High and dry with 10% baseline plus sectoral, and a crippling recession.
CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)
- Thread starter Remius
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QV
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Mexico’s Sheinbaum says ‘no need’ for bilateral trade deal with Canada - National | Globalnews.ca
'We have the trade deal with the United States, Canada and Mexico... There is no need,' Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Wednesday.
globalnews.ca
Earlier this month Mexico rebuffed Canada's attempt at a bi-lateral trade deal...
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10%, you're being optimistic. Only UK and Oz have gotten 10%, it could be 15% across the board, with oil/gas maybe, maybe at 0% or 10%.
Putting oil/gas at 0% will stoke, for certain, Alberta (maybe Sask) vs Ontario and the rest of Canada tension, which will in turn create fodder for Trump to use.
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Quirky
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The liberal chicken dance.
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As much as I have mostly liked PMMC, this is a weird about face for the #Elbowsup PM.
Perhaps Europe wasn't as willing to deal with us as some had hoped.
I'd rather look elsewhere, like Asia for partners. I imagine Japan and SK are more willing to work with us than France and Germany. Old biases run deep, and the "new world" is just colonial to the Euro purists.
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No matter where we look for ‘replacing ‘ the US, no one or no combination of places, will be able to replace all of our trade with the US.
Reduce as much as we can, but understand and accept that it will never go below 50-60 of all our trade - geography dictates this.
Halifax Tar
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One factor may be that, with a bunch of other countries having essentially already caved, that leaves us in a materially different and somewhat more isolated position than a few months ago, forcing a reassessment.
We do still have what appears to be the best trade deal with the Americans out of anyone, allowing that there’s some room for debate over whether we or Mexico have the absolute best depending on how CUSMA goods are reckoned. Where the U.S. has arbitrarily slapped trade barriers on literally everybody, retaining an agreement that keeps ours the lowest may be the best achievable outcome.
America has chosen to make its economic bed with old school mercantilist policies, and we don’t have the ability to change that, so we have to adapt. We can still seek trade liberalization with the rest of the world, and hopefully some more global trade flows around the U.S. and to/through Canada instead. Eventually Americans will realize that they’re needlessly paying more for a lot of goods than everyone else due to tariffs and they’ll have their own internal clamor for change. When that happens we’ll be in a position to reassess. For now, CUSMA must be protected, and the reconsiderations thereof kept as advantageous for Canada as possible.
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Hey, if Toronto Sun's Brian Lilley can back the idea ...
LILLEY: Mark Carney's elbows disappear but he's making the right move
The Prime Minister says he will drop tariffs on many American goods to kickstart trade talks
Brad Sallows
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They might not be noticing on the scale required.
From their PoV, the combination of tariffs and tax cuts may be playing out the same way as our carbon taxes and rebates. People notice the pain point (imported goods, fuels) and spend a little less on those, but also find that their total financial position is not as imbalanced as considering only one side (the costs, and not the tax breaks) would suggest. If US domestic producers have been and are able to meet increased demand (which necessarily happens if their exports drop, encouraged by things like "buy Canadian" here), again the pain point is reduced.
The fundamental factor is that consumers adapt, and the US has more room to adapt because of the breadth of its productive capabilities.
Sure, but in the long run they’re still adding considerable friction to their economy and will pay for jamming sticks in the spokes of comparative advantage. Ultimately it’ll show in inflation figures, and the recent PPI numbers are a canary in the coal mine on that front. Give it a few months for that to flow downstream to CPI, and for pre-tariff stockpiled inventories to show up, and they’ll start seeing it. Some consumer goods are already starting to tick upwards.
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The removal of ‘de mininus’ in the US will crush tens of thousands of small businesses in the US. The USPS will lose even more money going forward.
By the time ‘Black Friday’ comes along it will be a very different US.
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Kind of an interesting one; global costs of orange juice went up due to weather impacts, but exports of Florida juice to Canada is plummeting. In the grand scheme of things it's going down from $12M to just under $6M, but can't remember even seeing Florida citrus for sale at all this summer, and most US produce seems to just sit on the tables, even heavily discounted.
Will be interesting to see if, when we eventually get past the tariffing insanity, if consumer habits shift back at all, or if this will drive some long term permanent behavioural changes. That kind of thing is what car brands live an die off of, so weird to see it playing out in the fruit and veg aisle.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/orange-juice-tariffs-canada-1.7613588
Will be interesting to see if, when we eventually get past the tariffing insanity, if consumer habits shift back at all, or if this will drive some long term permanent behavioural changes. That kind of thing is what car brands live an die off of, so weird to see it playing out in the fruit and veg aisle.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/orange-juice-tariffs-canada-1.7613588
U.S. orange juice shipments plummet as Canadians find Florida OJ hard to swallow
Tropicana might cost $13.99 but Canada-processed brands are typically half that
Natalie Stechyson · CBC News · Posted: Aug 20, 2025 6:34 PM EDT | Last Updated: August 20
Containers of Tropicana orange juice displayed on a grocery store shelf in San Anselmo, Calif., in February. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Feeling a little squeezed in the orange juice aisle?
Between the climbing cost for a carton of fresh-squeezed juice, steep counter-tariffs on U.S. juices like Tropicana, and now plummeting U.S. shipments, you might worry this breakfast staple is in danger of becoming a luxury good.
But industry and business experts say none of this is unexpected and that consumers have options.
Canada is seeing a "dramatic reduction" in imports of orange juice from Florida but that is to be expected, given the rising prices and the fact that the beverage was specifically targeted by our counter-tariffs, said Michael von Massow, a professor of food agriculture and resource economics at the University of Guelph in Ontario.
In other words, the marked drop in imports has been compounded by the ongoing consumer desire to buy Canadian, he said.
"We are probably seeing an effect here where just the American product is going up in price — which means that it's going down in demand — but there are other options on the shelf," von Massow told CBC News.
"Unless you're tied specifically to fresh-pressed orange juice from Florida."
WATCH | Orange juice prices hard to swallow? You have options:
High price of Florida OJ hard to swallow? You have options
5 days ago
If you've stopped buying orange juice from Florida because the tariffs have sent prices soaring, there are many options to keep the breakfast staple on your table, says Michael von Massow of the University of Guelph.
U.S. shipments drop to 20-year low
The total value of U.S. shipments of fresh orange juice to Canada saw a steep drop in June to its lowest level in more than 20 years, according to data from both the U.S. Census Bureau and Statistics Canada.
The total import value in June of fresh orange juice from the U.S. into Canada was $5.78 million, compared to nearly $12 million in June 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Since January alone, the monthly import value dropped by 64 per cent.
There are a number of factors at play, said William Huggins, an assistant professor of finance and business economics at McMaster University in Hamilton.
Supply constraints push up prices, which reduces demand, he said. Plus, there are the 25 per cent counter-tariffs imposed by Canada on March 4.
Canada's response to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs affects $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, including orange juice.
"Canada specifically targeted Florida orange juice as a way of making a political point. We weren't even shy about it," Huggins said.
- Trade war starting to show up in higher prices on some grocery items
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Orange juice is practically symbolic of the U.S., much in the same way that maple syrup is for Canada, he explained.
It's also become emblematic of the consumer boycott, he added: when shoppers think of orange juice, they think of Florida, and when they think of Florida, they think of Trump and his Mar a Lago home.
"The most basic thing you can do to give your finger to the most powerful man in the world is to hurt his home state's economy," Huggins said.
Prices on the way up
Orange juice prices have always been volatile, as The Associated Press notes. Prices fall when bumper harvests create an oversupply of oranges and rise when frost or a hurricane knocks out fruit trees.
And recently, the price has been going up, according to Statistics Canada.
The monthly average retail price for a two-litre carton shot up in June to $5.95, from $5.62 in January, and is up 54 per cent compared to June 2020.
This year's harvest in Brazil, the world's largest exporter of orange juice, is likely to be the worst in 36 years due to flooding and drought, according to a forecast by Fundecitrus, a citrus growers' organization in Sao Paulo state.
In the U.S., Florida's already diminished orange production fell 62 per cent in the 2022-23 season after Hurricane Ian battered a crop that was already struggling due to an invasive pest. Drought also cut Spain's orange production last year.
But what Statistics Canada doesn't show is that the price increase here is largely driven by the price of Florida orange juice, von Massow reiterated.
At Loblaws, for example, a 2.63-litre container of U.S.-based Tropicana might cost up to $13.50 but the prepared-in-Canada PC brand currently costs $6.50. At Metro, 2.63 litres of Tropicana orange juice is $13.99, but 2.5 litres of Irresistible brand is $7.69.
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Canadian-owned juice brand Oasis, which sources its oranges from Brazil and bottles the juice in Quebec, costs $5.49 for 1.5 litres at Food Basics.
But all these prices are significantly higher than what Canadians paid in 2017. According to Statistics Canada, a two-litre container of orange juice back then cost about $3.61— 40 per cent less than what it costs now.
Trevor Murphy inspects an orange tree in one of his groves in February in Sebring, Fla. The total import value in June of fresh orange juice from the U.S. into Canada was $5.78 million, compared to nearly $12 million in June 2024. (Marta Lavandier/The Associated Press)
Price increases turning off consumers
And consumers aren't buying it.
Global orange juice demand dropped 15 per cent year-over-year between 2025 and 2024, according to a May report from Rabobank, a Dutch bank that focuses on food and agriculture. They cited high prices, weaker consumer sentiment and limited availability.
In a July report, Rabobank noted a "sharp decline in global orange juice supply."
Some Canadian businesses have told CBC they've stopped serving orange juice as they rethink their relationship with U.S. products.
- From oranges to booze, here's where a trade war with the U.S. will hurt Canadians in their wallets
- U.S. egg prices have finally dropped, but record highs aren't over that easy
Huggins said he really doesn't foresee orange juice becoming the next "liquid gold," like olive oil, which recently saw its price double over three years.
Consumers have other options, he explained, and the boycott sentiment is still going strong.
"It's not like there are no substitutes for orange juice. People will just drink apple juice," Huggins said.
HavokFour
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An unexpected and somewhat humorous side effect of the trade war is Americans are discovering the exploits of Robert Ross.
nationalpost.com
Canadian grave of general who torched White House in 1814 draws interest amid trade war
The gravesite of British Major General Robert Ross, who burned down the White House 211 years ago this week, was a busy place Monday.
nationalpost.com
Brad Sallows
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The doom-and-gloom predictions from earlier that were supposed to have taken effect by now have mostly failed to materialize. It's prudent to bet that there should be problems, but if US producers and consumers adapt and the fiscal picture is still stable in 6 months, then what?
Then we continue what we’re already doing- diversify our trade elsewhere to the extent feasible, find policies that encourage growth and diversification of Canadian industry etc.
The American population is showing an incredible tolerance for really stupid and self-destructive policy and administration action in other aspects of government, so it’s absolutely possible that we have overestimated the extent to which they’ll ’smarten up’, at least under the current administration. We seem to have our own government hoping for the best but planning for the worst, so there we are I suppose.
Brad Sallows
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Is that what we're doing? I follow enough domestic news to hear (over and over) the statements of intent, but when I look for actual effort I see governments that seem to be hoping to wait out the storm so that they don't really have to up-end things for the vested interests already served by status quo. Sure, there have been some small movements. I see nothing on the scale required to offset the predicted impact ("2% of GDP"). Back when people were spit-balling impact and mitigation, the people thinking we could offset much of a "2%" loss were recommending pretty much all internal trade impediments would have to go, and we still wouldn't get all the way there.
We're foot-dragging. We have about as much will to "go in and win" as we do for the Ukraine war.
Watch this space, I guess.
