2018 Ontario General Election

[Crispy Bacon]

Looks like we need to start the 2018 Ontario General Election thread.

Here's my short list for potential Ontario PC Party leader replacements (in no particular order... yet):

- Lisa MacLeod - she's a young (under 40), married woman in a safe riding and is and has been an important Hudak Opposition critic.
- Michael Chong - a principled small 'c' conservative, former federal cabinet minister, currently has a bill before the House that would see political party leaders' powers constrained
- John Baird - cut his teeth in provincial politics as a Harris-era cabinet minister
- Tony Clement - cut his teeth in provincial politics as a Harris-era cabinet minister
- Vic Fedeli - Hudak's finance critic, but not really well known
- Randy Hillier - he's run for leadership before as a right(er)-wing conservative representing rural communities and traditional conservative values

Baird and Clement were recruited by Harper to give Harper's cabinet strong Ontario ministers.  If both or either resign from federal cabinet to run provincially the feds will be losing some crucial Ontario ministers. Right now, it would seem to me that the conservatives will want to get away from the Harris comparisons, so they will stay away from electing anyone associated with that false baggage.  As well, they will need to break through in Toronto if they want to have a chance of forming the next government, so a leadership candidate might represent a GTA riding (e.g. Christine Elliott) or they might come from a Toronto-based power company (a law firm, Bay Street, etc).

Others: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/ontario-election-2014-potential-contenders-to-replace-tim-hudak-as-pc-leader-1.2674283

 

[George Wallace]

Lisa MacLeod's name has been bandied about a fair amount lately.







......and Topic now split to form 2018 Ontario General Election.......In anticipation......Subject to change, of course.

 

[Old Sweat]

In the meantime, here are some points to ponder:

a. the various public sector unions, except OPSEU, will expect payback at the bargaining table. Ms Wynne has promised to follow the collective bargaining process when negotiating their next contracts and they rightly will expect just that.

b. the financial position of the province is such that a freeze in compensation and in numbers, perhaps even a reduction in numbers, will be necessary to satisfy the bond rating agencies and the lenders who have been financing the deficit spending over the past several years. Or the government could just hike our taxes to reward the unions for their support.

c. the public at large are not apt to jump up and down in glee if they experience tax increases to finance pay raises and growth for the public sector.

d. the unions will react strongly at what they will see as a betrayal if they do not get c. above, especially as it may well entail legislated action rather than collective bargaining. How many million did they spend in the expectation of a payoff and what will they do to a double crossing administration?

It may be an interesting few years.

 

[ModlrMike]

Two things are certain:

a. you can expect another barage of 3rd party adertising in the next go round; and

b. this will be the norm until the Conservatives form the govt and change things like they did federally.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

In the meantime, here are some points to ponder:

a. the various public sector unions, except OPSEU, will expect payback at the bargaining table. Ms Wynne has promised to follow the collective bargaining process when negotiating their next contracts and they rightly will expect just that.

b. the financial position of the province is such that a freeze in compensation and in numbers, perhaps even a reduction in numbers, will be necessary to satisfy the bond rating agencies and the lenders who have been financing the deficit spending over the past several years. Or the government could just hike our taxes to reward the unions for their support.

c. the public at large are not apt to jump up and down in glee if they experience tax increases to finance pay raises and growth for the public sector.

d. the unions will react strongly at what they will see as a betrayal if they do not get c. above, especially as it may well entail legislated action rather than collective bargaining. How many million did they spend in the expectation of a payoff and what will they do to a double crossing administration?

It may be an interesting few years.

Sorry OS, OPSEU also expects our fair do. We've been under a wage freeze since our last contact with McSquinty.

I well expect to be on strike come December and we'll be locked out until the liebrals save enough on said strike that they'll be able to give us that raise without cost to the province.

 

[Old Sweat]

Sorry OS, OPSEU also expects our fair do. We've been under a wage freeze since our last contact with McSquinty.

I well expect to be on strike come December and we'll be locked out until the liebrals save enough on said strike that they'll be able to give us that raise without cost to the province.

My point, RG, is that unlike the other unions, OPSEU did not campaign against the PCs and in fact, the union leader warned against accepting the message the Liberals were pushing. OPSEU, therefore, is not operating under any illusions that may be dashed that the negotiations are reward time.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

My point, RG, is that unlike the other unions, OPSEU did not campaign against the PCs and in fact, the union leader warned against accepting the message the Liberals were pushing. OPSEU, therefore, is not operating under any illusions that may be dashed that the negotiations are reward time.

Seen

 

[Edward Campbell]

Looks like we need to start the 2018 Ontario General Election thread.

Here's my short list for potential Ontario PC Party leader replacements (in no particular order... yet):

- Lisa MacLeod - she's a young (under 40), married woman in a safe riding and is and has been an important Hudak Opposition critic.
- Michael Chong - a principled small 'c' conservative, former federal cabinet minister, currently has a bill before the House that would see political party leaders' powers constrained
- John Baird - cut his teeth in provincial politics as a Harris-era cabinet minister
- Tony Clement - cut his teeth in provincial politics as a Harris-era cabinet minister
- Vic Fedeli - Hudak's finance critic, but not really well known
- Randy Hillier - he's run for leadership before as a right(er)-wing conservative representing rural communities and traditional conservative values

Baird and Clement were recruited by Harper to give Harper's cabinet strong Ontario ministers.  If both or either resign from federal cabinet to run provincially the feds will be losing some crucial Ontario ministers. Right now, it would seem to me that the conservatives will want to get away from the Harris comparisons, so they will stay away from electing anyone associated with that false baggage.  As well, they will need to break through in Toronto if they want to have a chance of forming the next government, so a leadership candidate might represent a GTA riding (e.g. Christine Elliott) or they might come from a Toronto-based power company (a law firm, Bay Street, etc).

Others: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/ontario-election-2014-potential-contenders-to-replace-tim-hudak-as-pc-leader-1.2674283

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is more speculation about the PCPO leadership:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/early-ontario-pc-leadership-talk-centres-on-deputy-leader-christine-elliott/article19214420/#dashboard/follows/

After Hudak, who is likely to take over Ontario PCs?

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Adam Radwanski and Adrian Morrow
The Globe and Mail

Last updated Wednesday, Jun. 18 2014

Less than a week after their party suffered a shockingly poor result in Ontario’s election, teams of Progressive Conservatives are already starting to line up behind contenders to replace Tim Hudak.

At the centre of much of the early leadership talk is deputy leader Christine Elliott, who ran against Mr. Hudak for the leadership in 2009.

A source close to Ms. Elliott, who could not be reached for comment on Tuesday, told The Globe and Mail that she made up her mind last weekend to run and is “working hard toward an early announcement.”

Other party insiders cast doubt on whether Ms. Elliott – whose husband, former federal finance minister Jim Flaherty, died in April – has firmly decided. But they confirmed that her would-be backers have been reaching out to fellow Tories to offer positions on her campaign.

Meanwhile, several other PC caucus members and at least one federal MP are testing the waters.

Among the likely candidates is Nepean-Carleton MPP Lisa MacLeod, who sources say has been canvassing fellow Tories to gauge support. Although best known as the opposition’s lead attacker in recent years, Ms. MacLeod would likely position herself as a relative moderate offering a shift back to the centre-right after the party’s lack of success with a hard right turn in the recent campaign.

Somewhat less certain is the interest level of Vic Fedeli, the former North Bay mayor who served as the Tories’ finance critic before the election. While lacking the networks within his party that Ms. Elliott and Ms. MacLeod enjoy, Mr. Fedeli would nevertheless be taken seriously as a contender.

Other members of the PC caucus known to have been putting out feelers include one of its youngest members, Monte McNaughton. The 37-year-old has been seen as a rising star within his party, although many Tories expressed the view that he would benefit from more polish before mounting a leadership bid.

While Mr. McNaughton could also suffer for the perception that he is too similar to Mr. Hudak, because of an inclination toward both strident fiscal conservatism and rigid message discipline, party president Richard Ciano – long rumoured to have leadership ambitions – could struggle to find supporters because of accusations that he wasn’t loyal to the outgoing leader.

Another potential candidate who also faced intermittent complaints about disloyalty, long-time MPP Frank Klees, did not seek re-election this year and is said to not currently have interest in replacing Mr. Hudak. Having placed second (ahead of Ms. Elliott) in the last leadership contest largely on the strength of strong social-conservative support, however, Mr. Klees could mount a competitive bid, and erstwhile colleagues expressed the view that he might be persuaded to do so.

Among federal Conservatives, St. Catharines MP Rick Dykstra is the only one to have openly expressed interest in Mr. Hudak’s job, acknowledging to local media that he is considering a bid. Party sources say that Mr. Dykstra, who serves in Ottawa as a parliamentary secretary, has been actively laying the groundwork.

More senior members of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s caucus are being approached by Tories hoping they might make the switch to Queen’s Park. Neither Transportation Minister Lisa Raitt nor Treasury Board President Tony Clement unequivocally ruled out that possibility when contacted by The Globe and Mail on Tuesday, but both said they remain committed to their current posts. And while Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird could not be reached for comment, even Ontario PCs expressed skepticism he would give up one of Ottawa’s best jobs to spend four years in provincial opposition.

Among the disincentives for him and others is that whoever wins Mr. Hudak’s job will be inheriting a party that has spent more than a decade out of office and requires a major rebuild before Ontario’s 2018 election. In their fourth straight election defeat, the Tories were reduced from 37 to 28 seats, saw a significant decline in their share of the popular vote, and are believed to have been left deeply in debt.

I supported Christine Elliott in 2009 and, if she runs again, I will support her again.

In my opinion had Elliott won in 2009 she would be premier today because she would have won the 2011 election.

    (The PCPO has been captured by a 'wannabe American' wing that misunderstood Mike Harris and the common sense revolution. The people of Ontario didn't like the harsh medicine but, in 1995, they understood that
      they had to swallow it. Mike Harris prepared the ground well, aided (unintentionally) by Bob Rae and Floyd Laughren. By 2002 Ontario and Mike Harris were tired on the revolution but, byt then, the 'wannabe American' wing
      had taken over.)

In the recent election it was not, in my opinion, the substance of Tim Hudak's policies that bothered Ontarians, it was a real, visceral fear of how Mr Hudak would implement those polices that mattered. Ontarians understand that Kathleen Wynne is going to break most of her promises and that she will tax us half to death but they believe that she will moderate the extreme 'tax and spend' wing of her party while they believed that Mr Hudak could not do the same to the 'slash and burn' wing of the PCPO ~ in short Mr Hudak failed the leadership test.

The PCPO needs a moderate, centrist leader, someone who can rebuild the Party and lead it to victory. My money is still on Christine Elliott.

 

[The Bread Guy]

In the recent election it was not, in my opinion, the substance of Tim Hudak's policies that bothered Ontarians, it was a real, visceral fear of how Mr Hudak would implement those polices that mattered. Ontarians understand that Kathleen Wynne is going to break most of her promises and that she will tax us half to death but they believe that she will moderate the extreme 'tax and spend' wing of her party while they believed that Mr Hudak could not do the same to the 'slash and burn' wing of the PCPO ~ in short Mr Hudak failed the leadership test.

Agreed - in the words of someone smarter than me about these things, as a collective, Ontarians were more afraid of austerity Hudak-style than they were angry over money we'll never see again Wynne-style.

 

[The_Falcon]

I'll put this here since the 2014 election is done.  This won't surprise anyone here or OPSEU for that matter, and  I guess you can't really say she is breaking a promise, since she never explicitly promised anything.  She just refused to provide details since it wasn't convenient at the time.  Now that the she won, with massive union support.....well oops sorry folks,

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/canada/toronto/story/1.2679331

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne appeared on CBC Radio's Metro Morning on Wednesday, less than a week after leading her Liberals to an unexpected majority win.

Host Matt Galloway asked the premier about everything from transit funding, to her plans to pare back the province's large deficit, and why her support didn't extend into most rural Ontario ridings.

Here's a sample of her comments, you can listen to the entire interview here:

On watching the election night results with her family:

"It was thrilling. Everyone was very excited. My Dad probably most of all. He was just thrilled."

On why voters didn't embrace Tim Hudak's call for extreme austerity measures and deep cuts to the civil service:

"People who believe that the province is capable of so much and people who are interested in building the province up were very dismayed by a vision that says we're going to start by firing 100,000 people. It did not resonate with people."

On the tone of the campaign that turned somewhat nasty in the last week despite promises to keep things civil.

"I'm not going pretend that we didn't have to make it clear what the choices were."

Wynne has said she will govern from the "activist centre." What does this mean?

"Government has to be a force for good in people's lives. There's a place for direct involvement of government … to help businesses expand to help create the jobs that we know are possible."

Liberal seats are again largely concentrated in Ontario's large cities, with few red ridings in rural areas of the province. Is this a problem? Are there two Ontarios?

"We have representation all over the province. No matter where your seats are, it's my responsibility as premier to govern the whole province."

Toronto mayoral candidate Olivia Chow says she would scrap the Scarborough subway extension and return to a light rail plan along that route. Where does Wynne stand on this?

"I'm not going to weigh in on the mayoralty race. I do hope we have a mayor in the city of Toronto and all the jurisdictions that are interested and willing to work with the province and not be in a conflict with them on transit."

Wynne has vowed to eliminate Ontario's $12.5 billion deficit by 2017-18. Is she willing to do this even if it means playing tough in contract negotiations with public sector unions?

"I respect the collective bargaining process and I'm adamant that we will have fair collective bargaining, but there is no new money and everyone knows what the fiscal situation is. We've made tough choices, we will continue to do that."

Does the majority mandate give you some comfort, given that you've essentially been running since winning the party leadership?

"Every day it feels like I have to earn this role. I have to live up to the expectations of the people of this province. Although it's a relief and it's great to be in this position, we know there's a lot of work ahead of us. We're very impatient to get moving."

Finally, you're now the first openly gay leader in a Commonwealth country. How happy are you this wasn't an issue during the campaign?

"It's a wonderful thing about this province, it's a wonderful thing about this country. This is a beautiful and inclusive place that will live in. Jane [Wynne's partner Jane Rounthwaite] was with me on the campaign bus and we were welcomed in communities in every part of this province and I think it speaks to who we are as Ontarians."

 

[a_majoor]

This ad will be so true in 2018 (indeed it was already true in the last election). Hopefully someone will have the wit to do the Ontario version for 2018...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCLmRUFGzGM

 

[The Bread Guy]

The PCPO needs a moderate, centrist leader, someone who can rebuild the Party and lead it to victory. My money is still on Christine Elliott.

Cha-CHING ....

Whitby-Oshawa MPP Christine Elliott is set to launch her bid for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative party Wednesday.

Elliott, the widow of former federal finance minister Jim Flaherty, will make the announcement outside a University of Toronto building in the morning.

Tory insiders say she has at least seven caucus members supporting her for the leadership.

Soft-spoken and a moderate, Elliott has been seen as someone who’s not comfortable with some of the extreme right-wing positions the party took under leader Tim Hudak.

Hudak has said he will step down July 2 ....

 

[The Bread Guy]

Bumping this higher up now that we're 365 days away from the scheduled Ontario General Election.

Just to start things rolling, here's links to the major party info-machines ...

• Team Red
• Team Blue
• Team Orange
• Team Green

op:

 

[The Bread Guy]

Interesting compare-contrast piece by a former Harper comms dude, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42) ...

Caroline Mulroney, the anti-Trudeau, enters the political fray
Andrew MacDougall on Caroline Mulroney’s decision to follow in her father Brian’s footsteps—and what she can learn from the current PM
Andrew MacDougall, macleans.ca, August 2, 2017

Caroline Mulroney’s resume is so blinding, the biography section of her freshly launched campaign website can afford to ignore the very thing Ontarians are most likely to know about her: that she’s Ben Mulroney’s sister.

All kidding aside, Mulroney’s campaign site—launched in support of her just-announced run for the Ontario PC nomination in York-Simcoe—also forgoes all mention of father Brian, Canada’s 18th prime minister (and mother Mila, while we’re at it).

It’s certainly not that Mulroney is thin on material. She’s a Harvard graduate who then studied law at NYU before working in finance for 20 years while starting a charity on the side—all the while helping to raise four children. It’s not supply teaching and snowboard instructing, but it’ll do.

Mulroney’s choice to stand on her own two feet is therefore admirable, even if it is an abnegation of reality. Whether she likes it or not, every single piece of news copy about her candidacy will be festooned with “Muldoon” references.

Her father’s absence is undoubtedly part of a strategy to underplay her ambition; this isn’t the second coming, even if some Ontarians might be praying to be rid of Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals.

York-Simcoe is a safe Tory seat and the Ontario PC Party has a new, young leader in Patrick Brown. Mulroney is meant to be part of an impressive crop of candidates, not the silver bullet to ending 14 years of Liberal rule.

But there’s underplaying it, and then there’s dosing your candidacy in NyQuil, which is where Mulroney is headed. If you didn’t know Mulroney’s pedigree you’d think her identikit campaign launch video was that of a no-hope candidate in an unwinnable riding.

“I’ll stand up for you and work for a better future for your family,” Mulroney says in her video. “I love this province and I believe that Ontario can once again be the engine of the Canadian economy,” she adds on her website. Was the degree from Harvard a PhD in boilerplate?

This is where a little behind-the-scenes (if not above board) counsel from the old man might have helped. You might not have liked Brian Mulroney, but he could command a stage. She needn’t warble “When Irish Eyes Are Smiling”, but a twinkle of stardust would have helped her launch in this, the Rolling Stone era.

Lord knows Justin Trudeau—another political scion—doesn’t shy away from invoking his father’s memory. Most of us only found out about Justin Trudeau because he delivered the eulogy to his father at his funeral.

Now, Brian Mulroney isn’t about to gift his daughter with a similar “hello” moment, but the comparison with Trudeau can still be instructive for Caroline Mulroney as she sets out on her political career.

In many ways they’re polar opposites. Mulroney is hyper-credentialed, where Trudeau is not. Trudeau is intensely charismatic, where Mulroney has demonstrated little to date. Mulroney’s expectations are lower, while Trudeau’s were sky high (in part due to the dire health of his party at the time of his arrival).

What the Trudeau phenomenon should highlight to Mulroney is that credentials are no longer enough to carry the day. Style can help override substance (for a time, anyway) but the reverse isn’t now as likely to be true. You can have a CV like Caroline Mulroney’s, but if you can’t sell yourself like Trudeau can—particularly to younger voters who don’t watch television—you’ll have trouble catching on in the digital age.

Of course, Trudeau’s unique blessing is that his resonance with younger voters is echoed by the older voters who still revere his father. Caroline Mulroney’s father isn’t nearly as loved, and so she’ll enjoy no similar boost on that front, even if she isn’t looking for one.

Again, the lo-fi aspect to Mulroney’s launch might also be by design. It could be that Caroline Mulroney’s ambition is limited to serving the fine people of York-Simcoe well, as her predecessor Julia Munro has done for the past 22 years.

But there’s a reason Tories—both provincially and federally—have dreamt for a Mulroney candidacy for years; she’s the closest thing the Tories have to royalty. That goes double for the ever-shrinking progressive conservative wing of the federal party.

If Caroline Mulroney had wanted to scotch rumours of an ambition greater than what she signposted today, then it would already have been done. Her low-key launch, then, is better read as a play for the long haul.

And so the journey of a thousand miles begins with today’s first tentative step. Let’s see if she learns Trudeau’s lessons along the way.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Bumping this higher up now that we're 365 days away from the scheduled Ontario General Election.

Just to start things rolling, here's links to the major party info-machines ...

• Team Red
• Team Blue
• Team Orange

op:

No Team Green??

 

[The Bread Guy]

No Team Green??

Even though they don't have a seat in the Legislature, here you go ...

Bumping this higher up now that we're 365 days away from the scheduled Ontario General Election.

Just to start things rolling, here's links to the major party info-machines ...

• Team Red
• Team Blue
• Team Orange
• Team Green

op:

 

[Shrek1985]

The PCs are a dead letter in the coming election.

Unless and until they get a leader to make them more than a second-best liberal party, they don't have a chance in hell. Pat Brown has been an utter failure, yes, but he was preceded by failures as well. The party needs to purify itself, come back to the right, back to the base, grow a pair and start acting like conservatives. High time we got the "progressive" out of the party; that kind of Orwellian double speak was always trash. Of course that goes for the Federal Party too. We don't and we're looking at splitting the party, again.

We are looking at another liberal government and the NDP as official opposition against either a majority or a minority. The deserve this, thanks to the magnificent job of politicking they have been doing on the green energy portfolio, alone.

Even if she does not step down, blind hatred and loss of faith will do for the PCs, but too many still recall Rae Days to let the NDP gain enough to be the government of Ontario. Especially with examples of NDP rule in Alberta and BC to look to.

My prediction is that Wynne will take the bullet and step down, taking full responsibility for all the failures of her government and someone new will step up who hasn't had a lot of media attention. There will be calls for unity and togetherness and people will buy into the "How much we can achieve, if we just work together!" line and they will win, again.

 

[PuckChaser]

Are you kidding? The PC party could run a cardboard Fig11 target and make no policy announcements and still win an election based solely on the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement from the Liberal Party of Ontario. You'll only need to look to the upcoming testimony of Kathleen Wynne at the bribery trial of her former chief of staff to get all the negative press in the world; 6 months before the election.

 

[George Wallace]

Are you kidding? The PC party could run a cardboard Fig11 target and make no policy announcements and still win an election based solely on the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement from the Liberal Party of Ontario. You'll only need to look to the upcoming testimony of Kathleen Wynne at the bribery trial of her former chief of staff to get all the negative press in the world; 6 months before the election.

Unfortunately you underestimate the diehard Liberals.  Like the Alt-Left and Alt-Right, only their chosen views count and means that even if the Liberals replaced Wynne with a cat, the cat would win.  We witnessed that in several By-elections in the past six or seven months already.

 

[Scott]

Unfortunately you underestimate the diehard Liberals.  Like the Alt-Left and Alt-Right, only their chosen views count and means that even if the Liberals replaced Wynne with a cat, the cat would win.  We witnessed that in several By-elections in the past six or seven months already.

And diehard Conservatives don't suffer the same thing? :