2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Colin Parkinson]

Any meaningful improvement in Venezuela's net oil exports will probably be a few years. Their infrastructure is shambolic. We do have some time.

The big change will be that rather than selling a bunch of it under the table to shadow fleets at probably a fairly steep discount, we'll probably simply see all of Venezuela's exports diverted to the open market but under control of US companies. Don't forget that Chevron already legally exports some Venezuelan oil under an arrangement between the two countries.

I fully expect no meaningful amount of that money will go back to the Venezuelans. Trump will make the most out of the purported claim to Venezuela's oil wealth to offset what was nationalized decades ago. I fully expect the US will also lay claim to an entitlement to the value of the profits they will argue they would have made since then too.

Almost all the oil revenue will have to go back into rebuilding the infrastructure, for at least a decade just to get it back to 2007 levels. That does mean more local legitimate jobs.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Almost all the oil revenue will have to go back into rebuilding the infrastructure, for at least a decade just to get it back to 2007 levels. That does mean more local legitimate jobs.

Think of all that US steel that will be bought….

 

[Eaglelord17]

Equalization is a formula based on the average national fiscal capacity to the capacity of the province. If ABs oil industry collapsed, that would drag down the average, and likely put AB far below average. Which in turn could turn Ontario and quebec into Have provinces and lead to AB receiving Equalization.

Yeah and AB would have to adopt a PST first which isn’t likely to happen. The system favours provinces with high tax rates but doesn’t compensate for how much services are provided.

Id rather not want to know if the reaction time from Dwyer hill is fast enough to secure the PM, and cabinet members from a US incursion.

Quicker than a random with a lever action?

 

[Altair]

Almost all the oil revenue will have to go back into rebuilding the infrastructure, for at least a decade just to get it back to 2007 levels. That does mean more local legitimate jobs.

or US contractors flying in and doing the work.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

So what happens if Trump’s puppet regime in Venezuela has no option to hold onto power but to resume violent repression of the civilian populace?

Define "civilian" Does that include key members of the PSUV or gangs that have been terrorizing the population? I have no doubt she want the PSUV stay an official party, but the US might(likely) force them to dissolve and become illegal organization in the country.

The incoming government would have to both sanction a large number of named individuals and also grant amnesty to many more. At best there is going to be bloodshed, how much depends on the balance of Justice, forgiveness and revenge they reach.

I don't see any of the neighbouring countries offering sanctuary to Chavez/Marduro loyalists intent on conducting a violence based insurgency. Without a safe haven such an insurgency will eventually fail.

 

[MilEME09]

Yeah and AB would have to adopt a PST first which isn’t likely to happen. The system favours provinces with high tax rates but doesn’t compensate for how much services are provided.

No, there is nothing in the formula or rules that says AB would have to adopt a PST to recieve equalization. Its based on the as is fiscal caoacity with resource revanue counted at 50%.

 

[markppcli]

Yeah and AB would have to adopt a PST first which isn’t likely to happen. The system favours provinces with high tax rates but doesn’t compensate for how much services are provided.

Quicker than a random with a lever action?

Tax rates don't factor into equalization

"A province's fiscal capacity is not based on its actual tax revenues, but on those it could raise with national average tax rates."

Equalization Program - Canada.ca

Overview of the federal government's transfer program for addressing fiscal disparities among provinces.

www.canada.ca

 

[YZT580]

If she was not indicted,why was Maduro's wife taken as well?

Trump doesn't want to appear as a home wrecker?

 

[Remius]

This aged like a fine milk given that it took Trump mere hours to say that he would be excluding Machado and power would transition to Maduro’s own illegitimate VP.

HT had it right. He should’ve kept quiet at least at first. Starting the new year with his first mistake.

 

[Remius]

We really need investment in education in this country on how that actually works…

 

[ModlrMike]

Is it time to reread NATO Article 5 yet?

 

[Altair]

Is it time to reread NATO Article 5 yet?

NATO doesn't even know what to do if Greece and Turkey come to blows, nevermind what to do if the USA goes rogue.

 

[Altair]

We really need investment in education in this country on how that actually works…

Education is a provincial jurisdiction and certain jurisdictions do better if people are less educated on that subject.

Makes for easier sloganeering

 

[Retired AF Guy]

In yesterdays issue (02 Jan) of the Bulwark, Mark Hertling [Lt. Gen. (Ret.)] penned this piece about the dangers of regime change and the consequences if those implementing the change are unprepared and don't realize what the risks entail, which in turn could embroil the United States in a long drawn out conflict.

Well worth the read.

What ‘Regime Change’ in Venezuela Would Really Mean

It’s not clear the administration has settled on a goal, much less considered the consequences.

www.thebulwark.com

About the author: Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) was commander of U.S. Army Europe from 2011 to 2012. He also commanded 1st Armored Division in Germany and Multinational Division-North during the surge in Iraq from 2007 to 2009.

 

[Altair]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stableand well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to theUnited States; we want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with usagainst narco-terrorists, cartels, and other transnational criminalorganizations; we want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreignincursion or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supplychains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategiclocations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” tothe Monroe Doctrine

The United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition ofour security and prosperity—a condition that allows us to assert ourselvesconfidently where and when we need to in the region. The terms of our alliances,and the terms upon which we provide any kind of aid, must be contingent onwinding down adversarial outside influence—from control of military installations,ports, and key infrastructure to the purchase of strategic assets broadly defined.

Well, gotta give it to them.

They called their shot.

 

[OldSolduer]

In yesterdays issue (02 Jan) of the Bulwark, Mark Hertling [Lt. Gen. (Ret.)] penned this piece about the dangers of regime change and the consequences if those implementing the change are unprepared and don't realize what the risks entail, which in turn could embroil the United States in a long drawn out conflict.

The Law of Unintended Consequences is knocking at the door....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

We really need investment in education in this country on how that actually works…

Geography might also be useful.....

 

[Brad Sallows]

Are we even 24hrs into this yet? Quite the speculation going on; from invading Canada to the US propping up the remnants of Muduros regime for oil profits!

US companies might go in and reclaim their former assets and get everything working properly again. They might take control of assets which were never theirs in the first place and get them working, too.

The US might be stupid enough to do that by importing a bunch of foreign workers to do all but the most basic jobs, and might be stupid enough to export all the profits.

But, if they avoid that stupidity, there will be comparisons with the Chinese who come to make deals with governments without removing dictators, bring in foreign workers (their own) to build things, and export much of the profit while holding their costs as "debt" to be paid by the locals.

If that happens, the utilitarian arithmetic is going to change.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

So what happens if Trump’s puppet regime in Venezuela has no option to hold onto power but to resume violent repression of the civilian populace?



She has already offered up compliance according to Trump. That will suffice for him for now.

Is a government run by María Corina Machado or Edmundo González Urrutia a puppet regime? Considering they were either barred from running or disenfranchised by the current regime.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Hmmm…

They spelled Delta wrong