Iran Super Thread- Merged

[KevinB]

CT = Malaya.

Ah, the Malay Emergency.
I wouldn’t use that as a good example for any COIN Op.
I don’t see a lot of parallels between it and Iran anyway.

As for amnesty, it's the low level types you mostly want to decide that this is no longer their fight and they have better options.

What options?
I understand what you’re trying for, but the issue is that currently there isn’t a lot that anyone can offer them.

There were riots there early this year and at one point the IRGC lost control of the city there to the protestors, I don't think they have as many fighter there as you might think.

They don’t need to have a lot of fighters on the Island to make it a mess.
Landing on it would expose a lot of soldiers and/or Marines.
Then supply them would be a logistical nightmare. Heck the IRGC could entirely unoppose the landing, solely choosing interdict supplies, and make it a massive disaster for any troops on the island.

The western half of Qeshm is lightly populated, you can land there and work towards the city. Fresh water would be a factor for both the attacking force and defenders.

Cities. They have a few, but beyond that the terrain is ugly. Defenders paradise some may say.
Fresh water I think has to go on the side of the native forces, as one would assume they have protected sources.

IRGC is approx 150,000, with 300,000 to 600,000 Basjic milita , it sounds like a lot, but Iran is big and they have to be spread out to maintain control of the population centres.

I think you are underestimating their size and integration into society.
I tend to beleive that the Wiki number of 190k IRGC is a tad low, but let’s ignore that for now.
The Basjic Militia is a tougher number to lockdown with OS info.
USG OS assessments put them from 400k-650k active, and multiple millions in inactive reserves.
Iran has claimed over 12.6m, additionally had over 20 all Female Battalions and at least 2 Brigades of all female forces.

*Now how the events of the past few years have affected the numbers of females, or just as importantly the IRGC’s willingness to activate them I cannot find any OS info.


Then that doesn’t even consider the Iranian Army.

Short answer is one needs to consider that Iran has an active ground force of approx 1m.
With the ability to at least double it, and most likely much more.


Invading Iran conventional is beyond stupid. No western nation will take the risk of the anticipated body count.

There is zero quick solution to Iran. Anyone looking to get a grand slam before an election cycle is entirely unqualified to get an opinion.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Iranian army is not trusted by the IRGC, so I don't see them being given the ammunition and fuel to be an effective fighting force. Likley they are going to be sent to border areas with minimal ammo and fuel to keep them away from the cities or confined to barracks.
The IRGC had to bring in foreigners to shoot the citizens, so I am guessing their militas are not as effective as they would like to claim. As for the female units, there was video about a month ago of checkpoint manned by women and driving around in technicals.

Going for the Islands is likely safer than driving through the borders and southern Iraq would not make a safe haven for your logistical hubs, once you hold the main island, you can saturate the coastal areas of Iran with FPV and fiber optic drones and bottle up most of their fleet of remaining small craft. I still suspect it's a safer option than driving through Iraq, then Iran.

My guess is if the regime does not fall from within, then eventually someone is going to have to invade. I don't see a return to the previous status quo after this. The west should really be standing up the "Free Persian Forces" and training/arming them.