A scary strategic problem - no oil

[GO!!!]

The new electric motors that Toyota is putting in the Highlander Hybrid SUV is more powerful than the gasoline one. It's limitations are centered on Batteries (intolerance to cold, lifespan, price)

The technology is there, it is only a matter of the high price of hydrocarbons providing the impetus for development.

In addition to this, new extraction techniques (horizontal drilling, 02 injection, multi port extraction heads, deep extraction, etc) make the wells that were capped after 25% extraction 30 years ago becoming viable again for salvage production.

I'm not arguing that we are going to run out of oil, and there is a school of thought that states that the peak of production has already been reached. I'm saying that it is not like we don't have a safety net of new technologies, it is there.

Also, our petroleum addiction in terms of lubricants and plastics is a non issue. Less than 5% of total extraction goes to producing lube, and that part of the oil is not usable for many other purposes anyhow. Plastics are made from fuel production by - products. We will be using hydrocarbons in small amounts for uses such as this for a very long time, even after the use of petroleum as a source of energy has largely disappeared.

 

[a_majoor]

I see your point, perhaps it was both. It's more efficient for locomotives, ships etc. to create steam with coal rather than wood and making an automoble that runs on coal would have just been impractical. the only next logical step was petrol. i guess you could say the the step beyond is nuclear, but we just have not down sized that enough to run my wifes SUV  ;D

Actually, the cause and effect were reversed. Coal has a greater energy density than wood, when people had to substitute coal for wood heat they found many processes (like smelting) became easier and more efficient. Raising steam is also much easier with coal. Similarly petrolium has a greater energy density than coal, and is easier to handle since it is a liquid. Higher energy densities led to smaller engines and new technologies to harness the energy, which made cars and airplanes (among other things) practical. As a BTW, the first "car" was designed by Nicholas Joseph Cugnot and constructed by M. Brezin in 1769, and in 1857, Felix Du Temple and his brother Louis, France, flew a model monoplane whose propellers were driven by a small steam engine.

Nuclear power in its present form has a very high energy density, but the technology is not very mature, so we are living in the same sort of transition period as from wood to coal or coal to oil. As GO!!! says, the market will provide incentives to harness this technology.

 

[chrisf]

If only they could master fusion power... it's going to happen eventually, but it's just not an energy solution right now...

Reference the bio-diesel that somone mentioned, not really a viable solution, takes way to much land to produce sufficient quantities of natural oils to produce biodiesel for use as a fuel. It's an interesting concept, perhaps even a potential by-product of the fast-food chains that are making us ever fatter, but just not really viable.

 

[KevinB]

People are using BIO Deisel off old fast food oil...  As such it is not taking anything to make (the few additives excepted).

I recommend reading Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond - its kinda frightening -- especially for those like myself who drive a V-8 Gas Gussling Behemouth (so we can drive over and crush those pesky hybrids  )

 

[TCBF]

Why, just a few minutes ago, I had an experiment on cold fusion going on in a glass of water right here...

... but, I got thirsty and drank it.

;D

Homemade bio-diesel is easy enough to make, but is mostly a summer diesel.  a buddy of mine makes it and he says it freezes when it's cold out.

Tom

 

[redleafjumper]

I had a chemical engineer and his family over for dinner this evening and I asked him about this oil situation.  It turns out that he was quite knowledgeable about it.  He works for a refinery and is involved with research into alternative fuels.  We had a good chat about the problem and he stated that it is expected that in forty years we will be out of oil.  It will be increasingly important to conserve oil for functions that are not replaceable by other energy sources.

He was quite encouraging about bio-diesel, but not very encouraging about making synthetic jet fuel - he expects that process to be incredibly expensive. If I have this correct, he said something about using pulp-mill waste to make the diesel as the byproduct of glycerin is much more limited in that process rather than making it from other sources.  The glycerin by-product is produced in great quantities, well beyond what could be reasonably consumed.  Apparently his company has been in talks with scientist from other countries, notably Sweden.  One issue of discussion is the incredible amounts of energy required to harvest the oil from the tar sands and the fact that a lot of oil is used up to extract the oil from the tar sands.  Some see that as a terrible waste of  the resource and nuclear reactors are one thing that would save a great deal of energy and oil in the tar sands.  The problem is that nuclear power is not popular in Canada and not at all in Alberta.

He was enthusiastic about Geothermal systems for heating and cooling homes and business.  While set-up costs are expensive, the maintenance costs are low, and there is a possibility of powering the pumps and blowers with solar power.  One problem is that the 40 watt solar appliance items are presently incredibly expensive in such a system, however it is possible that as these systems become popular the price might come down, and thus shorten cost recovery time.  Quite an interesting chat, certainly more to look into.

 

[TCBF]

Interesting. Maybe those National Lampoon cartoons of coal powered Soviet WW2 aircraft  were ahead of their time!

I think right now, nuclear is the only solution, especially here in Alberta.  We can talk about clean coal all we want, but that won't last forever either.  Geo-thermal heat pumps are expensive, but that price should come down as well with economies of scale.  A real challenge will be to get totally independent houses: no sewer, water, or electrical hook-ups. 

While we are at it - let's built better and warmer houses instead of copying what they build in SoCal and Florida.

Tom   

 

[George Wallace]

Well Tom, there are always Windmills....Some thing to chase.  ;D

 

[a_majoor]

Here is a link to an article about bio diesel. The interesting thing to note is if the numbers pan out, the entire supply of fuel for transportation could be produced with a very small amount of surface area:

http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

 

[GO!!!]

There is another side to the strategic argument on the topic of oil though.

If we reduce our consumption of oil in a big way, the price of it will remain static relative to inflation, or even fall in price. This cheap oil will be able to stimulate the economies of our competitors, also giving them an edge in the area of military uses for oil.

If we were so foolish as to trade in oil as a source of energy prior to it becoming prohibitively expensive, we would in fact be hurting ourselves, and helping our competitors. (just like the Kyoto accord)

We must continue to use oil at our present pace to ensure that any surplus does not fall into the wrong hands, and when it does run out, all of the players will be on a more level field, due to extremely high prices.

 

[KevinB]

Actually we are best off covertly cutting usage and creating larger strategic reserves - thus militarily we can maintain a higher level of readiness and remain operational for a longer period...

Kyoto is a farce as it does not adress half the issues we face

 

[xFusilier]

Actually its:

3.3L V6 - 200kW

Front (123kW)+Rear(50kW)=173kW

So if you look in terms of horsepower, yes they are less powerful, but if you look in terms of force the electric motor develops higher torque (465 N.m vs. 287 N.m).  In addition given the faster response of an electric throttle, the whole 27kW difference is probably not really noticeable.  Posted in metric to confound your Yankee Imperialist Ways ;D

 

[GO!!!]

Actually its:

3.3L V6 - 200kW

Front (123kW)+Rear(50kW)=173kW

So if you look in terms of horsepower, yes they are less powerful, but if you look in terms of force the electric motor develops higher torque (465 N.m vs. 287 N.m).   In addition given the faster response of an electric throttle, the whole 27kW difference is probably not really noticeable.   Posted in metric to confound your Yankee Imperialist Ways ;D

Now that is some verifiable research!

But I digress.

I was'nt advocating the purchase of the present technology, only indicating that it is there for us at a later date, once it is perfected. I could also point out that Toyota has entered the top 3 of US auto makers, and that GM is haemorraging billions every year, but I'm sure that would be "emotional BS" too.

Anyhoo, since you brought vehicles up, I will be purchasing a new vehicle soon. I will spend in the neighborhood of $45,000 (CAD), on a new or nearly new SUV. It will be a 4x4 and on the larger end of the spectrum. What (in your opinion) should I buy from an economic and strategic standpoint? 

 

[xFusilier]

Well if you want the opinion of a Mo-ltia guy ;D

There is no doubt that one of the factors limiting freedom of action in terms of terrorism in the west it is our dependance on Middle Eastern Oil.  Even if Canada could be self supporting in oil, we do import to replace that which we export.  If you want to follow the old, addage of "think globaly...act locally", a hybrid does make sense, doing your little bit to reduce western reliance on fossil fuels does have its merits and does have the advantage of savings at the gas pump. But I would advise you to look at the reliability of the technology in the vehicle (as you would with any vehicle).  It seems however that most of the vehicles that are being manufactured as Hybrids are fake-4x4's like the Toyata Highlander (beefed up Camry) or the Ford Escape, definately something that would be unworthy of the mandatory AIRBORNE plate (maybe someone could lone you a Logistics Branch plate?).  Personally if it was me I would hold out until Hybrids are cheaper or Fuel Cell technology gets on line.

 

[KevinB]

:  yeah some of that was called for...

 

[xFusilier]

It was all tounge in cheek, not intended to give offence.

All in all said above it appear that GM does make a Chev Silverado 1500 Hybrid.  But like I said its all new technology there are very reasonable arguments both theoretical, see above, and practical (read the effects of gas prices, were all going to be telling our grandchildren about the good old days when the Liters moved faster than the Dollars).  But one has to be aware of the fact that you are buying rather new technology, so YMMV.

 

[GO!!!]

Well if you want the opinion of a Mo-ltia guy ;D

I don't, I asked the guy who is convinced of the omnipotence of the US auto industry.

There is no doubt that one of the factors limiting freedom of action in terms of terrorism in the west it is our dependance on Middle Eastern Oil.   Even if Canada could be self supporting in oil, we do import to replace that which we export.   If you want to follow the old, addage of "think globaly...act locally", a hybrid does make sense, doing your little bit to reduce western reliance on fossil fuels does have its merits and does have the advantage of savings at the gas pump. But I would advise you to look at the reliability of the technology in the vehicle (as you would with any vehicle).   It seems however that most of the vehicles that are being manufactured as Hybrids are fake-4x4's like the Toyata Highlander (beefed up Camry) or the Ford Escape, definately something that would be unworthy of the mandatory AIRBORNE plate (maybe someone could lone you a Logistics Branch plate?).   Personally if it was me I would hold out until Hybrids are cheaper or Fuel Cell technology gets on line.

I suppose I could always slap a mo - litia sticker on it, do my job 3 days a month, and dispense disparging, rambling, incorrect advice too, but that would be pretty dumb, now would'nt it? 

 

[GO!!!]

Oh yes, and everything I just posted 10 seconds ago?

It was all tounge in cheek, not intended to give offence.  :

 

[xFusilier]

I suppose I could always slap a mo - litia sticker on it, do my job 3 days a month, and dispense disparging, rambling, incorrect advice too, but that would be pretty dumb, now would'nt it?

But wait a minute, thats....what...oh hold on a sec...

I don't, I asked the guy who is convinced of the omnipotence of the US auto industry.

My mistake, I'll just go back to my Lada Maintainer Correspondance Course.

 

[a_majoor]

Actually the Honda Ridgeline looks like a good compromise between fuel economy, practicality and LCF. That "trunk" in the load bed is a pretty interesting idea.

At this point in time, I would still be more concerned with what I "need" rather than the theoretical MPGs? Since I have a young family I need a minivan to get around, and the one with the most practicality (based on renting and using the offerings of the "Big Three") was the Caravan. If you need an SUV for real off road or heavy duty use then your choice should be different from someone who drives their SUV on the city streets all the time.