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Trump administration 2024-2028

Czech_pivo said:
He can resist but in the end the market will dictate what is to happen.
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Yeah, that's how trump appointees work.
Czech_pivo said:
In today’s meeting he had 3 members of the Fed strongly supporting the raising of interest rates.
If July and August inflation numbers come in above 3-3.2% the pressure builds even more for a raise in September.
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It's at 3.5 right now and he is resisting. Colour me not impressed.
 
Czech_pivo said:
There are parallels between 2007 and now.
  • valuation of the stock market
  • rising bonds rates
  • greater number of individuals unable to carry their debt loads
  • lower labour participation rates.

The bomb dropped 1 yr later from the highs of 2007.
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Yup.

Buckle up.
 
Altair said:
And people compare Canada and the USA in terms of GDP growth saying Canada is a laggard why not realizing the USA is running massive deficits.

Which, if you can afford, fine, but with yields hitting 5.0%....

Maturity US Yield Canada Yield Spread (Bps)
1-Year 4.09% 2.65% +144
5-Year 4.39% 3.20% +119
10-Year 4.67% 3.53% +114
30-Year 5.20% 4.02% +118

America is barrelling towards a financial crisis or crash, Canada is pretty stable, but you hear all about the "fiscal irresponsibility" of Canada while the USA is held up as a bastian of economic prowess
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Now do the research on what a 25 basis point increase on the 30yr does to the amount of extra interest paid to service the US debt.
 
Altair said:
Yeah, that's how trump appointees work.

It's at 3.5 right now and he is resisting. Colour me not impressed.
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It’s too early to raise the rates, once you start you never just do 1 raise, it’s 2-3 or even more.
If they can bring inflation down to 2.8 or less consistently, they won’t move the rates.
 
Czech_pivo said:
Now do the research on what a 25 basis point increase on the 30yr does to the amount of extra interest paid to service the US debt.
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For each 25 basis point increase on the Fed rate, the US has to pay another 27 billion USD a year on their debt….

50 basis points is another 150-190$ billion a year in interest payments on their debt.
 
Czech_pivo said:
Apple cart could easily be overturned by September/October when the Fed meets next.

For my two cents, they do nothing until the Nov mid-terms and then, regardless of Trump wins or loses Congress and/or the Senate, they raise rates 25 basis points and then another 25 in January.
It’s never ‘one and done’ with the Fed, it’s 2 or more.

CAD will fall accordingly if they raise interest rates and we don’t. Our ability to have CUSMA signed or not signed will have zero bearing on this. Higher rates translates into a greater flow of foreign capital to take advantage of this.

A lower CAD means higher imported goods - think imported fruit/veggies, autos, computers, clothes, everything that’s imported. To offset this, we’ll make more money on our exports to the US as well earn USD on those exports. Also means that the US may in fact import more from us since the CAD will most likely be around 68-70 cents.
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Could we bolster that by calling in US treasuries to stabilize the CAD? Im pretty past caring about negative consequences for the average American. Get out before we're left holding the bag sort of deal.
 
Czech_pivo said:
There are parallels between 2007 and now.
  • valuation of the stock market
  • rising bonds rates
  • greater number of individuals unable to carry their debt loads
  • lower labour participation rates.

The bomb dropped 1 yr later from the highs of 2007.
Click to expand...
If one of the AI hyperscalers goes tits up from their unprofitability - thatll be the catalyst imo.
 
www.theguardian.com

US government map of Africa mislabels every country at global conference

State department ‘takes full responsibility’ for erroneous, widely shared chart displayed at Aids conference in Brazil
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Want to know what happens when you fire every competent person in the federal government? This is what happens when you fire every competent person in the federal government

1785439632927.png
 
Altair said:
www.theguardian.com

US government map of Africa mislabels every country at global conference

State department ‘takes full responsibility’ for erroneous, widely shared chart displayed at Aids conference in Brazil
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Want to know what happens when you fire every competent person in the federal government? This is what happens when you fire every competent person in the federal government

View attachment 101508
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That has to be a joke and is not correct. Look at the information displayed in the box on the lower left - data/information has been completely moved around.
 
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