A Deeply Fractured US

[Remius]

I think that this is political nitroglycerine and needs to be handled with the greatest care.

I suspect that the warrant is legally and procedurally very sound. I cannot imagine it have been approved without a lot of soul searching.

I also suspect that the law enforcement/investigative folks may be using a small, eminently provable issue - improperly held documents (someone compared it to arresting Trump for overdue library books ) - in order to find evidence of a bigger thing, maybe something related to 6 Jan or to tax evasion, or, or, or ...

If there is no criminal indictment and, therefore, no conviction then I think Trump becomes a victim, even a martyr and his chances of being returned to office in 2024 are very, very good. That's the Democrats (and some Republicans) worst nightmare. But no President has ever been hauled up in front of a criminal court. Who can imagine any former President in handcuffs and an orange jumpsuit?

In my opinion, the political aim can only be to tarnish Trump in some highly public way with something - and it will have to be a really big something - that will turn off his very large and loyal following and make it practically impossible for him to do well in 2024.

IF that happens then my guess is:

The Democrats nominate someone who can win - not Sleepy Joe, maybe Harris, maybe someone else;​

​

The Republicans nominate a MAGA candidate - maybe Haley; and​

​

Trump runs as an independent.​

​

The desired outcome - for America, in my opinion - is that Trump finishes a distant third and, at age 78, retires, probably gracelessly.

Donald Trump has a large and still loyal following. They are, by and large, good, decent, honest, hard working people who are convinced that America undervalues and disregards them. Whether that's true or not is irrelevant; what matters, politically, is that they believe it and they believe that Donald Trump speaks for them. They need to see something that says that Donald Trump is NOT their man; they need to be persuaded that he does NOT care about them or about the country they love. The political outcome of all this needs to be something that changes the Trump narrative - something that makes him unacceptable to most of his current good, decent, honest, hard working followers.

Harris isn’t electable in my book.
Haley is also not going to be able to be nominated. The party is too divided. My running guess is DeSantis. Trump supporters want someone like Trump. DeSantis is similar yet different. Not my cup of tea, like Trump is nit my cup,of tea, but he’s smarter or at least communicates better. He would be a bigger concern if I was a Democrat.

Some see a civil war. i see an increase in Dometsic terrorism and attempted insurrections . It would be ideological and politically led.

 

[brihard]

Donald Trump has a large and still loyal following. They are, by and large, good, decent, honest, hard working people who are convinced that America undervalues and disregards them. Whether that's true or not is irrelevant; what matters, politically, is that they believe it and they believe that Donald Trump speaks for them. They need to see something that says that Donald Trump is NOT their man; they need to be persuaded that he does NOT care about them or about the country they love. The political outcome of all this needs to be something that changes the Trump narrative - something that makes him unacceptable to most of his current good, decent, honest, hard working followers.

I don’t think that’s possible at this point. There’s a… almost a mythology around him in the eyes of many. For years a large cohort of Americans have really invested themselves in support of him to the point of hero worship, and many people won’t stand to see their heroes tarnished or torn down. Certainly they won’t be swayed by anything ‘white collar’. He’s been cheered on by his base for flouting rules; alleged tax fraud? He’s just beating ‘the system’- and he’s spent enough time railing against ‘the system’. He faces potentially serious legal jeopardy for election fraud in various forms, but he preempted that already by planting a narrative that the election already was stolen- from him (and, by extension from his supporters). He has successfully turned his political opposition into literally ‘the enemy’ in the eyes of many.

Even if evidence emerged to see Trump prosecuted for some other crime that did really generate revulsion among many of his base, the immediate backlash would be that it was fabricated, planted, cops lied, etc. We’re seeing that already on something as clear cut as a simple search warrant investigating something we already literally know he to some greater or lesser extent did. The same loud rejection of investigative and judicial processes will happen for anything he might be investigated for.

That’s not to say the political tides can’t and won’t turn against him to the extent that he runs in 2024 and simply loses… but he already ran and simply lost, and we see what a debacle that turned into. An honest loss is something he and his base and his movement reject and yet still leverage.

The individual himself is merely a convenient focal point for a frighteningly large and very ugly sentiment in America. It so happened that someone with just the right mix of high profile, money, crassness and bombast came along at just the right time to catalyze that. Even if he makes a political exit (and I agree, it’ll probably redefine ‘graceless’), the movement will pass the baton to someone else- I agree with @Remius that DeSantis appears to be a likely front runner.

Trump catalyzed and continues to catalyze existing pressures and political tensions, but he doesn’t really create them, and the reaction is now much more self-sustaining. Tomorrow he could announce his retirement from public life and take the cloth in a monastery somewhere, and most of the same frightening stuff would keep happening.

This is the political reality that any investigation into potential crimes committed by him or by those in his orbit needs to contend with. Investigators and prosecutors will simply never be left alone to quietly do their jobs.

 

[IKnowNothing]

In my opinion, the political aim can only be to tarnish Trump in some highly public way with something - and it will have to be a really big something - that will turn off his very large and loyal following and make it practically impossible for him to do well in 2024.



Donald Trump has a large and still loyal following. They are, by and large, good, decent, honest, hard working people who are convinced that America undervalues and disregards them. Whether that's true or not is irrelevant; what matters, politically, is that they believe it and they believe that Donald Trump speaks for them. They need to see something that says that Donald Trump is NOT their man; they need to be persuaded that he does NOT care about them or about the country they love. The political outcome of all this needs to be something that changes the Trump narrative - something that makes him unacceptable to most of his current good, decent, honest, hard working followers.

But really, is there any such thing that will change people's minds?
-he was deep in bed with Epstein
-he blatantly used the Presidency to enrich himself, diverting his and other government stays to Trump properties, including foreign lobbyists
-he installed his wholly unqualified daughter and son in law to high level positions, which they used to personally enrich themselves
-he withheld aid to a foreign country to strong arm them into doing his political dirty work
-he withheld aid to states based on political alignment of their governor
-he's the epitome of an establishment, silverspoon insider
-he teargassed an aid station to make way for a blasphemous photo op
-he's punctuated his political life with nonsensical word salad press conferences and tweets reminiscent of a petulant 12 year old

None of it matters. That he's a viable political entity defies all reason, but he is. What else (excepting something that legally bars him from office) is actually going to break through and resonate?

Say what you want about his policy, but by his own words and actions, as a man, he's is the antitheses of a principled, ethical, conservative statesman. I fully understand Americans that feel that attachment, that have been sucked into the polarization and trapped by the cult of personality. Conservative Canadian's looking from the outside in that don't see him for what he is though? Boggles my mind.

 

[Good2Golf]

I fully understand Americans that feel that attachment, that have been sucked into the polarization and trapped by the cult of personality.

That's not at all to say that a significant proportion of Canadians don't have their own Cult of Personality going on with an individual than many others despise...so none of us (I believe) are arrogant enough to believe that there isn't at least some basis of understanding of why a not insignificant block of American's feel supportive of Trump the way they do.

 

[QV]

I think that this is political nitroglycerine and needs to be handled with the greatest care.

I suspect that the warrant is legally and procedurally very sound. I cannot imagine it have been approved without a lot of soul searching.

I also suspect that the law enforcement/investigative folks may be using a small, eminently provable issue - improperly held documents (someone compared it to arresting Trump for overdue library books ) - in order to find evidence of a bigger thing, maybe something related to 6 Jan or to tax evasion, or, or, or ...

If there is no criminal indictment and, therefore, no conviction then I think Trump becomes a victim, even a martyr and his chances of being returned to office in 2024 are very, very good. That's the Democrats (and some Republicans) worst nightmare. But no President has ever been hauled up in front of a criminal court. Who can imagine any former President in handcuffs and an orange jumpsuit?

In my opinion, the political aim can only be to tarnish Trump in some highly public way with something - and it will have to be a really big something - that will turn off his very large and loyal following and make it practically impossible for him to do well in 2024.

IF that happens then my guess is:

The Democrats nominate someone who can win - not Sleepy Joe, maybe Harris, maybe someone else;​

​

The Republicans nominate a MAGA candidate - maybe Haley; and​

​

Trump runs as an independent.​

​

The desired outcome - for America, in my opinion - is that Trump finishes a distant third and, at age 78, retires, probably gracelessly.

Donald Trump has a large and still loyal following. They are, by and large, good, decent, honest, hard working people who are convinced that America undervalues and disregards them. Whether that's true or not is irrelevant; what matters, politically, is that they believe it and they believe that Donald Trump speaks for them. They need to see something that says that Donald Trump is NOT their man; they need to be persuaded that he does NOT care about them or about the country they love. The political outcome of all this needs to be something that changes the Trump narrative - something that makes him unacceptable to most of his current good, decent, honest, hard working followers.

I think you're right in a lot of ways here. About the part I highlighted in red above, if that is what happened it could galvanize even independents who do not want abuses of the justice system used in such a manner. People would see it as bad faith and an abuse of power, used to eliminate political opponents which validates Trump's position on "the deep state". If there is no smoking gun, too many people will want to see the wrecking ball that he would be as POTUS on the system that acts in a disgraceful manner like that.

They better produce something several orders of magnitude above possessing presidential archives to change peoples views on this.

They should just beat him fair and square, but I suspect they realize that would be too difficult and don't have good odds.

 

[QV]

But really, is there any such thing that will change people's minds?
-he was deep in bed with Epstein
-he blatantly used the Presidency to enrich himself, diverting his and other government stays to Trump properties, including foreign lobbyists
-he installed his wholly unqualified daughter and son in law to high level positions, which they used to personally enrich themselves
-he withheld aid to a foreign country to strong arm them into doing his political dirty work
-he withheld aid to states based on political alignment of their governor
-he's the epitome of an establishment, silverspoon insider
-he teargassed an aid station to make way for a blasphemous photo op
-he's punctuated his political life with nonsensical word salad press conferences and tweets reminiscent of a petulant 12 year old

None of it matters. That he's a viable political entity defies all reason, but he is. What else (excepting something that legally bars him from office) is actually going to break through and resonate?

Say what you want about his policy, but by his own words and actions, as a man, he's is the antitheses of a principled, ethical, conservative statesman. I fully understand Americans that feel that attachment, that have been sucked into the polarization and trapped by the cult of personality. Conservative Canadian's looking from the outside in that don't see him for what he is though? Boggles my mind.

If much of this were true, you'd have a point. But it's not.

Like Russia collusion, drinking bleach, nazis are fine people, etc... there are so many allegations that have been proven false. Yet somehow many people still believe this stuff. It's incredible actually. If everything that has been said about him was true, he'd be a horrible choice. What's actually horrible is how his opposition has conducted itself to destroy their opponent (him).

 

[QV]

Harris isn’t electable in my book.
Haley is also not going to be able to be nominated. The party is too divided. My running guess is DeSantis. Trump supporters want someone like Trump. DeSantis is similar yet different. Not my cup of tea, like Trump is nit my cup,of tea, but he’s smarter or at least communicates better. He would be a bigger concern if I was a Democrat.

Some see a civil war. i see an increase in Dometsic terrorism and attempted insurrections . It would be ideological and politically led.

Agree on Harris, she polled below 2% in the Democrat primaries so even her own side doesn't like her.

DeSantis has the best chance because he has a proven track record with Florida and is doing things Trump supporters like, while being far more polished than Trump.

The people who see civil war on the right are just the opposite political spectrum of the extremists from the Antifa rioters during the summer of love who rampaged across cities and burned down federal buildings or threaten to murder supreme court justices ... there's a problem on both ends here.

 

[IKnowNothing]

If much of this were true, you'd have a point. But it's not.

You just proved my point. I deliberately stayed away from the controversial/ disputable aspects and stuck with the accepted and forgotten.
The man is untouchable in the eyes of his base.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Democrats are still favoured to lose the House (maybe heavily), but some recent projections/opinions describe Senate as toss-up or even leaning Democratic.

For months, nothing Democrats have tried has substantially improved their prospects - not the J6 committee (which may be doing damage to them among independents, because they failed to run it impartially) nor any of the other gambits to make the elections about Trump; not the USSC decision to vacate Roe; not any of the legislative achievements despite the usual media suspects trying to fan the embers of "we're on a winning streak"; not attempts to paint economic woes as the fault of some villain or of forces wholly beyond anyone's control (except when a favourable correction happens, in which case it's Biden's doing). Voter sentiment is fixed mainly on economic issues, and Democrats not only have no ammunition for that fight, they do things which militate the problems. They have political ADD, and choose things they'd rather do over things which should be done. (Canadians have a similar problem. By many accounts our health care system is under stress, such that it should be "job one", but it isn't.)

Until the midterm election, expect Democrats and their supporters to keep throwing stuff up into the news cycles. Don't expect all of it to be well thought out, because it will be designed and executed by people who are seeing the world from inside the Democratic bubble. For example, if the MAL raid turns out to just be about documents for the National Archives, then the aim could have been achieved discreetly. A raid of course is sensational, which the key people involved must have known.

 

[brihard]

For example, if the MAL raid turns out to just be about documents for the National Archives, then the aim could have been achieved discreetly. A raid of course is sensational, which the key people involved must have known.

How? You aren’t going to be able to search a place like that covertly without the knowledge of the residents. If a physical search was deemed necessary to obtain evidence (and a Trump-appointed federal judge accepted that it was), what alternate means could have achieved the same?

The FBI didn’t roll up with lights and sirens and all kinds of stuff to draw attention. By all accounts they played it very low key. Word got out primarily because Trump himself ranted about it. It sounds like the FBI’s posture in the search warrant execution was tailored to the very low degree of risk, and was not calculated to be a spectacle.

So yeah- how else do you contend they could have obtained physical evidence that they believed to be on the premises?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Democrats are still favoured to lose the House (maybe heavily), but some recent projections/opinions describe Senate as toss-up or even leaning Democratic.

For months, nothing Democrats have tried has substantially improved their prospects - not the J6 committee (which may be doing damage to them among independents, because they failed to run it impartially) nor any of the other gambits to make the elections about Trump; not the USSC decision to vacate Roe; not any of the legislative achievements despite the usual media suspects trying to fan the embers of "we're on a winning streak"; not attempts to paint economic woes as the fault of some villain or of forces wholly beyond anyone's control (except when a favourable correction happens, in which case it's Biden's doing). Voter sentiment is fixed mainly on economic issues, and Democrats not only have no ammunition for that fight, they do things which militate the problems. They have political ADD, and choose things they'd rather do over things which should be done. (Canadians have a similar problem. By many accounts our health care system is under stress, such that it should be "job one", but it isn't.)

Until the midterm election, expect Democrats and their supporters to keep throwing stuff up into the news cycles. Don't expect all of it to be well thought out, because it will be designed and executed by people who are seeing the world from inside the Democratic bubble. For example, if the MAL raid turns out to just be about documents for the National Archives, then the aim could have been achieved discreetly. A raid of course is sensational, which the key people involved must have known.

I'll put a lot of the projections in the garbage right away. After watching the mainstream MSM misinformation/ disinformation, over the last two years, it's hard to accept anything they have to say is the truth. I'd say more wishful thinking on their part. Much the same as the garbage we see in the Toronto Red Star, CBC, CTV and Global trudeau media outlets.

 

[KevinB]

So yeah- how else do you contend they could have obtained physical evidence that they believed to be on the premises?

Well allegedly Trump was about to turn over some of his Presidential papers to the archives - which sounds like what the raid was for.
Honestly I am curious why it took so long for this to occur.
The whole debacle just seems like a train wreck - which is pretty much akin to anything dealing with DJT.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Speaking of doubt in elections. The Dems took a long term strategy to get illegals able to vote in elections, this includes easing voter identification rules, easing access to identification like driver licences. The Dems like a large pool of illegals as it is a large reservoir of potentiel voters, cheap labour and alters labour markets, likley benefiting many of their rich supporters. In reality the political power center of the Dems have not come far from their slave owning roots. All of this has eroded peoples belief in fair elections by eligible voters. Many US citizens take a great deal more interest in their political system than the most Canadians and many are unhappy about it. Given the amount of funny business over the years with elections in the US, that concern is always warranted. That was only one issue Trump was able to exploit. The Clintons abandonment of middle America is another and the rampant offshoring of jobs under both parties made it clear that the new world order did not include American blue collar workers. Trump is the punishment that both the Dems and the GOP brought onto themselves.

 

[brihard]

Well allegedly Trump was about to turn over some of his Presidential papers to the archives - which sounds like what the raid was for.
Honestly I am curious why it took so long for this to occur.
The whole debacle just seems like a train wreck - which is pretty much akin to anything dealing with DJT.

Right. I’ll operate on the hypothetical that this is about records, some classified, that he retained from his presidency and moved to Mar-A-Lago. Calling it what it is, if he was not permitted by law to hold those records, it’s functionally possessing stolen property. If any of it was classified, that’s a felony (he signed that law). You don’t politely ask for stolen stuff back; you get a warrant, you seize it, and you prosecute if facts fit. If in fact the search did result in the recovery of any presidential records, particularly if there was any classified material, there’s a strong potential for legal jeopardy there. If in fact he still retained records and they had evidence of that fact, there was considerable restraint on the part of the government in not taking these steps sooner- again, acting on the hypothetical assumption that he in fact still held such records and that evidence of this fact was available to investigators earlier.

Even if all records were returned, they could also have been searching for illegally made/retained copies of classified records. Trump isn’t exactly someone who deserves any benefit of the doubt in how he is likely to handle classified material that he no longer has a legitimate need to access.

 

[QV]

Well allegedly Trump was about to turn over some of his Presidential papers to the archives - which sounds like what the raid was for.
Honestly I am curious why it took so long for this to occur.
The whole debacle just seems like a train wreck - which is pretty much akin to anything dealing with DJT.

If they waited for him to turn over the documents, they wouldn't get to use (abuse) the doctrine of plain view and grab everything they can which would then be systematically leaked to damage him during his runup to 2024... I know, I know... would never happen.

 

[KevinB]

Right. I’ll operate on the hypothetical that this is about records, some classified, that he retained from his presidency and moved to Mar-A-Lago. Calling it what it is, if he was not permitted by law to hold those records, it’s functionally possessing stolen property. If any of it was classified, that’s a felony (he signed that law). You don’t politely ask for stolen stuff back; you get a warrant, you seize it, and you prosecute if facts fit. If in fact the search did result in the recovery of any presidential records, particularly is there was any classified material, there’s a strong potential for legal jeopardy there. If in fact he still retained records and they had evidence of that fact, there was considerable restraint on the part of the government in not taking these steps sooner- again, acting on the hypothetical assumption that he in fact still held such records and that evidence of this fact was available to investigators earlier.

Even if all records were returned, they could also have been searching for illegally made/retained copies of classified records. Trump isn’t exactly someone who deserves any benefit of the doubt in how he is likely to handle classified material that he no longer has a legitimate need to access.

No disagreement - but he's not been Pres for quite a while - this seems to me, like a "darn we haven't yet got him from Jan 6th. so lets get him on this". IF he did retain classified information why on earth did it take 18+ months to try to get it?

 

[IKnowNothing]

No disagreement - but he's not been Pres for quite a while - this seems to me, like a "darn we haven't yet got him from Jan 6th. so lets get him on this". IF he did retain classified information why on earth did it take 18+ months to try to get it?

Seems like a big ole catch 22, need to show extreme caution/discretion and satisfy an extreme level of due diligence in deference to the status of past President, but not acting hastily could be used to call the legitimacy into question.

 

[Remius]

Or attempts to get the documents were met with deceit, distraction and failure to comply with what they wanted.

 

[brihard]

No disagreement - but he's not been Pres for quite a while - this seems to me, like a "darn we haven't yet got him from Jan 6th. so lets get him on this". IF he did retain classified information why on earth did it take 18+ months to try to get it?

Remaining in the realm of the hypothetical, this:

Seems like a big ole catch 22, need to show extreme caution/discretion and satisfy an extreme level of due diligence in deference to the status of past President, but not acting hastily could be used to call the legitimacy into question.

And likely this:

Or attempts to get the documents were met with deceit, distraction and failure to comply with what they wanted.

Coupled with the investigative realities that building towards probable cause takes time and solid evidence, and they absolutely cannot afford to get this wrong. Establishing PC that specific evidence exists in a specific place can be challenging, and it’s possible that evidence that got them over that threshold (and across his) only emerged more recently… It wouldn’t suffice that he was believed at one point to have that stuff there; they’d have to have reasonable and probable belief that it was there now, or that other evidence of the alleged offences(s) was there now.

I bet this warrant will have been one of the most carefully scrutinized warrants and affidavits ever even before it left the door, knowing that it certainly will be again if it goes to court.

We’ll know in time, one way or another.

 

[QV]

Americans Deserve an Explanation on FBI’s Mar-a-Lago Search | National Review

If the federal government had no choice, it should be able to make that case before the American public without delay.

www.nationalreview.com