CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Czech_pivo]

The US Treasury Department is backstopping their bonds, in essence they becoming their own reliable buyer. How long this can go on and at what amounts remains to be seen. Bessent has publicly dared the market to bet against him. A foolish move I believe. A good chance that someone in the market's bond trading desks just said to his buddies, 'Hold my beer'....

Treasury Department to buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt, triple the normal level

The much-anticipated announcement triples the normal buyback operation and follows an announcement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

www.cnbc.com

Treasury Department to buy back $6 billion in longer-term debt, triple the normal level​

The Treasury Department on Wednesday said it will buy back $6 billion of government debt in an operation aimed at keeping bond markets functioning.
The much-anticipated announcement triples the normal buyback operation and follows an announcement Aug. 19 from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the department would at least double the normal amount for already-issued securities.

Though the operation ostensibly is aimed at keeping government debt markets liquid — in this case for 10- and 20-year notes — the extraordinary measure also has been seen as an effort to put a lid on Treasury yields, which had hit highs not seen since prior to the global financial crisis in 2008.

Market reaction, however, was negative. Treasury yields rose further, with the benchmark 10-year issue hitting 4.841%, up nearly 4 basis points on the day. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Its been 22yrs since this occurred.

1994 bond market crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'm NOT saying that this is going to occur now - but there are similarities.

1) Occurred after historically low interest rates
2) Started with Japan and the US (think USD/Yen ratio of today, BoJ bond rates above 3% today and the US bond rates highest since 2008)
3) Fed raising interest rates a 1/4 to counter inflation

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Some important dates to be aware of and understand that are most likely influencing key decisions and announcements that are coming out of our Federal Government as well out of Trump's mouth.

1) 14/15 Sept - Canada Investment Summit in Toronto

• Over 100 large scale investment institutions are attending
• From over 11 countries
  • Of which 33 are US
• 4 UAE institutions are attending that have previously announced investing over 70$B in Canadian infrastructure projects

2) 16 Sept - EU 'State of the Union' address in Strasbourg

• Carney is attending and is the keynote speaker on 17 Sept
• News reports are talking about a 'groundbreaking' new EU-Canada announcement on a wide ranging number of topics
• Could add a significant new tool in our toolbox

3) 15 Sept - Date of new tariffs to come in place from Trump

• Announced yesterday, new tariffs will be put in place against us. along with the banning of certain CDN goods from being imported to the US
• The date is key as it falls on the last day of Canada Investment Summit and the day before the EU State of the Union kick off

EDIT: Adding #4
4) 16 Sept - US Federal Reserve meeting

• The US Fed is meeting to discuss its next move on US interest rates.
• The market is currently running at a roughly 60% chance that the US will raise interest rates by 1/4
• Both Trump and Vance have loudly proclaimed that the Fed should be LOWERING interest rates at this meeting and that the US should have the lowest interest rates in the world
• A 1/4 rate interest increase will add tens of billions of the annual interest that the US has to pay on its 40 trillion nation debt - remember, they already pay 1$ trillion USD a year just on the interest on their debt
• A 1/4 rate interest increase will hit the US housing market hard as US mortgage rates will go up, affecting US affordability
• A 1/4 rate interest increase will cause the USD to appreciate in value, driving down US exports
• A 1/4 rate interest increase will cause car loan payments to increase, again affecting US affordability

5) 24 Sept - China-US Summit

• 1 Day meeting between Xi and Trump
• Trump is looking for a 'win' at home
• Totally unclear as to what will occur during this summit - the entire range of options is wide open, from 'slash and burn' the relationship all the way to 'Xi and Trump holding hands and singing Karaoke together. You pick.

5) 9 Sept onwards - US-Iran War (yes I'm calling it a 'war' because The Donald did on Truth Social over the weekend

• Continuing the 'Song That Never Ends' with no end in site.

Did I leave anything out?

Over the next 15 days, these are the items that are going to occupy the limited capacity that remains in Trump's mind. Items #1 and 2 are going to be front and center because for The Donald to 'break us in order to own us', #1 cannot be seen as a success by us and those attending and #2 cannot be allowed to occur, I suspect, under The Donald's new interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. If #1 and #2 are a success for us, then The Donald will be seen over more as a loser and mocked even more. It will have him 'look weak' in front of Xi on 24 September during the summit in the US.

Love to hear feedback, additional points, counterpoints, shortcomings, whatever. That is how I learn, broaden my understanding, expand my knowledge and more forward.

Supposed to be a big announcement in Calgary, possibly military related(UAVs)?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Supposed to be a big announcement in Calgary, possibly military related(UAVs)?

Could be.
I 'think' that Zelenskyy is to be in Calgary during his visit to Canada.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Seems to be some two way traffic

Forget 'elbows up': N.B. brewery plans to relocate to Maine for survival

Amid Canada's national rallying call of elbows up, Zoltan and Laura Fox say they've decided to lean on their American neighbour for the survival of their business.

tj.news

 

[PrairieFella]

Seems to be some two way traffic

Forget 'elbows up': N.B. brewery plans to relocate to Maine for survival

Amid Canada's national rallying call of elbows up, Zoltan and Laura Fox say they've decided to lean on their American neighbour for the survival of their business.

tj.news

Indeed.

https://www.thestar.com/business/faced-with-donald-trump-s-tariffs-this-u-s-company-is-moving-north-of-the-border-and-it-s-not-the-only-one/article_74bd6032-b9d7-4965-827c-937d3a2f6590.html

Ill exchange breweries for electronics manufacturers every day of the week lol.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Seems to be some two way traffic

Forget 'elbows up': N.B. brewery plans to relocate to Maine for survival

Amid Canada's national rallying call of elbows up, Zoltan and Laura Fox say they've decided to lean on their American neighbour for the survival of their business.

tj.news

https://archive.ph/Qo6L1 (non paywall)

If it was Moosepiss Moosehead Brewery relocating from NB to US, or establishing a brewery on the other side of the border to service the Americans who account for 10% of its sales, then it would be a big story. But "Mother Mushroom" on Campobello Island, whose sole road link is a bridge to the USA, is hardly the same. It is unfortunate that tariffs have disrupted their "...American dream... " (how they describe the journey to starting their business on a GoFundMe page seeking funds to relocate to Maine), but if your business model is founded on catering to a majority American customer base within a highly regulated sector, why would you locate it in Canada?

Home - We Are Mother Mushroom

Tariffs have crippled us. We need your help! Click here to help! Dual-Direction tariffs have collapsed our business After paying $7300 at the Canadian border in the past year and a half we are no longer able to ‘weather’ this tariff war. Due to the very unique geographical location of our...

www.wearemothermushroom.ca

I never understood the charm of Moosehead in the USA or seeing their trucks on the road in Texas when I was down there over three decades ago. I didn't drink the stuff when I was posted to Gagetown.

Moosehead faces potential blow with looming 50% beer tariff

The head of Moosehead Breweries says looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian alcohol have the potential to deliver a blow to the company's sales and shelf space south of the border.

tj.news

 

[Eaglelord17]

We also had brewers relocate some operations to Canada as well, best example being Sour Puss, which was American made but majority Canadian consumed.

 

[Cloud Cover]

We also had brewers relocate some operations to Canada as well, best example being Sour Puss, which was American made but majority Canadian consumed.

ahh, the beverage of choice at CPC conventions …

 

[PPCLI Guy]

We also had brewers relocate some operations to Canada as well, best example being Sour Puss, which was American made but majority Canadian consumed.

Apparently goes well with pinball as well @Bruce Monkhouse

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Apparently goes well with pinball as well @Bruce Monkhouse

Strangely enough pinball machines are exempt this time...

 

[daftandbarmy]

Not as bad as it might be… so far

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-retaliatory-tariffs-bans-economic-impact-9.7337788?cmp=newsletter_Evening%20Headlines%20from%20CBC%20News_1617_2190614

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Strangely enough pinball machines are exempt this time...

For my birthday my son took me to a bar that serves pinball and perogies . Open play on about 40 arcade machines for a flat rate. It was a lot of fun!

House of TARG

House of TARG is a perogi restaurant in Ottawa Canada.

www.houseoftarg.com

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

For my birthday my son took me to a bar that serves pinball and perogies . Open play on about 40 arcade machines for a flat rate. It was a lot of fun!

House of TARG

House of TARG is a perogi restaurant in Ottawa Canada.

www.houseoftarg.com

I know it quite well.....haven't had the chance to indulge for a couple of summers but the perogies are awesome.

 

[QV]

The US has a $32T USD GDP. Canada's is $2T USD.

85% of the US GDP is generated from internal trade and only 15% with the rest of the world combined.

Total trade with Canada accounts for roughly 1.5% of the USA's total GDP. But over 20% of Canada's GDP.

Canada's tariffs are on about $25B worth of goods out of a total of about $400B. This impacts about 0.08% of the total US GDP. It is estimated these tariffs would impact US inflation by about 0.02% - so nothing. Canada will feel all this pain.

The US economy is so gigantic and Canada's is so small in comparison, not to mention the disparity on internal vs external trade, a tit for tat trade war is practically suicide. Canada cannot displace its trade with the US with any other economy - this is lose/lose.

This is all political and has nothing to do with economics or what is best for Canada.

 

[Halifax Tar]

This is all political and has nothing to do with economics or what is best for Canada.

I hope to god you are wrong.

But the desire to stay in power (Gov) probably overrides just about everything.

 

[QV]

I hope to god you are wrong.

But the desire to stay in power (Gov) probably overrides just about everything.

I don't think I'm wrong. I think were just a proxy in the DNC war on Trump.

Explain this one, what signal does this send to the US:

From google:

The American strategist appointed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to his inner circle is Maia Johnson, who serves as the Chief Operating Officer (COO) in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO). [1, 2]

Key Details About Maia Johnson:

• 
  
  • Background: She is an American Democratic political strategist who previously served as Hillary Clinton's scheduling director during her 2016 presidential campaign. She is also a veteran of the Biden-Harris campaigns and the tech-driven political firm Hawkfish.
  • Connection to Carney: Before joining the PMO, Johnson worked directly with Mark Carney on international climate initiatives, including the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) and UN-related climate portfolios.
  • Role in the PMO: She was appointed as COO and senior adviser for Canada-U.S. relations during a strategic staff reshuffle. Her appointment has drawn both attention and criticism from political analysts regarding potential foreign partisan influence amid Canada's tense trade negotiations with the U.S. administration. [1, 2]

 

[dapaterson]

The US has a $32T USD GDP. Canada's is $2T USD.

85% of the US GDP is generated from internal trade and only 15% with the rest of the world combined.

Total trade with Canada accounts for roughly 1.5% of the USA's total GDP. But over 20% of Canada's GDP.

Canada's tariffs are on about $25B worth of goods out of a total of about $400B. This impacts about 0.08% of the total US GDP. It is estimated these tariffs would impact US inflation by about 0.02% - so nothing. Canada will feel all this pain.

The US economy is so gigantic and Canada's is so small in comparison, not to mention the disparity on internal vs external trade, a tit for tat trade war is practically suicide. Canada cannot displace its trade with the US with any other economy - this is lose/lose.

This is all political and has nothing to do with economics or what is best for Canada.

We get it. You want a Canada entirely subordinate to the US.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don't think I'm wrong. I think were just a proxy in the DNC war on Trump.

Explain this one, what signal does this send to the US:

From google:

The American strategist appointed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to his inner circle is Maia Johnson, who serves as the Chief Operating Officer (COO) in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO). [1, 2]

Key Details About Maia Johnson:

• 
  
  • Background: She is an American Democratic political strategist who previously served as Hillary Clinton's scheduling director during her 2016 presidential campaign. She is also a veteran of the Biden-Harris campaigns and the tech-driven political firm Hawkfish.
  • Connection to Carney: Before joining the PMO, Johnson worked directly with Mark Carney on international climate initiatives, including the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) and UN-related climate portfolios.
  • Role in the PMO: She was appointed as COO and senior adviser for Canada-U.S. relations during a strategic staff reshuffle. Her appointment has drawn both attention and criticism from political analysts regarding potential foreign partisan influence amid Canada's tense trade negotiations with the U.S. administration. [1, 2]

Who the f8Ck cares about Maia, where she comes from or where she's worked in the past. The SINGLE question should be - is she best for that role today?

Go and google who David Frum is.

He's a Canadian and was Jr Bush's speechwriter. Do you think that Republicans got their panties in a twist because their President's speechwriter was a Canadian?

David Frum also initially campaigned for the NDP when he was a youth.

He's now an independent and no longer a Republican because of Trump.

ANY competent leader hires the best qualified - trusted - person to fill their most valuable positions.

I was once a member of the old CAW (Canadian Auto Workers) when I was in University when I built Chrysler minivans in Windsor. The pay was fantastic but in order to work there I had to join the CAW and pay union dues every paycheque. Everyday going into the plant I had a 'PC Youth' party pin on my backpack and had to almost daily defend my decision to publicly declare where my political beliefs lay. Sometimes it was easy, others, well I thought I might be 'jumped' when I would go to the men's room. Didn't stop me at all. I needed the job/money and wanted to 'add to my resume' that I had worked at a large, fast paced company, in a precision, detailed oriented work environment so it would open up new doors for me. It did.

A person with 15, 20, 30+yrs of solid, progressive work experience in the business world should have a wide, wide range of industries, companies, roles and responsibilities, and world locations, in order to hold a position such as the COO to the PM of Canada who themselves has a wide, wide ranging world encompassing track record.

Would you be more happy if the PM's COO of the PMO was someone born, raised, educated only in - insert some small CDN town/city - and who in turn took a long-life job only in - insert some medium CDN city - and never lived/worked outside of the province, let alone the country, before being asked to be the COO of the PMO?

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Just goes to show how "integrated" our countries are when even the political hangabouts of any given country can be from either country.

 

[MrWhyt]

Who the f8Ck cares about Maia, where she comes from or where she's worked in the past. The SINGLE question should be - is she best for that role today?

Don't you see PM MC is merely a pawn in the game of life, having someone who used to work for the DNC in his employ means he is simply a puppet for the Democrats!! adjusts tinfoil hat