2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Retired AF Guy]

None of the neighbors like Venezuela. Most would be tickled pink if there was a regime change.

True, but they probably dislike Yankee imperialists even more so.

However Trump will crumble if he goes into Venezuela, as it’s hard to be the ‘President of Peace’ and run an invasion. He sold his base on withdrawal from overseas - and while the hard core base has the brains of a gnat and the willingness of a death cult to follow each weird tune he sings, the majority of his voters won’t be happy.

Especially if there are causalities. Even more so if it is perceived by the American public as nothing more than a scheme to enrich a bunch of billionaires.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I hope that there are enough bright people left in our Foreign Affairs department who have the right ears of Sr CDN Gov't officials and politicians to press upon them the seriousness of the situation to Canada if the US moves into VZ and does regime change. Their heavy oil is much easier to extract, will have 100% less environmental restrictions, is almost at tide water already and would be cheaper to produce and ship to the US Gulf Coast refineries than Alberta oil sands.

I view this situation as a serious threat to our well-being.

We might need to lease a cargo ship and send some troops to protect the government in VZ against the insurgency.

 

[Cloud Cover]

The US will be taking over Venezuela’s oil over China’s dead body. I wonder if Tom Clancy ever contemplated that storyline for a novel.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I truly hope that there are those bright enough left

I don't think that the US really cares what Brazil thinks right about now. As for Colombia, Trump is already making it pretty plain what his thought are.

Venezuelans have become dirt poor over the last 25+ yrs of their 'Socialist' experiment. They went from being one of the wealthiest countries in LA to rivalling Cuba/Haiti as the poorest. The chance of their regaining even a 1/3 of their former wealth would be a massive move in the daily life experiences for 90% of the population.

I hope that there are enough bright people left in our Foreign Affairs department who have the right ears of Sr CDN Gov't officials and politicians to press upon them the seriousness of the situation to Canada if the US moves into VZ and does regime change. Their heavy oil is much easier to extract, will have 100% less environmental restrictions, is almost at tide water already and would be cheaper to produce and ship to the US Gulf Coast refineries than Alberta oil sands.

I view this situation as a serious threat to our well-being.

I was there in 1994, it was a mess and I am not surprised it went the way it did, except the socialists made it even worse now. But invading and holding is no easy task.

 

[Haggis]

The US will be taking over Venezuela’s oil over China’s dead body. I wonder if Tom Clancy ever contemplated that storyline for a novel.

That ship has sailed. Clancy died 12 years ago.

 

[RangerRay]

Coincidentally, Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world and a fan girl opposition leader with a Nobel Peace Prize:

Venezuelan coup leader María Corina Machado vows to privatize oil: US corporations will ‘make a lot of money’​

2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, a US government-funded far-right coup leader, vowed to privatize Venezuela’s oil. US companies will “make a lot of money”, she told Donald Trump Jr. in an interview.

Venezuelan coup leader María Corina Machado vows to privatize oil: US corporations will 'make a lot of money' - Geopolitical Economy Report

Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado vowed to privatize Venezuela's oil. US companies will "make a lot of money", she told Donald Trump Jr

geopoliticaleconomy.com

Judging by the rhetoric of that website, it sounds like it was written by the Socialist Worker people. Makes Avi Lewis sound like a capitalist.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Judging by the rhetoric of that website, it sounds like it was written by the Socialist Worker people. Makes Avi Lewis sound like a capitalist.

Based on other headlines in their line up, I'd read it the same way ....

 

[daftandbarmy]

Based on other headlines in their line up, I'd read it the same way ....
View attachment 96333

 

[dapaterson]

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I remember seeing and talking to these illegal miners, near Km 88, a hard, hard life for them.

Key aspects of the Kilometre 88 gold rush:
Location: The mining district is in the state of Bolívar in southern Venezuela, in the Guayana Shield region.
The 1990s boom: A significant rush for concessions occurred in the district in the 1990s, with various Canadian and other international mining companies showing strong interest in the area.
High-profile legal disputes: The Las Cristinas gold deposit, a key property at Kilometre 88, became the subject of a high-profile legal battle over ownership rights in the 1990s involving international companies like Placer Dome Inc.
Decline and illegality: Over time, the area has transitioned from large-scale corporate mining to widespread illicit mining. The collapse of Venezuela's economy has driven many people to illegal mining, and criminal gangs control much of the activity.
Criminal control and environmental harm: Illegal gold extraction, often with the complicity of the military, has proliferated in the region. These operations are controlled by armed groups and have caused significant environmental damage, including river contamination with mercury, and have led to the resurgence of malaria.
Maduro's Mining Arc: In 2016, the government of Nicolás Maduro designated a vast area, including Kilometre 88, as the "Arco Minero" to formalize and boost mining. However, observers say this has only worsened the situation by attracting more organized crime and militarizing the region.

Some more if you are interested

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/venezuela/073-gold-and-grief-venezuelas-violent-south

 

[HavokFour]

One aircraft carrier sized distraction incoming.

US is sending an aircraft carrier to Latin America in major escalation of military firepower

The U.S. military is sending an aircraft carrier to the waters off South America in the latest escalation of military firepower to a region.

apnews.com

 

[Lumber]

One aircraft carrier sized distraction incoming.

US is sending an aircraft carrier to Latin America in major escalation of military firepower

The U.S. military is sending an aircraft carrier to the waters off South America in the latest escalation of military firepower to a region.

apnews.com

I do wonder how the balance of world power would shift if the US has full control over Venzeulan oil production and a major foothold in South America. A single US CSG could put the entire continent on lock down.

 

[brihard]

Anyone here more meteorologically inclined able to say how much about-to-be-Hurricane Melissa is going to affect the air and sea space in the AO over the next week? It’ll be gnarly for Jamaica, but I don’t know if it’ll be too far away to impact potential imminent operations in Venezuela?

 

[daftandbarmy]

I do wonder how the balance of world power would shift if the US has full control over Venzeulan oil production and a major foothold in South America. A single US CSG could put the entire continent on lock down.

US consumption of Canadian oil might plummet, of course, once the Venezuelan sanctions are removed ....

 

[dapaterson]

US consumption of Canadian oil might plummet, of course, once the Venezuelan sanctions are removed ....

Bold of you to assume a lack of Venezuelan push back against an invasion.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Bold of you to assume a lack of Venezuelan push back against an invasion.

No need to invade when you can 'gun boat diplomacy' your opponent into a deal that suits Trump...

 

[CBH99]

One aircraft carrier sized distraction incoming.

US is sending an aircraft carrier to Latin America in major escalation of military firepower

The U.S. military is sending an aircraft carrier to the waters off South America in the latest escalation of military firepower to a region.

apnews.com

I know the US wouldn't put their forces at risk the same way the British did during the Falklands (not a criticism of the British, they used what they had available at the time)

And MEU's certainly deserve proper air cover


But a CSG to the region just seems so "overkill" given Venezuela's military capabilities, especially the state of their air force.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Anyone here more meteorologically inclined able to say how much about-to-be-Hurricane Melissa is going to affect the air and sea space in the AO over the next week? It’ll be gnarly for Jamaica, but I don’t know if it’ll be too far away to impact potential imminent operations in Venezuela?

Normally the hurricanes will trend northward, but not always. You might see a increased sea state and more rain. Depends also if the fleet is in a shadow of a land mass relative to the hurricane.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

US consumption of Canadian oil might plummet, of course, once the Venezuelan sanctions are removed ....

The refineries, terminals and the domestic production and transportation is a mess in the country. If sanctions were lifted, it would take a lot of time to increase output. Also no oil company is going to risk their people or cash upgrading it.

 

[lenaitch]

Maybe the US would take them over as State refineries (or the whole country, who knows). Trump as already said he wants Panama back.

Petro-Maga?
Trump Oil?
Oil of Melania?
A whole new meaning to Imperial Oil?