2026 US-Denmark Tensions/End of NATO

[PrairieFella]

They don't make Churchills any more, they make Starmers and Mertzs.

Johnson might have made a good Churchill...

I hope we learn, I really do, but if we were learning, where are our 4-6 million FPVs a year? Why are we still thinking about driving tanks up to the frontline like they will survive waves of drones going after them?

Ukraine and Russia are giving the entire world a crash course in how war is going to be fought and we are sitting around twiddling our thumbs.

Ukraine beat up a NATO force in a exercise and it wasn't even close and all we get is a collective shrug.

I don't get it.

Might I ask what your occupation in the CAF was? Not trying to be glib, but you seem to be misunderstanding how our tanks fight and what we as the RCAC have been taking from this war. I think that youre partly expanding Russian tactics onto our maneouvre forces.

 

[Altair]

Might I ask what your occupation in the CAF was?

No.

Not trying to be glib, but you seem to be misunderstanding how our tanks fight and what we as the RCAC have been taking from this war.

Are Canadian tankers much more prepared than British tankers?

Ukraine’s Drone Warfare Shows Two Battalions Could Be Wiped Out in a Day in NATO Drills

NATO's recent exercises in Estonia showed Western forces unprepared for drone warfare, exposing critical weaknesses in operational tactics.

united24media.com

Russia’s war against Ukraine has already reshaped global military thinking, but the WSJ reported that a major NATO drill last May revealed how unprepared Western forces remain for high-intensity combat dominated by drones and real-time battlefield intelligence, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal on February 12.

The exercise, called Hedgehog 2025, brought together more than 16,000 troops from 12 NATO countries alongside Ukrainian drone specialists, including personnel temporarily drawn from the front. The scenario simulated a “contested and congested” battlefield saturated with unmanned systems.

The overall outcome for NATO forces was “horrible,” he added, saying the opposing side was “able to eliminate two battalions in a day,” leaving units effectively unable to continue fighting.

“The aim was really to create friction, the stress for units, and the cognitive overload as soon as possible,” said Lt. Col. Arbo Probal of the Estonian Defence Forces, describing the intent to test how quickly soldiers could adapt under pressure.

According to the WSJ, one simulated offensive involving thousands of troops—including a British brigade and an Estonian division—quickly revealed a critical flaw. Advancing forces failed to account for the extreme visibility created by drones.

The NATO battle group was “just walking around, not using any kind of disguise, parking tents and armored vehicles,” one participant recalled. “It was all destroyed.”

Ukrainian teams relied on Delta, a battlefield-management system that gathers real-time intelligence, applies artificial intelligence to analyze data, identifies targets, and coordinates strikes across units. The system enables a rapid kill chain—spotting, sharing, and striking targets within minutes.

A small Ukrainian-led adversary group of roughly ten personnel carried out a counterattack that mock-destroyed 17 armored vehicles and conducted 30 simulated strikes in about half a day, the WSJ reported.

Another opposing unit led by Estonian unmanned-systems coordinator Aivar Hanniotti deployed more than 30 drones across an area smaller than four square miles. Even with fewer drones than typically seen on Ukraine’s real front lines, concealment proved nearly impossible.

or American tankers?

Ukrainian Drones ‘Wiped Out’ US Armored Brigade in Germany’s War Games

The American brigade was tasked with assaulting positions reinforced by Ukrainian troops. But its heavily armored personnel carriers quickly became easy targets.

www.kyivpost.com

Ukrainian drone operators repeatedly “destroyed” a 3,500-strong US armored brigade during military exercises in Germany, exposing how quickly battlefield tactics have changed in the age of drones.

The clashes took place during the Combined Resolve exercises in April and May, where US troops faced Ukrainian forces from the 412th “Nemesis” Regiment of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The American brigade was tasked with assaulting positions reinforced by Ukrainian troops. But its heavy armored personnel carriers quickly became easy targets.

The vehicles kicked up clouds of dust, making them highly visible to Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Bomber and kamikaze drones then moved in.

The Ukrainian drones “destroyed” the American vehicles so quickly that White Force exercise officials had to repeatedly “regenerate” them and send them back into the fight so the exercise could continue, according to a US official familiar with the results.

During the exercise, a vehicle was considered destroyed when a drone hovered above it or flew close enough to strike.

The US brigade was not completely defenseless. The Texas-based unit had standard electronic warfare and counter-drone systems, according to a US Army representative.

So the Brits and Yanks are being eviscerated by Ukrainian drone teams, and you're here trying to tell me that Canadians will somehow do much better?

Get out of here with that.

I think that youre partly expanding Russian tactics onto our maneouvre forces.

No, I'm applying British and American tactics onto our maneouvre forces. And unless you mean to come here and tell me that Canadian tankers are leagues ahead of the Brits and the Yanks, hell, even the Ukrainians who have stopped using western supplied armour, then I think you may be the one out to lunch here.

 

[PrairieFella]

No.

Are Canadian tankers much more prepared than British tankers?

Ukraine’s Drone Warfare Shows Two Battalions Could Be Wiped Out in a Day in NATO Drills

NATO's recent exercises in Estonia showed Western forces unprepared for drone warfare, exposing critical weaknesses in operational tactics.

united24media.com

or American tankers?

Ukrainian Drones ‘Wiped Out’ US Armored Brigade in Germany’s War Games

The American brigade was tasked with assaulting positions reinforced by Ukrainian troops. But its heavily armored personnel carriers quickly became easy targets.

www.kyivpost.com

So the Brits and Yanks are being eviscerated by Ukrainian drone teams, and you're here trying to tell me that Canadians will somehow do much better?

Get out of here with that.

Actually - we did pretty good according to the Ukrainians...you can cut the hostility man, its bad for you to be constantly confrontational.

 

[Altair]

Actually - we did pretty according to the Ukrainians...

Better than the Brits and the Yanks to the point of not being destroyed by Ukrainian drone forces to the point of being combat ineffective?

 

[PrairieFella]

Better than the Brits and the Yanks to the point of not being destroyed by Ukrainian drone forces to the point of being combat ineffective?

Im not going to elaborate any further other than they said we did pretty good.

 

[Altair]

Im not going to elaborate any further other than they said we did pretty good.

Okay, on a whole, given the stuff you cannot talk about, I will summerize it this way,

The Brits got destroyed versus Ukrainian drone teams.

The Americans got destroyed against Ukrainian drone teams.

This is not me projecting Russian tactics on Western forces, this is me projecting Western tactics on western forces.

The Ukrainians were not even using the full amount of anti tank drones that are seen on a common Ukrainian front line and still Western tankers were facing severe losses.

And if Canadian tankers did particularly well, kudos to you, but we have 70-80 tanks. We last a week.

Nobody is ready for what is coming. If the Ukrainians cannot make use of western armor, and they have been able to make use of nearly everything we send them, I don't have high hopes for NATO tankers.

 

[KevinB]

Okay, on a whole, given the stuff you cannot talk about, I will summerize it this way,

The Brits got destroyed versus Ukrainian drone teams.

The Americans got destroyed against Ukrainian drone teams.

Just so everyone is aware “destroyed” is a rather questionable term.
The exercise parameters of a vehicle being destroyed where to me exceptionally lopsided to the UAS.

This is not me projecting Russian tactics on Western forces, this is me projecting Western tactics on western forces.

The Ukrainians were not even using the full amount of anti tank drones that are seen on a common Ukrainian front line and still Western tankers were facing severe losses.

Part of the issue is when one looks at a Bde type exercise one is not able to bring some of the Divisional, Corps and higher level assets to bear.
Things NATO has that no other nations on earth have.

- Now don’t get me wrong, I think that there needs to be a lot more C-UAS systems, and integrated down at least to the Platoon level.

And if Canadian tankers did particularly well, kudos to you, but we have 70-80 tanks. We last a week.

Canadians generally have much better fieldcraft - sticking to track plans, camouflage etc. Probably from understanding that firepower alone its going to work for a CA entity.

Nobody is ready for what is coming. If the Ukrainians cannot make use of western armor, and they have been able to make use of nearly everything we send them, I don't have high hopes for NATO tankers.

Honestly if you look at the AT-UAS like the introduction of ATGM’s, it is simply another iteration of rock, paper, scissors.
We spend billions of dollars on C-RAM systems during GWOT - and apparently some seem to have forgotten those lessons.

The fact that all that C-RAM stuff wasn’t sent to Ukraine years ago is criminal, the fact that it was not then provided into the Gulf, makes one wonder if local losses was a desired result.

Most new AFV's are using APS system with the GAU-19, EO/IO and Acoustic sensors provide a detection dome that allow the APS to engage incoming threats.

The LM/UAS being used to strike tanks and other heavily armored vehicles are not little quadcopter systems -- they are primarily things like the Geran-5, which is basically a small cruise missile with a 90kg warhead.
The smaller FPVSUAS are primarily Anti-Personnel, and the FPVSUAS with AT warheads have a very low success rate.

 

[Altair]

Just so everyone is aware “destroyed” is a rather questionable term.
The exercise parameters of a vehicle being destroyed where to me exceptionally lopsided to the UAS.

The Ukrainians were also severely under manned compared to what a real front line armored force would be facing.

Part of the issue is when one looks at a Bde type exercise one is not able to bring some of the Divisional, Corps and higher level assets to bear.
Things NATO has that no other nations on earth have.

Yet, all things being equal, this is what, the 3rd or 4th exercise were under strength Ukrainian drone units have rendered NATO tankers ineffective?

- Now don’t get me wrong, I think that there needs to be a lot more C-UAS systems, and integrated down at least to the Platoon level.


Canadians generally have much better fieldcraft - sticking to track plans, camouflage etc. Probably from understanding that firepower alone its going to work for a CA entity.

Honestly if you look at the AT-UAS like the introduction of ATGM’s, it is simply another iteration of rock, paper, scissors.
We spend billions of dollars on C-RAM systems during GWOT - and apparently some seem to have forgotten those lessons.

The fact that all that C-RAM stuff wasn’t sent to Ukraine years ago is criminal, the fact that it was not then provided into the Gulf, makes one wonder if local losses was a desired result.

Most new AFV's are using APS system with the GAU-19, EO/IO and Acoustic sensors provide a detection dome that allow the APS to engage incoming threats.

The LM/UAS being used to strike tanks and other heavily armored vehicles are not little quadcopter systems -- they are primarily things like the Geran-5, which is basically a small cruise missile with a 90kg warhead.
The smaller FPVSUAS are primarily Anti-Personnel, and the FPVSUAS with AT warheads have a very low success rate.

All this is avoiding the fact that you don't need a huge success rate. Tanks are being swarmed with 10-15 drones per tank. And once a mobility kill is made, its more or less game over.

The saturation of these drones has been shown to be causing the death of armored formations operating in the open in the Ukraine war, and so far not a single NATO exercise versus the Ukrainians has filled me with any hope that we have figured out how to combat this.

 

[KevinB]

The Ukrainians were also severely under manned compared to what a real front line armored force would be facing.

Again you are missing the fact that we do not do lone Bde operations - there are assets above.

Yet, all things being equal, this is what, the 3rd or 4th exercise were under strength Ukrainian drone units have rendered NATO tankers ineffective?

The issue is that just like a Section/Squad do not assault a Section/Squad, nor do you start assaulting until one has achieved fire superiority, this is not a realistic look at what would occur. The Bde doesn’t exist on it's own -- and it is a fallacy to try to interpolate anything without higher level assets being available.

All this is avoiding the fact that you don't need a huge success rate. Tanks are being swarmed with 10-15 drones per tank. And once a mobility kill is made, its more or less game over.

Lets says that most of those FPV systems have a 5% PMK (probability mobility kit) - you need a lot of them to affect a Armored Bde.
Lets say 66 vehicles from a Bde to make it Combat Ineffective - so you need 1,320 under roughly current Ukrainian conditions.

Now think about all of a sudden Blue Force has access to Red launch info and can start landing hits on the launch facilities and CC nodes.
The various collection methods available to paint a real time collaborative view of the battlefield do exist.
Blue Air and Fires exist beyond the Bde, as well a Air Defense.

The saturation of these drones has been shown to be causing the death of armored formations operating in the open in the Ukraine war,

There have been a lot of additional reasons for this, not just specific to UAS.

and so far not a single NATO exercise versus the Ukrainians has filled me with any hope that we have figured out how to combat this.

Part of the reason a bunch of exercise data is not OS.

 

[Altair]

Again you are missing the fact that we do not do lone Bde operations - there are assets above.

So you're assuming battlespace dominance in peer on peer fight?

The issue is that just like a Section/Squad do not assault a Section/Squad, nor do you start assaulting until one has achieved fire superiority, this is not a realistic look at what would occur. The Bde doesn’t exist on it's own -- and it is a fallacy to try to interpolate anything without higher level assets being available.

So you're saying fire superiority eliminates the drone threat?

Lets says that most of those FPV systems have a 5% PMK (probability mobility kit) - you need a lot of them to affect a Armored Bde.

Thats a ridiculously low rate. As of a year ago I was seeing anywhere from 20-40 percent PMK.

Lets say 66 vehicles from a Bde to make it Combat Ineffective - so you need 1,320 under roughly current Ukrainian conditions.

Based on a ridiculously low PMK, sure.

Now think about all of a sudden Blue Force has access to Red launch info and can start landing hits on the launch facilities and CC nodes.
The various collection methods available to paint a real time collaborative view of the battlefield do exist.
Blue Air and Fires exist beyond the Bde, as well a Air Defense.

Are we talking peer on peer here or versus some ragtag militia?

There have been a lot of additional reasons for this, not just specific to UAS.

Part of the reason a bunch of exercise data is not OS.

Yeah, I'm certain the good news is all being obfuscated.

 

[KevinB]

So you're assuming battlespace dominance in peer on peer fight?

I forgot your the guy who wants Gripens so you can fight a Peer-Peer fight.

Yeah, I'm certain the good news is all being obfuscated.

Talking with you is fairly pointless as either you are being willingly obtuse, or you really just do not understand what occurs in a LSCO.