Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[ytz]

You have to ask yourself this question - 'Is the end game of DT to put the US in such a bad fiscal position that it has no choice but to in effect declare bankruptcy?' Its the world's reserve currency still, so it can basically do whatever it wants (still at this point this is true), so if it decides to print money 24hrs a day, every day there is nothing that the rest of the world can do.

The fact that countries like The Netherlands, Germany, France, China, UK, etc are all vastly reducing the amount of gold that they store in the US is a telling fact. Why move it now vs moving it back in 1985 during the height of the Cold War with Reagan going on about the 'Evil Empire' and such?

The last time The Netherlands moved gold from the US back to The Netherlands was about 6months before Nixon killed the 'Gold Standard' in 1973 and as the story goes, Paul Voker (before he was Fed Chairman) personally flew out to Amsterdam to 'beg' the Dutch not to move the gold. The Dutch, being Dutch, listened politely to what he had to say and then moved the gold anyways. Six months later Nixon killed the Gold Standard. I'm not saying that there is a direct correlation between Paul Voker in 1973 flying to Amsterdam and the Dutch announcing last week that they are moving gold from NYC back to Holland, but history does have a way of repeating itself.

I'm not one for conspiracy theories. I just think they are clueless, panicked and desperate. And they are starting to understand that huffing their own farts on all that ideology isn't actually delivering results. Turns out you can't tax cut your way to a balanced budget. Turns out that you can't keep running insane deficits without the bond market noticing. And now it turns out that their trillion dollar military can't subdue a bunch of ass backward Ayatollahs in the Middle East. There's no need for conspiracy theories when the desperation and flop sweat gets more obvious by the day.

 

[PrairieFella]

The US Social Security Trust Fund is 6 years from running empty.

And if they tried to balance their federal budget exclusively using GST, they'd have to impose a 20% GST. As per a discussion I heard from Mike Moffat on a recent podcast.

The US is actually third in the G7 for their debt ratio. Behind freaking Italy and Japan. That should tell you how bad it is. Canada is middle of the pack. The UK and Germany do better than us. But we're 15 perecentage points of GDP behind the US and that gap is growing.

So I expect a lot more turmoil and turbulence. They need to raise taxes substantially. But they can't. Politics won't allow it. So their bond rates keep going up. Which only makes the working and middle class more unhappy. So they are trying to tax their people more through tariffs. But they don't use that to reduce the deficit. They use it for more military spending and tax cuts. Which makes it all worse. And those tariffs mess up trade. And is a reason to cut bond holdings for trading partners...which spikes bond yields. It's all a mess. Their decades of mismanagement is coming home to roost. And they need a foil to distract. Hence, trade wars with countries that are doing better, like Canada.

I don't give a shit what Carney has in his personal portfolio or what he did while CEO at Brookfield (where he had fiduciary duties not a personal fiefdom). I am glad that he understands the above and is legitimately trying to play the long game.

Solution - another 10 gorillion dollars to lockmart. Thatll teach em.

 

[Jarnhamar]

So it is okay for Caney as an individual to hold longstanding investments if they are in a trust? Or do all politicians all have to divest themselves of all investments?

Good question. I don't really have a confident answer.

I think the whole trust screen is exactly that, a screen and not a wall. Or concealment vs cover maybe?

It's not fair to ask or expect politicians to dump all their investments. At the same time when a politician is in a pivotal decision making position it's fair to want transparency when it comes to dealing with companies they have investments in. For example Carney has stock in Lockheed Martin and L3Harris (and so do I).
A reasonable person would want their investments to well.

 

[ytz]

Solution - another 10 gorillion dollars to lockmart. Thatll teach em.

You're wrong here. The US Tech Sector is 18 times the size of the US Defence Industry on market capitalization, 12x on profitability and 6x on share of GDP.

OSAMA are the new kings of American industry:

Open AI
Space X
Anthropic
Meta
Alphabet

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Not sure much the farms but the hotels, the restaurant chains, nail them. Do a blitz in NYC, Chicago, LA, Atlanta, Dallas of all the Hiltons/Holiday Inn's/Marriott's on a Thursday morning before a long weekend and see the uproar that would cause.

Don't forget hospitals, retirements homes, doctors, nurses. Lots of immigrants working in those places/professions.

 

[PrairieFella]

You're wrong here. The US Tech Sector is 18 times the size of the US Defence Industry on market capitalization, 12x on profitability and 6x on share of GDP.

OSAMA are the new kings of American industry:

Open AI
Space X
Anthropic
Meta
Alphabet

Basing your entire economy on 3 companies with shady fundamentals probably isnt a good play. Thats just me though. Meta and Google are at least established.

 

[ytz]

Don't forget hospitals, retirements homes, doctors, nurses. Lots of immigrants working in those places/professions.

Most of them aren't illegals though. Agriculture, food processing, restaurants and hotels, construction, etc. Those are places where you see illegals.

I have never seen anything in Canada like what you see in a Home Depot parking lot in the US, where people wait for day jobs.

 

[ytz]

Basing your entire economy on 3 companies with shady fundamentals probably isnt a good play. Thats just me though. Meta and Google are at least established.

My biggest gripe with Carney was ditching the Digital Services Tax. When you understand how big the US Tech sector is, you start to understand that nothing scares the Americans more than a DST and a willingness to ditch American software. See France making their whole government ditch Microsoft. Forget cancelling the F-35. Threaten to ditch Windows, Office and Teams and they'll actually start getting worried.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Pierre won some points with me for this answer, keeping it classy and professional

https://twitter.com/x/status/2098042902580531674

Kudos to PP. That's a solid response by him. The US loves to prattle on and on about 'united we stand' but when's the last time that has occurred? I'll tell you when - 9/11/01 - just about 25yrs ago. How the mighty have fallen.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I'm not one for conspiracy theories. I just think they are clueless, panicked and desperate. And they are starting to understand that huffing their own farts on all that ideology isn't actually delivering results. Turns out you can't tax cut your way to a balanced budget. Turns out that you can't keep running insane deficits without the bond market noticing. And now it turns out that their trillion dollar military can't subdue a bunch of ass backward Ayatollahs in the Middle East. There's no need for conspiracy theories when the desperation and flop sweat gets more obvious by the day.

I'm not as well for conspiracy. I was merely pointing out a previously occurred historical fact and calling out that a similar event just happened.

Events don't happen in isolation. There are linkages all around us. Some are easy to spot (leave out a full green bin in Toronto and you'll have a mess from raccoons), others are hardier.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Pierre won some points with me for this answer, keeping it classy and professional

https://twitter.com/x/status/2098042902580531674

He said the exact same thing on the JRE about a year ago.

 

[HavokFour]

Joint news conference with PMMC and Zelenskyy is starting shortly.

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.7338823

EDIT:

PM Carney, Zelenskyy sign 100-year deal, Canada pledges to build millions of drones

Mark Carney and Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed multiple declarations and initiatives on Thursday, including a 100-year partnership declaration and drone collaboration, during Zelenskyy’s official visit to Canada.

www.cp24.com

Standing alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney before their meeting in Calgary, Zelenskyy told reporters he was thankful for the air defence while adding he wouldn’t “spoil” what seems to be a looming announcement.

@Kirkhill

Sounds like multiple things incoming.

 

[HavokFour]

3 agreement just signed, details slowly dripping out as the conference goes on.

The leaders discussed Ukraine’s most pressing needs as Russia intensifies its aerial assault on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure ahead of winter. The Prime Minister confirmed Canada’s intent to provide additional military assistance to meet Ukraine’s urgent need for air defence systems and equipment to help protect Ukraine’s people, infrastructure, and skies. To that end, Canada will support Project Freya, Ukraine’s pan-European effort to develop a lower-cost, high-volume interceptor capable of countering Russian ballistic missile attacks.

Prime Minister Carney meets with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Prime Minister Carney and President Zelenskyy reaffirmed the strong and enduring friendship between Canada and Ukraine. The Prime Minister underscored Canada’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.

www.pm.gc.ca

Joint statement by Prime Minister Carney and President Zelenskyy

The leaders recalled that Canada was the first Western country to recognise the restoration of Ukraine’s independence on December 2, 1991, and that more than 1.3 million Canadians of Ukrainian heritage sustain the bond between the two peoples.

www.pm.gc.ca

 

[Czech_pivo]

He said the exact same thing on the JRE about a year ago.

I just watched the full interview on CNBC this morning, just under 9mins.

Speaking openly and frankly - and giving credit where credit is due - PP did a huge favour for Carney and for Canada. He clearly laid out that Canadians are 'wounded' by what Trump has done to us and called for us to go back to the table and go back to tariff free trade between us. He also did a solid job of informing the panelists and US audience that we are firmly moving ahead with diversifying our trade away from the US and on our own terms.

Personally, I'd like to see Carney publicly acknowledge and 'thank' PP for what he said. I believe that PP deserves this. PP showed the Americans that we are 'united' in this fight and that they can't divide us on this issue. If any of Trump's Cabinet watched this whole interview they may need to be re-thinking their path forward, because honestly PP did a great job in informing the US viewers that they are in the wrong on this.

 

[HavokFour]

More details.

Both leaders also just reiterated that Canada will be joining Project Freya.

Canada and Ukraine to scale up drone production, build up Canada’s defence industries, and achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine

To this end, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, welcomed the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to Canada this week to forge a new chapter in the Canada-Ukraine partnership.

www.pm.gc.ca

EDIT: Ukrainian media starting to report.

Canada is ready to contribute its technologies to the Freyja anti-ballistic program - Zelenskyy

УНН War in Ukraine ✎ Canada is ready to provide technologies for the Freyja program and has agreed to additional defense supplies. The parties are also working on the Dron…

unn.ua

Zelensky Lands in Canada, Secures Air Defense Deal Amid Global Missile Shortage

Canada pledged to contribute technology to Ukraine’s FREYJA anti-ballistic program. Zelensky said the two countries are also advancing a Drone Deal.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[PrairieFella]

Fantastic news

 

[QV]

I just watched the full interview on CNBC this morning, just under 9mins.

Speaking openly and frankly - and giving credit where credit is due - PP did a huge favour for Carney and for Canada. He clearly laid out that Canadians are 'wounded' by what Trump has done to us and called for us to go back to the table and go back to tariff free trade between us. He also did a solid job of informing the panelists and US audience that we are firmly moving ahead with diversifying our trade away from the US and on our own terms.

Personally, I'd like to see Carney publicly acknowledge and 'thank' PP for what he said. I believe that PP deserves this. PP showed the Americans that we are 'united' in this fight and that they can't divide us on this issue. If any of Trump's Cabinet watched this whole interview they may need to be re-thinking their path forward, because honestly PP did a great job in informing the US viewers that they are in the wrong on this.

Imagine if we had that guy for PM instead!

 

[Czech_pivo]

Imagine if we had that guy for PM instead!

I'm good for now.

 

[PrairieFella]

Imagine if we had that guy for PM instead!

Ill pass.

 

[brihard]

Imagine if we had that guy for PM instead!

He should consider running for office.