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Alberta government thread

That doesn't bode well for the UCP in next years election.

The NDP Nenshi has flipped a significant seat.

There, FTFY ;)

I don't know what you are fixing there.

If the NDP had to rely on the personal popularity of Naheed Nenshi or even admiration for his leadership skills, then the win in the Calgary Shaw byelection might not have turned out as it did. Nenshi was able to gain his first political win (as Mayor of Calgary in 2010), coming from behind two better funded and better known opponents because he played a better ground game. Though in that election he did come across as more personable (easy to do against a city councilor with a reputation for being negative; harder against Calgary's most popular local TV news anchor), it was the innovative use of social media (remember that was 16 years ago) and a "grassroots" campaign not allied with any political party (though most suspected that he was left of centre) which very much engaged younger voters (who don't usually turn out for municipal elections as much as older voters) that turned the tide.

His foray into NDP politics was a bit of a surprise, most assumed that he was a Liberal (though he had never been a member of any political party). But by the time he moved on from municipal politics being a Liberal in Alberta would have been a lonely journey. Even after gaining the leadership of the Alberta NDP, polling of his popularity never approached that of the former leader (and former NDP Premier) Rachel Notley. Notley is a tough act to follow. I don't think that Nenshi will be able to recreate his "personal" success as mayor of Calgary. The NDP may succeed in the next provincial election but that will be more on the collapse of the UCP as "united" conservatives (and the lingering stink of separatism) and not on the coattails of Nenshi.
 
Not good news for the UCP.



I would hold the champagne until the clusterf*** that is the Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission presents it's "new" report (the previous one, presented on time earlier this year, but rejected by the government) to see if the electoral districts have been added to and/or changed significantly (they have a term of "hybrid" to describe odd shaped districts that are a mix of rural and urban populations) that will provide a (gerrymandered?) way forward for the UCP to remain in power.

Earlier this week, the Alberta NDP flipped a conservative stronghold riding with a win in Calgary-Shaw, a byelection that's been viewed as a potential bellwether ahead of the next provincial election.

But the boundaries that make up Calgary-Shaw today could look very different come next election, and one recently-proposed map that uses hybrid urban-rural ridings could potentially make it more difficult for the NDP to repeat Monday's feat.

Redrawing Alberta’s voting lines is typically a routine affair. Every eight to 10 years, a commission forms with the goal to consult and deliver a plan setting out potential provincial voting boundaries.

or a shorter version of the same story for those who don't read
 
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