2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict
- Thread starter brihard
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Yes, same with Great Lakes but that pipeline in the past was supplied with Venezuela oil but line was reversed to use Alberta oil. I expect the North South lines from Alberta that go to the Gulf will be reversed but not the East West. Trump will make it a law just like he has forced a defunct coal fired Colorado generation station to restart.
Altair
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Yeah, people are delusional thinking Canadian oil is fine here. We largely filled the void that Venezuelan oil left when Chavez messed up. With this action, Venezuelan oil is about to displace a lot of Canadian oil and pipelines that were used to move our crude south will be used to move Venezuelan crude north to the american midwest and others.
QV
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That message is just a bonus.
Altair
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FYP
QV
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That works too.
I think we need to chill with the alarmism. We don't even know what deal is coming. And who knows how long it will take to rebuild the Venezuelan oil sector. And beyond that who knows what oil US and global oil demand will be then and where Venezuelan crude can get shipped to. We've got TMX done. We'll build another probably. And the US doesn't go to zero on Canadian crude.
Altair
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Yeah, our geography does not make for easy infrastructure projects.
That spur north of the official TCH is about as much redundancy as you're going to see. You will notice that rail and road open up and move northwards a lot west of winnipeg, and past the Canadian Shield.
One can try to fight geography but its usually best to work with it. The USA has more favourable geography and thus builds grids. We have the Canadian Shield and only build what we need to through it.
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For sure there will be an impact. Though the US might be going into a long term guerrilla war situation. Its going to take years to get the oil running properly again and the movement to the coast from inland goes through a mountain range with two tunnels. Trump will be long gone before this play fully pans out.
Some people are expecting famine in Venezuela in the near term, as they import a lot of their foodstuffs and the government disillusion will create more issues in the short term.
Lots of balls in the air right now.
Altair
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I was chill yesterday. Things change.
The Venezuelan oil industry today pumps out 1m bpd with it's devestated infrastructure. If they can get that industry up and running within the next 5-10 years with the stated purpose of feeding their gulf refineries, what do you think that means for Canada?
And Trump clearly has a bone to pick with Canada and CUSMA, are you thinking he's blind to the potential to hang this over our heads? 10 percent across the board tariffs built into CUSMA or we stop buying your oil? it was laughable yesterday. It's plausible today.
What government dissolution? Maduro’s out - increasingly it looks like he was handed over - but his government, at present, lives on.
Altair
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even with the shambles of a oil industry in Venezuela right now, they could displace around 800k bpd in Canadian oil. That's significant.
Altair
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All well and good until China delivers notice that it views Taiwan as Chinese in similar fashion.
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They could displace it yes. But US shale could run out of steam, Russian oil could end full off the market, they could find more oil in X country and so on etc... It is what it is. I don't think the current US gov't is organized enough to exploit this despite DJ's "were going to take their oil" comments. At least in the short term.
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It was a serious issue there in 1994, one of the guys in my brothers company got kidnapped and never seen again. I had lowlifes in other Venezuelan towns warn me about how crazy Caracas was. Never went into that city during my time there as it was just to dangerous.
Altair
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If the US government said "We are going to take their oil" I would agree. They couldn't run a lemonade stand.
But he said "US oil giants are going to go in and take their oil". Say what you will about American capitalism, but they know how to exploit 3rd world nations of their resources, especially oil.
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Also stealing!
The timelines on your post don't match. CUSMA is needed asap. And heck, any such clause could well push a teteering American economy into recession. It's already a K shaped recovery where everybody but AI tech companies is in stagflation to recession. He does something like that with CUSMA and resulting inflation will actually cause a recession when the Feds are forced to raise rates. Maybe he doesn't care. Who knows. But you can bet every Congress critter absolutely does.
Long term? I am just not worried. Go look at Iraq. They actually still had some talent left in that country. Their oil was easier to manage that heavy and sour Venezuelan crude. And the Americans running that project were still more competent than Trumpers. Still took Iraq 8 years to return to pre-war levels. Oh and most of that money went to European oilcos in the end. You're worried about a world where Trump rallies American industry to go rebuild a massive chunk of Venezuela's economy. And then has to do it in a way that doesn't cause Venezuelans to revolt against American control. And do that in a country where most of the talent fled. Oh and the oilcos have to scrounge up capital for all this by cutting returns to their investors right now. But sure, we probably should take getting another pipeline to the West Coast a bit more seriously now.
