Author Topic: The Next Conservative Leader  (Read 188906 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #75 on: January 29, 2014, 09:28:36 »
And Éric Grenier, whose polls, at ThreeHundredEight.com, I often cite, affirms the Hill Times' view in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/peter-mackay-the-favourite-to-replace-harper-polls-show/article16548975/#dashboard/follows/
Quote


Peter MacKay the favourite to replace Harper, polls show

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Éric Grenier
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Jan. 29 2014

Recent polls suggest that Justice Minister Peter MacKay is the frontrunner to replace Prime Minister Stephen Harper as Conservative leader. If recent history is any indication, that is not a strong indication that he ever will.

Two polls conducted in mid-January by Abacus Data and Forum Research both indicated that Mr. MacKay was the preferred candidate among Canadians and Conservative supporters to take Mr. Harper’s spot should the Prime Minister ever resign. The Abacus poll pegged him as the choice of 24 per cent of Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in 2011, putting him ahead of Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall (13 per cent), Employment minister Jason Kenney (10 per cent), former cabinet minister Jim Prentice (7 per cent) and Industry Minister James Moore (2 per cent). Of note, however, is that 44 per cent of those polled selected “none of the above.”

(For more analysis and numbers, check out our political polls page.)

The survey by Forum Research only asked whether Canadians and Conservative voters approved or disapproved of some of the contenders. Again Mr. MacKay, the last leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, topped the list with 26 per cent approval nationwide and 53 per cent approval among Tories. At 36 per cent, he had the lowest “don’t know” level of any of the listed contenders.

Among Conservatives, Mr. MacKay’s approval rating was higher than Mr. Kenney’s (38 per cent), Mr. Wall’s (26 per cent), Mr. Prentice’s (23 per cent), and Mr. Moore’s (16 per cent), as well as the other listed contenders: Foreign Minister John Baird (45 per cent), Treasury Board President Tony Clement (32 per cent) and Minister of State Maxime Bernier (16 per cent). Only Mr. Bernier had a disapproval rating among Conservatives that was higher than his approval rating.

Abacus conducted its survey with an online panel from Jan. 14 to 18, interviewing 633 Conservative voters. Online panels don’t have a probabilistic margin of error. Forum conducted its poll via interactive voice response from Jan. 16 to 17, surveying 1,779 Canadians and 487 Conservative voters. Forum claims a margin of error of plus or minus 2 per cent for their entire sample.

Perennial favourite

In fact, this is not the first time that Mr. MacKay has been registered as the favourite to replace Stephen Harper. Mr. MacKay led a poll conducted by SES Research (now Nanos Research) in November 2005 listing potential replacements for the Conservative leader (he beat out former Ontario premier Mike Harris in the survey).

It would seem, then, that Peter MacKay would be the frontrunner if a Conservative leadership race is called, as he seemingly has the most support among Conservatives and would be best able to bring non-Conservatives into the Tory fold. But leading in a hypothetical leadership race has not always been a very good omen in the past, particularly in a crowded field.

...but do the polls matter?

Polls conducted concerning who might replace Paul Martin as Liberal leader are a particularly good example. The November 2005 survey by SES Research pegged former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna as the favourite among Liberal supporters for the job at 28 per cent, putting him well ahead of former deputy prime minister John Manley (13 per cent). Author Michael Ignatieff placed well behind with just 4 per cent support. Mr. Martin’s actual replacement, former environment minister Stéphane Dion, was not even listed.

A poll conducted by Ipsos Reid in January 2006, just before the federal election occurred, asked who should replace Mr. Martin if he lost. Mr. McKenna was again the favourite, followed closely by Brian Tobin and with Mr. Ignatieff low on the list. Again, Mr. Dion was not listed.

A February 2006 poll conducted by SES Research had a more clear picture of who would be likely to run, and suggested that Ken Dryden was the favourite to replace Mr. Martin among all Canadians. Bob Rae and Mr. Ignatieff were not far behind. But again Mr. Dion was left off the list.

In 2008, there was little time between Mr. Dion’s resignation as Liberal leader and his replacement by Mr. Ignatieff, but in the brief interim Ipsos Reid found that new MP Justin Trudeau was Canadians’ favourite for the job, narrowly edging out Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. McKenna. Among Liberals, however, Mr. Trudeau placed third.

Fewer contenders, better polls

When there are fewer quality contenders in a hypothetical leadership race, the polls have been more prescient. Polls conducted by Ipsos Reid in 2001 and 2002 showed that Paul Martin had the highest ratings among those likely to run for Jean Chrétien’s job, beating out contenders like John Manley or Allan Rock. And a poll conducted in June 2012 by the firm showed Mr. Trudeau as having markedly better numbers than Mr. Rae among potential candidates to take over the party.

Polls gauging a future, hypothetical leadership race do contain useful information. But they are far from a crystal ball. Many of the names listed in these polls never ran for the leadership of their respective parties, which will undoubtedly be the case with the two surveys by Forum and Abacus. However, they do show that if Mr. MacKay ever did run in a future leadership race, he would be a serious contender. They do not show that he would win it. Indeed, considering the outcome of the 2006 Liberal leadership race, the next leader of the Conservative Party may not yet be on anyone’s radar. Fitting, perhaps, since the next leadership race could very well be held many years from now.

Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com. He is the author of the forthcoming e-book Tapping the Pulse[/i], about political polling in 2013.[/i]


Mr MacKay won a significant technical victory, over the Reform wing of the CPC, at the last Party Convention in Calgary. Many Reformers wanted a delegation vote to be 'weighted' by its population (something that would have favoured e.g. Alberta constituencies); most of the Progressive Conservatives wanted 'equal' weight, regardless of constituency size (something that favours Atlantic Canadian and Quebec constituencies); the PCs won.

That being said I'm not sure he can defeat a united right wing challenge and I still think Jim Prentice has enormous strength in all wings of the party ... but that may be wishful thinking, the triumph of hope over experience.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline George Wallace

  • Army.ca Fossil
  • *****
  • 436,375
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 31,578
  • Crewman
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #76 on: January 29, 2014, 09:35:38 »
I admit that Peter MacKay is a favourite of mine, and a more charismatic personality than Stephen Harper, but he has not gone through the last decade or two without his own controversy's.  We are in for yet another case where we will be left with not the best, but the lesser of several evils, to choose from.

Such is our Canadian political atmosphere.
DISCLAIMER: The opinions and arguments of George Wallace posted on this Site are solely those of George Wallace and not the opinion of Army.ca and are posted for information purposes only.
Unless so stated, they are reflective of my opinion -- and my opinion only, a right that I enjoy along with every other Canadian citizen.

Offline Remius

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 97,160
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,061
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #77 on: January 29, 2014, 09:50:00 »
He certainly has the charisma I think to take on Trudeau's and has more substance to him.  I'm not sure for who or what I will vote for yet but the Prime Minister's current team isn't doing it enough for me.  A refresh in leadership, maybe, would help.  It's a tough choice right now because I applaud some of the policies and positions but lament others.  The lament is currently tipping to one side however.

Plenty of time between now and then though.  Watch and shoot.
Optio

Offline Journeyman

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 534,845
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 12,860
  • Your example, not your opinion, can cause change
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #78 on: January 29, 2014, 13:02:55 »
I think that Four Horsemen will end up being John Baird, Jason Kenney, Peter MacKay, and Jim Prentice.

Baird may have the most political savvy (although he just caved and got rid of his English-only business cards.   ;) )

Kenney's domestic coverage within the portfolios of Employment/Social Development and Multiculturalism seem to be largely ignored.

McKay has had some rocky media exposure, but currently has name-brand recognition and popularity -- which can be fleeting in politics.
I personally have to give him extra points for playing rugby and having a hot wife.  :nod:

Prentice, right now, is a long-shot. I believe he's the most intelligent of this lot, but in sound-byte politics that may not count for much.  He also may have some baggage following on from his 2010 resignation.

I guess the question is, what characteristics are required to compete against Trudeau and Mulcair?  :dunno:


But hey, what do I know.  This is a world where Superbowl odds have been skewed by the winner-pick of a blind manatee (which has been correct for 6 of the past 6 Superbowls) :stars:
There’s nothing more maddening than debating someone who doesn’t know history, doesn’t read books, and frames their myopia as virtue. The level of unapologetic conjecture I’ve encountered lately isn’t just frustrating, it’s retrogressive, unprecedented, and absolutely terrifying.
~Chris Evans

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #79 on: March 06, 2014, 06:00:50 »
There is an interesting development being reported in the business pages: "Enbridge turns to Jim Prentice for pipeline help" is the headline in the Globe and Mail's Report of Business.

The Globe's story says:

     "[A First Nation leader] compared Mr. Prentice’s assignment, which is to renew talks with First Nations about possible partnership agreements with Enbridge, as being like someone “trying to give mouth to mouth” to a dying person.

     But Mr. Prentice, whose years of cabinet work on First Nation and environmental files give him high credibility in aboriginal communities, is optimistic he can make a breakthrough – he says Enbridge is ready to make “significant changes” to get there."

If, and it is a HUGE IF, Mr Prentice can pull this off ~ convince Enbridge to redesign the project in ways that will satisfy First Nations and convince First Nations that he (and through him, Enbridge) actually understands and supports their best interests ~ then his political capital will be vast, he will be a Conservative hero. If he fails, a very distinct possibility, he will be a "has been."
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Nemo888

  • Banned
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • 11,525
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 871
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #80 on: March 06, 2014, 07:45:06 »
Good luck with that. Jim “The-Dim-Apprentice” Prentice as he is known by First Nations is neither liked or respected. They think he is looking for a few Indians who want a large payout to give the project some press credibility. It is a PR campaign and changes nothing.

Baird will eventually be hamstrung because of his lifestyle. It would be cool if Canada was progressive enough that the right wing party could choose a gay leader, but I don't think we are there yet.

McKay is hands down the smartest, but he can't keep a promise to save his life. That is what will keep him out of the leaders chair. If he does get it he has the best chances of forming a government.

Kenny does not have the charisma to win a federal election. He may be the win the leadership, but only because everyone else is carrying too much baggage.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2014, 07:59:34 by Nemo888 »

Offline Brad Sallows

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 62,515
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,680
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #81 on: March 06, 2014, 22:50:47 »
>They think he is looking for a few Indians who want a large payout to give the project some press credibility.

It'll be more than "a few", but basically the payout is the only thing holding up approval.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #82 on: March 07, 2014, 08:10:18 »
>They think he is looking for a few Indians who want a large payout to give the project some press credibility.

It'll be more than "a few", but basically the payout is the only thing holding up approval.


I'm inclined to agree ...

I'm afraid that, in my view, anyway, First Nations' leadership is weak and venal ~ I know there are notable exceptions, many of them, but broadly and generally: weak and venal.

I'm guessing that Mr Prentice has to do two things:

     1. Find out the price of the weak, venal leaders; and

     2. Produce a package that addresses the legitimate concerns of the strong, honest leaders.

If he does that he is Captain Canada, given the potential for people avoiding Quebec like the plague for a few years.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #83 on: March 18, 2014, 16:28:31 »
Not directly related to the leadership, except in the sense that it will be interesting to soo who Prime Minister harper picks to head Finance and what the impact of that might be on someone's leadership aspirations, but, the media is reproting that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is resigning from the federal cabinet. The effective date is not clear, but I am assuming it is immediate.

His full statement is:

Quote
Yesterday, I informed the Prime Minister that I am resigning from Cabinet. This was a decision I made with my family earlier this year, as I will be returning to the private sector.

I am grateful to Prime Minister Stephen Harper for providing me with the opportunity and responsibility to serve Canadians as their Minister of Finance since 2006, one of the longest serving Finance Ministers in Canadian history. As a government, we achieved great things for Canada and I could never have accomplished what I have as Finance Minister without the full support of Prime Minister Harper.

As I reflect on my almost two decades in politics, I am proud of the accomplishments of the governments I was part of, provincial and federal.

In my time as Finance Minister, I am proud of the work I have done to help manage the deepest economic challenge to face Canada since the depression of the 1930s and ensure Canada emerged stronger and as a recognized economic leader on the international stage.

Along with managing Canada’s performance during the global economic crisis, I am pleased our government brought forward positive measures to make Canada one of the world’s best places to do business.  I am proud to be part of a government that:
     
  • reduced Canada’s business taxes to the lowest level in the G-7;
  • reduced other taxes 160 times;
  • introduced the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) and the Working Income Tax Benefit (WITB)
  • took action on four separate occasions to protect Canada’s housing market; and
  • took historical steps to strengthen Canada’s securities regulation regime.

I also made it a priority to help improve the well-being of people with disabilities. Our government has worked hard to ensure our country benefits from the talents and abilities of Canadians with disabilities. We improved accessibility through the Enabling Accessibility Fund, provided new investments for people with disabilities to join and contribute to the workforce, and helped improve access to financial independence through programs such as the Registered Disabilities Savings Plan (RDSP).

My goal was always to get Canada back on track to a balanced budget after the large deficit we agreed was necessary in Budget 2009 to combat the Great Recession and protect Canadian jobs. As outlined in Budget 2014, I followed through on that commitment. There is no doubt that Canada’s budget will be balanced in 2015.  Canada’s fiscal position is the envy of the developed world.  All Canadians can be proud of the country’s performance.

Now, I will focus on life beyond politics as I return to the private sector. I believe that I have served my country, province and constituents of Whitby-Oshawa to the best of my abilities and thank them for their continued trust and support for almost two decades. It has been an honour to serve Canadians with the Prime Minister, Cabinet and caucus colleagues and all Members of Parliament in the House of Commons.

As many of you know, I faced a health issue over this past year. I have received much support and good wishes from Canadians across the country and for that, I am thankful.   I am happy to report that I am on the road to a full recovery and the decision to leave politics was not related in any way to my health. This decision was made because it is the right one for me and my family at this time.

I would also like to thank all Canadians who expressed their support and encouragement over my years in public service. I have often said that public service is a noble calling and have encouraged young people, including my own children, to consider it as a worthy career choice.  I believe a career in the public service is the most satisfying and personally enriching career you will ever find.

I want to thank my wife Christine and our three sons for their unwavering support during my time in public office. I am lucky to have such a wonderful family.

As I begin another chapter in my life, I leave feeling fulfilled with what we have accomplished as a government and a country during one of the most challenging economic periods in our country’s history.

We live in the greatest country in the world, and I want Canadians to know that it has been my honour and my privilege to serve them.

Thank you.

Jim Flaherty
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #84 on: March 18, 2014, 17:05:49 »
The speculation begins: Jason Kenney; James Moore and Lisa Raitt are all being mentioned as potential Finance Ministers; ditto Joe Oliver, who has a lot a Bay Street experience, and Tony Clement, anothet veteran of the Mike Harris cabinet. Although some journalists have said John Baird, I doubt he's in play.

It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Nemo888

  • Banned
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • 11,525
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 871
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #85 on: March 18, 2014, 18:27:38 »
Only one is qualified to be a finance minister. Strange that Flaherty would abandon ship right now. Any speculation?

Jason Kenney- Philosophy degree
James Moore- Community college for business administration
Lisa Raitt- Masters in Chemistry
Joe Oliver- MBA Harvard Business School

Offline ballz

    ...

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 113,551
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,202
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #86 on: March 18, 2014, 18:43:29 »
Only one is qualified to be a finance minister. Strange that Flaherty would abandon ship right now. Any speculation?

Jason Kenney- Philosophy degree
James Moore- Community college for business administration
Lisa Raitt- Masters in Chemistry
Joe Oliver- MBA Harvard Business School

Now that is credentialism if I've ever seen it...

Surely you do not need a Harvard MBA to realize that if you are spending more than you are making, you end up going into debt...
Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?

Offline Nemo888

  • Banned
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • 11,525
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 871
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #87 on: March 18, 2014, 19:38:41 »
Why on earth would we need someone with more than a community college certificate to run a G20 economy? Perhaps because we would want the most qualified individual.

Harper is an economist and has ballooned annual expenditures by 31.4% since 2006 while cutting taxes.(7% pop growth in that time) You argue tax and spend is bad, so what do you think of cutting revenues while increasing spending?

Offline ballz

    ...

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 113,551
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,202
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #88 on: March 18, 2014, 19:51:25 »
Why on earth would we need someone with more than a community college certificate to run a G20 economy? Perhaps because we would want the most qualified individual.

Harper is an economist and has ballooned annual expenditures by 31.4% since 2006 while cutting taxes.(7% pop growth in that time) You argue tax and spend is bad, so what do you think of cutting revenues while increasing spending?

Actually, what I pointed out is that listing the candidates by their formal education (which you didn't even get right) and basically saying that "the best candidate is the one with the best piece of paper" is called credentialism.

By the argument you've presented, we don't even need to have political campaigns, press conferences, etc. Whoever holds a PhD from the most prestigious Ivy League School should just be handed the keys to 24 Sussex, let's skip all the other nonsense.
Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #89 on: March 18, 2014, 19:54:34 »
Jim Flaherty, arguably a good, solid Finance Minister is a lawyer; ditto Ralph Goodale, John Manley and Paul Martin. Michael Wilson, who was Finance Minister in the 1980s, was a Bay Street type. Good ministers are good, tough, brave leader/managers ... the qualifications are human rather than academic.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Fishbone Jones

    MSC -5240.

  • "Some people will only like you if you fit inside their box. Don't be afraid to shove that box up their ass."
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 268,682
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,357
    • Army.ca
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #90 on: March 18, 2014, 20:02:13 »
Actually, what I pointed out is that listing the candidates by their formal education (which you didn't even get right) and basically saying that "the best candidate is the one with the best piece of paper" is called credentialism.

By the argument you've presented, we don't even need to have political campaigns, press conferences, etc. Whoever holds a PhD from the most prestigious Ivy League School should just be handed the keys to 24 Sussex, let's skip all the other nonsense.

Careful ballz, careful, you'll find it hard to escape ;D
Diversity includes adverse opinions, or it is not diversity.
Inclusive includes adverse opinions, or is not inclusive.

Offline Nemo888

  • Banned
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • 11,525
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 871
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #91 on: March 18, 2014, 20:07:50 »
This is not Minister of State for Multiculturalism or Minister of Canadian Heritage. It's Finance. I would prefer an MBA with at least a decade of experience as a CFO. If they have run their own company or firm for a few decades that would be alright as well.

Offline ballz

    ...

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 113,551
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,202
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #92 on: March 18, 2014, 20:18:02 »
That's nice.

Besides the fact that his MBA is 44 years old (how relevent is it to today's economy / business environment?) and that Finance is not exactly a hard science (is his MBA even focused on Finance?), I would like to know/hear more about/from these people and hear what they think and what their ideas are going forward before I decide that a Harvard MBA is some sort of God-card that trumps everything.
Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?

Offline Fishbone Jones

    MSC -5240.

  • "Some people will only like you if you fit inside their box. Don't be afraid to shove that box up their ass."
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 268,682
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,357
    • Army.ca
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #93 on: March 18, 2014, 20:46:47 »


 :nod:
Diversity includes adverse opinions, or it is not diversity.
Inclusive includes adverse opinions, or is not inclusive.

Offline Brad Sallows

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 62,515
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,680
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #94 on: March 18, 2014, 21:57:45 »
>Only one is qualified to be a finance minister.

The only "qualification" is appointment by the G-G.  Believe it or not, there are federal civil servants to provide the day-to-day expertise.  I suggest you get some fresh air.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Nemo888

  • Banned
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • 11,525
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 871
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #95 on: March 18, 2014, 23:23:34 »

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #96 on: March 19, 2014, 06:41:39 »
The rumoured appointment of Joe Oliver takes pressure off the likely leadership candidates.

Minister Oliver is a good choice: known and respected on Bay Street and in the caucus and cabinet; he holds Eglington-Lawrence, a urban Toronto riding, as close to downtown TO as the CPC can get; he has no leadership ambitions.

It's not clear that, at age 73 now, he intends to run again in 2015 but he strikes me as being physically and mentally fit.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Online ModlrMike

    : Riding time again... woohooo!

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 212,769
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,755
    • Canadian Association of Physician Assistants
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #97 on: March 19, 2014, 08:59:22 »
Does anyone but me think there's an even chance that Mr Flaherty's departure gives him ample time to clear the decks and marshal his forces in time for a leadership run after the 2015 election?
WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher,smarter, faster and better looking than most people.
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. (H.L. Mencken 1919)
Zero tolerance is the politics of the lazy. All it requires is that you do nothing and ban everything.

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 479,085
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,340
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #98 on: March 19, 2014, 09:11:11 »
Does anyone but me think there's an even chance that Mr Flaherty's departure gives him ample time to clear the decks and marshal his forces in time for a leadership run after the 2015 election?


No, I don't think so.

I think Jim Flaherty has two ambitions:

     1. Earn a few big, corporate pay cheques, because he needs to earn some big money to address some family health problems (one of his sons); and

     2. Help his wife, Christine Elliot, become Premier of Ontario, because many (most?) people think Tim Hudak cannot win.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Remius

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 97,160
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,061
Re: The Next Conservative Leader
« Reply #99 on: March 19, 2014, 09:11:37 »
Does anyone but me think there's an even chance that Mr Flaherty's departure gives him ample time to clear the decks and marshal his forces in time for a leadership run after the 2015 election?

Doubtful.  He's 65.  If PM Harper runs (all indications is that he will), he'll stay for at least two years if not the full term.  That would put Flaherty at close to 70 and possibly 72 depending on the scenario.  While he states that health wasn't a factor, he likely won't be healthier then.

Not impossible but highly improbable.    Unless you think the CPC will lose in 2015 and Harper steps down.  But then why leave now if that were the case?
Optio