The War in Ukraine

[HavokFour]

Defense Tech Valley 2025 happened in Lviv today. Whole new slew of drones and associated tech about to make it's battlefield debut.

What Next-Gen Weapons Is Ukraine Showcasing at Defense Tech Valley 2025?

Investment in Ukrainian defense tech surged as firms pledge over $100 million, reshaping Europe’s approach to military innovation.

united24media.com

 

[OldSolduer]

In other news, the CEO of the only company in Russia that makes carbon fire has been "windowed".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969095937663352944

Gee that's too bad.

 

[HavokFour]

Cooking again, that's twice this week for Saratov.

Ukraine strikes oil refineries in Russia's Saratov and Samara oblasts, military confirms

Ukraine's General Staff said that it had struck two oil refineries overnight on Sept. 20 in Russia's Saratov and Samara oblasts, confirming earlier reports on social media from Russian residents.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Lumber]

Do you think Ukraine is actually trying to completely destroy Russia's oil manufacturing capacity, and is simply unable?

Or are they able to, but unwilling to go scorched earth, for fear that that would elicit a more extreme response from Russia? Are they just trying to slowly make Russians lives more difficult without ignited an unwanted fire?

 

[HavokFour]

Do you think Ukraine is actually trying to completely destroy Russia's oil manufacturing capacity, and is simply unable?

Or are they able to, but unwilling to go scorched earth, for fear that that would elicit a more extreme response from Russia? Are they just trying to slowly make Russians lives more difficult without ignited an unwanted fire?

More that they'll be waiting indefinitely for the foot dragging (much like the trickling of military aid) on sanctions to stop and no guarantee certain countries will even abide by them. So the solution is to apply more permanent sanctions directly to the source themselves, and so far to it's had great effect and probably more so than actual sanctions.

Zelenskyy accuses allies of ‘wasting time’ as he prepares for Trump meeting

Ukrainian president will urge his US counterpart to impose more sanctions on Russia when they meet next week

www.theguardian.com

Putin Decides He Can Step Up Attacks on Kyiv and Trump Won’t Act​

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Do you think Ukraine is actually trying to completely destroy Russia's oil manufacturing capacity, and is simply unable?

Or are they able to, but unwilling to go scorched earth, for fear that that would elicit a more extreme response from Russia? Are they just trying to slowly make Russians lives more difficult without ignited an unwanted fire?

I think that Ukraine is going as fast as they can with the weapons they have at hand.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Do you think Ukraine is actually trying to completely destroy Russia's oil manufacturing capacity, and is simply unable?

Or are they able to, but unwilling to go scorched earth, for fear that that would elicit a more extreme response from Russia? Are they just trying to slowly make Russians lives more difficult without ignited an unwanted fire?

Economic forces are doing more damage than drones, it seems, but the damage is helping disrupt production...

Russia's Oil and Gas Revenues Face Significant September Decline​

• Russia's oil and gas revenues are expected to fall by 23% in September year-on-year due to declining international crude prices and a stronger ruble.
• This decline poses a challenge for Russia's 2026 budget and continued spending on the war in Ukraine.
• Despite a rise in petroleum product shipments in August, overall crude and fuel export revenue slumped due to wider discounts and refinery disruptions.

Russia's Oil and Gas Revenues Face Significant September Decline | OilPrice.com

Russia's oil and gas revenues are projected to significantly decline in September due to lower crude prices and a stronger ruble, impacting the Kremlin's budget.

oilprice.com

 

[HavokFour]

The ZSU has a new branch.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969456995528032619

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969396271334015301

Some of the units that it's build upon, very heavy hitters:

225th Separate Assault Battalion
Skala Regiment
3rd Assault Brigade


On the topic of warm bodies, recruitment is down (again) quite a bit this quarter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969403625202921768

 

[daftandbarmy]

The ZSU has a new branch.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969456995528032619

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969396271334015301

Some of the units that it's build upon, very heavy hitters:

225th Separate Assault Battalion
Skala Regiment
3rd Assault Brigade


On the topic of warm bodies, recruitment is down (again) quite a bit this quarter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969403625202921768

Their motto: 'Last one to die is a sissy!'

 

[daftandbarmy]

How's the PBI doing these days?

 

[HavokFour]

They didn't show off that 12ft, 5000kg long range monster for nothin'.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969669983446732937

Clear shot of an intercept that happened yesterday.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969737065341297039

 

[HavokFour]

Moscow has been under drone attack for the last couple hours.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1970189764801278184

And there's been something going on up in the Nordics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1970256281354023088

 

[HavokFour]

A new phase of the campaign may be starting. Tankers in the DNR have begun to be targeted.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1971194086221852894

https://twitter.com/x/status/1971208740209639779

 

[HavokFour]

A small update from Pokrovsk. There are now 3 pockets of Russians encircled.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1971178379379372115

 

[Czech_pivo]

A small update from Pokrovsk. There are now 3 pockets of Russians encircled.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1971178379379372115

Are we talking about 3 groups of 20-25 Russians encircled or are we talking about 3 groups of 150-225 Russians encircled?

 

[HavokFour]

Are we talking about 3 groups of 20-25 Russians encircled or are we talking about 3 groups of 150-225 Russians encircled?

UKR and RU sources I follow both say at least a couple hundred between the 3 pockets. The most northern pocket which is less than 4km² may have up to 100 trapped claimed by one RU source. Definitely not thousands because all 3 are being kept on life support by sparse drone supply drops that make it through all the EW and CUAS around them.

We'll have a better idea when they start to fall.

 

[HavokFour]

A big, massive crack is becoming more visible. Another month straight of refinery strikes should help it along.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russia appears to be running out of surface-to-air missiles, with air defence crews having to be reassigned to the infantry because they have nothing to fire. ⬇️ 2/ The Russian military corresponden...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[QV]

Whatever the outcome of this shit show, Russian and Ukrainian demographics will be shattered for several generations.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Whatever the outcome of this shit show, Russian and Ukrainian demographics will be shattered for several generations.

As Napoleon said after the Battle of Austerlitz "One Parisian night will replace them all."

The beauty of a conscription model....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Whatever the outcome of this shit show, Russian and Ukrainian demographics will be shattered for several generations.

Which is why Ukraine has avoided recruiting from it's most vulnerable age demographic.