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We've been working with the Met folks to develop a Space Weather capability. Apart from just pulling data from the US.

$2M per ship. 100 ships per day. New revenue model for the Islamic Republic unlocked.

This was always the danger with this kind of war. You come at the King, you best not miss. Sure, they've substantially degraded the regime's capability. But somehow massively boosted their credibility as a threat. Imagine how the Gulf and the Levant are feeling today knowing that the US...

Tomorrow is Tuesday.

The IRGC is going through and tracking down anybody that participated in the protests. Teenagers are being arrested and executed. They want to make sure that nobody is inspired by those brave 30k. Look at oil prices and the market right now. They've succeeded in talking down oil prices and...

Yes. And I didn't realize saying, "If you can't think through shit, you shouldn't be in charge of other humans," was such a controversial idea. But I learn something new everyday.....

Military execution has been exceptional. That's a bright spot here. But that doesn't explain the gaps we see. Are you really going to buy that the Centcom commander suggested he could get the job done without additional air defence, no ARG in the region, no minesweepers and not even a second...

It depends who you arm. Talking about arming the Kurds and Balochis literally triggered centuries old anxiety about Balkanization in every Iranian. They gotta find like some ethnic Persians and train them. That's going to be a long project. Something like that they did in Afghanistan against...

I'm not sure it's that impossible either. Let's not forget, they are so scared of their own people, they considered moving the capital away from Tehran and building a brand new city in the desert. Some kind of maximum pressure sanctions campaign stopping oil. And maybe even some kind of...

See the edit I added below to clarify. Maybe you missed it: I don't think at all that your rank determines the value of your opinion. If you meet me IRL you'd learn quickly how little I care for it. I think it's competence that matters. My one rule that has stuck with me from my time as a...

100%. This would have been a lot easier before they had drones and such long range BMs. But a side effect of trying to bring democracy to Iraq is that Iran basically got a two decade pass because the US had no capacity for a third war in the region.

Genuinely wondering if they consulted the Pentagon or even Centcom. I refuse to believe this hasn't been wargamed six ways to Sunday with conplans up the wazoo. But the fact that they kicked off with such obvious gaps (low SPR, no ARG QRF, no minesweepers, insufficient AD) has me suspecting...

Answered here: Those are great goals. But if it's just those goals, then presumably they have met their goals and it's time to pack up. Guessing they don't want to talk about the implied tasks on the list, such as "Keep the Strait and Gulf open to friendly shipping". Also, would love to...

Honestly? Kinda spectacular how much Bibi is getting out of this. Gotta respect his game. Putin, Xi, the Ayatollahs, Bibi and possibly even MBS might get more out of this than Trump and the American people. That's some impressive strategic calculus.

His instinct on Iran was not wrong. The Islamic Republic is a cancer that grew because it was left unchecked. But it's exactly for that reason that competence in execution is paramount. This is probably the only chance the US will ever get in any of our lifetimes. Half assing all but...

Curious to see how much influence the Cuban refugees have after this administration gets burned by a distorted picture from Iranian exiles.

I agree that Iran is a bully. But the regime has also been there for decades. Dismantling them is not a fun night in Caracas kind of operation. It requires a sustained op for which the Americans were wholly unprepared. Contrast this with the Gulf War. George Bush built the largest...

No deployment there. Spent the majority of my childhood (11 years) there. And still have family there.

I'm not sure we can say with any certainty what would emerge. Look at Iraq. The Americans thought purging everybody with the slightest ties to the regime was a good idea. In reality, de-Baathification massively fueled the insurgency there when a whole bunch of fighting age men who just got...