2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[daftandbarmy]

I’m well plugged in with the rural working and small business class people from my neck of the woods. In no universe do they think that the politics or policies of Trudeau or Singh have their best interests in mind. And you can extrapolate that view to the suburban trades and rural resource workers.

Theses folks want “effective” Goverment and guess what? Many of them have been part of government by sitting on councils and boards in their local administrative districts so they know how governing works. The shit that comes out of Trudeau and his cabinet ministers mouths is not good governance.

Regardless, if the Conservatives don't do better in urban areas they're not going anywhere:

Two new solitudes — rural and urban — now define the Canadian political landscape​

According to Elections Canada, the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver — the country's three biggest cities — account for 116 of Canada's 338 ridings. And the results in those ridings help to tell the story of both the Liberal victory and a fundamental split in federal politics.

Of those 116 ridings, the Liberals won 86 — more than half of their national total. The Conservatives won just eight.

That Liberal strength in cities is part of an urban-rural split that now defines the electoral map in Canada. New research suggests the urban-rural divide between the Liberal and Conservative parties has never been wider.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/2021-election-rural-urban-conservative-liberal-1.6197095

 

[Halifax Tar]

PP on Twitter:

"Liberals say common people should shut up and do what the “experts” tell them.

Here’s the thing: the common people are the experts."

This is what's dangerous about populism: common people are NOT experts.

We need pluralism; respect for the general wishes and rights of the people while understanding that there are those who know more and are better informed to make recommendations and decisions. I don't go to my neighbour for health care advice.

That completely depends on your topic. And what equals a common person ?

That has to be the most illiberal line you've ever written on this forum. And if you want to know why what's happening is happening to your side of the political spectrum, its that statement right there.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Regardless, if the Conservatives don't do better in urban areas they're not going anywhere:

Two new solitudes — rural and urban — now define the Canadian political landscape​

According to Elections Canada, the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver — the country's three biggest cities — account for 116 of Canada's 338 ridings. And the results in those ridings help to tell the story of both the Liberal victory and a fundamental split in federal politics.

Of those 116 ridings, the Liberals won 86 — more than half of their national total. The Conservatives won just eight.

That Liberal strength in cities is part of an urban-rural split that now defines the electoral map in Canada. New research suggests the urban-rural divide between the Liberal and Conservative parties has never been wider.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/2021-election-rural-urban-conservative-liberal-1.6197095

lol three cities have 116 seats out of 338. SMH.

 

[Halifax Tar]

For the past few years, the NDP, Democrats and Labour have been slowly abandoning the blue-collar working class in favour of the “bougie” “champagne socialists”, “limousine liberals”, faculty lounge types and other pointy headed eggheads. I don’t think it was intentional, just that the “bourgeoisie” types started drinking their own bathwater and became disconnected from the working class. The “working class” in a lot of ways are more “conservative” than what the party activist class became.

They may have thought their policy prescriptions would help the working class, as opposed to unfettered capitalism and gutting the welfare state, but the working class began to feel talked down to by the “bourgeoisie” because they never really had much in common with each other, except “sticking it to the man”. They began to differ on who “the man” is.

I find I rarely agree with you, but this most is one of the most insightful things I have read in a long time.

What left doesn't understand is talking down to people instantly causes division.

 

[FSTO]

Regardless, if the Conservatives don't do better in urban areas they're not going anywhere:

Two new solitudes — rural and urban — now define the Canadian political landscape​

According to Elections Canada, the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver — the country's three biggest cities — account for 116 of Canada's 338 ridings. And the results in those ridings help to tell the story of both the Liberal victory and a fundamental split in federal politics.

Of those 116 ridings, the Liberals won 86 — more than half of their national total. The Conservatives won just eight.

That Liberal strength in cities is part of an urban-rural split that now defines the electoral map in Canada. New research suggests the urban-rural divide between the Liberal and Conservative parties has never been wider.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/2021-election-rural-urban-conservative-liberal-1.6197095

I wonder what the results would be if even 75% of eligible Canadians actually voted.

 

[brihard]

I wonder what the results would be if even 75% of eligible Canadians actually voted.

The largest cohort of people who don’t vote is young adults, so I suspect greater turnout would edge the results politically leftwards.

 

[FSTO]

The largest cohort of people who don’t vote is young adults, so I suspect greater turnout would edge the results politically leftwards.

My daughter is pretty leftish, her and her cohorts absolutely detest the Liberal Party in General and Justin Trudeau in particular. If they got out and voted in bigger numbers the net benefactors could be the Conservatives.

 

[mariomike]

The largest cohort of people who don’t vote is young adults, so I suspect greater turnout would edge the results politically leftwards.

In addition to a possible "generation gap",

and urban - rural,

A reported gender divide,

The biggest divide in Canadian politics? Men vs. Women. - Macleans.ca

Philippe J. Fournier: If only men voted, the Liberal and Conservatives would be in a statistical tie. Only women: the Liberals win a crushing 226 seats.

macleans.ca

Women+ voted at higher rates than men in all age groups up to age group 65–74, after which the trend reversed.

Turnout by Gender - Estimation of Voter Turnout by Age Group and Gender at the 2021 General Election

---

www.elections.ca

Also, "support in immigrant communities a crucial issue",

As Tories review election loss, weak support in immigrant communities a crucial issue

Of the 41 ridings in Canada where more than half the population is racialized, the Conservatives won just one in the 2021 election — Calgary Forest Lawn

nationalpost.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Fair.

However, conservative parties are traditionally "small govt" and "let the market decide", which isn't usually what the working-class is looking for.

That too depends. Is the government seen to be on your side? Then you want more of it. If not then you want less of it.

If the government is dispensing manna you want more. If it is taxing the bread off your table, constraining your ability to earn more bread with rules, regulations and certifications, restricting your associations and condemning your utterances then you probably want less.

 

[Kirkhill]

That completely depends on your topic. And what equals a common person?

Anybody operating outside of their experience is indistinguishable from a common person.

Expert
Experience

That has to be the most illiberal line you've ever written on this forum. And if you want to know why what's happening is happening to your side of the political spectrum, its that statement right there.

 

[Kirkhill]

The largest cohort of people who don’t vote is young adults, so I suspect greater turnout would edge the results politically leftwards.

2015 - The Globe and Mail

Younger Canadians more left wing, could shift political landscape: study

When asked about government spending priorities, people under 35 are significantly more likely to advocate higher spending on education, the environment and health care, the study found

www.theglobeandmail.com

2022 (May) - The National Post

FIRST READING: Youth are fleeing the Liberals (but they still detest the Tories)

Green leader casually accuses Canada of "ongoing genocide"

nationalpost.com

2022 (Sep) - CBC

How Pierre Poilievre is winning new support among young, diverse voters​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-bipoc-youth-support-1.6586065

You don't needs all of them. You don't even need all of them. You just need more than you had while keeping what you have.

 

[brihard]

2015 - The Globe and Mail

Younger Canadians more left wing, could shift political landscape: study

When asked about government spending priorities, people under 35 are significantly more likely to advocate higher spending on education, the environment and health care, the study found

www.theglobeandmail.com

2022 (May) - The National Post

FIRST READING: Youth are fleeing the Liberals (but they still detest the Tories)

Green leader casually accuses Canada of "ongoing genocide"

nationalpost.com

2022 (Sep) - CBC

How Pierre Poilievre is winning new support among young, diverse voters​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-bipoc-youth-support-1.6586065

You don't needs all of them. You don't even need all of them. You just need more than you had while keeping what you have.

Mm hm- but those who Poillievre has already attracted probably tend to being a bit more politically engaged than current non-voters. I suspect a leftwards skew would be more pronounced among younger voters who are less engaged and vote without much thought. I’m completely speculating of course.

If, broadly, there was an increase in voting participation, more of it would be young and would probably disproportionately benefit NDP and to a lesser extent green. LPC and CPC would of course pick some up too. If anything, it might chip away at a few seats that the LPC narrowly won over the NDP. Conceivably, coupled with a hypothetical better CPC showing, that could push a weak LPC minority towards a weak CPC minority.

A completely separate consideration, the federal electoral districts are being adjusted based on the past year’s population changes. that might make a different in some ridings.

 

[Kirkhill]

Mm hm- but those who Poillievre has already attracted probably tend to being a bit more politically engaged than current non-voters. I suspect a leftwards skew would be more pronounced among younger voters who are less engaged and vote without much thought. I’m completely speculating of course.

If, broadly, there was an increase in voting participation, more of it would be young and would probably disproportionately benefit NDP and to a lesser extent green. LPC and CPC would of course pick some up too. If anything, it might chip away at a few seats that the LPC narrowly won over the NDP. Conceivably, coupled with a hypothetical better CPC showing, that could push a weak LPC minority towards a weak CPC minority.

A completely separate consideration, the federal electoral districts are being adjusted based on the past year’s population changes. that might make a different in some ridings.

I think participation is directly correlated with dissatisfaction. If you are satisfied then you can ignore your surroundings. If you are dissatisfied then you can't ignore them.

A lot of 30 year olds can't afford to live on their own in their own house with their own family and their own car. A fairly modest group of expectations.

 

[RangerRay]

I find I rarely agree with you, but this most is one of the most insightful things I have read in a long time.

What left doesn't understand is talking down to people instantly causes division.

I think we agree on more than you think. I think where we differ is the execution of the current iteration of the Tory party.

 

[Rifleman62]

Did one of the posts say "work" and "Trudeau" in the same sentence>

 

[Kirkhill]

I think we agree on more than you think. I think where we differ is the execution of the current iteration of the Tory party.

It may depend on how much of a change you think is necessary and what you are prepared to tolerate in order to achieve that change.

See my shopping list above - home, family, car. Do you have those? Do you know people who don't have those even though they are working hard?

 

[Lumber]

That completely depends on your topic. And what equals a common person ?

That has to be the most illiberal line you've ever written on this forum. And if you want to know why what's happening is happening to your side of the political spectrum, its that statement right there.

Now THAT is the nicest thing you've ever said to me! Jk. I know you meant small 'L' liberal not big "L' Liberal.

The common people, in this context, is the collective assembly of people who are awake and engaged regarding a particular issue or subject. Within that collective, you likely have some "experts" (skill, knowledge, experience) regarding that particular issue, but the collective as a whole (except maybe if very specific circumstances) does not posses a level competency required to consider their opinions authoritative.

Sure, there are issues where you don't necessarily need experts, but for all the important issues (finance, health, education, defence) I don't want either our policies or executions being governed simply by whichever crowd happens to be the loudest.

 

[RangerRay]

Did one of the posts say "work" and "Trudeau" in the same sentence>

Maybe if it was “Trudeau” and “United Front Work Department”?

Seriously, I think he works hard at campaigning. It is the only thing he does. Working at governing though, not so much.

 

[Remius]

Now THAT is the nicest thing you've ever said to me! Jk. I know you meant small 'L' liberal not big "L' Liberal.

The common people, in this context, is the collective assembly of people who are awake and engaged regarding a particular issue or subject. Within that collective, you likely have some "experts" (skill, knowledge, experience) regarding that particular issue, but the collective as a whole (except maybe if very specific circumstances) does not posses a level competency required to consider their opinions authoritative.

Sure, there are issues where you don't necessarily need experts, but for all the important issues (finance, health, education, defence) I don't want either our policies or executions being governed simply by whichever crowd happens to be the loudest.

I suspect the “experts” he was referring to has to do with your own life. You know what you need and how you want to get there. No one else.

The issue is when we try and tell people they are experts when it comes to things they are not nor should not be experts in. Worse, encouraging people to not rely on experts and or distrust them. Measles is making a come back exactly because people think they are experts and have been encouraged to distrust the real experts.

 

[Kirkhill]

Now THAT is the nicest thing you've ever said to me! Jk. I know you meant small 'L' liberal not big "L' Liberal.

The common people, in this context, is the collective assembly of people who are awake and engaged regarding a particular issue or subject. Within that collective, you likely have some "experts" (skill, knowledge, experience) regarding that particular issue, but the collective as a whole (except maybe if very specific circumstances) does not posses a level competency required to consider their opinions authoritative.

Sure, there are issues where you don't necessarily need experts, but for all the important issues (finance, health, education, defence) I don't want either our policies or executions being governed simply by whichever crowd happens to be the loudest.

I encourage you to read the Lockdown Files currently being published. Ample instances of experts being asked to offer advice at the limits of their experience, the experts offering multiple workable courses of action, civil servants baffled by the lack of clarity (ie simplicity) and politicians appealing to their riding presidents, consultants and communications advisors as what will offer them the best chance of being elected next time at the polls.