A Deeply Fractured US

[Colin Parkinson]

The Democrats are in the last stages of what is both an ideological scrap and intergenerational scrap (ie. establishment faction and more progressive faction, both of which line up approximately along generational lines). Fairly soon I expect control to tip over to the younger, more urgently progressive faction. To some it will look like a sudden leftward lurch, because there is a built-in time step (the four year presidential election cycle). Some of the people Democrats need to form a stronger centrist faction are still fighting the lost cause to reassert control over the Republican party (eg. the ex-neocons who think they can burn down the Republican party and rebuild it to suit themselves), but get them talking about foreign affairs and it takes them about 30 seconds to spin up over the necessity to remain mired in conflict abroad, which most people in the US are shot of.

So younger leadership is coming, probably in 2024.

Old? I give you old

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Democrats are in the last stages of what is both an ideological scrap and intergenerational scrap (ie. establishment faction and more progressive faction, both of which line up approximately along generational lines). Fairly soon I expect control to tip over to the younger, more urgently progressive faction. To some it will look like a sudden leftward lurch, because there is a built-in time step (the four year presidential election cycle). Some of the people Democrats need to form a stronger centrist faction are still fighting the lost cause to reassert control over the Republican party (eg. the ex-neocons who think they can burn down the Republican party and rebuild it to suit themselves), but get them talking about foreign affairs and it takes them about 30 seconds to spin up over the necessity to remain mired in conflict abroad, which most people in the US are shot of.

So younger leadership is coming, probably in 2024.

I think (guess only) that the GOP is also divided, perhaps equally deeply, between those ~ socially moderate, fiscal conservatives ~ who wish to return to the Eisenhower/Reagan base, and those who want to court the emerging "harder" right minority.

 

[brihard]

I think (guess only) that the GOP is also divided, perhaps equally deeply, between those ~ socially moderate, fiscal conservatives ~ who wish to return to the Eisenhower/Reagan base, and those who want to court the emerging "harder" right minority.

And “establishment” vs Trump loyalists. Liz Cheney’s situation is a useful microcosm to see some of the dynamic there. Pence is also getting dragged into it kicking in scream as a result of some of the reporting late this week. I think the GOP’s rift is becoming a chasm. The next primaries are going to be something to behold.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And “establishment” vs Trump loyalists. Liz Cheney’s situation is a useful microcosm to see some of the dynamic there. Pence is also getting dragged into it kicking in scream as a result of some of the reporting late this week. I think the GOP’s rift is becoming a chasm. The next primaries are going to be something to behold.

I would not be even a tiny bit surprised to see the 2024 US presidential election fought between to two women who are both "non-white:"

 

[Blackadder1916]

I would not be even a tiny bit surprised to see the 2024 US presidential election fought between to two women who are both "non-white:"

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Battle of the beiges?

 

[brihard]

I would not be even a tiny bit surprised to see the 2024 US presidential election fought between to two women who are both "non-white:"

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Hayley would be quite an interesting choice. She’s more ‘mainstream’ Republican... She has come out swinging against Trump pretty hard on a few occasions. That would cause her trouble in the primaries.

 

[Altair]

I would not be even a tiny bit surprised to see the 2024 US presidential election fought between to two women who are both "non-white:"

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Governor DeSantis of Florida seems the most likely to carry the Trump banner and thus the most likely to get all of trumpets supporters on his side

 

[Brad Sallows]

The most significant extant Republican split is along the line between patricians and plebians. Many of the former who refuse to tolerate plebian/populist control of the party have already cast themselves (some in effect, some in letter) out of the party. Republicans are not suffering dissension as severely as Democrats. Republicans did well (2020 election results) even with the outcasts trying to tear down their old party. Democrats are in trouble and haven't even had to deal with that kind of breach yet.

Harris is not likeable and is incapable of making herself so; her chances of success are less than Hillary Clinton's (Harris has accumulated nowhere near the same kind of power). My guess is the Democrats will work very hard to find someone else in 2024.

DeSantis is, for now, the strongest Republican contender. (The strongest Republican contender is whoever is strongest among Trump voters without being unacceptable to conservative snobs.) The people who wish to keep passing Trump supporters under the harrow are politically self-terminating. Politicians should know that trying to rub peoples' noses in their mistakes is not a way to win voters, but there they are. I assume their rage at being displaced exceeds their good sense.

 

[Altair]

The most significant extant Republican split is along the line between patricians and plebians. Many of the former who refuse to tolerate plebian/populist control of the party have already cast themselves (some in effect, some in letter) out of the party. Republicans are not suffering dissension as severely as Democrats. Republicans did well (2020 election results) even with the outcasts trying to tear down their old party. Democrats are in trouble and haven't even had to deal with that kind of breach yet.

Harris is not likeable and is incapable of making herself so; her chances of success are less than Hillary Clinton's (Harris has accumulated nowhere near the same kind of power). My guess is the Democrats will work very hard to find someone else in 2024.

DeSantis is, for now, the strongest Republican contender. (The strongest Republican contender is whoever is strongest among Trump voters without being unacceptable to conservative snobs.) The people who wish to keep passing Trump supporters under the harrow are politically self-terminating. Politicians should know that trying to rub peoples' noses in their mistakes is not a way to win voters, but there they are. I assume their rage at being displaced exceeds their good sense.

We are less than a year into Bidens term.

It's hard to judge what happens between now and late 2022, early 2023 that will set the groundwork for 2024.

Nobody saw covid 19 happening back in 2016 being one of the keys in derailing Trumps reelection chances.

 

[RangerRay]

Hayley would be quite an interesting choice. She’s more ‘mainstream’ Republican... She has come out swinging against Trump pretty hard on a few occasions. That would cause her trouble in the primaries.

If you don’t count all the times she goes grovelling back to Trump after each time she shows the smallest sign of independent thought…

 

[brihard]

If you don’t count all the times she goes grovelling back to Trump after each time she shows the smallest sign of independent thought…

I don't think that's a fair characterization at all. Particularly in the wake of the Jan 6th insurrection, she has been pretty clear, when asked, that there was a big difference between Trump's policies when he was president versus his efforts to push "the big lie" after the election. While I'm definitely uncomfortable with some of the olive branches she has extended to him, you portray them as far more groveling than they have been. I think she's trying to walk a careful balance here. Not sure that sitting on this particular fence will work out though...

 

[RangerRay]

I don't think that's a fair characterization at all. Particularly in the wake of the Jan 6th insurrection, she has been pretty clear, when asked, that there was a big difference between Trump's policies when he was president versus his efforts to push "the big lie" after the election. While I'm definitely uncomfortable with some of the olive branches she has extended to him, you portray them as far more groveling than they have been. I think she's trying to walk a careful balance here. Not sure that sitting on this particular fence will work out though...

I don’t think it is unfair at all. Any time she has been critical of Trump, she has walked it back and begs for an invitation to Orange Versailles in Florida to kiss the pinky ring. Now she says Trump was the real victim of the insurrection.

There is no fence-sitting in MAGA-world. You are either 100% with the Orange God-King at all times or you are a RINO cuck and cast into outer darkness.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/01/is-there-anyone-more-pathetic-than-nikki-haley/

 

[Brad Sallows]

We are less than a year into Bidens term.

Yes, and already people on his own side are worried about his abilities and worried about the tales of dissatisfaction from Harris's staff. The senate is 50/50 and the house nearly so; Democrats can't shake being attached to "defund the police", dysfunctional immigration policy, rising consumer prices, and a quixotic quest to re-do a deal with Iran in spite of how most Americans feel about Iran. All less than a year in.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I have no worries about the GOP 'chasms.' Until I see people like Cheney getting thousands to show up for their rallies, like Trump does, I see no chasm. Especially when the left still thinks of him as so much of a threat, that they are spending lots of money and influence trying to destroy him still. They are afraid he's going to run again. They are even trying to enlist people like Cheney to enable them to beat Trump. The Grand Old Party is in decline and the rest are taking leaps and bounds to embrace the New Republicans. There just isn't enough of the old guard, McConnell, Cheney, Romney, etc to withstand the onslaught. In fact, I'll be extremely surprised if many of the old guard even gets re-elected, if there is a Republican running against them in the run up to the primaries. Trump remains the head of the party and I can see him staying there as long as he wants. Just my feelings on the subject.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The possibility exists of a new party forming of centralists as each party veers to the outer edges.

 

[Kilted]

The possibility exists of a new party forming of centralists as each party veers to the outer edges.

And then the prospect of minority governments in both houses at the same time. I'm not sure that the US system is very well suited for minority governments.

 

[Altair]

Yes, and already people on his own side are worried about his abilities and worried about the tales of dissatisfaction from Harris's staff. The senate is 50/50 and the house nearly so; Democrats can't shake being attached to "defund the police", dysfunctional immigration policy, rising consumer prices, and a quixotic quest to re-do a deal with Iran in spite of how most Americans feel about Iran. All less than a year in.

And yet his approval ratings are pretty nice and the government is working.

Stimulus money is going out, the economy is rebounding, no major crisis to date.

Provide good government and the rest of what you're talking about is just noise.

While I'm sure Biden and the democrats are not your cup of tea, it's far too early to read the tea leaves regarding 2024.

Who would have thought in 2019 that Trudeau would be on the cusp of a majority government in 2021, not even 2 years later?

Cool your jets.

 

[Altair]

And then the prospect of minority governments in both houses at the same time. I'm not sure that the US system is very well suited for minority governments.

It was set up for compromise initially, this current hyper partisan no give nonsense is what is breaking the system.

 

[Altair]

The possibility exists of a new party forming of centralists as each party veers to the outer edges.

I wish.

But the two main parties have set up a system where it is near impossible to get into debates, to win at the state level, to have any influence.

Ross Perot won 19 percent of the vote and didn't get a single elector.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The system isn't broken. It works as designed. It takes more than a narrow majority to effect major change.