Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Remius]

i think it will depend on who defects, will this be a trickle or flood gates?

Flood gate might not happen but two or three is just as bad in my opinion.

I’m am certain that a few just can’t see themselves reflected in what is the current state of the CPC.

 

[brihard]

Flood gate might not happen but two or three is just as bad in my opinion.

I’m am certain that a few just can’t see themselves reflected in what is the current state of the CPC.

PMMC will want one or two extras as a buffer against the usual personal or professional ills or life events that happen to a majority government’s worth of MPs over three years.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Japan has some serious demographic challenges but they:

-remain the 3rd or 4th largest economy in the world;
-have extremely high productivity;
-have massive capital reserves;
-are a world leader in automation and robotics;
-have social stability;
-low crime;
-high quality of life; and
-strong export industries.

They're also not being flooded with new guests.

These strengths give it more resilience than many other declining population countries. Smaller but still wealthy.

Yes, in 25yrs when I'm 80yrs old it will be the perfect place to go and have a wonder vacation where I'll interact with more AI robots than people. Maybe I'll be able to bring back a PSW AI robot who looks about 30yrs old and fits my preferences and is able to assist me in and out of the shower.

 

[Furniture]

Homogeneous shrinking society with 1 out of every 3 people being retired taking on more and more debt with a population getting smaller and smaller.

For every retiree there are 2 workers in Japan, clocking 50-60 hours of work per week. And despite this overwork, their debt keeps getting bigger.

Japan is fucked.

I never said they weren't, I was pointing out that France is too... Just in a dofferent way.

 

[Altair]

Japan has some serious demographic challenges but they:

-remain the 3rd or 4th largest economy in the world;
-have extremely high productivity;
-have massive capital reserves;
-are a world leader in automation and robotics;
-have social stability;
-low crime;
-high quality of life; and
-strong export industries.

They're also not being flooded with new guests.

These strengths give it more resilience than many other declining population countries. Smaller but still wealthy.

A few things.

Their incredibly high productivity is fed by karoshi, death by overwork. karoshi is also a really bad environment to have a child in, which contributes to their plummeting birth rate.

The quality of life will start to plummet as well, as more and more of their budget is taken up by health care for the elderly, and OAS.

Toss on top of that Trump dropping the tariff hammer on them, and their export lead economy isn't looking so hot.

Sure, their society is largely homogeneous, but shrinking and homogeneous is not a enviable position to be in. They are firmly in the debt trap cycle, and they have no way to get out of it.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Does PP survive his review if the LPC get a majority due to CPC defections?

I will relent and say I am worried about the CPC and Conservative representation now.

As I have also said before, never doubt the CPCs ability to snatch loss from the jaws of victory.

I will still not put my X beside an LPC candidate at this time.

 

[Altair]

I never said they weren't, I was pointing out that France is too... Just in a dofferent way.

There are many paths to failure.

The G7 seems to enjoy finding all of them.

 

[Altair]

I will relent and say I am worried about the CPC and Conservative representation now.

A lot depends on the next few days.

As I have also said before, never doubt the CPCs ability to snatch loss from the jaws of victory.

Yeah, they are very skilled at that.

I will still not put my X beside an LPC candidate at this time.

No need. Vote for a CPC candidate, get a LPC candidate anyways.


I jest of course.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I will relent and say I am worried about the CPC and Conservative representation now.

As I have also said before, never doubt the CPCs ability to snatch loss from the jaws of victory.

I will still not put my X beside an LPC candidate at this time.

What if that LPC is a former CPC/PC MP who crossed the floor and you voted for them in the past.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Does PP survive his review if the LPC get a majority due to CPC defections?

Like I said last night- it depends more on the extent of the grassroots/social media hold PP has on the membership and whether he's willing to throw that weight around against a caucus that hypothetically wanted him out.

 

[Halifax Tar]

What if that LPC is a former CPC/PC MP who crossed the floor and you voted for them in the past.

I need a full flush of the party in order to get me back.

 

[Altair]

Like I said last night- it depends more on the extent of the grassroots/social media hold PP has on the membership and whether he's willing to throw that weight around against a caucus that hypothetically wanted him out.

Reform act?

 

[Remius]

Like I said last night- it depends more on the extent of the grassroots/social media hold PP has on the membership and whether he's willing to throw that weight around against a caucus that hypothetically wanted him out.

This is it.

There is no rebellion. And no heir apparent. PP has the party firmly in his grasp. His base is solid and committed.

It looks to me like anyone who would offer any resistance have opted or will opt to vote with their feet.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Reform act?

Will they bother using it if he issues a backroom warning that amounts to a more eloquent equivalent of "f you, I have the membership/delegates- if you vote me out I will run and win in the resultant leadership contest and I will remember my friends/enemies"

 

[Remius]

I need a full flush of the party in order to get me back.

Are you not an actual member of the LPC? What if they brought back Arya or Ruby? You seemed to really like them

 

[Halifax Tar]

Are you not an actual member of the LPC? What if they brought back Arya or Ruby? You seemed to really like them

I sure am! That doesn't mean I am voting for them.

 

[brihard]

CPC MP Dominique Vien has stated in a video today that she opposes the budget and has no intention of leaving the Conservatives.

Dominique Vien dément un passage chez les libéraux - La Voix du Sud

Députée fédérale de Bellechasse - Les Etchemins - Lévis, Dominique Vien a tenu à répondre négativement aux rumeurs qui l'envoient chez les libéraux fédéraux ou comme indépendante depuis mardi soir.

www.lavoixdusud.com

Nothing heard from Joel Godin yet today one way or the other. With Vien having spoken publicly on the floor crossing rumours I would expect him to soon as well.

I expect over the next few days other names will get rumoured and debunked. With no vote until the 17th, the LPC have some time to play with.

 

[Altair]

Will they bother using it if warns a more eloquent equivalent of "f you, I have the membership/delegates- if you vote me out I will run and win in the resultant leadership contest and I will remember my friends/enemies"

Red Tories seem to have an escape hatch if they end up on the enemies list.

I'm not going to lie, I didn't have a Tory rebellion on my 2025 bingo card, but I guess with a Red Tory in Carney running the LPC it makes it much more tolerable to cross the floor.

 

[Remius]

CPC MP Dominique Vien has stated in a video today that she opposes the budget and has no intention of leaving the Conservatives.

Dominique Vien dément un passage chez les libéraux - La Voix du Sud

Députée fédérale de Bellechasse - Les Etchemins - Lévis, Dominique Vien a tenu à répondre négativement aux rumeurs qui l'envoient chez les libéraux fédéraux ou comme indépendante depuis mardi soir.

www.lavoixdusud.com

Nothing heard from Joel Godin yet today one way or the other. With Vien having spoken publicly on the floor crossing rumours I would expect him to soon as well.

I expect over the next few days other names will get rumoured and debunked. With no vote until the 17th, the LPC have some time to play with.

Could be the next one or ones will be when the vote happens

 

[Remius]

Red Tories seem to have an escape hatch if they end up on the enemies list.

I'm not going to lie, I didn't have a Tory rebellion on my 2025 bingo card, but I guess with a Red Tory in Carney running the LPC it makes it much more tolerable to cross the floor.

No rebellion. Desertion yes. But I see no rebellion against PP.