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2026 US-Denmark Tensions/End of NATO

He, and by extension the Americn people, are going to have to learn the hard way on this one.
They won't "learn". They'll escalate. Everyone claiming Trump and his followers are irrational should act as if he believes it.

I'm sure if everyone behaves as if it's an economic version of the downward spiral of 1914 which no-one was intelligent enough to arrest, the books will make interesting reading, though.
 

"A majority, 58%, calls the first year of Trump’s term a failure."

But the other 42%.

45% was enough to get elected, twice.

Assume a range of 36 to 45 or 40 +/- 4% and you have the stable range of support in the US for Trump and his policies.

According to Real Clear Politics

Presidential Approval - 42% Approve vs 55% Disapprove
Right Track - 38% Approve vs 56% Disapprove
Republicans vs Democrats - 42% Republicans vs 47% Democrats

And everybody knows what they are getting with Trump and the Republicans.
Nobody knows which way the Democrats are likely to go - Activist or Centrist?

....

I don't think we should plan on any major course corrections in the the next little while. Trump is calling the tune for the world for a whiles yet.
 

"A majority, 58%, calls the first year of Trump’s term a failure."

But the other 42%.

45% was enough to get elected, twice.

Assume a range of 36 to 45 or 40 +/- 4% and you have the stable range of support in the US for Trump and his policies.

According to Real Clear Politics

Presidential Approval - 42% Approve vs 55% Disapprove
Right Track - 38% Approve vs 56% Disapprove
Republicans vs Democrats - 42% Republicans vs 47% Democrats

And everybody knows what they are getting with Trump and the Republicans.
Nobody knows which way the Democrats are likely to go - Activist or Centrist?

....

I don't think we should plan on any major course corrections in the the next little while. Trump is calling the tune for the world for a whiles yet.
You're in the Trump wants to annex parts of Denmark thread. The general musing's on Trump's performance (including discussion already on that article) are over here: Trump administration 2024-2028
 
You're in the Trump wants to annex parts of Denmark thread. The general musing's on Trump's performance (including discussion already on that article) are over here: Trump administration 2024-2028

Understood.

The musings on this thread are about what Trump is doing and may do and positing courses of action. Those courses of action should be predicated on understanding that Trump is not Trump alone. He has a firm base.
 
If memory serves, I believe several of the countries Trump is intending to impose new sanctions on are countries that signed ‘deals’ with the U.S. following the mass sanctions last spring.

Trump continues to show everyone what an agreement with his America is actually worth.
 
If memory serves, I believe several of the countries Trump is intending to impose new sanctions on are countries that signed ‘deals’ with the U.S. following the mass sanctions last spring.

Trump continues to show everyone what an agreement with his America is actually worth.
All of them signed a new agreement with him. UK their own and the others under the EU.
 
Understood.

The musings on this thread are about what Trump is doing and may do and positing courses of action. Those courses of action should be predicated on understanding that Trump is not Trump alone. He has a firm base.
The article you linked does not support your conclusion. 58% of US voters called his first year a failure, but the other 42% did not call it a success. 19% to 21% gave positive endorsements on the various metrics shown in the article. He has a crumbling base, and the US starting to feel a little more consequence for his global belligerence may be what it takes for someone to put things back on the rails.
 
All of them signed a new agreement with him. UK their own and the others under the EU.
Whoops. Glad we didn’t rush into one ourselves.

U.S. treasury bills are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the United States. I feel like the risk premium on that “full faith and credit” may begin to climb a bit.
 
The article you linked does not support your conclusion. 58% of US voters called his first year a failure, but the other 42% did not call it a success. 19% to 21% gave positive endorsements on the various metrics shown in the article. He has a crumbling base, and the US starting to feel a little more consequence for his global belligerence may be what it takes for someone to put things back on the rails.

It may.
 
Whoops. Glad we didn’t rush into one ourselves.

U.S. treasury bills are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the United States. I feel like the risk premium on that “full faith and credit” may begin to climb a bit.
A bit of a spike on 10yr US Treasury’s this week. But I’m of the belief it’s because the belief that the US Supreme Court rules on the Tariffs on Tuesday and that’s creating uncertainty.
 

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Another thought: up to this point Trump had a potential off-ramp where he could claim this was some 4D chess to get NATO to take Arctic defence seriously. He just wiped his ass with that in front of everybody. He discarded the available fig leaf he could have hidden his tantrum behind.
 
Treaties negotiated by the US President and rejected by the US Senate where a 2/3 supermajority is mandated by the U.S. Constitution's Treaty Clause (Article II, Section 2, Clause 2)

Other presidents have sought to change the world, notably Woodrow Wilson, only to be stopped by the US Senate.

 
Another thought: up to this point Trump had a potential off-ramp where he could claim this was some 4D chess to get NATO to take Arctic defence seriously. He just wiped his ass with that in front of everybody. He discarded the available fig leaf he could have hidden his tantrum behind.

5D chess. He knows Tuesday won't go in his favour an will use it as one giant off-ramp, these new announced tariffs are just to duct tape this Greenland affair to that ruling.

Memory holing the entire slate of 2025.

Trump however doesn't realize Trumps plan and will forget to not shut up about it after, leaving him back at square one.
 
It's definitely not wise to trust a government that tells you it will do one thing then does sometbing else.
 
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