Trump administration 2024-2028

[Altair]

Now do the research on what a 25 basis point increase on the 30yr does to the amount of extra interest paid to service the US debt.

Is it the job of the Fed to keep US deficits down?

 

[PrairieFella]

Apple cart could easily be overturned by September/October when the Fed meets next.

For my two cents, they do nothing until the Nov mid-terms and then, regardless of Trump wins or loses Congress and/or the Senate, they raise rates 25 basis points and then another 25 in January.
It’s never ‘one and done’ with the Fed, it’s 2 or more.

CAD will fall accordingly if they raise interest rates and we don’t. Our ability to have CUSMA signed or not signed will have zero bearing on this. Higher rates translates into a greater flow of foreign capital to take advantage of this.

A lower CAD means higher imported goods - think imported fruit/veggies, autos, computers, clothes, everything that’s imported. To offset this, we’ll make more money on our exports to the US as well earn USD on those exports. Also means that the US may in fact import more from us since the CAD will most likely be around 68-70 cents.

Could we bolster that by calling in US treasuries to stabilize the CAD? Im pretty past caring about negative consequences for the average American. Get out before we're left holding the bag sort of deal.

 

[PrairieFella]

There are parallels between 2007 and now.

• valuation of the stock market
• rising bonds rates
• greater number of individuals unable to carry their debt loads
• lower labour participation rates.

The bomb dropped 1 yr later from the highs of 2007.

If one of the AI hyperscalers goes tits up from their unprofitability - thatll be the catalyst imo.