2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[MilEME09]

The foreign agent registry is imminent. Put it in play and then use those tools to bring them in line or hammer them.

100% we need much stricter control on foreign influence.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Don't need to run the place directly if you control where the oil goes, and doesn't, right?

Rubio says U.S. won’t govern Venezuela but will press for changes through oil blockade

Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested Sunday that the United States would not take a day-to-day role in governing Venezuela other than enforcing an existing 'oil quarantine' on the country, a turnaround after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a day earlier that the U.S. would be running...

www.cp24.com

If VEN depends on oil money as much as people smarter than me say, I'm guessing Team America has all kinds of levers in place to ... finesse who can buy & sell VEN oil, as well as how it's shipped, insured and paid for.

 

[GR66]

Don't need to run the place directly if you control where the oil goes, and doesn't, right?

Rubio says U.S. won’t govern Venezuela but will press for changes through oil blockade

Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested Sunday that the United States would not take a day-to-day role in governing Venezuela other than enforcing an existing 'oil quarantine' on the country, a turnaround after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a day earlier that the U.S. would be running...

www.cp24.com

If VEN depends on oil money as much as people smarter than me say, I'm guessing Team America has all kinds of levers in place to ... finesse who can buy & sell VEN oil, as well as how it's shipped, insured and paid for.

They won't be selling Venezuelan oil....they'll be shipping it to the US Gulf Coast for "inspection" and "storage"

 

[The Bread Guy]

They won't be selling Venezuelan oil....they'll be shipping it to the US Gulf Coast for "inspection" and "storage"

Maybe not even that - or not just. I'm guessing the U.S. has all sorts of levers/tools to ... fine tune who can buy/sell VEN oil, who can ship it, whether it can be insured and who gets to get paid for it.

 

[brihard]

Maybe not even that - or not just. I'm guessing the U.S. has all sorts of levers/tools to ... fine tune who can buy/sell VEN oil, who can ship it, whether it can be insured and who gets to get paid for it.

That’s essentially already the case given the very recent surge in enforcement of America’s unilateral sanctions. If they tighten further to essentially blockade Venezuela’s oil, they’ll have considerable ability to further wreck Venezuela’s economy.

 

[Good2Golf]

Euros, yes; Yuan no. Let’s not take our eye off the ball here. The U.S. is a much more erratic and quasi-adversarial party, and can do a lot more damage in the short term, but China’s an outright adversary and much smarter and more disciplined and is vastly more dangerous in the long run.

True, but trying in Yuan if even temporarily to make a point to others, is proportionately less destructive than failing to substantively deal with foreign hybrid warfare being conducted against us now. FI registry, positive start, but actions against the UFWD and other related elements is wanting.

 

[YZT580]

I’ve been tracking that’s well.

America’s left hand and right hand are not talking. Trump‘s tariff war has probably done more damage to the future of the USD then they’re trying to keep the USD Petro the prime monetary tool for oil transactions.

Edit to add: it would be interesting if Canada investigated selling all its petroleum products Eastward in euros and to China in Yuan.

the U.S. isn't going to worry too much about the limited amount of product that we ship off-shore. We will still be negotiating a route for a single pipeline around the Ear-winged-Black-Forest-Swampland-Frog's (love it) breeding ground when the Venezuelan refineries are back up and running at full capacity.

 

[Kirkhill]

I am really curious how we do this without some kind of business with China. And how much would the US allow in terms of our independence.

500,000 BPD is not a big ask.
TMX Burnaby has a capacity of 890,000 BPD and it is currently operating above 90% capacity.
More than half of that is going to China.

The capacity is due to increase by 40% using Drag Reducing Agents.
That will raise capacity to about 1,250,000 BPD.
If Eby getts with the dredging programme then that extra capacity can be realized.
If he is serious about laying another line in along the TMX route and dealing with the resulting harbour congestion then getting 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day to Asian, or European, or African or South American markets should not be a problem.

But we send lots of our oil to those markets in any event. We just pay the Americans a 10 to 20% handling fee, or commission if you prefer.

If the Americans got really snotty with us then they might take issue withour use of the Straits of Juan de Fuca which we traverse jointly.
Come to think of it, the Prince Rupert plan, requiring shipping by the contested Dixon Entrance could present a simiar challenge.
Both of those entrances are potentially under American guns.

A truly sovereign nation, with 500 miles of ocean front property available to it, would build a port at Bella Bella. 250 miles from the nearest Yank and direct access to the open ocean.

 

[MilEME09]

Come to think of it, the Prince Rupert plan, requiring shipping by the contested Dixon Entrance could present a simiar challenge.
Both of those entrances are potentially under American guns.

A truly sovereign nation, with 500 miles of ocean front property available to it, would build a port at Bella Bella. 250 miles from the nearest Yank and direct access to the open ocean.

I blame the British for giving that part of Alaska to the US instead of us. Reality is we will need to live with that security challenge unless we under take some kind of radical mega engineering project to put an oil terminal on the ocean side of Vancouver island.

 

[quadrapiper]

A truly sovereign nation, with 500 miles of ocean front property available to it, would build a port at Bella Bella. 250 miles from the nearest Yank and direct access to the open ocean.

Tanker port over on Cunningham, to avoid one more strait crossing?

 

[Kirkhill]

I blame the British for giving that part of Alaska to the US instead of us. Reality is we will need to live with that security challenge unless we under take some kind of radical mega engineering project to put an oil terminal on the ocean side of Vancouver island.

Yeah right. Go blame the Brits. You wouldn't have anything if it wasn't for the Brits. This entire line of history would be moot.

And no, you don't need to go to Vancouver Island. Bella Bella will suit just fine. You just have to relocate some bears. Or ignore them.


Kitimat and the channel out past the south of the Queen Charlottes is not a bad second.

 

[brihard]

True, but trying in Yuan if even temporarily to make a point to others, is proportionately less destructive than failing to substantively deal with foreign hybrid warfare being conducted against us now. FI registry, positive start, but actions against the UFWD and other related elements is wanting.

Dealing oil in Yuan firstly binds some of the purchasing power of our own companies to that currency, and secondly would be hugely provocative to the U.S. in a distinctly aggravated way that I don’t think we want.

If the Americans got really snotty with us then they might take issue withour use of the Straits of Juan de Fuca which we traverse jointly.

We can transit the Strait of Juan de Fuca entirely within our own territorial sea, even without having to resort to the right of innocent passage. There’s nothing for them to take issue with.

 

[Kirkhill]

Dealing oil in Yuan firstly binds some of the purchasing power of our own companies to that currency, and secondly would be hugely provocative to the U.S. in a distinctly aggravated way that I don’t think we want.




We can transit the Strait of Juan de Fuca entirely within our own territorial sea, even without having to resort to the right of innocent passage. There’s nothing for them to take issue with.

Unless they want to take issue.

Are we taking bets on predictability these days/

 

[daftandbarmy]

We can transit the Strait of Juan de Fuca Salish Sea entirely within our own territorial sea, even without having to resort to the right of innocent passage. There’s nothing for them to take issue with.

There, decolonized that FY

 

[brihard]

Unless they want to take issue.

Are we taking bets on predictability these days/

What you’re alluding to is literally a blockade of our ports. If things are at that point we’re well past hooped anyway.

 

[Kirkhill]

What you’re alluding to is literally a blockade of our ports. If things are at that point we’re well past hooped anyway.

Agreed. Why did we build the Trent-Severn and the Rideau canals in the 1830s? And for that matter, Fort Henry and Ottawa.

To keep commerce and communications out of range of American guns?

 

[Kirkhill]

1939 USSR 170.5 Million people
1939 Finland 3.7 Million people

Finland thwarted the USSR.

If we had to consider the US an active threat why would we be in worse circumstances than 1939 Finland.
As @Furniture sez elsewhere, it is all about choices.

 

[MilEME09]

Yeah right. Go blame the Brits. You wouldn't have anything if it wasn't for the Brits. This entire line of history would be moot.

And no, you don't need to go to Vancouver Island. Bella Bella will suit just fine. You just have to relocate some bears. Or ignore them.

View attachment 97566
Kitimat and the channel out past the south of the Queen Charlottes is not a bad second.

I think you missed the sarcasm in my first statement, if you are worried about America threatening shipping, just start escorting until international waters.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

1939 USSR 170.5 Million people
1939 Finland 3.7 Million people

Finland thwarted the USSR.

If we had to consider the US an active threat why would we be in worse circumstances than 1939 Finland.
As @Furniture sez elsewhere, it is all about choices. geography

But you know that.

 

[McG]

Maybe the whole how we harden Canada & the Canadian economy discussion can be had in a thread about Canada? The US abduction of Maduro has implications for Canada, but it's not about Canada and the mods had already attempted one thread split to get this back on track.