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27 Sep 2026 - British counterterrorism op near RAF Fairford

Diesel bandits.
I’ve seen this speculation- fuel thieves in the wrongest possible place at the wrongest possible time. It would jive with the fake fuel delivery branding, and what may have been empty fuel cans pulled from the vans. That would be objectively hilarious, had it not also potentially burned a major investigation.

Probably still hilarious even at that.
 
I’ve seen this speculation- fuel thieves in the wrongest possible place at the wrongest possible time. It would jive with the fake fuel delivery branding, and what may have been empty fuel cans pulled from the vans. That would be objectively hilarious, had it not also potentially burned a major investigation.

Probably still hilarious even at that.
Or a couple of nefarious US airmen running a racket by selling fuel taken from the base to these guys.
 
A proper cock up - this is the most likely explanation of course ;)

Covert MI5 vs. overt police: Why did the UK release the US air base terrorism suspects?​


"Five suspects believed to have been planning an attack on a U.S. Airforce base in the United Kingdom have been released on bail. The announcement of the men’s release on Monday has sparked raised eyebrows on both sides of the Atlantic.

The arrest of the five British men of Middle Eastern or South Asian descent was dramatic. It came late on Saturday night following a call from a member of the public who reported a group of men in masks behaving suspiciously near RAF Fairford. While technically a British Royal Air Force base, RAF Fairford is U.S.-operated and home to heavy bomber aircraft. Some of these aircraft have been involved in the war against Iran.
Responding to the emergency call, armed police (most U.K. police are unarmed) detained the men and searched the three vans they had been driving. The men were subsequently arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses. They were then further arrested on suspicion of terrorism offenses. Numerous homes near the arrest site were evacuated over fears related to the apparent explosives.
Under U.K. law, terrorism suspects can normally be detained for up to 14 days without being charged. It has surprised many, then, that the men have been released barely 24 hours after their initial arrest. But this most likely theory for why this occurred is an inadvertent collision between covert and overt security operations targeting the men. It seems likely that the plotters were under surveillance by Britain’s MI5 domestic intelligence service and Counter-Terrorism police at all times on Saturday. But that a panicked call by a member of the public then led the local police force near RAF Fairford (Gloucestershire Police) to intervene, unaware of the MI5 operation.
That intervention appears to have occurred before MI5/Counter-Terrorism police had gathered sufficient evidence for optimal prosecutions. The suspects have now been released under intensive counterterrorism supervision by the authorities. This quick-release decision allows for the men’s possible 13-day (14-1 day already served) detention at a future point if more evidence is accumulated.
The best suggestion of a collision of covert versus overt security operations comes from comments by President Donald Trump and U.K. Defense Secretary Wes Streeting. And by the fact that RAF Fairford was put on higher alert two weeks ago."
 
A proper cock up - this is the most likely explanation of course ;)

Covert MI5 vs. overt police: Why did the UK release the US air base terrorism suspects?​


"Five suspects believed to have been planning an attack on a U.S. Airforce base in the United Kingdom have been released on bail. The announcement of the men’s release on Monday has sparked raised eyebrows on both sides of the Atlantic.

The arrest of the five British men of Middle Eastern or South Asian descent was dramatic. It came late on Saturday night following a call from a member of the public who reported a group of men in masks behaving suspiciously near RAF Fairford. While technically a British Royal Air Force base, RAF Fairford is U.S.-operated and home to heavy bomber aircraft. Some of these aircraft have been involved in the war against Iran.
Responding to the emergency call, armed police (most U.K. police are unarmed) detained the men and searched the three vans they had been driving. The men were subsequently arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses. They were then further arrested on suspicion of terrorism offenses. Numerous homes near the arrest site were evacuated over fears related to the apparent explosives.
Under U.K. law, terrorism suspects can normally be detained for up to 14 days without being charged. It has surprised many, then, that the men have been released barely 24 hours after their initial arrest. But this most likely theory for why this occurred is an inadvertent collision between covert and overt security operations targeting the men. It seems likely that the plotters were under surveillance by Britain’s MI5 domestic intelligence service and Counter-Terrorism police at all times on Saturday. But that a panicked call by a member of the public then led the local police force near RAF Fairford (Gloucestershire Police) to intervene, unaware of the MI5 operation.
That intervention appears to have occurred before MI5/Counter-Terrorism police had gathered sufficient evidence for optimal prosecutions. The suspects have now been released under intensive counterterrorism supervision by the authorities. This quick-release decision allows for the men’s possible 13-day (14-1 day already served) detention at a future point if more evidence is accumulated.
The best suggestion of a collision of covert versus overt security operations comes from comments by President Donald Trump and U.K. Defense Secretary Wes Streeting. And by the fact that RAF Fairford was put on higher alert two weeks ago."
So the left hand didn’t know what the right hand was doing.
Nice.
 
Which, when dealing with intelligence driven operations is not uncommon. Local police not being aware of national policing / national counterintelligence operations is actually a feature, not a bug.
A secret is only secure when only one person knows it.
 
Which, when dealing with intelligence driven operations is not uncommon. Local police not being aware of national policing / national counterintelligence operations is actually a feature, not a bug.
100% this. That’s not to say there’s not careful liaison and limited sharing as needed with local police, but as a general rule of thumb there comes a time to share, and even then usually under particular caveats.
 
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