2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[TacticalTea]

both the Feds and Provinces should focus their efforts away from the major cities and work to make smaller communities and cities more liveable and able to support primary businesses there. But they won't as major cities are vote rich.

Totally agree, that's why I prefer a voting system that slightly favours those communities and a political system that grants more autonomy to smaller polities (provinces, regions, cities).

I'm not advocating for ''full autonomy'', my interpretation being that it means the province has no role in a city's business, is that what you meant? Just enhanced autonomy.

 

[TacticalTea]

Can't figure out what you mean. There is no pretending "this part of spending is from revenues, and this part is from borrowing". People can say that, but it's meaningless.

True. But;

Most of the federal government's spending is from transfers to individuals or provinces (who in turn spend a lot on direct transfers to individuals). That money is not counted as part of the GDP.

Much of the massive hike in federal spending - and thus, in the national debt - under Trudeau has been via direct transfers. Child care benefit, provincial health transfer hike, COVID CERB et al, etc..

 

[brihard]

Totally agree, that's why I prefer a voting system that slightly favours those communities

Good news for you then: we have one. Rural and remote ridings are overrepresented in the House of Commons; there are more constituents per seat in the big cities, fewer in the prairies. And then of course there’s also the Senate, which, for all its faults, does heavily overrepresented the less populous provinces.

 

[FSTO]

Good news for you then: we have one. Rural and remote ridings are overrepresented in the House of Commons; there are more constituents per seat in the big cities, fewer in the prairies. And then of course there’s also the Senate, which, for all its faults, does heavily overrepresented the less populous provinces.

I’ll direct you to my post about where actual power resides at the federal level, trained seals and well fed trained seals.

 

[mariomike]

Rural and remote ridings are overrepresented in the House of Commons; there are more constituents per seat in the big cities, fewer in the prairies. And then of course there’s also the Senate, which, for all its faults, does heavily overrepresented the less populous provinces.

Maybe not overrepresented enough to satisfy some people.

 

[TacticalTea]

Good news for you then: we have one. Rural and remote ridings are overrepresented in the House of Commons; there are more constituents per seat in the big cities, fewer in the prairies. And then of course there’s also the Senate, which, for all its faults, does heavily overrepresented the less populous provinces.

Yep, that's why I said it doesn't need radical changing.

Just some tweaking.

 

[GR66]

True. But;

Most of the federal government's spending is from transfers to individuals or provinces (who in turn spend a lot on direct transfers to individuals). That money is not counted as part of the GDP.

Much of the massive hike in federal spending - and thus, in the national debt - under Trudeau has been via direct transfers. Child care benefit, provincial health transfer hike, COVID CERB et al, etc..

But when the individuals that receive those direct transfers spend the money THAT spending becomes part of the GDP. The economy doesn't separate the money that an individual received from their employment income and is spent on home renovations from the home renovation money they spend that came from government transfers.

 

[GR66]

That debt mostly consists of direct transfer payments, which are not included in the ''goods and services'' calculation, even if they would otherwise be included under the umbrella of government spending.

In other words, the government can't even increase real GDP by sending everyone a thousand dollar cheque (though it would probably increase nominal GDP indirectly by causing inflation, but nominal GDP is rather meaningless).

Now, is trade balance a better indicator of an economy's strength? Not so sure. In the G20, Russia and China dominate that leaderboard whereas Canada and the US figure poorly, the latter having the greatest trade deficit of any economy. Yet, would you say the Reds have stronger, more robust, or more diversified economies?

Doubtful.

Canada maintains a trade surplus which is good and what keeps a relatively small country in terms of population like us in the top 10 GDP earning nations in the world.

Russia, despite its shrinking population and generally moribund economy has financed it's continued status as a "major" power almost completely on the back of its oil and gas exports.

The massive growth of China's GDP both in overall terms and in per capita terms comes down to their massive trade surplus with the rest of the world.

The United States is a special case and not an apples-to-apples comparison. The status of the US Dollar as the defacto global currency compensates for their trade deficit with the rest of the World. For example (from the article) "As of the fourth quarter of 2019, it [US Dollar] makes up over 60% of all known central bank foreign exchange reserves." If the US Dollar wasn't the global reserve currency then absolutely the US would be in dire economic straits due to their massive debt and trade deficit.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Trade deficit/surplus isn't that big a deal. The only thing people can do with Canadian dollars is use them to buy things priced in Canadian dollars. A path that doesn't show up in trade balance is investment of Canadian dollars in Canada.

The rural/urban House imbalance we have is enough to be visible, but not enough to effectively matter.

 

[TacticalTea]

Canada maintains a trade surplus which is good and what keeps a relatively small country in terms of population like us in the top 10 GDP earning nations in the world.

Russia, despite its shrinking population and generally moribund economy has financed it's continued status as a "major" power almost completely on the back of its oil and gas exports.

The massive growth of China's GDP both in overall terms and in per capita terms comes down to their massive trade surplus with the rest of the world.

The United States is a special case and not an apples-to-apples comparison. The status of the US Dollar as the defacto global currency compensates for their trade deficit with the rest of the World. For example (from the article) "As of the fourth quarter of 2019, it [US Dollar] makes up over 60% of all known central bank foreign exchange reserves." If the US Dollar wasn't the global reserve currency then absolutely the US would be in dire economic straits due to their massive debt and trade deficit.

Hm? Canada does not have a trade surplus. Happy to have my facts corrected but I haven't seen any source stating it did.

 

[Remius]

Hm? Canada does not have a trade surplus. Happy to have my facts corrected but I haven't seen any source stating it did.

Monthly Trade Report – November 2023

Information, statistics and analysis related to the Canadian economy and international trade and investment.

www.international.gc.ca

Canada Trade Balance [Up-to-date Chart & Data] | 1988 - 2023 | CEIC Data

Canada Trade Balance recorded a surplus of 1.5 USD bn in Sep 2023, compared with a surplus of 704.1 USD mn in the previous month. Canada Trade Balance data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1988 to Sep 2023, with an averaged value of 861.7 USD mn. The data reached an all-time high of 6.4...

www.ceicdata.com

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Canada has a Trade deficit but a Current Account surplus due to the monetary flux (foreign investment in Canada, purchase of financial assets, etc.).

 

[TacticalTea]

Monthly Trade Report – November 2023

Information, statistics and analysis related to the Canadian economy and international trade and investment.

www.international.gc.ca

Canada Trade Balance [Up-to-date Chart & Data] | 1988 - 2023 | CEIC Data

Canada Trade Balance recorded a surplus of 1.5 USD bn in Sep 2023, compared with a surplus of 704.1 USD mn in the previous month. Canada Trade Balance data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1988 to Sep 2023, with an averaged value of 861.7 USD mn. The data reached an all-time high of 6.4...

www.ceicdata.com

From your link.

I guess my info is pre-COVID!

Thanks tho.

I think this proves my point that the trade balance isn't particularly relevant in terms of proving an economy's strength, given that we've only been having this surplus in the middle of an economic downturn. Might be a sign that we are holding out better than others, maybe not. Would have to look into it.

 

[TacticalTea]

@GR66 what you said about direct transfers then being used for goods and services makes sense (although a good portion would also be saved up). I'd have to look into it, it's been a while since I've really delved into my Econ books...

 

[lenaitch]

I don't get your point about how cities don't exist constitutionally. They're a creation of provinces sure... So what? The provinces are free to grant them more autonomy as they see fit.

Simply that they are not mentioned in the Constitution at all, let alone in the division of powers sections. All municipalities are a form of corporation and 'children of their province', who can deal with them how they please (as we have seen in Ontario). Having your power dependent on the mood of another level of government is not constitutionally protected.

To be clear, I'm not advocating one way or the other. Maybe big cities should be on their own, but what about the 'slightly not so big cities'? For those who advocate, I'm never clear on what powers they wish devolved. or how they imagine they would be governed. I'm not exactly sure how the Constitution could be amended to accommodate their inclusion. Some kind of population standard or could Upper Rubber Boot apply?

 

[Remius]

They’d end up with non voting seats is what might likely happen. Lessening their representation I would think.

 

[Kirkhill]

Simply that they are not mentioned in the Constitution at all, let alone in the division of powers sections. All municipalities are a form of corporation and 'children of their province', who can deal with them how they please (as we have seen in Ontario). Having your power dependent on the mood of another level of government is not constitutionally protected.

To be clear, I'm not advocating one way or the other. Maybe big cities should be on their own, but what about the 'slightly not so big cities'? For those who advocate, I'm never clear on what powers they wish devolved. or how they imagine they would be governed. I'm not exactly sure how the Constitution could be amended to accommodate their inclusion. Some kind of population standard or could Upper Rubber Boot apply?

That is the ultimate rationale for why we will continue to retain the monarch, and China will retain the CCP. It is hard to impossible to define what comes next.

 

[suffolkowner]

At this point in time there doesnt appear to be any reasonable chance at ammending the constitution, either in Canada or the US, in any way so we are likely stuck with the system we have. Written or unwritten. The difficulty in resolving how 80% of the population in 20% of the country making the rules for 20% of the population in 80% of the country remains but is exacerbated by how much the lives have diverged and how quickly

 

[Good2Golf]

At this point in time there doesnt appear to be any reasonable chance at ammending the constitution, either in Canada or the US, in any way so we are likely stuck with the system we have. Written or unwritten. The difficulty in resolving how 80% of the population in 20% of the country making the rules for 20% of the population in 80% of the country remains but is exacerbated by how much the lives have diverged and how quickly

So what’s the metric for fair representation, if not population? Area? Provincial equality? Share of GDP? Other?

 

[suffolkowner]

So what’s the metric for fair representation, if not population? Area? Provincial equality? Share of GDP? Other?

The representation may be fair but I'm not sure the results are. I dont know if I have a solution. Im just pointing out I dont see a solution constitutionally right now.