2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Haggis]

The election was closer than the vote result shows, but not in the way you're thinking.

Liberals needed 10 more seats to hit 170.
...

15156 votes away from 170 seats. All the LPC technically needed was their percentage of the popular vote to go from 32.6 to 32.7 and they are in government for 4 years. And don't think for a second the LPC doesn't know this. They will be targeting these ridings with everything they have next election.

Now if Justin Trudeau knows he is 20k votes away from a majority government, why would he not run again?

He can attempt to call an election at any time if he feels the conditions are right for him to get a majority.

 

[Remius]

He can attempt to call an election at any time if he feels the conditions are right for him to get a majority.

He tried last time. And wasted everyone’s time. I don’t think he will make a good calculation next time either.

He’s won two back to back minority governments. If he runs I have no doubt he can win. It just depends on who he is facing.

I’m willing to concede that a PP led CPC would be the best scenario for him to get a majority.

But as always and as we have seen, campaigns matter.

 

[Haggis]

He tried last time. And wasted everyone’s time. I don’t think he will make a good calculation next time either.

He’s won two back to back minority governments. If he runs I have no doubt he can win. It just depends on who he is facing.

So, against Bergin he would probably win a crushing majority.

 

[Navy_Pete]

The only reason I can see Trudeau not running is how hard this has been on his family and marriage, as there is really no credible threat to another LPC minority.

Anyone who thinks PP is the solution doesn't pay attention to how polarising his attack dog style is or how thin his resume really is. The guy has been an MP for a long time, but outside of some soundbites in the house and on committees, but the only thing he ever seems to have accomplished was introduce the 'Fair Elections Act' which really just added in a bunch of voter restrictions and restrict what the chief electoral officers could do, so was a pretty US republican style voter suppression bill designed to combat the non-existant electoral fraud.

Given that he was minister for electoral reform for a year, really don't want to hear anyone complain about how the system doesn't favour the CPCs.

Guy came out of uni, became an MP at 25 but rates himself as a populist, man of the people, despite never having had a real job. Classic 'kid in short pants' that is trying to position himself as a credible leader when his only life experience is within the rose coloured halls of Parliament and disassociated from reality. Probably fit in perfectly with the inflated egos at TBS though.

So if JT 'just wasn't ready' or 'wasn't experienced' what is this guy? Skippy just seems like Scheer 2.0, but possibly more annoying. Sounds like a real recipe for electoral success....

 

[Halifax Tar]

The only reason I can see Trudeau not running is how hard this has been on his family and marriage, as there is really no credible threat to another LPC minority.

Anyone who thinks PP is the solution doesn't pay attention to how polarising his attack dog style is or how thin his resume really is. The guy has been an MP for a long time, but outside of some soundbites in the house and on committees, but the only thing he ever seems to have accomplished was introduce the 'Fair Elections Act' which really just added in a bunch of voter restrictions and restrict what the chief electoral officers could do, so was a pretty US republican style voter suppression bill designed to combat the non-existant electoral fraud.

Given that he was minister for electoral reform for a year, really don't want to hear anyone complain about how the system doesn't favour the CPCs.

Guy came out of uni, became an MP at 25 but rates himself as a populist, man of the people, despite never having had a real job. Classic 'kid in short pants' that is trying to position himself as a credible leader when his only life experience is within the rose coloured halls of Parliament and disassociated from reality. Probably fit in perfectly with the inflated egos at TBS though.

So if JT 'just wasn't ready' or 'wasn't experienced' what is this guy? Skippy just seems like Scheer 2.0, but possibly more annoying. Sounds like a real recipe for electoral success....

You've hit the nail on the head.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

The only reason I can see Trudeau not running is how hard this has been on his family and marriage,

Marriage?? I think living with another woman pretty much did that one in.....

 

[Altair]

Marriage?? I think living with another woman pretty much did that one in.....

Proof of this?

 

[Altair]

He can attempt to call an election at any time if he feels the conditions are right for him to get a majority.

He could, except Canadians are not fans of being dragged off to the polls for purely partisan reasons.

Woe to any party that forces an election it seems. Justin Trudeau will bide his time, and probably do his full mandate before making that mistake again, if the opposition lets him of course.

But the math remains, can he hold on to what he has while finding another 15156 votes spread evenly though those 10 ridings? Another 100k votes overall in ontario, the maritimes and quebec should be enough to grab what he missed.

So if the political winds are in his sails, hes 10 seats and a stone throw away in votes away from a majority, i think hes a shoe in to run again.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So what's the standard for a thick resume? Trudeau?

 

[Remius]

So what's the standard for a thick resume? Trudeau?

Not sure. But the CPC sure made a lot of noise about Trudeau’s. And his was thicker than Poilievre’s.

 

[Altair]

So what's the standard for a thick resume? Trudeau?

Probably a Chretien, a Martin, or a Mulcair.

It would be just a tad hypocritical for the CPC to have made such a big deal about Trudeaus lack of experience (everyone remembers the nice hair attack ads, yes?) and then run with PP.

Just like it would be hypocritical for the LPC to attack PP on his lack of experience, but the LPC seems to know this. With Andrew Scheer, they never attacked his lack of experience directly, they leaked it to the news (most likely) and let the media do it for them.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Those examples are just a roundabout way of saying a thick resume is worthless. Chretien, the weathervane, who helped blow up his party out of spite. Martin, the ditherer who helped blow up his party over his leadership ambition. Mulcair, who threw away whatever Jack Layton had achieved by deciding that "anybody but Conservative" was the way to vote (in effect, "in most cases, vote Liberal").

 

[Altair]

Those examples are just a roundabout way of saying a thick resume is worthless. Chretien, the weathervane, who helped blow up his party out of spite.

Chretien is the 5th longest serving Canadian PM, with 3 majority wins.

Martin, the ditherer who helped blow up his party over his leadership ambition.

Martin sucked.

Mulcair, who threw away whatever Jack Layton had achieved by deciding that "anybody but Conservative" was the way to vote (in effect, "in most cases, vote Liberal").

Mulcair sucked.

So in recent history, those with the most experience in politics have been the most successful, Harper and Trudeau. Maybe Freeland changes this, maybe not. But it remains, the CPC made a big stink about Trudeaus lack of experience, it would be hypocritical for them to run with a guy with even less. (Two guys if you include Scheer)

 

[suffolkowner]

I think you would be hard pressed to fill out a requirements card for MP/MPP/Cabinet/Minister/Premier/PM its a fools errand. Its a popularity contest all the way through competence in any measure is not required or demonstrated the only thing that matters is electability.

PP might be electable or not time will tell eventually it may get to the point where it doesn't matter who the CPC has as a leader when the electorate gets tired of the Federal liberals much like in Ontario but I dont think we're there yet

 

[QV]

That mean hidden agenda sinister Harper looks better and better every day.

To those levying criticism at PP, are you saying another Trudeau term is preferable over PP?

A number of you voted for Trudeau, will you do that again after all that’s been said and done if PP is the CPC candidate?

 

[Remius]

That mean hidden agenda sinister Harper looks better and better every day.

To those levying criticism at PP, are you saying another Trudeau term is preferable over PP?

A number of you voted for Trudeau, will you do that again after all that’s been said and done if PP is the CPC candidate?

I voted CPC last election. I might not (actually will not) if PP is the leader. I’d rather PP lose to whoever even if Trudeau, if it means the CPC comes to its senses and either splits or course corrects. I’d be willing to risk another LOC minority gvt.

Does it mean voting for Trudeau? Campaign will decide that but my vote has a direct impact in PPs riding and can impact if PP gets re-elected in his own riding. Lots of people in the riding are not too happy with him right now but it’s hard to gauge if that will be enough to see him defeated. And time can change that as well.

 

[Altair]

That mean hidden agenda sinister Harper looks better and better every day.

To those levying criticism at PP, are you saying another Trudeau term is preferable over PP?

A number of you voted for Trudeau, will you do that again after all that’s been said and done if PP is the CPC candidate?

They may not vote for Trudeau, but they wont be voting CPC either.

 

[Navy_Pete]

That mean hidden agenda sinister Harper looks better and better every day.

To those levying criticism at PP, are you saying another Trudeau term is preferable over PP?

A number of you voted for Trudeau, will you do that again after all that’s been said and done if PP is the CPC candidate?

Yes, Trudeau is preferrable over PP.

PP cozied up to the Freedumb convoy far too quickly and JT's condemnation was pretty over the top, but I think a Trudeau lead LPC will do a less bad job then a PP lead CPC. I wouldn't choose either though, and being 'less shit' than the other guy is hardly an aspirational goal.

I think the current government did a pretty good job overall navigating through the pandemic, especially when you compare them to other countries. A lot of things could have been done better in retrospect but for a first time in a modern pandemic things weren't too bad, but really was mostly just letting the actual public servants do the work after providing some high level guidance.

CPCs currently does too much pandering to the so-cons, and was really stupid to pretend climate change isn't a thing and the convention. Until they get a leader who is strong enough to get the wingnuts under control and quit bringing up abortion and other long settled issues they will continue to lose ground.

A lot of people didn't like Harper, but no one was worried about a backslide of some basic social reforms based on religious beliefs. Honestly wish Leslyn Lewis wasn't a so-con, she seems great otherwise. But that's an instant hard no.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Nice to know Doug Ford and Jason Kenney are done then

Ford probably did better than any other premier. He also had almost 16 million people to tend to. Doug Ford is going nowhere. He'll still be Premier in July.

 

[suffolkowner]

I don't know I might prefer PP to Trudeau. Ill wait and see how it all shakes out theres probably a few years before it matters