A Deeply Fractured US

[Blackadder1916]

Mind blowing that both the House and Senate are still too close to call.

It’s 49-49 in the hundred seat senate right now. Good chance that Nevada will break for the Democrats tonight. Georgia’s seat will likely head to a runoff, but if Dems take Nevada, it won’t matter much anyway.

The House, incredibly, is getting closer and closer to a near even split. I think Republicans will probably take it by a seat or two, but that’s still a very far cry from what was expected to be a pretty bad showing for the Dems.

And the Senate goes to . . .

Cortez Masto wins in Nevada, securing Democratic control of Senate

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is projected to defeat Republican Adam Laxalt, putting an end to a nail-biter of a race and ensuring Democrats will maintain their Senate majority. NBC News and…

thehill.com

Cortez Masto wins in Nevada, securing Democratic control of Senate​

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is projected to defeat Republican Adam Laxalt, putting an end to a nail-biter of a race and ensuring Democrats will maintain their Senate majority.

NBC News and CBS News both called the race around 9:18 pm. ET.

 

[brihard]

And the Senate goes to . . .

Cortez Masto wins in Nevada, securing Democratic control of Senate

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is projected to defeat Republican Adam Laxalt, putting an end to a nail-biter of a race and ensuring Democrats will maintain their Senate majority. NBC News and…

thehill.com

Wow.

With Georgia still open for the taking, Dems could make it to 51. That would give them control over senate committees, rather than having to broker power sharing deals. If Warnock takes Walker in the runoff, they’ll have that.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Wow.

With Georgia still open for the taking, Dems could make it to 51. That would give them control over senate committees, rather than having to broker power sharing deals. If Warnock takes Walker in the runoff, they’ll have that.

Republicans be like...

 

[Kat Stevens]

Republicans be like...

If they were at all cagey, they would be more like

, a few years of the Dems and their slightly left of Trotsky ideas left to run rampant should sober up the populace nicely.

 

[dimsum]

If they were at all cagey, they would be more like

, a few years of the Dems and their slightly left of Trotsky ideas left to run rampant should sober up the populace nicely.

The Dems, when compared to most countries, are not that left wing.

This is a few years old but I don't think the infographic is too far off now.

Opinion | What Happened to America’s Political Center of Gravity? (Published 2019)

The Republican Party is farther right than U.K.I.P. and France’s National Rally, according to an analysis of their platforms.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Kat Stevens]

The Dems, when compared to most countries, are not that left wing.

This is a few years old but I don't think the infographic is too far off now.

Opinion | What Happened to America’s Political Center of Gravity? (Published 2019)

The Republican Party is farther right than U.K.I.P. and France’s National Rally, according to an analysis of their platforms.

www.nytimes.com

Humour still not your strong suit, I see, Major Correction.

 

[brihard]

If they were at all cagey, they would be more like

, a few years of the Dems and their slightly left of Trotsky ideas left to run rampant should sober up the populace nicely.

Wasn’t that the theory coming into this election off a supermajority?

 

[Kat Stevens]

Curses, you have all outsmartied me, time to withdraw to my lair and lick my wounds.

 

[dimsum]

Humour still not your strong suit, I see, Major Correction.

At least I'm not Captain Obvious anymore!

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Wow.

With Georgia still open for the taking, Dems could make it to 51. That would give them control over senate committees, rather than having to broker power sharing deals. If Warnock takes Walker in the runoff, they’ll have that.

Listening to Julie Mason (Sirius XM) Friday morning and she mentioned that previously, Republicans' in Georgia didn't care who was running, they were only concerned about controlling the Senate. Now that the Dems have control of the Senate, those Republican voters might just say the heck with it and stay home.

 

[dapaterson]

Who knew that for Tiffany's wedding, "Something Blue" would be Nevada?

 

[brihard]

Listening to Julie Mason (Sirius XM) Friday morning and she mentioned that previously, Republicans' in Georgia didn't care who was running, they were only concerned about controlling the Senate. Now that the Dems have control of the Senate, those Republican voters might just say the heck with it and stay home.

It’s pretty apparent, based on how many votes Walker got, that Republicans in Georgia generally still don’t care who’s running. I don’t know if there’s a limit to how many times you can threaten to murder a current or former romantic partner and still be a viable candidate for senate; if there is such a limit it needs to be lower.

 

[Weinie]

It’s pretty apparent, based on how many votes Walker got, that Republicans in Georgia generally still don’t care who’s running. I don’t know if there’s a limit to how many times you can threaten to murder a current or former romantic partner and still be a viable candidate for senate; if there is such a limit it needs to be lower.

Picky picky.

 

[Halifax Tar]

So, about that red wave lol

 

[Brad Sallows]

There is a silver lining for the cagey. Parties only learn and make course changes when defeated, and it often takes 2 or 3 cycles (the first is often a "voters just weren't listening" round). Republicans seem to be preparing to have the fight over Trump now instead of the middle of the 2024 primaries. Democrats will continue doing what they have been doing.

Whether or not someone thinks Republicans are further right than UKIP or NR is irrelevant. What matters is where Republicans (and Democrats) are relative to Americans. The Pew Research I've linked (repeatedly) before shows that the "political centre of gravity" dissolved because both the Democratic and Republican frames of reference moved and their respective distributions flattened, with the Democratic median changing much more than the Republican one. I maintain that simply by taking a common sense look at the culture that Republicans are in aggregate at least a little bit left of where they were during the Republican (or any earlier) era.

Part of what's happening is sorting. A thought experiment: if a single measure of progressive (left) and conservative (right) attitudes existed, we could plot it. State medians would be scattered along the axis. For example, I'd expect to find CA and NY left of centre while TX and FL would be to the right. Whenever someone migrates between states and that person lies between the two state medians, both state medians shift (a very little bit) in the same direction. For example, someone right of the CA median and left of the TX median moves from CA to TX. Both states become a bit more progressive. But for CA that movement is toward an extremity and for TX it is towards the centre. Evidence suggests there is migration out of CA and NY in particular, and into TX and FL in particular. Implications of that are left as an exercise for the reader. And I suspect that mirror migration ("red" to "blue") is less likely because major cities tend to be "blue" - instead of escaping a state, a person can escape to a city within a state to find a more progressive culture.

 

[mariomike]

It was reported that in the last 100 years, there have only been three previous instances of the president's party gaining ( or losing no ) Senate seats and losing fewer than ten House seats in the president's first midterm.

At the state level, this will be the first time since 1934 that the president's party had a net gain of governorships in a president's first midterm.

 

[brihard]

So, about that red wave lol

Turned out to just be a little bit of light spotting.

 

[brihard]

There is a silver lining for the cagey. Parties only learn and make course changes when defeated, and it often takes 2 or 3 cycles (the first is often a "voters just weren't listening" round). Republicans seem to be preparing to have the fight over Trump now instead of the middle of the 2024 primaries. Democrats will continue doing what they have been doing.

Whether or not someone thinks Republicans are further right than UKIP or NR is irrelevant. What matters is where Republicans (and Democrats) are relative to Americans. The Pew Research I've linked (repeatedly) before shows that the "political centre of gravity" dissolved because both the Democratic and Republican frames of reference moved and their respective distributions flattened, with the Democratic median changing much more than the Republican one. I maintain that simply by taking a common sense look at the culture that Republicans are in aggregate at least a little bit left of where they were during the Republican (or any earlier) era.

Part of what's happening is sorting. A thought experiment: if a single measure of progressive (left) and conservative (right) attitudes existed, we could plot it. State medians would be scattered along the axis. For example, I'd expect to find CA and NY left of centre while TX and FL would be to the right. Whenever someone migrates between states and that person lies between the two state medians, both state medians shift (a very little bit) in the same direction. For example, someone right of the CA median and left of the TX median moves from CA to TX. Both states become a bit more progressive. But for CA that movement is toward an extremity and for TX it is towards the centre. Evidence suggests there is migration out of CA and NY in particular, and into TX and FL in particular. Implications of that are left as an exercise for the reader. And I suspect that mirror migration ("red" to "blue") is less likely because major cities tend to be "blue" - instead of escaping a state, a person can escape to a city within a state to find a more progressive culture.

Well put.

Republicans now have two years to put their house in order and to present a viable, electable party. The big variable will be whether Trump accepts that the party is moving/has moved on, that his political brand is in irrevocable decline, and doesn’t try to jam things up. I suspect he’ll have his hands full in court, but he could still be quite a distraction from relatively rational conservative politics.

The democrats have two years to figure out how to keep up momentum. Biden has achieved a lot legislatively; in a few more days we’ll get a sense of how likely that is to continue (I.e., the House). The party, and Biden himself, will have to decide if they want to use the next two years to build and push for a second Biden term, or to try to successfully pas the baton.

 

[RangerRay]

It was interesting to note that while the Trumpy candidates underperformed Team Normal in “purple” Republican states, left-wing Democratic candidates underperformed centrist Democrats in “purple” Democratic states. I Wisconsin, the Republicans had a beatable unpopular candidate in Ron Johnson. The Democrats nominated a far-left “defund the police” activist who was a Republican caricature of what a Democrat is. Ron Johnson ended up handily beating him, while the rest of the Democratic field for state office, who were more centrist, handily beat their Republican opponents.

The lesson is: don’t run crazy in purple states! Or run candidates who will win, not who gives party activists in another state the warm-and-fuzzies.

 

[brihard]

It was interesting to note that while the Trumpy candidates underperformed Team Normal in “purple” Republican states, left-wing Democratic candidates underperformed centrist Democrats in “purple” Democratic states. I Wisconsin, the Republicans had a beatable unpopular candidate in Ron Johnson. The Democrats nominated a far-left “defund the police” activist who was a Republican caricature of what a Democrat is. Ron Johnson ended up handily beating him, while the rest of the Democratic field for state office, who were more centrist, handily beat their Republican opponents.

The lesson is: don’t run crazy in purple states! Or run candidates who will win, not who gives party activists in another state the warm-and-fuzzies.

Candidate quality matters. Most voters are reasonably normal people with reasonably normal views, even if there can be a surprisingly narrow and surprisingly fierce partisan break based on which side of a given issue you lean to.