote their conscience for the good of America" in accordance with Alexander Hamilton's Federalist Paper No. 68.[6] Electors were subjected to public pressure, including death threats."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_electors_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

So to 'heck" with winning the popular vote. It's all about the Electoral college. :(

Is that a new thing?  Curious, how did the popular vote numbers land in Canada's last election? 

Offline mariomike

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #57 on: June 04, 2020, 12:41:37 »
So to 'heck" with winning the popular vote. It's all about the Electoral college. :(

He said what Republicans have been trying not to say for years. 

Quote
They had levels of voting, that if you ever agreed to it you'd never have a Republican elected in this country again.
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk02ZoyY69iMfhgplMQSLfLlFXC3jSg%3A1591287727048&ei=rx_ZXr7PAouFytMPt8S2oAI&q=%22They+had+levels+of+voting%2C+that+if+you+ever+agreed+to+it+you%27d+never+have+a+Republican+elected+in+this+country+again%22&oq=%22They+had+levels+of+voting%2C+that+if+you+ever+agreed+to+it+you%27d+never+have+a+Republican+elected+in+this+country+again%22&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQDDIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzIHCCMQ6gIQJzoCCAA6BggAEAcQHjoECCMQJ1C5aVj8tgNggccDaAJwAHgBgAGJAogBuA2SAQUwLjEuN5gBB6ABAaABAqoBB2d3cy13aXqwAQY&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwj-4tLdyOjpAhWLgnIEHTeiDSQQ4dUDCAs#spf=1591287788345

He is likely aware the Republicans have lost the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections.

Quote
Donald Trump once called the electoral college ‘a disaster for democracy.’ Now he says it’s ‘far better for the U.S.A.’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/donald-trump-once-called-the-electoral-college-a-disaster-for-democracy-now-he-says-its-far-better-for-the-usa/2019/03/20/dc038b76-4af7-11e9-93d0-64dbcf38ba41_story.html

The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2012








« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 13:07:55 by mariomike »

Offline Baz

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #58 on: June 04, 2020, 13:30:08 »
Is that a new thing?  Curious, how did the popular vote numbers land in Canada's last election?

Obviously you know the answer to that... but there is a difference between individual riding first past the post and the electoral college.  In a two party electoral college the only way that you can win without the popular vote is that some of the states votes are worth more than others.  Which then raises the question about who is actually being represented in the Federal system, the state or the people>

By the way, I'd actually like to reform the Canadian system... elect the upper house from a list based on popular vote percentage (ie 100 senators and for each percent of the vote the party gets one), govern from the upper house, and change the method of non-confidence (so you just don't continue voting out the government).  Maybe even make it a dynamic vote, ie you can change it whenever you want, so the people can actually easily remove the government.  The reasoning: the governing (upper) house would actually represent the country and not the regions, and the lower house could be allowed to consider issues regionally.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #59 on: June 04, 2020, 13:33:32 »
Almost every party prefers a system under which it would win consistently.

But some parties spend more time demanding revolutionary change after an election loss, while other parties spend more time navel gazing about which part of the electorate they failed to capture.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #60 on: June 04, 2020, 13:36:13 »
>In a two party electoral college the only way that you can win without the popular vote is that some of the states votes are worth more than others.

No.  You can win simply by having a more efficient vote distribution for the district electors.  Landslide (90%+ victories in single districts simply spike the popular vote count without adding any EC votes.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #61 on: June 04, 2020, 13:40:14 »
>but there is a difference between individual riding first past the post and the electoral college.

Not much of one.  They elect electors, who choose the president; we elect MPs, who effectively choose the PM (and can change their choice if they wish).  Aside from the fact that the US has state-wide electors, both systems are rooted in the election of "electors" in districts/ridings.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #62 on: June 04, 2020, 14:45:47 »
>I expect that Trump will win re-election.

That is looking a lot less likely.  The betting odds shown at RCP now favour Biden, and the RCP National Average has favoured Biden for a while.

This protest crisis could have been a golden opportunity for a savvy campaigner to admonish states and cities to re-establish control while pledging federal resources and making uplifting noises about bringing all Americans into the circle of privilege and protecting the essential liberties of all.  But Trump has put his foot in it as usual, and boosted it so strongly into an election issue that the usual secondary effect will apply: the spotlight has moved away from the people responsible for the problems and it will be hard to move it back; it is now all about Trump.

On 8 Nov 2016, Nate Silver's odds of Trump becoming president were 28.6%.  The US got the (approximately) 3-out-of-10 result.  No-one should be complacent even if Trump's odds are sliding down to 40%.  A strong economic recovery will pitch his odds up.  An absence of severe consequences for relaxing COVID-related mobility restrictions may pitch his odds up.  A "long hot summer" in which Democrats make the mistake of standing with the hooligans as well as the protestors, and Trump manages however ham-fistedly to look like the man for order, may pitch his odds up.  A weak performance by Joe Biden will pitch Trump's odds up.

Conversely, if Biden picks a compelling VP candidate, Trump's odds might slide catastrophically.  (There is an understandable, if odd, discussion going around that Biden could be used as some sort of breaching device for a person Democrats would really like to succeed Biden as president.)
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Baz

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #63 on: June 04, 2020, 14:49:19 »
>In a two party electoral college the only way that you can win without the popular vote is that some of the states votes are worth more than others.

No.  You can win simply by having a more efficient vote distribution for the district electors.  Landslide (90%+ victories in single districts simply spike the popular vote count without adding any EC votes.

Agreed.  I over simplified.  But the fact is there are areas where a single vote is worth more than in other's inside the electoral college. California has three times the population per electoral vote than Wyoming. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#/media/File:US_2010_Census_State_Population_Per_Electoral_Vote.png

>but there is a difference between individual riding first past the post and the electoral college.

Not much of one.  They elect electors, who choose the president; we elect MPs, who effectively choose the PM (and can change their choice if they wish).  Aside from the fact that the US has state-wide electors, both systems are rooted in the election of "electors" in districts/ridings.

Except I referred directly to the electoral college.  It is in effect a two party system. If votes were distributed equally then it would statistically represent the entire population, but they aren't.

And yes, that is also an oversimplification as the riding size is not consistent in Canada (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canadian_federal_ridings).  The amin skew being over representation of the Atlantic and the North.

Edited to add: which comes back to the other question I asked, is it the states, the population or some of each being represented.  As the senate is two per state it seems the intent was for the senate to represent the state, and the house the people, but since we can't trust the people *too* much we'll have the electoral college as a somber second look.

Oh, and add into that that the deep reluctance of states to move away from winner takes all, which are more impacting for larger states...
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 15:03:52 by Baz »

Offline jacksparrow

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #64 on: June 04, 2020, 16:13:05 »
It's fair to say that some Americans aren't under any illusions that Trump might win again ( a travesty on its own). However, there are a lot of people who are hoping he is a one and done. It should be interesting to see what role the 40 million plus unemployment figures, COVID-19 deaths and the handling of the protests plays come the election.

The only line at the end of the tunnel could be looking past 2024. He can't run for a 3rd term, and by then he will be older, more angrier and start to contemplate what life is going to be like the day he wakes up with no power to his name i.e. using executive orders.

Melania might see the light to and do what Ivana Trump did and walk away with a huge pay day.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #65 on: June 04, 2020, 16:18:01 »
>But the fact is there are areas where a single vote is worth more than in other's inside the electoral college.

Yes.  And of course the elephant, which is the 2-per-state regardless of population.  But with all the attention on the popular vote, it's also worth noting that Clinton's popular vote margin was bigger in CA than her net margin for all of the US.  CA is heavily Democratic, but it doesn't mean the rest of the country is.

Add: Wyoming has 1 district and a population a little under 580,000; California has 53 districts and about 30.5 million people (roughly 575,000 people per district).  We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the skew is because of the 2-per-state.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 16:27:34 by Brad Sallows »
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #66 on: June 04, 2020, 16:21:22 »
I just find it amusing that people in Canada were bleating repetitively about Trump not winning the popular vote.  Then our minority government gets elected and strangely the popular vote is a non issue.
Apparently, a "USUAL SUSPECT"

“In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility; but when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger; stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood, disguise fair nature with hard-favor'd rage.”

 Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #67 on: June 04, 2020, 16:37:24 »
Same reason the provincial NDP in BC get cold feet about reform.  They can occasionally win a majority under FPTP; under anything else, they probably never will again.  They'd rather have a few chances to pursue their aims without have to compromise with a fractional party.

And, as repeated noted, the LPC probably still has the most efficient distribution of votes among federal parties.  A transferable vote would benefit them the same way "anybody-but-conservative" does, but a proportional scheme would not.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline mariomike

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #68 on: June 04, 2020, 16:40:39 »
I just find it amusing that people in Canada were bleating repetitively about Trump not winning the popular vote.  Then our minority government gets elected and strangely the popular vote is a non issue.

Should make for some interesting "bleating repetitively" in Canadian Politics if / when Canada Team Red or Canada Team Blue loses the popular vote in six out of the last seven consecutive federal elections.

Until then Canadian Politics will have to settle for the repetitive barrage of hilarious blackface / brownface memes.  :)



Offline Baz

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #69 on: June 04, 2020, 16:42:38 »
And of course the elephant, which is the 2-per-state regardless of population.

Not for the electoral college.  It is the total of senators plus representatives.  So Wyoming is 2 + 1; California is 53 + 1.

CA is heavily Democratic, but it doesn't mean the rest of the country is.

Which is back to my question: does the electoral college represent the people or the state?

Offline jacksparrow

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #70 on: June 04, 2020, 16:49:23 »
Mr Baz...here is one way to look at it and a potential flaw of the electoral college

A President would no longer be elected by the collective will of the fifty states. Small states like Delaware might be wholly ignored. Candidates would tend to campaign in urban areas, no longer seeking to “win statewide.” This might alienate millions in small towns and rural states such as Iowa, Wyoming, and Alaska



Which is back to my question: does the electoral college represent the people or the state?

Offline mariomike

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #71 on: June 04, 2020, 17:18:30 »
The entire 82d is available to assist civil authorities.

Quote
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN23B35N

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Several hundred active-duty troops from the 82nd Airborne Division who were sent to the Washington D.C. area to potentially respond to civil unrest are expected to start heading back to their home base in North Carolina, a U.S. official said on Thursday.




Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #72 on: June 04, 2020, 17:29:37 »
Looters don't appear to like robbing stores where the store owners have guns.

https://warisboring.com/as-the-country-burns-americans-are-embracing-their-inner-roof-koreans/
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #73 on: June 04, 2020, 17:56:59 »
>It is the total of senators plus representatives.

Yes, by 2-per-state I meant because of senators.  A nit: CA is 53+2.

>does the electoral college represent the people or the state?

Both, designed (as noted above) to secure the consent of small states to enter into a federation of equals.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Baz

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Re: A Deeply Fractured US
« Reply #74 on: June 04, 2020, 19:21:15 »
Mr Baz...here is one way to look at it and a potential flaw of the electoral college

A President would no longer be elected by the collective will of the fifty states. Small states like Delaware might be wholly ignored. Candidates would tend to campaign in urban areas, no longer seeking to “win statewide.” This might alienate millions in small towns and rural states such as Iowa, Wyoming, and Alaska

OK... but could the argument be made that those in the inner cities are already alienated?