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2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

lenaitch said:
Maybe the US would take them over as State refineries (or the whole country, who knows). Trump as already said he wants Panama back.

Petro-Maga?
Trump Oil?
Oil of Melania?
A whole new meaning to Imperial Oil?
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Dude, you're being way to creative.

It's gonna be just "Trump Oil".
 
brihard said:
Anyone here more meteorologically inclined able to say how much about-to-be-Hurricane Melissa is going to affect the air and sea space in the AO over the next week? It’ll be gnarly for Jamaica, but I don’t know if it’ll be too far away to impact potential imminent operations in Venezuela?
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I'm a day late to the party, but unless a hurricane/typhoon is going to directly strike the target area, it will have little impact on capability.

The USN has MetOc centers for each fleet that provide updates to the ships, and a CSG has an embarked MetOc team to provide on-site support. Hurricane avoidance is pretty straightforward these days with the improved accuracy of models, and the ability to get satellite imagery updates every 15 minutes, 24/7. With satellite based radars, you can even measure wind speed in the storm based on the sea heights and speeds... Which is why so many records are being broken.
 
Furniture said:
I'm a day late to the party, but unless a hurricane/typhoon is going to directly strike the target area, it will have little impact on capability.

The USN has MetOc centers for each fleet that provide updates to the ships, and a CSG has an embarked MetOc team to provide on-site support. Hurricane avoidance is pretty straightforward these days with the improved accuracy of models, and the ability to get satellite imagery updates every 15 minutes, 24/7. With satellite based radars, you can even measure wind speed in the storm based on the sea heights and speeds... Which is why so many records are being broken.
Click to expand...

Going to be keeping a respectful distance for sure.

Hurricane Melissa forecast to become a rare Category 5 tonight, seek shelter now in Jamaica
 
Things may be starting. Some airspace has just been closed off the east coast of Puerto Rico for security reasons, and there’s also notification of ‘hot pit refuelling’ at the closest airport, which I gather means refuelling aircraft with engines running, and which may be an indicator of turning military aircraft around quickly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1984288310005772376

Maduro, meanwhile, is making some fast and desperate appeals to Russia for military aid.

While the USS Gerald Ford battlegroup is still a long ways out, I see no reason they’d need it in place before launching.
 
brihard said:
Things may be starting. Some airspace has just been closed off the east coast of Puerto Rico for security reasons, and there’s also notification of ‘hot pit refuelling’ at the closest airport, which I gather means refuelling aircraft with engines running, and which may be an indicator of turning military aircraft around quickly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1984288310005772376

Maduro, meanwhile, is making some fast and desperate appeals to Russia for military aid.

While the USS Gerald Ford battlegroup is still a long ways out, I see no reason they’d need it in place before launching.
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A sense a special military operation in the near future.
 
QV said:
Correct, as in no more two decade long wars. The occasional limited action to depose a tyrant, sure.
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There is absolutely no legitimate justification for a war of aggression against Venezuela. You don’t get to just invade countries because you don’t like their leadership. The U.S. would have no benevolent purpose for attacking Venezuela, it would purely be a self-serving act by the administration, and would be another very significant step down the path of authoritarianism.
 
brihard said:
There is absolutely no legitimate justification for a war of aggression against Venezuela. You don’t get to just invade countries because you don’t like their leadership. The U.S. would have no benevolent purpose for attacking Venezuela, it would purely be a self-serving act by the administration, and would be another very significant step down the path of authoritarianism.
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That significant step has been taken by many past administrations, and authoritarianism is still circling around looking for a place to land.
 
Brad Sallows said:
That significant step has been taken by many past administrations, and authoritarianism is still circling around looking for a place to land.
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Obviously other pst US administrations have done heinous and self-serving things in the past. Now that we’re agreed on that-

As I said there is no legitimate justification for a military assault on Venezuela. It would be a war crime. There’s no amount of your usual hand-wringing justification and minimization of the current administration’s excesses that changes that. The US appears poised to launch a war of aggression. Nobody should be playing apologist for that. Hopefully, against what appear increasingly long odds, they walk back from that.
 
Brad Sallows said:
That significant step has been taken by many past administrations, and authoritarianism is still circling around looking for a place to land.
Click to expand...
Hey, I'm not passing judgment on the choice to attack/invade Venezuela, not trying to say that this government (if they do attack) is somehow morally worse than any of the others who attacked other countries. Maybe even, I'm an ardent neo-con who hopes and dreams that the US goes around the world "exporting" their version of capitalist democracy by the most violent means possible. Who knows?

But, I'm not the one who ran on a platform of "no new wars".
 
brihard said:
Obviously other pst US administrations have done heinous and self-serving things in the past. Now that we’re agreed on that-

As I said there is no legitimate justification for a military assault on Venezuela. It would be a war crime. There’s no amount of your usual hand-wringing justification and minimization of the current administration’s excesses that changes that. The US appears poised to launch a war of aggression. Nobody should be playing apologist for that. Hopefully, against what appear increasingly long odds, they walk back from that.
Click to expand...
Nevertheless I wonder if the ICC would have the courage to issue an arrest warrant for Trump. He seems to have everyone cowering in fear of what he or his cult followers might do in retribution.
 
brihard said:
There is absolutely no legitimate justification for a war of aggression against Venezuela. You don’t get to just invade countries because you don’t like their leadership. The U.S. would have no benevolent purpose for attacking Venezuela, it would purely be a self-serving act by the administration, and would be another very significant step down the path of authoritarianism.
Click to expand...
Authoritarianism is domestic. Military adventurism and wars of conquest are not domestic.
The badge of tyrant might fit for one who is authoritarian at home and an imperialist conqueror abroad.
 
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