The Economist, working with GlobeScan, a consulting and polling firm, asked 32,000 people in 32 countries for their views on China and America between July and September. The results are startling. Since we last asked the question a year ago, China has made big gains as the world’s preferred “leading power” (see chart 1). The share of respondents favouring China jumped by 11 percentage points to an average of 33%. Meanwhile, support for America slipped below a global majority to 46%.
China wants to be seen as America’s peer. Preference for China as the world’s leading power has risen in every place sampled by GlobeScan. Perhaps most surprisingly, that includes America, where support for Chinese leadership doubled to (a still low) 6%. Meanwhile, two in every five Americans thought that China’s influence in the world was “mainly positive”, up from a quarter during Mr Trump’s first term.
Preference for China strongly correlates with age: the younger the respondent, the more likely they are to welcome Chinese leadership (see chart 2). Among 18- to 24-year-olds America and China are nearly tied for support at 41% and 39% respectively. Among those over 65 years old, America has a commanding 30-point lead. Many youngsters use Chinese products and services, like the video-sharing sensation TikTok, or follow social-media influencers who have visited China.
When it comes to picking China as the leading power, the largest regional increases were in Latin America and Europe. In Brazil, Canada, Mexico, South Africa and Spain, preferences for China rose (and support for America fell) by about 20 percentage points. The single largest increase was in Indonesia, where support for China leapt by 23 percentage points to 62% to make it the second-most pro-China country, behind Egypt. There were only fractional rises in China’s neighbours. Security concerns dominate views of China in Japan and South Korea, where no more than 5% of respondents preferred China.