Author Topic: Venezuela Superthread- Merged  (Read 83289 times)

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Offline Altair

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #275 on: August 03, 2017, 12:49:43 »
We can set aside more resources to securing our borders against potential terrorist and criminal threats spilling out of unstable South American countries and Mexico.

Our border? As in the one with the USA?

I trust the USA would be able to filter out most of what you're talking about from reaching the canadian border, and I trust the CBSA to get whatever the Americans miss. Don't see much of a CAF role there.
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We can prepare for humanitarian relief missions in these areas if the situation collapses.
Reasonable, but it depends on how the situation goes down. If it turns into a civil war,  and Maduro still has control of the Army, there isn't much I can see Canada doing. Maybe set up in neighboring nations, if they would have us.
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We could potentially secure the area and set up things like the Strategic Advisory Team which we had in Afghanistan to essentially mentor and instruct any new government in how to conduct business to Western standards
Again, it depends on how the situation shapes out. If Maduro goes out peacefully, sure, I can see that, if he goes out fighting I don't see that happening, if Maduro manages to hold on no way, if it's complete and total anarchy like Somalia I would say no. How many eventualities do we need to plan for?
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We might even have to contemplate securing oil infrastructure in the case of Venezuela ITO prevent environmental disasters.
Also depends on how the situation on the ground shapes out.
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And that is just off the top of my head.
While I agree that there could be a role for Canada and the CAF to play, I think it depends on how things on the ground play out.

Venezuela could just turn into a full fledged dictatorship with little turmoil. It could turn into a civil war. It could peacefully embrace democracy. It could violently embrace democracy. It could violently embrace dictatorship. Any of these can happen now, or ten years from now.

I just don't see what Canada can do at this point given the instability going on in Venezuela.
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #276 on: August 03, 2017, 17:24:24 »
Having traveled a bit there, I can tell you that outside of the main highway system (decent), roads deteriorate quickly and get worse during the rainy season. You have multiple different terrain and ecosystems, including a sabana that becomes a flooded region for part of the year, rolling grasslands in the Gran Sabana, almost Alpine like in the SW, Jungle, tropical Forests, arid regions and dry coastal hills. It will be quite defensible.   

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #277 on: October 11, 2017, 11:40:36 »
Continuing economic collapse in Venezuela:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/imf-sees-venezuelan-inflation-rate-rising-beyond-2-300-in-2018

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IMF Says Venezuela's Inflation Rate May Rise Beyond 2,300% in 2018
By Patricia Laya  and Catarina Saraiva
October 10, 2017 at 09:00:00 EDT
Next year’s price estimate increased from a previous 2,069%
GDP estimates for 2017, 2018 revised down to 12% and 6%

Venezuela’s triple-digit annual inflation rate is set to jump to more than 2,300 percent in 2018, the highest estimate for any country tracked by the International Monetary Fund.

An intensifying political crisis that’s spiraled since 2014 has weighed heavily on economic activity. Gross domestic product is expected to contract 6 percent next year, after shrinking an estimated 12 percent in 2017, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday.

While Venezuela’s central bank stopped publishing inflation data in December 2015, the IMF argues the country’s consumer prices are estimated to leap 2,349.3 percent in 2018, the highest in their estimates, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 44 percent. As oil production declines and uncertainty increases, unemployment is forecast to increase to about 30 percent in 2018, also the highest and followed by South Africa’s 28 percent and Greece’s 21 percent.

The Bolivarian Republic isn’t current with most of its key economic statistics, leaving economists scant data to crunch. Before Venezuela’s new legislative super body took over the functions of the country’s only remaining opposition-run institution this year, the sidelined National Assembly had started publishing its own inflation index due to the lack of official data. Bloomberg’s Cafe Con Leche Index puts the annual rate at 650 percent.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.