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The difference being Trump is in charge. Not Melania or WH clerks. Quite unlike the in abstentia Biden regime.
2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict
- Thread starter brihard
- Start date
The difference being Trump is in charge. Not Melania or WH clerks. Quite unlike the in abstentia Biden regime.
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I didn't think he was much in charge during his first administration. All presidents delegate, but unlike any president before him and Biden, most stayed engaged. Trump and Biden could claim occasional engagement at best.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
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- Reaction score
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Feature not bug for Trump, in my opinion.
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You could excuse the first term I think. He wasn't a politican. He had to learn those ropes. And then one impeachment after another for almost the whole term. However, he's a quick learner. No such hesitation this time around.
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HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
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Only a matter of time until someone gets the idea to apply what Ukraine has been doing to Russia to further disincentive the Americans, and the Venezuelan oil infrastructure is already falling apart.
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Most Venezuelans aren't as committed to defending the Venezuelan regime as Ukrainians are to defending Ukraine.
So far the US has seized the guy who took power despite probably not being the election winner, leaving pretty much everyone and everything else in place, and made claims on Venezuelan oil that have informed people laughing due to the cost, time, and risk involved to make good on them. That's all. There might be more (ie. carrot and stick overtures to the government that have not been leaked yet), but for now it's a short list, made shorter if you strike out the improbable item.
- Reaction score
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You risk propping up the regime by giving a external enemy to boaster support to their cause.
Look at Canada, the Liberals were toast until Trump got in and it completely changed the narrative. Carney et al focused on the external threat, Pierre focused on domestic issues and lost because of it.
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Yes, nothing's perfect. Do nothing. Remove a leader. Invade a country.
- Reaction score
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I'll betcha it will look more investable with lots of US public money.This article is very informative and telling of the struggles that Trump faces in getting large amounts of oil out of VZ.
Trump seeks $100bn for Venezuela oil, but Exxon boss says country 'uninvestable'
Oil executives expressed caution, with one executive saying Venezuela had seized their assets twice.www.bbc.com
US President Donald Trump has asked for at least $100bn (£75bn) in oil industry spending for Venezuela, but received a lukewarm response at the White House as one executive warned the South American country was currently "un-investable".
But the oil bosses present expressed caution.
Exxon's chief executive Darren Woods said: "We have had our assets seized there twice and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen and what is currently the state."
"Today it's uninvestable."
"You're dealing with us directly. You're not dealing with Venezuela at all. We don't want you to deal with Venezuela," he said.
At roughly one million barrels per day, the country accounts for less than 1% of global supply.
Repsol, which currently boasts output of about 45,000 barrels per day, said it saw a path to triple its production in Venezuela over the next few years under the right conditions.
"They are being as polite as humanly possible, and being as supportive as they can, without committing actual dollars," said David Goldwyn, president of the energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies and former US state department special envoy for international energy affairs.
While smaller companies might be more eager to jump in and help boost Venezuela's oil production over the next year, he said those investments would likely hover in the $50m range - far from the "fantastical" $100bn figure that Trump has floated.
Rystad Energy estimates it would take $8bn to $9bn in new investments per year for production to triple by 2040.
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Maybe - the logistics are massive.
Employees? Where do they come from, inside the country or specialists from outside the country, like the US. Where do they live in the country? Where do they get food from, water, sanitation, protection, entertainment - a million little things - they’ll need huge amounts of new equipment, how does that get transported to the site? Is the existing ports/cranes reliable to do the job? Are the roads able to handle the loads after years of neglect.
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All good questions, but if it doesn't work out as he intended, Trump's ego would have trouble simply walking away saying 'well, that didn't go as planned'.
- Reaction score
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Yes agree. But something like this will take years to get up and running. Did you the article that I posted yesterday on this? For example Repsol said that it will take them 3-4yrs to go from 35,000 barrels/days to triple that number.
- Reaction score
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Not to mention the cost of security for every specialists sent over. Kidnapping was bad there before, if the US seizes ports and oil infrastructure, they are going to have to fix it and there will be a lot of bad people that have lost their income and want a new revenue stream.
- Reaction score
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It’s like listening to some Americans now saying that Cuba is next.
For the love of God, any sane American knows that the moment hey did something similar every single boat, plank of wood, air bladder, anything that floated would have a Cuban attached to it and they would be down to the beach trying to float to Florida. There would be tens and tens and tens of thousands of them. Florida would be overrun.
- Reaction score
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Losing Venezuelan oil, might be the last gasp of the Cuban regime as well, without Americans stepping a foot on their soil. As things get worse, tourism will continue to drop and that is another nail in the coffin.
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Fifth tanker intercepted. That leaves 11 more to be seized.
"After the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US Forces on 3 January 2026, at least 16 tankers fled Venezuelan ports as of 5 January in an attempt to evade the US quarantine by heading in different directions at the same time. They tried to avoid detection by transmitting false names and position data or turning off their AIS transmitters; 15 were under previous sanctions. A New York Times article cited sources who stated the ships did not act upon orders of acting president Delcy Rodríguez, but were controlled by sanctioned businesses and individuals close to Madur
il industry sources stated that the tankers were "contracted by the oil traders Alex Saab and Ramón Carretero" and that by coordinating their departure, the vessels could overwhelm the quarantine; Carretero was sanctioned by the US in December 2025."
apnews.com
I am guessing that the very public and extreme prosecution of the chase of the vessel off Ireland was "pour encourager les autres".
....
Cuban hit.
apnews.com
But so is China.
As green as China's aspirations are it still sucks up a lot of oil, about 11 million barrels a day, making it the world's largest importer. It is also the largest importer of coal and the largest consumer of coal. It consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined.
China isn't promoting green policies out of altruism. Green technologies give it more energy options. Green penalties hamstring its competitors' economies. Green prohibitions generate low cost fuels because most countries won't buy or use them.
....
So Russia invades Ukraine and interrupts fuel flow to Europe.
Europe discovers that their principles disappear when they are freezing and start burning anything that will burn.
Competition for fuels rises.
Prices for coal rises.
China's costs rise.
China becomes less competitive.
Other countries open up alternate fuel sources, Polish coal, German brown coal, North Sea gas and oil, making their economies more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump says burn it all, gas, oil, coal.
American energy becomes cheaper.
America becomes more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump takes Venezuela under control.
China loses Venezuelan oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Venezuelanos get a shot at democracy and the oil companies get a shot at recouping some losses)
Iran breaks out in revolt.
Bandar Abbas riots.
China loses Iranian oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq get another shot a Kurdistan in Iran and the rest of Iran gets a shot at democracy).
Trump and NATO start seizing sanctioned ships of the shadow fleet transporting oil.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently intelligence and sabotage operations are hampered globally)
Ukraine sinks Russian tankers in the Black Sea and the Med.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Russia loses oil revenues from China making it harder to prosecute the war with Ukraine).
....
In addition to losing income due to failing competitiveness, at what point does the choking of the fuel supply result in it getting cold in Inner Mongolia?
....
Trump's US.
Trump aims to make the US more competitive.
He aims to reduce costs.
He aims to make energy cheaper, including Canadian energy.
He aims to reduce the costs of defence.
He forces others to increase their defence budget.
(This has two effects - it decreases his costs and increases their costs. This makes them less competitive).
Trump aims to make everyone else less competitive.
He increases their defence burden, and reduces his own.
He imposes tariffs to favour American employers.
He forces everyone else to spend less money on social services to pay for defence, energy and his tariffs.
....
Making America Great Again while pissing off the rest of the world without starting WW3. But rearranging a lot of deck-chairs.
....
Not all the errors here are original work. Random thoughts and observations together with notions of people that seem to know stuff.
"After the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US Forces on 3 January 2026, at least 16 tankers fled Venezuelan ports as of 5 January in an attempt to evade the US quarantine by heading in different directions at the same time. They tried to avoid detection by transmitting false names and position data or turning off their AIS transmitters; 15 were under previous sanctions. A New York Times article cited sources who stated the ships did not act upon orders of acting president Delcy Rodríguez, but were controlled by sanctioned businesses and individuals close to Madur
il industry sources stated that the tankers were "contracted by the oil traders Alex Saab and Ramón Carretero" and that by coordinating their departure, the vessels could overwhelm the quarantine; Carretero was sanctioned by the US in December 2025."US intercepts fifth sanctioned tanker as it exerts control over Venezuelan oil distribution
The U.S. military says U.S. forces have boarded another oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea as the Trump administration continues to target sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela.
apnews.com
I am guessing that the very public and extreme prosecution of the chase of the vessel off Ireland was "pour encourager les autres".
....
Cuban hit.
A battered Cuba braces for aftershocks as US seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela surge
As U.S. seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela surge, so do concerns in Cuba about whether the island’s government and economy will survive.
apnews.com
But so is China.
As green as China's aspirations are it still sucks up a lot of oil, about 11 million barrels a day, making it the world's largest importer. It is also the largest importer of coal and the largest consumer of coal. It consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined.
China isn't promoting green policies out of altruism. Green technologies give it more energy options. Green penalties hamstring its competitors' economies. Green prohibitions generate low cost fuels because most countries won't buy or use them.
....
So Russia invades Ukraine and interrupts fuel flow to Europe.
Europe discovers that their principles disappear when they are freezing and start burning anything that will burn.
Competition for fuels rises.
Prices for coal rises.
China's costs rise.
China becomes less competitive.
Other countries open up alternate fuel sources, Polish coal, German brown coal, North Sea gas and oil, making their economies more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump says burn it all, gas, oil, coal.
American energy becomes cheaper.
America becomes more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump takes Venezuela under control.
China loses Venezuelan oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Venezuelanos get a shot at democracy and the oil companies get a shot at recouping some losses)
Iran breaks out in revolt.
Bandar Abbas riots.
China loses Iranian oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq get another shot a Kurdistan in Iran and the rest of Iran gets a shot at democracy).
Trump and NATO start seizing sanctioned ships of the shadow fleet transporting oil.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently intelligence and sabotage operations are hampered globally)
Ukraine sinks Russian tankers in the Black Sea and the Med.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Russia loses oil revenues from China making it harder to prosecute the war with Ukraine).
....
In addition to losing income due to failing competitiveness, at what point does the choking of the fuel supply result in it getting cold in Inner Mongolia?
....
Trump's US.
Trump aims to make the US more competitive.
He aims to reduce costs.
He aims to make energy cheaper, including Canadian energy.
He aims to reduce the costs of defence.
He forces others to increase their defence budget.
(This has two effects - it decreases his costs and increases their costs. This makes them less competitive).
Trump aims to make everyone else less competitive.
He increases their defence burden, and reduces his own.
He imposes tariffs to favour American employers.
He forces everyone else to spend less money on social services to pay for defence, energy and his tariffs.
....
Making America Great Again while pissing off the rest of the world without starting WW3. But rearranging a lot of deck-chairs.
....
Not all the errors here are original work. Random thoughts and observations together with notions of people that seem to know stuff.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
- Reaction score
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Glass half full
“God created war so that Americans would learn geography.”
― Mark Twain
