China’s gonna have a bit of an oil predicament if the Iranian regime falls. Big source of black market oil for them.Fifth tanker intercepted. That leaves 11 more to be seized.
"After the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US Forces on 3 January 2026, at least 16 tankers fled Venezuelan ports as of 5 January in an attempt to evade the US quarantine by heading in different directions at the same time. They tried to avoid detection by transmitting false names and position data or turning off their AIS transmitters; 15 were under previous sanctions. A New York Times article cited sources who stated the ships did not act upon orders of acting president Delcy Rodríguez, but were controlled by sanctioned businesses and individuals close to Maduril industry sources stated that the tankers were "contracted by the oil traders Alex Saab and Ramón Carretero" and that by coordinating their departure, the vessels could overwhelm the quarantine; Carretero was sanctioned by the US in December 2025."
US intercepts fifth sanctioned tanker as it exerts control over Venezuelan oil distribution
The U.S. military says U.S. forces have boarded another oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea as the Trump administration continues to target sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela.apnews.com
I am guessing that the very public and extreme prosecution of the chase of the vessel off Ireland was "pour encourager les autres".
....
Cuban hit.
A battered Cuba braces for aftershocks as US seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela surge
As U.S. seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela surge, so do concerns in Cuba about whether the island’s government and economy will survive.
But so is China.
As green as China's aspirations are it still sucks up a lot of oil, about 11 million barrels a day, making it the world's largest importer. It is also the largest importer of coal and the largest consumer of coal. It consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined.
China isn't promoting green policies out of altruism. Green technologies give it more energy options. Green penalties hamstring its competitors' economies. Green prohibitions generate low cost fuels because most countries won't buy or use them.
....
So Russia invades Ukraine and interrupts fuel flow to Europe.
Europe discovers that their principles disappear when they are freezing and start burning anything that will burn.
Competition for fuels rises.
Prices for coal rises.
China's costs rise.
China becomes less competitive.
Other countries open up alternate fuel sources, Polish coal, German brown coal, North Sea gas and oil, making their economies more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump says burn it all, gas, oil, coal.
American energy becomes cheaper.
America becomes more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump takes Venezuela under control.
China loses Venezuelan oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Venezuelanos get a shot at democracy and the oil companies get a shot at recouping some losses)
Iran breaks out in revolt.
Bandar Abbas riots.
China loses Iranian oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq get another shot a Kurdistan in Iran and the rest of Iran gets a shot at democracy).
Trump and NATO start seizing sanctioned ships of the shadow fleet transporting oil.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently intelligence and sabotage operations are hampered globally)
Ukraine sinks Russian tankers in the Black Sea and the Med.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Russia loses oil revenues from China making it harder to prosecute the war with Ukraine).
....
In addition to losing income due to failing competitiveness, at what point does the choking of the fuel supply result in it getting cold in Inner Mongolia?
....
Trump's US.
Trump aims to make the US more competitive.
He aims to reduce costs.
He aims to make energy cheaper, including Canadian energy.
He aims to reduce the costs of defence.
He forces others to increase their defence budget.
(This has two effects - it decreases his costs and increases their costs. This makes them less competitive).
Trump aims to make everyone else less competitive.
He increases their defence burden, and reduces his own.
He imposes tariffs to favour American employers.
He forces everyone else to spend less money on social services to pay for defence, energy and his tariffs.
....
Making America Great Again while pissing off the rest of the world without starting WW3. But rearranging a lot of deck-chairs.
....
Not all the errors here are original work. Random thoughts and observations together with notions of people that seem to know stuff.
2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict
- Thread starter brihard
- Start date
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China says to Carney, we’ll fund the new oil pipeline in northern BC, during his upcoming visit.Fifth tanker intercepted. That leaves 11 more to be seized.
"After the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US Forces on 3 January 2026, at least 16 tankers fled Venezuelan ports as of 5 January in an attempt to evade the US quarantine by heading in different directions at the same time. They tried to avoid detection by transmitting false names and position data or turning off their AIS transmitters; 15 were under previous sanctions. A New York Times article cited sources who stated the ships did not act upon orders of acting president Delcy Rodríguez, but were controlled by sanctioned businesses and individuals close to Madur
US intercepts fifth sanctioned tanker as it exerts control over Venezuelan oil distribution
The U.S. military says U.S. forces have boarded another oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea as the Trump administration continues to target sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela.
I am guessing that the very public and extreme prosecution of the chase of the vessel off Ireland was "pour encourager les autres".
....
Cuban hit.
A battered Cuba braces for aftershocks as US seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela surge
As U.S. seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela surge, so do concerns in Cuba about whether the island’s government and economy will survive.
But so is China.
As green as China's aspirations are it still sucks up a lot of oil, about 11 million barrels a day, making it the world's largest importer. It is also the largest importer of coal and the largest consumer of coal. It consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined.
China isn't promoting green policies out of altruism. Green technologies give it more energy options. Green penalties hamstring its competitors' economies. Green prohibitions generate low cost fuels because most countries won't buy or use them.
....
So Russia invades Ukraine and interrupts fuel flow to Europe.
Europe discovers that their principles disappear when they are freezing and start burning anything that will burn.
Competition for fuels rises.
Prices for coal rises.
China's costs rise.
China becomes less competitive.
Other countries open up alternate fuel sources, Polish coal, German brown coal, North Sea gas and oil, making their economies more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump says burn it all, gas, oil, coal.
American energy becomes cheaper.
America becomes more competitive.
China becomes less competitive.
Trump takes Venezuela under control.
China loses Venezuelan oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Venezuelanos get a shot at democracy and the oil companies get a shot at recouping some losses)
Iran breaks out in revolt.
Bandar Abbas riots.
China loses Iranian oil.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq get another shot a Kurdistan in Iran and the rest of Iran gets a shot at democracy).
Trump and NATO start seizing sanctioned ships of the shadow fleet transporting oil.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently intelligence and sabotage operations are hampered globally)
Ukraine sinks Russian tankers in the Black Sea and the Med.
China loses oil supply.
China becomes less competitive.
(Concurrently Russia loses oil revenues from China making it harder to prosecute the war with Ukraine).
....
In addition to losing income due to failing competitiveness, at what point does the choking of the fuel supply result in it getting cold in Inner Mongolia?
....
Trump's US.
Trump aims to make the US more competitive.
He aims to reduce costs.
He aims to make energy cheaper, including Canadian energy.
He aims to reduce the costs of defence.
He forces others to increase their defence budget.
(This has two effects - it decreases his costs and increases their costs. This makes them less competitive).
Trump aims to make everyone else less competitive.
He increases their defence burden, and reduces his own.
He imposes tariffs to favour American employers.
He forces everyone else to spend less money on social services to pay for defence, energy and his tariffs.
....
Making America Great Again while pissing off the rest of the world without starting WW3. But rearranging a lot of deck-chairs.
....
Not all the errors here are original work. Random thoughts and observations together with notions of people that seem to know stuff.
- Reaction score
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Trump sez to Carney: how are those free trade negotiations coming along.
Dice still shaking in the cup.
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Yeah. I think we should just take the hit and say " Thanks, but no thanks"
In fact, we should be doing more to curtail their participation and investment in Canada and its industries.
Nothing good comes from these guys, without huge problems on the back end
They are NOT our friends and they don't play fair.
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Yup, flood us with fentanyl and thenwatch us twist ourselves into knots financially and socially trying to fix our zombies....
Why not?
They have invested billions into our economy already.
But we sell resources, we need customers for those resources. The US has proven to be less then desirable as a customer for many years. Soft wood lumber, oil. NG iron ore and the list goes on.
Many of those oil protests have been funded by US interests. One has to wonder who is a better customer?
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theres not much point in building a pipeline to the west coast if we are not going to sell to China, is there?
Japan might buy some oil from us.
Although it is not the best route Europe might ship that way.
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China's not sanctioned. An Iran thats aligned with international norms would happily sell at market rates to them, which will likely raise their cost of doing business.
Maxman1
Army.ca Veteran
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And I keep hearing from people who vacation in Cuba that the tourism experience is getting worse every year.
Halifax Tar
Army.ca Legend
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The Battle of Anchorage and Power Armor keeps wandering through my head...
I don't want to set the world on fire.........
OldSolduer
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
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I have relatives in Cuba right now. I'll have to ask them how it went and what it was like.
Personally I refuse to go to Cuba because of its government.
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Or South Korea or Indonesia or The Philippines or even India or Australia - lots of other actors in the area.
Oh absolutely they’d be free to exchange at spot prices. That will still potentially cost China billions a year in lost discounts. ~1.8 MBPD, ~$10/bbl discount… It adds up. That’s enough to maybe piss them off a bit.
I said ‘infrastructure’. If China wants to buy our crude oil at spot, cool, happy to sell it to them. They nor their companies should not be involved in building or operating Canadian pipelines, or telecommunications infrastructure, or energy utilities or what have you. Fine to have them as a customer, to the extent that they will pay the agreed upon number of dollars per barrel, bushel, or ton. Even there we should be cautious to keep our exports diversified so no one customers buys too much and creates an excessive dependency- we’re seeing that play out with the U.S., and China has already played games with products like our canola or pork.
But China is too insidious a threat to our economic security and integrity to trust them with any of the skeletal structure of that economy. Their state leverages corporate access for state purposes in ways that go well beyond what we’re willing to accept in our democracy,
There are lots of potential customers. We don't gain a thing by trading with China. Our trade deficit with them proves that.
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I've never gone but I've always wanted to go.
I want to see Havana as is under Communism so that when it fell I'd have a point of reference if I was able to go back after Communism falling. It's like when I was living/working in Prague in 94-96. I wish that I could have been there in say '88, so that I'd be able to compare '88 to '94-96. I went back in 2019 (as well as '99) and the change in everything from '99 to 2019 was pretty indescribable.
Nonsense. We gain the same thing with them as we do with any customer - the revenue of selling the good or service. Yea there are other potential customers- if we can offer a better price than their current suppliers. We would lose out by doing so; if China’s best customers on the market for particular goods and that doesn’t otherwise bring overriding national and economic security concerns, not selling simple things to them would be silly. On the other side of the trade balance, forcing a market distortion to buy elsewhere would mean Canadian consumers and businesses would be getting worse prices for the things they need to buy. It wouldn’t help our overall global trade balance.
Looking at bilateral trade balances as if they’re inherently meaningful is economically silly bordering on illiterate. Bilateral trade deficits with less developed countries is part and parcel of being a rich consumer society that wants the best available prices for goods and services. Because of our much higher incomes and standards of living, we simply cannot produce most of these things at a price point that will compete with lower cost overseas producers.
Canada’s overall trade balance tends to fluctuate between a net surplus and a net deficit, reflective of our situation as both a rich consumer economy but that also exports a lot of re materials, finished goods, and services. Current trade tensions with the U.S. are distorting this of course.
Trump is unhappy that the CEO of Exxon apparently called Venezuela “uninvestable” when he summoned oil execs to meet last week regarding the future of Venezuela’s oil industry. In consequence, he may exclude Exxon from this investment opportunity.
www.reuters.com
Trump says he might keep Exxon out of Venezuela after CEO called it 'uninvestable'
Exxon CEO Darren Woods told Trump that Venezuela would need to change its laws.
www.reuters.com
