18 Aug 2025: Poilievre/By-election in Battle River–Crowfoot (AB)

[Fishbone Jones]

Spare us, please. If the CPC had won the election and passed C-5 word for word, you’d be praising a federal government that finally took truculent First Nations and provincial governments to task in the interest of getting major economic infrastructure projects done. If Carney had been scooped by the CPC and run under their banner you’d probably be singing a different song in favour of, or at least grudgingly accepting of a Prime Minister who expected the bureaucrats to show up on time, sharply dressed, knowing their stuff.

What has happened is the LPC somehow, against the odds, managed to make a major pivot to someone with considerable technical competence and vast experience in both the private and public sector, and who has nearly immediately been able to start doing some of the right things. That does not bode well for the CPC as they currently are, and as you say your disdain for liberals knows no bounds- and so neither does your credulity. But suddenly this makes Carney the architect of the invocation of the Emergencies Act, or some grand vizier of WEF tyranny pulling the strings on a marionette government? This is internet fear mongering, not rational analysis of Canada’s political sphere.

Horseshit. Carneys involvment with the Emergency Act and freezing bank accounts is documented. There is little I can do if you want to stick your head in the sand and kiss carneys ass. You don’t believe his Values or WEF agenda, that’s fine. Doesn’t matter to me. I said I wasn't for any party, that I was disappointed in them all, but you go out of your way to hypothesize and speculate what my reaction would be if Poliviere won or carney was CPC. You know shit about what I think. Your thesis on what I feel and don't feel is pure fantasy. You don’t get to put words in my mouth or position me on your skewed spectrum. You are no more an expert than anyone else when it comes to analysing Canada's political sphere. You have your opinion, I have mine. That's all you've got, your opinion. And like mine, it counts for squat. C-5 lets the fed bullddoze any project they wish. Call it national interest and you sidestep all permits and assessments. If they wanted to put a windmill in your backyard, there is nothing, absolutely nothing, that you, your municipality, your province, your local FN or anyone else can say or do to stop them.

Carney’s people know their stuff? Give me a fucking break. The Safety Minister knows shit about guns and his portfolio, besides recusing himself when it comes to dealing with two terrorist organizations operating in Canada. The Immigration minister is another one that can't answer a single question on immigration. A Chief of Staff that is a known liar amongst his many other sins. Same old trudeau cabinet. Just a new boss.

But hey Great Oz, carry on like your OPINION is gospel and you are the last word on politics. IDK, IDC, & IDGAF.

 

[brihard]

Horseshit. Carneys involvment with the Emergency Act and freezing bank accounts is documented. There is little I can do if you want to stick your head in the sand and kiss carneys ass. You don’t believe his Values or WEF agenda, that’s fine. Doesn’t matter to me. I said I wasn't for any party, that I was disappointed in them all, but you go out of your way to hypothesize and speculate what my reaction would be if Poliviere won or carney was CPC. You know shit about what I think. Your thesis on what I feel and don't feel is pure fantasy. You don’t get to put words in my mouth or position me on your skewed spectrum. You are no more an expert than anyone else when it comes to analysing Canada's political sphere. You have your opinion, I have mine. That's all you've got, your opinion. And like mine, it counts for squat. C-5 lets the fed bullddoze any project they wish. Call it national interest and you sidestep all permits and assessments. If they wanted to put a windmill in your backyard, there is nothing, absolutely nothing, that you, your municipality, your province, your local FN or anyone else can say or do to stop them.

Carney’s people know their stuff? Give me a fucking break. The Safety Minister knows shit about guns and his portfolio, besides recusing himself when it comes to dealing with two terrorist organizations operating in Canada. The Immigration minister is another one that can't answer a single question on immigration. A Chief of Staff that is a known liar amongst his many other sins. Same old trudeau cabinet. Just a new boss.

But hey Great Oz, carry on like your OPINION is gospel and you are the last word on politics. IDK, IDC, & IDGAF.

But you do care and you do give a fuck, or you wouldn’t be here blasting me again after being called out.

And C-5 doesn’t actually do that. Read it again. It allows for a rapid determination of federal assessment and permitting. It doesn’t suddenly grant the federal government powers that are ultra vires its constitutional responsibilities. I recognize that you believe it steamrolls overlapping provincial jurisdiction, but it does not. Carney has been clear that it speeds the path towards federal permitting of a project that has necessary interjurisdictional consensus. And the other half of the bill explicitly removes a bunch of federal trade barriers. That can hardly be claimed to be some federal seizing of tyrannical power; they’re literally removing some rules wholesale.

You named two ministers and a chief of staff, then went on with ‘same old Cabinet’. All three are new to their roles. Only one minister was in cabinet before in a different portfolio.
So no, by your own examples, not the ‘same old cabinet’. Some ministers stayed, and some of them in the same roles.
The majority of positions are not occupied by Trudeau-era incumbents.

By all means have and express your own opinion, but as always, you have to share a common set of facts with the rest of us.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

But you do care and you do give a fuck, or you wouldn’t be here blasting me again after being called out.

And C-5 doesn’t actually do that. Read it again. It allows for a rapid determination of federal assessment and permitting. It doesn’t suddenly grant the federal government powers that are ultra vires its constitutional responsibilities. I recognize that you believe it steamrolls overlapping provincial jurisdiction, but it does not. Carney has been clear that it speeds the path towards federal permitting of a project that has necessary interjurisdictional consensus. And the other half of the bill explicitly removes a bunch of federal trade barriers. That can hardly be claimed to be some federal seizing of tyrannical power; they’re literally removing some rules wholesale.

You named two ministers and a chief of staff, then went on with ‘same old Cabinet’. All three are new to their roles. Only one minister was in cabinet before in a different portfolio.
So no, by your own examples, not the ‘same old cabinet’. Some ministers stayed, and some of them in the same roles.
The majority of positions are not occupied by Trudeau-era incumbents.

By all means have and express your own opinion, but as always, you have to share a common set of facts with the rest

That is your interpretation of C-5, not mine. We'll have to wait and see how he uses it.
Whether they are old or new, he has people that make your statement false. They don’t know their jobs. They actually know nothing at all about them.
Or the Housing Minister that thinks home prices are just fine and sees no reason to lower them. Of course he has a real estate empire worth millions and would lose his shirt if prices fell.

Meh, this is what I was getting at originally. I'm so sick and tired of all this shit that I see little reason to participate as a citizen in what I used to consider our great Dominion. All I want now is to sit on my porch, keep people off my lawn and keep my powder dry.

 

[brihard]

That is your interpretation of C-5, not mine. We'll have to wait and see how he uses it.

I know this is almost a running joke at this point, but did you actually go to LegisInfo and read it at all? Because what it actually does is right there visible for anyone in the public to see.

 

[Maxman1]

Ideas are not personalities. Nor is branding.

Nor the trim level on a GMC.

 

[Good2Golf]

For those wishing PP to stay on as CPC leader in the hopes that Carney can beat him again, I will caution you.

-Lets reflect on history when Harper lost to Martin in 2004. I knew many people wanted Harper out.

In fairness to Harper, it’s not like he blew a 2x lead in the polls in 2004.

I also heard from so many (mostly young Canadians or very left anti-war people, which was the left flavour of the day) who thought Harper was the worst thing that could happen to Canada ("Gasps! He was just like war monger Bush!"). Then we hit 2006 election and the Liberal arrogance cost Martin his PM and the party governance.

Many people will make the case that it was Jean Chrétien’s deep-seated hatred of Paul Martin Sr. that he took out against Paul Martin Jr. once he was well-retired and on the honorarium-fueled talk circuit, that was Martin’s demise.

In my views it was the arrogant "natural governing party of Canada attitude that ultimately cost them). The result? Canada did very well economically from 2006 until 2015, Hell I bought two properties in that time period.

That didn’t start just in 2006. I bought a property in the late-90s that did quite well with Chretien and Martin’s responsible fiscal control and reduction of gross debt.

-I am warming up to Uncle Mark, for those who can't tell. He is growing on me. His tossing the DST overboard was smart, it was not worth the cost we would suffer eventually. And it smacks of the old Trudeau stupidity. I also think I like where he is going, I feel it needs to be a bit clearer yet. However, Mark is still on probation. The nation gave him a chance and did so marginally with a minority government. He will not only needs to quickly put effective policies into play (and Canadians need to results quickly), I guarantee Carney will not be given a decade long grace period like Trudeau was. And I have said it before, I will say it again, Uncle Mark needs to take out the trash still, hopefully next cabinet shuffle (We say good bye to nearly all or all of the Trudeau acolytes)

-I think Jenni Byrne is gone now. I think? If Pierre and our party (I am a CPC member) can adapt, be flexible and move forward in this new era, we can succeed if Carney fails (its really Mark's opportunity to lose). I don't think Trump will be the factor like it was this past election, next time round. I think Canadians are seeing the bluster and BS bravado of "51st state" and thats all it is now, cheap talk. So how does the pivot swing go? Pierre at least needs to tackle even harder natural resource development, internal trade, housing, lowered immigration, skilled trades, new markets and lets try to repair what we can with AM-CAN relationship. He also needs to be on top of crime and drugs, this is an issue thats not going away.

Agree.

On another note, I have seen many, many Liberals bitching about Pierre "bullying" Damien to step down and give up his seat. Stop. Damien volunteered and Pierre accepted. Unless you were the fly on the wall in the room during that conversation, zip it.

They scanned the room for flies so we wouldn’t find out what Damien will receive in lieu of the parliamentary pension he gave up by stepping down.

Lets not forget, Mark and the Liberals did boot Chandra Arya out of his seat for Mark. BOOTED.

That was rather definitive action in the LPC’s part, but Arya was doing a significant amount of ‘off [party] message’ work, including freelancing to India to chat with PM Modi about…something…

For that same crowd bitching that Pierre shouldn't be leading, we’ll buy a CPC membership and you can have a say (unlike the LPC and the NDP). At the very least the caucus has the power to keep him or remove him. If you’re not a member or have no desire to be, stay out of it, not your business who we pick for our leader.

I would have bought a PC membership, but I have no interest in buying what I personally feel would be a rebadged Reform-Alliance membership.

I think there are a lot of lefties who are shocked to discover that they voted for a banker.

They shouldn’t be. At. All.

They repeatedly voted for a Rolex and Brooks Brothers suit-wearing, BMW-driving lawyer. Voting for a rather pedestrian banker shouldn’t stretch their brain housing group.

 

[ArmyRick]

Many good observations

Many people will make the case that it was Jean Chrétien’s deep-seated hatred of Paul Martin Sr. that he took out against Paul Martin Jr. once he was well-retired and on the honorarium-fueled talk circuit, that was Martin’s demise.

I would say that there were many reasons for the fall of Martin government and I fully agree Chretien had a hand in it (Warren Kinsella, journalist and former Chretien campaign manager, has admitted the Martin-Chretien rift in the old LPC).

We could probably stack many other reasons on why Martin/LPC was heaved hoed after a decade plus. Things like people are plain old tired of Liberals to the Ad scam, the flip floppery of Old Jean himself. There was certainly many reasons and factors the 'natural governing party" got the '06 boot.

To put in context, history can and will repeat. PMMC is on a mission and has a vision. He walks a fine line, and he could still pay for the sins of Justin and his crew. The ditching of the DST was not only a good political tactical move, it was symbolic (whether he intended it or not) and reflects a component to what could be a winning strategy. This first couple of months, PMMC should ditch stupid Trudeau policies and to save his own skin, blame what he can on that crew. Use the "new government concept" to his advantage. Its very important he puts distance quickly between Carney Liberals and Trudeau NDP Liberals. So far a commitment to 5% GDP defence spending is AWESOME (one way or another, even if it only involves brand new barracks, mess halls and runways, its QoL improvement at the very least), bill C5 (with CPC trimmings) can be the antidote to Bill C69 and tossing the DST? Hell yes. I have also brought it up time and time again, ditch the stupid Cabinet clowns, they can and will sink Carney. Just for unity sakes, Carney should RUSH the legislation to get at least one new pipeline pushed through to cement his reputation.

Now, a few wildcards, what factor does the old school Liberal voter play who is NOT going to approve new defence spending, doesn't want new criminal laws, doesn't want caps on immigration, etc. Could they decide the NDP is the place to be? Lets see what direction the NDP goes.

The media is another wildcard. The CBC gets majority of funding so Carney will probably be able to rely on them. CTV, Global, etc if the taps get turned off for them, will see a stronger opinion shift? Media can sway a lot of voters.

 

[OldSolduer]

Hell yes. I have also brought it up time and time again, ditch the stupid Cabinet clowns, they can and will sink Carney. Just for unity sakes, Carney should RUSH the legislation to get at least one new pipeline pushed through to cement his reputation.

Now, a few wildcards, what factor does the old school Liberal voter play who is NOT going to approve new defence spending, doesn't want new criminal laws, doesn't want caps on immigration, etc. Could they decide the NDP is the place to be? Lets see what direction the NDP goes.

The media is another wildcard. The CBC gets majority of funding so Carney will probably be able to rely on them. CTV, Global, etc if the taps get turned off for them, will see a stronger opinion shift? Media can sway a lot of voters.

Eco Boi should be the first to go.

 

[ArmyRick]

Eco Boi should be the first to go.

#1 on the ditch list is Steven Guilbeault

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

That is your interpretation of C-5, not mine. We'll have to wait and see how he uses it.
Whether they are old or new, he has people that make your statement false. They don’t know their jobs. They actually know nothing at all about them.
Or the Housing Minister that thinks home prices are just fine and sees no reason to lower them. Of course he has a real estate empire worth millions and would lose his shirt if prices fell.

Meh, this is what I was getting at originally. I'm so sick and tired of all this shit that I see little reason to participate as a citizen in what I used to consider our great Dominion. All I want now is to sit on my porch, keep people off my lawn and keep my powder dry.

View attachment 94392

Curious if you support the Ford Govt's Ontario's Bill 17, the Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act, 2025.

 

[McG]

Meet the military trailblazer who's gunning for Pierre Poilievre in rural Alberta byelection

Bonnie Critchley is mounting a challenge to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in one of the safest Conservative ridings in Canada

nationalpost.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Curious if you support the Ford Govt's Ontario's Bill 17, the Protect Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act, 2025.

No idea. Haven’t read it.

 

[HavokFour]

Might not be the clean sweep the CPC are hoping for.

Battle River-Crowfoot candidates predict a tougher byelection for Pierre Poilievre than landslide April election win

Battle River-Crowfoot candidates say many voters are unhappy about having to go back to the polls for an August byelection.

calgaryherald.com

 

[brihard]

Might not be the clean sweep the CPC are hoping for.

Battle River-Crowfoot candidates predict a tougher byelection for Pierre Poilievre than landslide April election win

Battle River-Crowfoot candidates say many voters are unhappy about having to go back to the polls for an August byelection.

calgaryherald.com

There may be more support split among other candidates than there was in the election, but he should still come up the middle rather handily. That riding won’t vote Liberal or NDP in any great numbers, and none of the independent or fringe party candidates will have any commanding advantage.

He may win by a margin sufficiently smaller than Kurek did to cause some unflattering commentary and feed a bit of election messaging next time round, but I think that’ll mostly fade. We have at least a year (probably a lot more) til the next election and I don’t think many people will really hang on to the byelection breakdown.

 

[McG]

The riding is not CPC country; It's Wildrose country. That definitely could hurt his results. There will be more than a few voters who believe the Conservatives are not conservative enough.

 

[brihard]

The riding is not CPC country; It's Wildrose country. That definitely could hurt his results. There will be more than a few voters who believe the Conservatives are not conservative enough.

Yeah but he only needs to do well enough to get his Question Period soapbox back. He’s running for this seat but is clearly still campaigning to survive the party leadership review and run for PM in a few years. While constituents of the riding may not be super enamoured with their role in all this, that’s the role they’ve been given to play by the only party that’s presently electorally viable there.

Some bizarro upset is not impossible, of course. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[Remius]

Poilievre adviser Jenni Byrne staying on, Conservatives confirm amid speculation of ouster

Byrne will scale back her connection to the Conservatives’ work in opposition, sources say

www.theglobeandmail.com

Posted in another thread.

I wonder if she advised him not to get rid of her lol.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

In fairness to Harper, it’s not like he blew a 2x lead in the polls in 2004.



Many people will make the case that it was Jean Chrétien’s deep-seated hatred of Paul Martin Sr. that he took out against Paul Martin Jr. once he was well-retired and on the honorarium-fueled talk circuit, that was Martin’s demise.


That didn’t start just in 2006. I bought a property in the late-90s that did quite well with Chretien and Martin’s responsible fiscal control and reduction of gross debt.




Agree.



They scanned the room for flies so we wouldn’t find out what Damien will receive in lieu of the parliamentary pension he gave up by stepping down.


That was rather definitive action in the LPC’s part, but Arya was doing a significant amount of ‘off [party] message’ work, including freelancing to India to chat with PM Modi about…something…


I would have bought a PC membership, but I have no interest in buying what I personally feel would be a rebadged Reform-Alliance membership.



They shouldn’t be. At. All.

They repeatedly voted for a Rolex and Brooks Brothers suit-wearing, BMW-driving lawyer. Voting for a rather pedestrian banker shouldn’t stretch their brain housing group.

Of the 4PM I served under in the PS

Chreatien - Competent but corrupt

Martin - Competent

Harper - Competent

JT - ARRRRRRGH what a douche bag, lair, totally incompetent, unserious, not willing to listening to anyone outside of his circle.

 

[armrdsoul77]

JT - ARRRRRRGH what a douche bag, lair, totally incompetent, unserious, not willing to listening to anyone outside of his circle.

Was it an evil lair?

 

[ArmyRick]

Poilievre adviser Jenni Byrne staying on, Conservatives confirm amid speculation of ouster

Byrne will scale back her connection to the Conservatives’ work in opposition, sources say

www.theglobeandmail.com

Posted in another thread.

I wonder if she advised him not to get rid of her lol.

As I had said earlier, my unnamed source (usually pretty reliable) said there was supposed to be a no media involved quiet parting of ways. Now it seems as though something different is happening.

If he really does keep her on, I think he will find surviving the leadership review in January much, much more challenging.