Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Czech_pivo]

We keep that lie about our debt position in the G7 being the best, ignoring the fact most countries don’t have sub sovereign debt and to do a apples to apples comparison you need to add our provincial debt to our federal debt. Doing so you will find we are in just as bad if not worse suituation.

Definately some Liberals like that. Just as there is a bunch of Conservatives who are angry that Carney is doing things the Conservatives wanted to do. It isn’t about the result for those people it is about who is doing what.

Yes, there is a bit of smoke and mirrors with the sovereign vs non-sovereign debt numbers going on, 100% true statement - but, with that being said our numbers are still much much better that the other G7 countries.

1) Canada - 2.3$ trillion CAD in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 74.8% combined debt to GDP ratio
2) Germany - 2.55$ trillion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 62.4% combined debt to GDP ratio
3) Italy - 3.08$ trillion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 137% combined debt to GDP ratio
4) France - 3.416$ trillion EUR in federal, departments, municipal debs - 115.6% combined debt to GDP ratio
5) Japan - 1,324 trillion YEN in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 230% combined debt to GDP ratio - Japan is the most indebted western nation
6) UK - 2.9$ trillion Sterling in federal, municipal debts - 101% combined debt to GDP ratio
7) US - 30.12$ trillion USD in federal, state, municipal debts - 125% combined debt to GDP ratio

Converting CAD into USD and EUR into USD for the above numbers

1) 2.3$ trillion CAD into USD becomes - 1.63$ trillion USD
2) 2.55$ trillion EUR into USD becomes - 2.93$ trillion USD
3) 3.08$ trillion EUR into USD becomes - 3.54$ trillion USD
4) 3.41$ trillion EUR into USD becomes - 3.93$ trillion USD
5) 1,324$ trillion YEN into USD becomes - 8.61$ trillion USD - I'm pretty sure I did the conversion on this correct
6) 2.9 trillion Sterling into USD becomes - 3.78$ trillion USD
7) no conversion - 30.12$ trillion USD

Adding in a few others for comparison

1) Australia - 889$ billion AUD in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 50.9% combined debt to GDP ratio
2) Spain - 1.69$ trillion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 103.4% combined debt to GDP ratio
3) South Korea - 875$ billion USD in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 54% combined debt to GDP ratio
4) The Netherlands - 533$ billion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 45% combined debt to GDP ratio

 

[IKnowNothing]

This is all of us, and all of our descendants for eternity…

• Public debt charges are expected to increase from $55.6 billion in 2025-26 to $76.1 billion in 2029-30 and $137 billion by 2035. Wow. That’s a $20.5 billion projected increase in 5 years or 36.9% and a $75 billion increase in 10 years or 149% in 2025 dollars.
• By 2032 public debt charges will exceed the amount of personal income tax paid through private sector employment income tax deduction in Canada.
• Investment taxes, capital gains taxes, investment equity transfers, home sales taxes, property equity tax, estate and other family transfer taxes will markedly increase and in the case of home equity taxation, will forever break the model of prosperity associated with home ownership in Canada.

Moody’s Investment post budget call strongly stating taxing home equity is the only way forward to sustain the massive budget in a declining GDP economy.

Point of clarification- when people see a financial/economic opinion assigned to "Moody's" it gets taken with the weight one would assign to the internationally trusted and counted upon credit rating / analytics firm.

Canada has an interesting interpretive wrinkle in that we have Kim G.C. Moody, the the founder and principal of a boutique wealth/tax advisory firm, board member of various Canadian CPA/Tax groups etc, part-time political and financial commentator. He undoubtedly knows his shit in his realm of expertise and is a respected voice, but he's not Moody's. He's a Canadian citizen with a platform that he uses for his own biases and agenda.

The post you quoted came from the latter.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Carney might actually fix this mess if virtue signallers stay out of his way. It might even be better with a majority government.

Not sure if you're being facetious, but it would likely be better than the current situation yes. With a majority he would have the latitude and safety to make the deeply unpopular "hard choices" early in a mandate without fear of the government falling. As it is he has to play politics- both in terms of avoiding being toppled and doing something that would mobilize voters against him should the government fall -hence no reductions in transfers to persons and the deficit staying as high as it is.

But that majority would come with the caveat that it would also create the opportunity and expectation to throw more bones to wings of the LPC tent- gun control lobby, greens etc. Not good.

The best situation would be an LPC minority with a patriotic CPC leader that put country before ambition, and put in the work to influence the budget (and policy writ large) in exchange for providing the support necessary to do said hard choice / unpopular things. A reverse Singh. We're so damn close, which makes it all the more frustrating

 

[Altair]

Thanks. Doesn't look like he spent more than the other parties combined to me.


Yeah his riding wanted change after 21 years. Singh lost his after 6 and Trudeau after 10.

People act like Poilievre losing his riding is some previously unheard of bombshell. Like it's the first time a MP had lost their seat. That just speaks to prioritizing attacking Poilievre and not what the Liberal party left us after 10 years. Besides, we would still be enjoying Trudeau and all his crying glory if it wasn't for Poilievre. He deserves a golden beaver statue for that.

The quote was spent more than other parties combined, not spent more than all the other parties combined.

So technically spending more than

LPC+NDP=correct.

LPC+Bloc=correct.

NDP +Bloc=correct.

As for his riding, spending amongst the least for his constituents amongst all the MPs in canada might have played a role. The PM at the time spent more in Papineau PP did in his own riding, and he was off on vacations and g7 summits all the time. It's a bad look.

 

[Altair]

Yes, there is a bit of smoke and mirrors with the sovereign vs non-sovereign debt numbers going on, 100% true statement - but, with that being said our numbers are still much much better that the other G7 countries.

1) Canada - 2.3$ trillion CAD in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 74.8% combined debt to GDP ratio
2) Germany - 2.55$ trillion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 62.4% combined debt to GDP ratio
3) Italy - 3.08$ trillion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 137% combined debt to GDP ratio
4) France - 3.416$ trillion EUR in federal, departments, municipal debs - 115.6% combined debt to GDP ratio
5) Japan - 1,324 trillion YEN in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 230% combined debt to GDP ratio - Japan is the most indebted western nation
6) UK - 2.9$ trillion Sterling in federal, municipal debts - 101% combined debt to GDP ratio
7) US - 30.12$ trillion USD in federal, state, municipal debts - 125% combined debt to GDP ratio

Converting CAD into USD and EUR into USD for the above numbers

1) 2.3$ trillion CAD into USD becomes - 1.63$ trillion USD
2) 2.55$ trillion EUR into USD becomes - 2.93$ trillion USD
3) 3.08$ trillion EUR into USD becomes - 3.54$ trillion USD
4) 3.41$ trillion EUR into USD becomes - 3.93$ trillion USD
5) 1,324$ trillion YEN into USD becomes - 8.61$ trillion USD - I'm pretty sure I did the conversion on this correct
6) 2.9 trillion Sterling into USD becomes - 3.78$ trillion USD
7) no conversion - 30.12$ trillion USD

Adding in a few others for comparison

1) Australia - 889$ billion AUD in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 50.9% combined debt to GDP ratio
2) Spain - 1.69$ trillion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 103.4% combined debt to GDP ratio
3) South Korea - 875$ billion USD in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 54% combined debt to GDP ratio
4) The Netherlands - 533$ billion EUR in federal, provincial, municipal debts - 45% combined debt to GDP ratio

And if it were not for Russia running wild in eastern Europe most countries could actually pay down some debt but no. Defense spending is about to surge.

I expect France to fall into the debt trap cycle first, followed by Italy. Japan is already in it.

 

[Jarnhamar]

The quote was spent more than other parties combined, not spent more than all the other parties combined.

You're going to hurt you back stretching like that. Under Trudeau billions lined the pockets of who knows. Something in the ball park of $50B. Your man was a dud that gave us this stinker.



And anyone who voted Liberal has DNA on this. Sorry.

But thanks to Poilievre we at least have Carney. And a nice pay raise.

 

[Altair]

You're going to hurt you back stretching like that. Under Trudeau billions lined the pockets of who knows. Something in the ball park of $50B. Your man was a dud that gave us this stinker.

View attachment 96613

And anyone who voted Liberal has DNA on this. Sorry.

But thanks to Poilievre we at least have Carney. And a nice pay raise.

Nice dodge neo.

 

[Halifax Tar]

But thanks to Poilievre we at least have Carney. And a nice pay raise.

Agreed. But as I have said before perhaps PP needs a JT.

I will support the CPC in the next election, because I simply cannot vote for a Liberal ever again I don't think, but I think the CPC could do better.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Not sure if you're being facetious,

Nope.

A minority government was important for the Trudeau Liberals to try and keep them in check. It didn't really work that well, but it was better than nothing. Taking a gamble that Carney isn't the paragon of no transparency and no ethics that Trudeau was, giving Carney a majority would mean he can make those hard decisions that you mention. Big gamble.


As for guns, Canada's growing demographic doesn't seem to appreciate personal firearm ownership. On the same note, should Canada's growing demographics be trusted owning firearms? Maybe it should just be LEO and military who can touch firearms in Canada.

Do you really need to hunt for food? So what if a large whitetail deer can provide 60-90lbs of boned out meat. Just pay $40/kg for some Ribeye. Or whatever cut of meat peasants eat

 

[Czech_pivo]

And if it were not for Russia running wild in eastern Europe most countries could actually pay down some debt but no. Defense spending is about to surge.

I expect France to fall into the debt trap cycle first, followed by Italy. Japan is already in it.

Japan is truly f*cked because they don't have any meaningful net new immigration occurring and their continued downwards trend on population levels is what is going to bury them going forward.

France hasn't hit that point and their policies over the last 20yrs on increasing internal family sizes through tax breaks/incentives (coupled with large numbers of acceptance of refugees) has stemmed their overall loss of population. These tax breaks can and do work if properly implemented. Hav a look at the new policy Poland has just launched, basically no income tax at all (under a certain overall income level) if a family has 3 or more children.

 

[Halifax Tar]

As for guns, Canada's growing demographic doesn't seem to appreciate personal firearm ownership. On the same note, should Canada's growing demographics be trusted owning firearms? Maybe it should just be LEO and military who can touch firearms in Canada.

Do you really need to hunt for food? So what if a large whitetail deer can provide 60-90lbs of boned out meat. Just pay $40/kg for some Ribeye. Or whatever cut of meat peasants eat

Slow your roll cowboy...

 

[Altair]

Japan is truly f*cked because they don't have any meaningful net new immigration occurring and their continued downwards trend on population levels is what is going to bury them going forward.

France hasn't hit that point and their policies over the last 20yrs on increasing internal family sizes through tax breaks/incentives (coupled with large numbers of acceptance of refugees) has stemmed their overall loss of population. These tax breaks can and do work if properly implemented. Hav a look at the new policy Poland has just launched, basically no income tax at all (under a certain overall income level) if a family has 3 or more children.

France also has a retirement age of 60.

It negates a lot of their better shaped population demographics.

That and France has a lot of low interest bonds coming due, which over the next 10 years will triple their borrowing costs. Their current bond yields are topping Italy.

The only reason I have them sinking before Italy is because Italy is actually able to be governed. France is in political deadlock.

 

[Altair]

You're going to hurt you back stretching like that. Under Trudeau billions lined the pockets of who knows. Something in the ball park of $50B. Your man was a dud that gave us this stinker.

View attachment 96613

And anyone who voted Liberal has DNA on this. Sorry.

But thanks to Poilievre we at least have Carney. And a nice pay raise.

Also, to double back on this...GDP per capita is a very broken metric.

You know that Mississippi has a GDP per capita on par with Germany?

Doesn't sound right, does it. Germany looks far wealthier than Mississippi. And guess what? You would be right. Because German GDP per capita is actually closely linked to median income per citizen, both at around 55k.

Meanwhile, GDP per capita in Mississippi is 53k but median household income....30k.

But keep talking GDP per capita. It's a very very useful metric.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Also, to double back on this...GDP per capita is a very broken metric.

I'm afraid you’re conflating GDP per capita with median income. They measure different things. GDP per capita isn’t meant to reflect median income or inequality. Mississippi’s numbers don’t invalidate the metric, they just highlight uneven distribution.

 

[Altair]

I'm afraid you’re conflating GDP per capita with median income. They measure different things. GDP per capita isn’t meant to reflect median income or inequality. Mississippi’s numbers don’t invalidate the metric, they just highlight uneven distribution.

GDP per capita is mean to somehow measure how "wealthy" a jurisdiction is.

It fails at that.

Lets look at Ireland.

GDP per capita of 133k.

Rich, right?

No.

All the tech giants have their offices in Ireland and pay little to no taxes, which means their GDP on paper looks great, but the wealth of the average Irish citizen and the country of Ireland itself is largely unchanged.

GDP per capita is one of the stupidest metrics to measure anything. The metric itself though, not the person using the metric. I mean no offense.

 

[Furniture]

Japan is truly f*cked because they don't have any meaningful net new immigration occurring and their continued downwards trend on population levels is what is going to bury them going forward.

France hasn't hit that point and their policies over the last 20yrs on increasing internal family sizes through tax breaks/incentives (coupled with large numbers of acceptance of refugees) has stemmed their overall loss of population. These tax breaks can and do work if properly implemented. Hav a look at the new policy Poland has just launched, basically no income tax at all (under a certain overall income level) if a family has 3 or more children.

Japan is less fucked in some ways though. Like the fact they remain a largely homogeneous society, and lack the religious and racial tensions that France faces.

Diversity can be a strength if managed correctly, but if not well managed, it's how societies fracture and collapse. France seems to be heading toward the latter outcome, so all those refugees and immigrants may not be the boon people think they are.

 

[ArmyRick]

Well, now @Lumber for those of us who CRITICIZE the LPC constantly (or if it makes you feel better, call me an LPC hater, but I was a Paul Martin fan and am disappointed Mark is not that caliber of Liberal),

The Budget. 78B deficit is better than 100B I guess, thats like finding out you only have to eat a 5 lbs shit sandwich rather than an 8 LBS shit sandwich.

Why does the CBC need an additional 150 million? They need way less IMO. The CBC is just a liberal propaganda machine.

I am happy about DND getting more cash and hope to see it go through. Does CAF share that with the Coast Guard?

I must of missed it but does CBSA and RCMP get more bread?

Removing emissions cap? I like that "vibe"

On Chris D'Entremount crossing. If he received a flurry of emails and calls asking him to do it from his constituents, so be it. If he plans to run again, he faces his electors and they will pass judgement. Take note a month ago he sharply criticized the Carney government for high cost of living. So now he is ok with it?

 

[Haggis]

I must of missed it but does CBSA and RCMP get more bread?

There's more money allocated to the gun grab ($364M) than to increasing the number of BSOs ($196M) in FY 25/26. and $217M for guns and $96M for CBSA in FY 26/27.

 

[Jarnhamar]

GDP per capita ....

Again, that’s not quite right. GDP per capita measures total economic output per person, not personal wealth or tax distribution. Irelands high GDP per capita reflects economic activity, not average citizen income. That doesn’t make the metric stupid, it just needs to be interpreted correctly alongside other measures like median income or GNI.

I mean no offense.

Shucks, I'm not smart enough to be offended. I will take an emt to [email protected] for reparations on that whole gun ban thing though. It will help with my GDP (Gun Down Payment).

 

[ArmyRick]

There's more money allocated to the gun grab than to increasing the number of Mounties and BSOs.

That sucks, I thought CBSA was a priority? It should be.