18 Aug 2025: Poilievre/By-election in Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

[The Bread Guy]

STAFF NOTE: Since this is separate from the day-to-day discussion/critique of the government of the day, but not quite like Poilievre's leadership journey, starting a new thread here. If it leads to another leadership race, we can decide then where to put the content. Enjoy!

Prime Minister Carney announces by-election in Battle River—Crowfoot

Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced that a by-election will be held on August 18, 2025, in the electoral district of Battle River—Crowfoot, in Alberta.

www.pm.gc.ca

Alberta byelection called for Aug. 18, giving Poilievre path to House

OTTAWA - Pierre Poilievre has chosen one of the safest possible places to make his return to the House of Commons — but the rural Alberta riding he's hoping to

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

By-election in Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

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www.elections.ca

Electoral District Profile of Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

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www.elections.ca

Map of the Electoral District of Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

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www.elections.ca

Past Results – Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

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www.elections.ca

2025 Battle River—Crowfoot federal by-election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

... with a bit of backstory

Longest Ballot Committee hoping to run 200 candidates in Alberta byelection, disrupt Poilievre's return to Parliament - iPolitics

It will not be the first meeting between Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and the Longest Ballot Committee, as the advocacy group ran a similar campaign during the recent race in Carleton, where 91 candidates contested the seat, most of whom received fewer than 10 votes.

www.ipolitics.ca

No word yet whether Team Red will run a candidate - most of the time, in ridings where leaders are running, the other main party doesn't run anyone. The Wikipedia page lists PP and 4 others, with no Liberal or NDP candidate noted as of this post.

Good luck to all the candidates, and let the running of the snakes begin!!!!!!!!!

 

[SeaKingTacco]

In that riding, I doubt there is a single live or dead Liberal Party Member, let alone someone who wants to run as a candidate.

The more interesting bit will be to see if the Alberta Republic Party shows up and in what strength.

 

[The Bread Guy]

In that riding, I doubt there is a single live or dead Liberal Party Member, let alone someone who wants to run as a candidate.

Team Red DID run someone last time 'round, but with dismal results ....

The more interesting bit will be to see if the Alberta Republic Party shows up and in what strength.

For SURE those'll be things to watch. I'm also intrigued re: how PP's going to thread the separatism needle during statements on the campaign trail, given it'll come up no matter what. So far, as of this post, no listing of the separatist party on the Elections Canada list yet:

Registered Political Parties and Parties Eligible for Registration

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www.elections.ca

 

[brihard]

Team Red DID run someone last time 'round, but with dismal results ....
View attachment 94347

For SURE those'll be things to watch. I'm also intrigued re: how PP's going to thread the separatism needle during statements on the campaign trail, given it'll come up no matter what. So far, as of this post, no listing of the separatist party on the Elections Canada list yet:

Registered Political Parties and Parties Eligible for Registration

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www.elections.ca

The Alberta Republicans are a provincial party. Not sure if there’s any current going concern at the federal level from the Alberta separatist movement. It would be a missed opportunity for their movement not to capitalize on the visibility of this byelection, or to force Poilievre to visibly take a position on the Alberta question. They win either way.

 

[dapaterson]

I am curious to see how the LPC frames the byelection; do they (via proxies) claim it's a referendum on PP's leadership, and anything below the 83% of the last general election is a vote of non-confidence?

Lots of ways to twist this and make it even more of a distraction to the CPC than it already is.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Perhaps there may be one or two possibles among the 10,000 voters who cast ballots for "progressive" (LPC, NDP & Green) candidates in the general election. My supposition is that expense is the main limiting factor. Even if a candidate doesn't run a campaign (like Longest Ballot acolytes), there are costs just to get a name on the ballot; if there is even minimal interaction with voters (or a little shit disturbing aimed at the CPC candidate) it needs an open wallet. However, with the Alberta municipal elections upcoming in October (also first opportunity, though slim, to include referendum question), those looking to get a foot in the political door may be waiting for the traditional avenue to start out.

Team Red DID run someone last time 'round, but with dismal results ....
View attachment 94347

For that neck of the woods, that's not dismal for a Liberal.

 

[foresterab]

My biggest concern is that riding is a very right wing area. Blue rocks might be called liberal for getting their way.

So now you have official opposition leader dependent upon a far right riding to keep his seat...when it's not a direction for the rest of the country. To PP's credit he will have a much broader take on Canada than many of his riding constituents but it's going be a heck of a rodeo blow up if he starts going to center too far and expects to get re-elected.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Team Red DID run someone last time 'round, but with dismal results ....
View attachment 94347

For SURE those'll be things to watch. I'm also intrigued re: how PP's going to thread the separatism needle during statements on the campaign trail, given it'll come up no matter what. So far, as of this post, no listing of the separatist party on the Elections Canada list yet:

Registered Political Parties and Parties Eligible for Registration

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www.elections.ca

Those are good Liberal numbers. For Central Alberta.

 

[Blackadder1916]

In that riding, I doubt there is a single live or dead Liberal Party Member, let alone someone who wants to run as a candidate

Maybe they were waiting for a by-election to be announced.

Liberal Party of Canada announces Darcy Spady as Liberal candidate for Battle River—Crowfoot | Liberal Party of Canada

The Liberal Party of Canada has announced that Darcy Spady, a seasoned energy leader and community advocate, will be the Liberal candidate for Battle River—Crowfoot in the upcoming federal by-election.

liberal.ca

 

[Remius]

Maybe they were waiting for a by-election to be announced.

Liberal Party of Canada announces Darcy Spady as Liberal candidate for Battle River—Crowfoot | Liberal Party of Canada

The Liberal Party of Canada has announced that Darcy Spady, a seasoned energy leader and community advocate, will be the Liberal candidate for Battle River—Crowfoot in the upcoming federal by-election.

liberal.ca

My guess, is they know PP will win.

They however want to keep his win margin lower than the last election in that riding.

 

[brihard]

My guess, is they know PP will win.

They however want to keep his win margin lower than the last election in that riding.

This is probably the messaging and image they want to set up, yeah.

Though IMO if the CPC want do double down on Poilievre, the LPC would actually probably be wise to smile internally, sit back and stay out of the way. They could face far tougher fights than Poilievre vs Carney.

 

[McG]

I want to see Mad Max throw his name into that competition. He keeps claiming that he is what real conservative voters want, so what better way to show it than going head-to-head with the CPC leader.

 

[McG]

… looks like he is already campaigning for the seat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1939722161595318421

 

[brihard]

… looks like he is already campaigning for the seat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1939722161595318421

Oh is it Bernier Tries to Regain Relevance day again already?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Though IMO if the CPC want do double down on Poilievre, the LPC would actually probably be wise to smile internally, sit back and stay out of the way. They could face far tougher fights than Poilievre vs Carney.

Just heard some of the commentariat say the folks who want PP to stay in place the most are Team Red.

 

[brihard]

Just heard some of the commentariat say the folks who want PP to stay in place the most are Team Red.

It makes sense. They would know exactly what they’re up against and have already been succesful once.

 

[The Bread Guy]

It makes sense. They would know exactly what they’re up against and have already been succesful once.

And it sounds like they're counting on him not changing his stripes, hoping that gets them another win.

We'll see ...

 

[Kilted]

Maybe they were waiting for a by-election to be announced.

Liberal Party of Canada announces Darcy Spady as Liberal candidate for Battle River—Crowfoot | Liberal Party of Canada

The Liberal Party of Canada has announced that Darcy Spady, a seasoned energy leader and community advocate, will be the Liberal candidate for Battle River—Crowfoot in the upcoming federal by-election.

liberal.ca

I'm actually surprised that the Liberals are running a canadate, by tradition there are not supposed to contest this election.

 

[brihard]

I'm actually surprised that the Liberals are running a canadate, by tradition there are not supposed to contest this election.

Were they not supposed to contest the leader’s seat in the last one too?

 

[Blackadder1916]

I'm actually surprised that the Liberals are running a canadate, by tradition there are not supposed to contest this election.

What tradition is that? Giving a free ride to an opposition leader who was voted out of his home riding? And the freeloader continued to occupy Stornoway. Would he be considered a squatter?

As for "uncontested by-elections" for official opposition party leaders (or more particularly PM) who didn't have seats when they won party leadership, I can only recall two in my lifetime (there may be more). Robert Stanfield, after winning leadership of the PC Party, ran for a seat in the house in Colchester-Hants; the governing Liberals may not have officially run a candidate, but there was an "Independent Liberal" on the ballot. The other was Brian Mulroney, whose by-election was also a Nova Scotia, Central Nova. There was a full slate of the other parties on that ballot.

As for a specific Alberta example, Naheed Nenshi (provincial NDP leader) faced a full slate in the recent Edmonton-Strathcona by-election.

Edited to add.

Another by-election for a newly elected party leader was Stephen Harper who took a seat as Leader of the Opposition (Canadian Alliance) following byelection in 2002. The Liberals didn't run a candidate.