18 Aug 2025: Poilievre/By-election in Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

[The Bread Guy]

The LPC has inadvertently discovered a winning strategy with the 'just enough Canadian voters': change the head on the snake, make promises you see gaining traction with your opposition which are 180 from your position... then do what you want after the election. Rinse/repeat.

We’ll see if Team Blue can come up with a better approach for the next election, then.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Imagine a place where voters are so dissatisfied with the current government and it's policies after a decade of rule that the voters then re-elect the same government because it promised to implement the opposition's policies.

Ideas are not personalities. Nor is branding.

We live in a vain and judgemental society that can and will hear the same message differently depending on who the messenger is.

Has nothing to do with voter dissatisfaction or them being two-faced and everything to do with PP not being able to sway enough people on to his side; even if it was almost a venn diagram of what the PMMC Liberals are offering.

 

[FJAG]

Imagine a place where voters are so dissatisfied with the current government and it's policies after a decade of rule that the voters then re-elect the same government because it promised to implement the opposition's policies.

Image in place where long time Tories, like me, can no longer stomach their party of choice because of its adherence and prioritization of dog whistle policies catering to a small vocal minority. I voted but effectively spoiled my ballot in protest.

Take a look at the reality of this country. The CPC can thank its lucky stars that there are two left-leaning parties in opposition that split the left vote between them. But for the existence of the NDP, the CPC would stand little chance of ever forming a government these days. Like it or not, the LPC is the country's centre now regardless of how far left they lean from time to time.

Personally, I couldn't stomach the reign of the previous PM. I'm willing to give the new guy a chance for maybe a half a year to see if the right noises that he's making do in fact come to fruition. He has a lot of folks within his own party and the bureaucracy to bring into line. Time will tell if he brings those 180* policies into reality. Let's chat again in the new year. Everything before that is premature.

 

[Remius]

Image in place where long time Tories, like me, can no longer stomach their party of choice because of its adherence and prioritization of dog whistle policies catering to a small vocal minority. I voted but effectively spoiled my ballot in protest.

Take a look at the reality of this country. The CPC can thank its lucky stars that there are two left-leaning parties in opposition that split the left vote between them. But for the existence of the NDP, the CPC would stand little chance of ever forming a government these days. Like it or not, the LPC is the country's centre now regardless of how far left they lean from time to time.

Personally, I couldn't stomach the reign of the previous PM. I'm willing to give the new guy a chance for maybe a half a year to see if the right noises that he's making do in fact come to fruition. He has a lot of folks within his own party and the bureaucracy to bring into line. Time will tell if he brings those 180* policies into reality. Let's chat again in the new year. Everything before that is premature.

Well said.

 

[Halifax Tar]

We live in a vain and judgmental society that can and will hear the same message differently depending on who the messenger is.

Well said.

 

[ArmyRick]

For those wishing PP to stay on as CPC leader in the hopes that Carney can beat him again, I will caution you.

-Lets reflect on history when Harper lost to Martin in 2004. I knew many people wanted Harper out. I also heard from so many (mostly young Canadians or very left anti-war people, which was the left flavour of the day) who thought Harper was the worst thing that could happen to Canada ("Gasps! He was just like war monger Bush!"). Then we hit 2006 election and the Liberal arrogance cost Martin his PM and the party governance. In my views it was the arrogant "natural governing party of Canada attitude that ultimately cost them). The result? Canada did very well economically from 2006 until 2015, Hell I bought two properties in that time period.

-I am warming up to Uncle Mark, for those who can't tell. He is growing on me. His tossing the DST overboard was smart, it was not worth the cost we would suffer eventually. And it smacks of the old Trudeau stupidity. I also think I like where he is going, I feel it needs to be a bit clearer yet. However, Mark is still on probation. The nation gave him a chance and did so marginally with a minority government. He will not only needs to quickly put effective policies into play (and Canadians need to results quickly), I guarantee Carney will not be given a decade long grace period like Trudeau was. And I have said it before, I will say it again, Uncle Mark needs to take out the trash still, hopefully next cabinet shuffle (We say good bye to nearly all or all of the Trudeau acolytes)

-I think Jenni Byrne is gone now. I think? If Pierre and our party (I am a CPC member) can adapt, be flexible and move forward in this new era, we can succeed if Carney fails (its really Mark's opportunity to lose). I don't think Trump will be the factor like it was this past election, next time round. I think Canadians are seeing the bluster and BS bravado of "51st state" and thats all it is now, cheap talk. So how does the pivot swing go? Pierre at least needs to tackle even harder natural resource development, internal trade, housing, lowered immigration, skilled trades, new markets and lets try to repair what we can with AM-CAN relationship. He also needs to be on top of crime and drugs, this is an issue thats not going away.

On another note, I have seen many, many Liberals bitching about Pierre "bullying" Damien to step down and give up his seat. Stop. Damien volunteered and Pierre accepted. Unless you were the fly on the wall in the room during that conversation, zip it. Lets not forget, Mark and the Liberals did boot Chandra Arya out of his seat for Mark. BOOTED.

For that same crowd bitching that Pierre shouldn't be leading, well buy a CPC membership and you can have a say (unlike the LPC and the NDP). At the very least the caucus has the power to keep him or remove him. If your not a member or have no desire to be, stay out of it, not your business who we pick for our leader.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Image in place where long time Tories, like me, can no longer stomach their party of choice because of its adherence and prioritization of dog whistle policies catering to a small vocal minority. I voted but effectively spoiled my ballot in protest.

Take a look at the reality of this country. The CPC can thank its lucky stars that there are two left-leaning parties in opposition that split the left vote between them. But for the existence of the NDP, the CPC would stand little chance of ever forming a government these days. Like it or not, the LPC is the country's centre now regardless of how far left they lean from time to time.

Personally, I couldn't stomach the reign of the previous PM. I'm willing to give the new guy a chance for maybe a half a year to see if the right noises that he's making do in fact come to fruition. He has a lot of folks within his own party and the bureaucracy to bring into line. Time will tell if he brings those 180* policies into reality. Let's chat again in the new year. Everything before that is premature.

I'm not certain the NDP will be around much longer, federally.

 

[brihard]

For those wishing PP to stay on as CPC leader in the hopes that Carney can beat him again, I will caution you.

-Lets reflect on history when Harper lost to Martin in 2004. I knew many people wanted Harper out. I also heard from so many (mostly young Canadians or very left anti-war people, which was the left flavour of the day) who thought Harper was the worst thing that could happen to Canada ("Gasps! He was just like war monger Bush!"). Then we hit 2006 election and the Liberal arrogance cost Martin his PM and the party governance. In my views it was the arrogant "natural governing party of Canada attitude that ultimately cost them). The result? Canada did very well economically from 2006 until 2015, Hell I bought two properties in that time period.

-I am warming up to Uncle Mark, for those who can't tell. He is growing on me. His tossing the DST overboard was smart, it was not worth the cost we would suffer eventually. And it smacks of the old Trudeau stupidity. I also think I like where he is going, I feel it needs to be a bit clearer yet. However, Mark is still on probation. The nation gave him a chance and did so marginally with a minority government. He will not only needs to quickly put effective policies into play (and Canadians need to results quickly), I guarantee Carney will not be given a decade long grace period like Trudeau was. And I have said it before, I will say it again, Uncle Mark needs to take out the trash still, hopefully next cabinet shuffle (We say good bye to nearly all or all of the Trudeau acolytes)

-I think Jenni Byrne is gone now. I think? If Pierre and our party (I am a CPC member) can adapt, be flexible and move forward in this new era, we can succeed if Carney fails (its really Mark's opportunity to lose). I don't think Trump will be the factor like it was this past election, next time round. I think Canadians are seeing the bluster and BS bravado of "51st state" and thats all it is now, cheap talk. So how does the pivot swing go? Pierre at least needs to tackle even harder natural resource development, internal trade, housing, lowered immigration, skilled trades, new markets and lets try to repair what we can with AM-CAN relationship. He also needs to be on top of crime and drugs, this is an issue thats not going away.

On another note, I have seen many, many Liberals bitching about Pierre "bullying" Damien to step down and give up his seat. Stop. Damien volunteered and Pierre accepted. Unless you were the fly on the wall in the room during that conversation, zip it. Lets not forget, Mark and the Liberals did boot Chandra Arya out of his seat for Mark. BOOTED.

For that same crowd bitching that Pierre shouldn't be leading, well buy a CPC membership and you can have a say (unlike the LPC and the NDP). At the very least the caucus has the power to keep him or remove him. If your not a member or have no desire to be, stay out of it, not your business who we pick for our leader.

I’m not a CPC (or any party) member, nor do I plan to be, so I definitely have no say in their leadership.

Poilievre is, to me, a ‘no thank you’ to voting for the CPC. I personally hope they replace him so that the party can again be a palatable option for me as they’ve been before. I’m happy with the thought of two major parties with a fair bit of overlap on reasonable and realistic policies, and we get to choose an option based on who is most likely to best execute it and for the other stuff that falls outside the Venn overlap. But I want two options that take the economy, international relations, and national defence seriously, and who don’t get too bogged down in social bullshit out on either fringe.

Carney has so far exceeded my expectations. With Bill C-5 already passed, and bills C-2, C-4, and C-8 each putting forward concrete policy reform that I generally favour, so far I like what I see. They’re moving much faster than we normally see, and he has set his agenda clearly and unequivocally just weeks into government. Coupled with what we’re hearing from inside the central agencies about how Carney runs his shop, so far it’s a good sign. We appear to have a serious, businesslike approach to governing.

I’ll be watching to see that he does in fact maintain a good grip on the party and forcibly steers it in line with his vision. It’s not a 180 on their past policies, but it’s a solid 90 and I like that.

I was not able to stomach voting for either Poilievre or Trudeau. One of them is gone so I have an option again. I would like to have two options. I remain a persuadable voter, and it’s absolutely possible Carney will push too hard and flame out in the face of the reality of party politics.

 

[RangerRay]

I'm not certain the NDP will be around much longer, federally.

Since Carney is seemingly steering the ship towards the centre and Singh is out, I think the NDP has a chance to recover. I think there are a lot of lefties who are shocked to discover that they voted for a banker.

 

[ArmyRick]

I remain a persuadable voter,

I wish we all were (As in all Canadians). Right now CPC has my vote, but I am looking more and more at Carney's version of the LPC, or at least Carney himself. If Carney is effective and Pierre fizzles out, I may very well vote LPC next election.

Since Carney is seemingly steering the ship towards the centre and Singh is out, I think the NDP has a chance to recover.

I agree. The NDP has a chance to take the far left vote back from the almost center LPC now.

I'm not certain the NDP will be around much longer, federally.

With Singh gone, I think the NDP has the best chance ever to regrow. Hopefully they don't waste it on ideological based candidate.

 

[RangerRay]

With Singh gone, I think the NDP has the best chance ever to regrow. Hopefully they don't waste it on ideological based candidate.

Depends on the ideology. I think if they went back to old fashioned labour-centric, class warfare economic populism, there would be appetite for that.

But I think if they double down on “woke” identity and green politics, their recovery would not be as great.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

In a pre 2025 world I would agree wholeheartedly with you.

But the world changed underneath PPs feet and he proved he was unable to adjust to the new lay of the land.

Just my own humble opinion losing and election is one thing, but losing his seat is a bridge to far for me.

His riding was gerrymandered. He didn't stand a chance.

 

[brihard]

His riding was gerrymandered. He didn't stand a chance.

Hah, no it wasn’t - not in the least. I lived in the riding and paid close attention to this, and I know I’m not the only member here who can say this. It was subject to the normal redistribution process, input was solicited, and the realignment of the riding was approved in the proper and usual fashion.

Where it gets neat is that Elections Canada provided data for every redistributed riding, breaking down it down by individual polls (smaller geography within the riding which remains consistent when boundaries are redrawn) and comparing the actual 2021 results versus what the 2021 results would have been with the new boundaries. Had the election in 2021 be run under the new riding boundaries for Carleton, Poilievre would have actually had a couple percent MORE than he got. I.e., the redistribution of riding boundaries actually favoured the CPC slightly. Carleton riding became slightly more CPC leaning.

He lost the old fashioned way. He was an insufficiently appealing candidate and his opponent had one hell of a ground game and got more support. He lost despite the redrawing of riding boundaries, not because of it.

Edit to add: Just to show receipts, the Elections Canada transposed data can be seen and examined here: Interactive Data Visualizer – 2023 Representation Orders

 

[RangerRay]

A few years ago, my provincial riding was redrawn. Based on the results of the last election, a number of polls that voted PC were added and a number of polls that voted NDP were redistributed out of the riding. All the wags thought the PCs would become competitive. It didn’t happen. The PCs just run horrible campaigns in Winnipeg and only win when the NDP picks a far left ideologue as leader who tanks the party.

 

[MilEME09]

I was at the canada day celebrations yesterday in Drumheller, Pierre, ND his wife and team were out to meet the community. Strangely Maxime Bernier (if im spelling that correctly) was in town for the PPC, Pierre got cheers from the crowd during the parade, tons of people at a rotary club fundraiser coming to talk to him. I chatted with him briefly, nothing political on canada day which was nice, just casual chat about alberta and the community. He does seem to be making a effort to make the region his adoptive home. I did suggest to him to live in drumheller as the best city in the riding but maybe im bias cause my kids love dinosaurs

 

[dapaterson]

I did suggest to him to live in drumheller as the best city in the riding but maybe im bias cause my kids love dinosaurs

Parts of the CPC are very comfortable hanging around with dinosaurs.

 

[brihard]

Parts of the CPC are very comfortable hanging around with dinosaurs.

Ok but dinosaurs are super cool. I can’t hold that against anyone.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

My disdain for liberals knows no bounds. That's not a secret. I've tried to steer clear of politics since the election, realizing it accomplishes nothing to get wound up about something not in my control. What I find amusing though are the amount of people willing to give carney support and believe that he will do right by them.

Carney is a consummate liar. He lies to your face, he lies by omission, he says one thing in french and another in english. He's a high ranking WEF globalist and that is where his loyalty lies. It is their agenda he follows, not Canada’s. He was the one who told trudeau to bring in the Emergency Act and to freeze bank accounts. All indications are that he is still tied to Brookfield. He dropped the tariffs on the US in April, then campaigned on getting tough on trump with those same tariffs he quietly removed. He wouldn’t admit it during the election and it took outside sources to show what he did.

He was content to run trudeau from the shadows, but sockboy's incompetence, arrogance and legacy was finally enough that it was "Thanks for coming out, but you made utter balls of the opportunity. Now I need to step in and sort out the mess you made of the plan." Carney considers himself EU not Canadian.

His book Values, is his blueprint. You don’t go from being a net zero zealot to letting Smith build pipelines overnight. This leopard never changed his spots. No pipelines, no energy corridor. Nothing has changed nor will it. But dollars to donuts there will be tons of work for Brookfield.

He's made lots of promises, to spend billions of dollars we don’t have. And without a budget. "Just give me the money and I'll decide how to spend it."

C-5 is an authoritarian bamboozle. Giving the government carte blanche when it comes to whatever carney decides is in the 'National Interest'

I'm not happy with any of our parties and governments. I see our country changing for the worse. I see too much hunger, homelessness, unemployment, medical wait times, out of control immigration, outrageous prices on everything and foreign interference. I'm tired of terrorists taking over our streets to prosecute their homeland's problems. Including muslims that think it’s ok to block intersections to pray. I'm tired of the heshe transvestite, pronoun bullshit and the grooming of children by the education system.

The feds and ontario are spending millions (billions?) on the auto sector to save auto jobs from trade sanctions and then comes along with a mandatory EV buy in that nobody wants. So they pour billions into a sector that they are going to kill anyway. The new Nexstar EV battery plant in Windsor just laid off 200 skilled trades on Friday. More wasted tax dollars.

And he's still giving billions to foreign countries for virtue signalling programs while offering MAID to Canadians who can no longer cope.

I spent my life working for and defending this country and it's people. Now, I get to watch the liberals destroy it all before I die. I feel like I've wasted my life. This isn't the Canada I recognize anymore. Still my home and native land, but it wouldn’t take much convincing for me to find someplace else to go sit on a beach and forget about our joke of a civilized, equal society.

 

[Remius]

Hah, no it wasn’t - not in the least. I lived in the riding and paid close attention to this, and I know I’m not the only member here who can say this. It was subject to the normal redistribution process, input was solicited, and the realignment of the riding was approved in the proper and usual fashion.

Where it gets neat is that Elections Canada provided data for every redistributed riding, breaking down it down by individual polls (smaller geography within the riding which remains consistent when boundaries are redrawn) and comparing the actual 2021 results versus what the 2021 results would have been with the new boundaries. Had the election in 2021 be run under the new riding boundaries for Carleton, Poilievre would have actually had a couple percent MORE than he got. I.e., the redistribution of riding boundaries actually favoured the CPC slightly. Carleton riding became slightly more CPC leaning.

He lost the old fashioned way. He was an insufficiently appealing candidate and his opponent had one hell of a ground game and got more support. He lost despite the redrawing of riding boundaries, not because of it.

Edit to add: Just to show receipts, the Elections Canada transposed data can be seen and examined here: Interactive Data Visualizer – 2023 Representation Orders

Can confirm.

Also our chunk of the riding went to Ottawa South. McGuinty’s riding. In 2021 he won with 49% of the vote. This time he won with 65%. If all those voters were conservatives that moved to Ottawa South one would think that the LPC would not have won it so convincingly.

This was a riding that PP won handily for 20 years.

Support for the convoy.
Driving out PC types from the party.
how Erin O’Toole was treated (he lived just down the street and was well liked by his neighbours)
Basically ignoring the riding
Trudeau stepping down
Bruce Fanjoy being told he didn’t have a chance and said “Hold my Beer”

Lots of factors but gerrymandering wasn’t one of them.

 

[brihard]

My disdain for liberals knows no bounds. That's not a secret. I've tried to steer clear of politics since the election, realizing it accomplishes nothing to get wound up about something not in my control. What I find amusing though are the amount of people willing to give carney support and believe that he will do right by them.

Carney is a consummate liar. He lies to your face, he lies by omission, he says one thing in french and another in english. He's a high ranking WEF globalist and that is where his loyalty lies. It is their agenda he follows, not Canada’s. He was the one who told trudeau to bring in the Emergency Act and to freeze bank accounts. All indications are that he is still tied to Brookfield. He dropped the tariffs on the US in April, then campaigned on getting tough on trump with those same tariffs he quietly removed. He wouldn’t admit it during the election and it took outside sources to show what he did.

He was content to run trudeau from the shadows, but sockboy's incompetence, arrogance and legacy was finally enough that it was "Thanks for coming out, but you made utter balls of the opportunity. Now I need to step in and sort out the mess you made of the plan." Carney considers himself EU not Canadian.

His book Values, is his blueprint. You don’t go from being a net zero zealot to letting Smith build pipelines overnight. This leopard never changed his spots. No pipelines, no energy corridor. Nothing has changed nor will it. But dollars to donuts there will be tons of work for Brookfield.

He's made lots of promises, to spend billions of dollars we don’t have. And without a budget. "Just give me the money and I'll decide how to spend it."

C-5 is an authoritarian bamboozle. Giving the government carte blanche when it comes to whatever carney decides is in the 'National Interest'

I'm not happy with any of our parties and governments. I see our country changing for the worse. I see too much hunger, homelessness, unemployment, medical wait times, out of control immigration, outrageous prices on everything and foreign interference. I'm tired of terrorists taking over our streets to prosecute their homeland's problems. Including muslims that think it’s ok to block intersections to pray. I'm tired of the heshe transvestite, pronoun bullshit and the grooming of children by the education system.

The feds and ontario are spending millions (billions?) on the auto sector to save auto jobs from trade sanctions and then comes along with a mandatory EV buy in that nobody wants. So they pour billions into a sector that they are going to kill anyway. The new Nexstar EV battery plant in Windsor just laid off 200 skilled trades on Friday. More wasted tax dollars.

And he's still giving billions to foreign countries for virtue signalling programs while offering MAID to Canadians who can no longer cope.

I spent my life working for and defending this country and its people. Now, I get to watch the liberals destroy it all before I die. I feel like I've wasted my life. This isn't the Canada I recognize anymore. Still my home and native land, but it wouldn’t take much convincing for me to find someplace else to go sit on a beach and forget about our joke of a civilized, equal society.

Spare us, please. If the CPC had won the election and passed C-5 word for word, you’d be praising a federal government that finally took truculent First Nations and provincial governments to task in the interest of getting major economic infrastructure projects done. If Carney had been scooped by the CPC and run under their banner you’d probably be singing a different song in favour of, or at least grudgingly accepting of a Prime Minister who expected the bureaucrats to show up on time, sharply dressed, knowing their stuff.

What has happened is the LPC somehow, against the odds, managed to make a major pivot to someone with considerable technical competence and vast experience in both the private and public sector, and who has nearly immediately been able to start doing some of the right things. That does not bode well for the CPC as they currently are, and as you say your disdain for liberals knows no bounds- and so neither does your credulity. But suddenly this makes Carney the architect of the invocation of the Emergencies Act, or some grand vizier of WEF tyranny pulling the strings on a marionette government? This is internet fear mongering, not rational analysis of Canada’s political sphere.