Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Infanteer]

They missed their shot.

 

[NavyShooter]

I said exactly that a while back. The 30K+ protestors that were murdered by the Regime were the most likely people to foment a rebellion against it.

There are probably a few of them left, but that core of 30K people in the streets demanding change are now gone, and it'll be a tough act to step out into the streets again to start that.

 

[Remius]

Iran war live: Trump postpones strikes on Iranian power plants after 'good and productive' discussions

President Donald Trump said the U.S. has had 'good and productive conversations' with Iran and he will order the military to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

www.reuters.com

So he’s holding off for 5 days.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I said exactly that a while back. The 30K+ protestors that were murdered by the Regime were the most likely people to foment a rebellion against it.

There are probably a few of them left, but that core of 30K people in the streets demanding change are now gone, and it'll be a tough act to step out into the streets again to start that.

I hear you but if 30k out of 93m is all that they can muster in terms of 'leadership cadre' level protestors, then there is not a robust enough fifth column in the country.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Iran war live: Trump postpones strikes on Iranian power plants after 'good and productive' discussions

President Donald Trump said the U.S. has had 'good and productive conversations' with Iran and he will order the military to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

www.reuters.com

So he’s holding off for 5 days.

The stock and bond market was about to hand him is ass today, this week.

 

[Baz]

Yes.

And I didn't realize saying, "If you can't think through shit, you shouldn't be in charge of other humans," was such a controversial idea. But I learn something new everyday.....

I'm not sure it is what you said, but how you said it.

There are quite a few people on here who have commanded in operations, in various domains. Most of us have provided, or provide, our relevant experience when commenting. For some of us it is quite easy to figure out who we are and what we've done.

Your brush can be quite wide with pretty thick coverage.

Editted to add: and in the interest of not painting with too narrow a brush, command in operations is not the only measure. There are also accomplished NCOs, technical experts, SMEs, and people with robust academic backgrounds.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Put simply, it's having narrative problems. If the regime studders and collapses over the next few weeks or its offensive capacity is reduced to an acceptable level, then the narrative problems may self-correct. But right now, nobody on Army.ca or anywhere else knows if either of these will or won't happen.

Many here may be too young to remember, but there was another war (special military operation?) before where the US won all the tactical fights, but lost the war due to narrative problems back home: Vietnam.

 

[OldSolduer]

Many here may be too young to remember, but there was another war (special military operation?) before where the US won all the tactical fights, but lost the war due to narrative problems back home: Vietnam.

This - how true.

 

[PrairieFella]

Iran responded to Trump's tweet claiming theyre negotiating.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

The stock and bond market was about to hand him is ass today, this week.

Didn't AC/DC write a song about this?

Oh wait, they did!

 

[Jarnhamar]

Yes.

Nice. Future space admiral

And I didn't realize saying, "If you can't think through shit, you shouldn't be in charge of other humans," was such a controversial idea. But I learn something new everyday.....

I believe that's what you were trying to say.

Leadership should be synonymous with thinking, for sure. Makes sence to define it as the ability to anticipate and navigate complex consequences like you've mentioned a few times. I'd offer that all too often it seems to unconsciously shift to a measure of whether others reach the same conclusions as oneself. But I'll digress.

 

[brihard]

Iran war live: Trump postpones strikes on Iranian power plants after 'good and productive' discussions

President Donald Trump said the U.S. has had 'good and productive conversations' with Iran and he will order the military to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

www.reuters.com

So he’s holding off for 5 days.

Til the markets close on Friday, one might say.

Note he only says they’re pausing strikes on energy infrastructure; the rest is still game on.

I’ll be watching to see if Iran makes a point of hitting another ship or something just to show there isn’t some sort of truce.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Wonder if it's time to stock up on KBR stocks yet.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Til the markets close on Friday, one might say.

Note he only says they’re pausing strikes on energy infrastructure; the rest is still game on.

I’ll be watching to see if Iran makes a point of hitting another ship or something just to show there isn’t some sort of truce.

If Trump hits a power station in Iran, I'd say that the Iranians try and hit a desalination plant in one of the Gulf State as a response.

 

[NavyShooter]

Leadership should be synonymous with thinking, for sure. Makes sence to define it as the ability to anticipate and navigate complex consequences like you've mentioned a few times. I'd offer that all too often it seems to unconsciously shift to a measure of whether others reach the same conclusions as oneself. But I'll digress.

I recall learning once upon a time the following phrase:

"Leadership is the art of influencing human behaviour so as to accomplish the mission in the manner desired by the leader."

Not everyone uses the same type of brush when painting, and not everyone uses the same style of leadership.

There's some folks who I've learned a lot from when it comes to leadership. Some who I'd follow, some who's style I've adapted to my own, and some who I watch and have learned from so I know what not to do as a leader.

Bringing that over to the Iran/US/Isreal/etc situation, I think that there is a consolidated plan being run by the military leadership. I think that plan will run its course, and will achieve its objectives. I also think that the civilian leadership of the US is doing a very poor job of messaging the reasons, the needs, and the desired outcomes.

But.

With the 'orange dude' and his history with public speaking and such, I think there's a combination of him missing the script more often than he's hit it, and the media deliberately cueing to only parts of what is being said to make him look worse.

Observe that BBC News got caught creatively editing Hesgeth's speech not that long ago.

Observe also that our own national broadcaster was recently accused of only focusing on negative coverage of the leader of the opposition....and the only way he's managed to get out from under that thumb is to have gone on a podcast south of the border.

Leadership needs to communicate clearly, and while that may be happening internal to the military involved, it is certainly not happening with the civilian leadership.

NS

 

[brihard]

If Trump hits a power station in Iran, I'd say that the Iranians try and hit a desalination plant in one of the Gulf State as a response.

Iran has explicitly said that and have specifically identified a variety of power plants and desalination plants that they’ll target. This is not ‘fix it in a week’ infrastructure.

 

[The Bread Guy]

OSINT vs. "BROSINT" ....

Situational Unawareness | Tyler McBrien

Someone needs to monitor the situation monitors.

thebaffler.com

Archived link

 

[brihard]

OSINT vs. "BROSINT" ....

Situational Unawareness | Tyler McBrien

Someone needs to monitor the situation monitors.

thebaffler.com

Archived link

“Hypercharged doomscrolling”. Nicely put.

 

[ytz]

I said exactly that a while back. The 30K+ protestors that were murdered by the Regime were the most likely people to foment a rebellion against it.

There are probably a few of them left, but that core of 30K people in the streets demanding change are now gone, and it'll be a tough act to step out into the streets again to start that.

The IRGC is going through and tracking down anybody that participated in the protests. Teenagers are being arrested and executed. They want to make sure that nobody is inspired by those brave 30k.

The stock and bond market was about to hand him is ass today, this week.

Look at oil prices and the market right now. They've succeeded in talking down oil prices and creating a market rebound.

We're in an interesting dynamic now. The US and Israel are starting to run out of deliberate targets. The Iranians are starting to basically toll the Strait. They may try to drive up oil and gas prices. While The administration is trying to talk them down.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The IRGC is going through and tracking down anybody that participated in the protests. Teenagers are being arrested and executed. They want to make sure that nobody is inspired by those brave 30k.



Look at oil prices and the market right now. They've succeeded in talking down oil prices and creating a market rebound.

We're in an interesting dynamic now. The US and Israel are starting to run out of deliberate targets. The Iranians are starting to basically toll the Strait. They may try to drive up oil and gas prices. While The administration is trying to talk them down.

My 2 cents, Trump did this from a purely dis-information campaign to rally the markets. The market was on the verge of getting away from him. It very well still can, I don't see an easy path forward for him.