Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

[GK .Dundas]

And it looks like the administration got a grip on DNI Gabbard. She’s singing the company song about Iranian nuclear ambitions now:

Tulsi Gabbard now says Iran could produce nuclear weapon 'within weeks'

This comes after US President Donald Trump said she was "wrong" for saying Iran was not building nuclear weapons.

www.bbc.com

Major media has now picked up and is reporting the bomber moves.

US B-2 stealth bombers take off from Missouri to Guam base in Pacific | The Jerusalem Post

One official said no forward orders had been given yet to move the bombers beyond Guam. They did not say how many B-2 bombers are being moved.

www.jpost.com

Re ; The current DNI for some reason I keep flashing back to that scene in Blazing Saddles when Mel Brook's character announces "Gentlemen, we've got to do something to protect our phony baloney jobs !"
I believe Ms. Gabbard has just done that .

 

[brihard]

So they are going with decision-based evidence making? Sounds quite....LPC...or Gulf War II

Indeed. I’m just looking at the signs, not speaking to the rightness or wrongness.

At this point it seems likely the U.S. will hit Fordow. The night it happens, Israel will have everything up, absolutely saturating the airspace and suppressing everything imaginable. Anything emitting radar will die.

What I can’t even come up with a guess at is how they deal with the Bushehr nuclear power plant. It’s literally an operating reactor, and happens to produce plutonium as a product of its fuel cycle. There’s no fast AND non-disastrous way to end that plant.

If this goes, this is going to be the most dangerous B-2 strike in history. But as a buddy of mine pointed out, if they can pull it off, it signals “we could have hit anything. We could have killed you but we didn’t”, and everything else postured to the theatre could be a show of force to deter response and to allow US involvement to stay limited to a single precise hit.

Hopefully there’s still an offramp, and hopefully Iran takes it. But the noises coming from their diplomats in the wake of meeting Europe are not encouraging.

 

[daftandbarmy]

So they are going with decision-based evidence making? Sounds quite....LPC...or Gulf War II

 

[The Bread Guy]

So they are going with decision-based evidence making? Sounds quite....LPC...or Gulf War II

You're not alone in noticing that ....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934964418367934724

 

[The Bread Guy]

... If this goes, this is going to be the most dangerous B-2 strike in history. But as a buddy of mine pointed out, if they can pull it off, it signals “we could have hit anything. We could have killed you but we didn’t”, and everything else postured to the theatre could be a show of force to deter response and to allow US involvement to stay limited to a single precise hit ...

I still get a bit of this kind of vibe from the idea ....

... though I hope I'm wrong if this is how it plays out. Happy to see IRN nukeless, but I suspect it'll also invite the "if you helped break it, how you gonna help fix it?" narrative.

 

[FJAG]

You're not alone in noticing that ....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934964418367934724

The realism of AI just scares the piss out of me.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If I was designing a concealed fortress I would ensure that there was an alternative entrance/exit dug that led to a second area well removed from my primary facility. The Persians aren't fools, they were aware when they started that Israel at the very least would probably go after them hammer and tong and would have planned accordingly.

Someone had to build them. One wonders who, and where the records are.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Latest from ISW ....

• "Israel continued its strike campaign targeting Iranian air defenses, missile forces, and nuclear sites. These sites include one in Esfahan that produced centrifuges.
• Israel struck and killed senior officers in the IRGC Aerospace Force and Quds Force, which may impose a temporary disruption upon Iranian command-and-control.
• An Iranian drone struck a populated area in Israel for the first time during this war. This is not indicative of a systematic breakdown in Israeli air defenses. Integrated air defense systems are not perfect, and some projectiles will impact their targets.
• Iran conducted another ballistic missile attack targeting Israel. It consisted of five missiles, all of which the IDF intercepted."

 

[Quirky]

Indeed. I’m just looking at the signs, not speaking to the rightness or wrongness.

At this point it seems likely the U.S. will hit Fordow. The night it happens, Israel will have everything up, absolutely saturating the airspace and suppressing everything imaginable. Anything emitting radar will die.

What I can’t even come up with a guess at is how they deal with the Bushehr nuclear power plant. It’s literally an operating reactor, and happens to produce plutonium as a product of its fuel cycle. There’s no fast AND non-disastrous way to end that plant.

If this goes, this is going to be the most dangerous B-2 strike in history. But as a buddy of mine pointed out, if they can pull it off, it signals “we could have hit anything. We could have killed you but we didn’t”, and everything else postured to the theatre could be a show of force to deter response and to allow US involvement to stay limited to a single precise hit.

Hopefully there’s still an offramp, and hopefully Iran takes it. But the noises coming from their diplomats in the wake of meeting Europe are not encouraging.

Does the B-2 need air superiority?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Does the B-2 need air superiority?

USAF claims no.

YMMV.

 

[KevinB]

Does the B-2 need air superiority?

USAF claims no.

YMMV.

Given the Israelis are operating a number of platforms over Iran that provide some credence they have air supremacy, does it it matter?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Latest from ISW ....

• "Israel continued its strike campaign targeting Iranian air defenses, missile forces, and nuclear sites. These sites include one in Esfahan that produced centrifuges.
• Israel struck and killed senior officers in the IRGC Aerospace Force and Quds Force, which may impose a temporary disruption upon Iranian command-and-control.
• An Iranian drone struck a populated area in Israel for the first time during this war. This is not indicative of a systematic breakdown in Israeli air defenses. Integrated air defense systems are not perfect, and some projectiles will impact their targets.
• Iran conducted another ballistic missile attack targeting Israel. It consisted of five missiles, all of which the IDF intercepted."

Well, apparently, one ballistic missile made it through!

Iranian Ballistic Missiles Hit “Strategic Points” In Israeli Port City Of Haifa (Updated)

Iran continues to send missiles and drones against Israel, with the port city that houses the main base of the Israeli Navy among the latest to be attacked.

www.twz.com

 

[MilEME09]

Unconfirmed reports of a firefight at the Iranian Fowdow facility

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936534090376954037

 

[brihard]

Does the B-2 need air superiority?

Fair question. I would think that, if they go, they’ll want to have the area flooded with enough friendly air that anything that even thinks of emitting radar does quickly. Those assets will need air superiority.

There will also be the brief moments of vulnerability when the B2s open their bomb bays.

Unconfirmed reports of a firefight at the Iranian Fowdow facility

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936534090376954037

Definitely be interested to hear if this firms up.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Unconfirmed reports of a firefight at the Iranian Fowdow facility

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936534090376954037

Israelis to Trump - sh$t or get off the pot.

 

[brihard]

So far I can’t find anything remotely reliable about a fight at Fordow.

 

[Lumber]

Unconfirmed reports of a firefight at the Iranian Fowdow facility

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936534090376954037

Ouuuu so is it Israeli SOF or is it anti-Regime partisans who saw an opportunity to help expedite the stop of Israeli bombs dropping by helping Israel achieve their objectives, or an homegrown anti-regime militia recruited and trained by the IDF that has now been activated?

 

[brihard]

Ouuuu so is it Israeli SOF or is it anti-Regime partisans who saw an opportunity to help expedite the stop of Israeli bombs dropping by helping Israel achieve their objectives, or an homegrown anti-regime militia recruited and trained by the IDF that has now been activated?

Nothing has firmed up, it’s probably just Twitter BS.

 

[brihard]

The U.S. has bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

 

[armyvern]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936574129009803509