Canadian Surface Combatant RFQ

[Czech_pivo]

Anyone know when the next phase/milestone on the CSC progression might be coming out? It seems like we're due for a bit of news on where the project is at in terms of delivery milestones.

 

[Stoker]

Anyone know when the next phase/milestone on the CSC progression might be coming out? It seems like we're due for a bit of news on where the project is at in terms of delivery milestones.

First delivery to the RCN in 2031, with 2 years of trials for final acceptance.

 

[Czech_pivo]

First delivery to the RCN in 2031, with 2 years of trials for final acceptance.

Wow!
That's brutally long from now, 2033 before the first ship replaces the oldest Halifax class.
That means the oldest Halifax will be 41yrs old when its replaced and with all 12 of them coming online between 1992-96 it should be crystal clear that we will not have 12 combat capable ships on the books by the late 2030's.

Question, will we be able to meet our NATO and NORAD stated commitments during the late 2030's, early 2040's based on this?

I really don't see how they will be able to continue with the existing stated timeline of delivering the CSC's at the pace that they've been talking about. If they deliver 1 CSC per year starting in 2031, that means the 12th CSC will be delivered, not operational, in 2043, when the last of the 12 Halifax's will 47yrs old! I'd like to point out that none of the Iroquois class made it that long.

Also, that means that Irving will deliver over the next 9-10yrs 4 more RCN AOPS and 2 CCGS AOPS between now and before 2031 when they will deliver the first CSC in 2031. Anyone else see that as close to impossible given Irving's current track record over the last 7-8yrs?

I think that its going to have to be the following cases below in order to deliver the first CSC in 2031:
1) The 2 CCGS AOPS's are either not built or are built by Davie, allowing Irving to start building the first CSC in 2026-7
2) The delivery of the first CSC in 2031 is not going to happen
3) Davie is brought in to build 3-5 of the CSC's over the early, mid 2030's (along with possibly building the 2 CCGS AOPS)
4) A Christmas Miracle occurs and all 6 RCN AOPS and 2 CCGS AOPS are delivered before 2031 and the first CSC is delivered on time in 2031

I realise that what is being attempted is completing re-building an entire industry again from scrap - but this should NOT be a 40+yr process/timeline as that is what is occurring. Its farcical to think that.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

We have two allied nations currently building their first hulls, I hope by god we have teams going there and learning from them, what mistakes they made, what they have learned. Along with the "dry" ship we are planning for the electronics and combat suite, we should be planning out and cutting steel for our first test module soon. Cancel the two CCG AOP's they were always filler and use that space to build the modules that are already configured and not likely to change, such as the bow and stern sections.

 

[KevinB]

Wow!
That's brutally long from now, 2033 before the first ship replaces the oldest Halifax class.
That means the oldest Halifax will be 41yrs old when its replaced and with all 12 of them coming online between 1992-96 it should be crystal clear that we will not have 12 combat capable ships on the books by the late 2030's.

I don't see 12 mission capable CFC's by the end of the 2020's.
Even if the CF starts trying to keep them out of the North Atlantic - they have had a tough life. Looking at the deployment schedules for RCN ships, they don't seem to get the same rest as other NATO vessels, and significantly notable differences in major refit times in dry dock.

I'm no SME on the Navy - but I see 1) Rough Environment 2) Little Rest 3) No Rework as a major issue

Question, will we be able to meet our NATO and NORAD stated commitments during the late 2030's, early 2040's based on this?

I think it will be impossible before 2030.

I really don't see how they will be able to continue with the existing stated timeline of delivering the CSC's at the pace that they've been talking about. If they deliver 1 CSC per year starting in 2031, that means the 12th CSC will be delivered, not operational, in 2043, when the last of the 12 Halifax's will 47yrs old! I'd like to point out that none of the Iroquois class made it that long.

Also, that means that Irving will deliver over the next 9-10yrs 4 more RCN AOPS and 2 CCGS AOPS between now and before 2031 when they will deliver the first CSC in 2031. Anyone else see that as close to impossible given Irving's current track record over the last 7-8yrs?

Also isn't the CCG Ice Breaker supposed to get built too?

I think that its going to have to be the following cases below in order to deliver the first CSC in 2031:
1) The 2 CCGS AOPS's are either not built or are built by Davie, allowing Irving to start building the first CSC in 2026-7
2) The delivery of the first CSC in 2031 is not going to happen
3) Davie is brought in to build 3-5 of the CSC's over the early, mid 2030's (along with possibly building the 2 CCGS AOPS)
4) A Christmas Miracle occurs and all 6 RCN AOPS and 2 CCGS AOPS are delivered before 2031 and the first CSC is delivered on time in 2031

CCG John G. Diefenbaker is supposed to fit (as I mentioned above) and Davie is needing to work on several CCG ships and some conversions as well to keep the CCG in the Ice Game until the JGD comes online.

I realise that what is being attempted is completing re-building an entire industry again from scrap - but this should NOT be a 40+yr process/timeline as that is what is occurring. Its farcical to think that.

 

[Uzlu]

I think that its going to have to be the following cases below in order to deliver the first CSC in 2031:
1) The 2 CCGS AOPS's are either not built or are built by Davie, allowing Irving to start building the first CSC in 2026-7

If you want the first surface combatant to be delivered as quickly as possible, why start building it in 2026 or 2027? Why not start building it, as currently planned, in 2023 or 2024? Canadian surface combatant - Canada.ca

 

[KevinB]

If you want the first surface combatant to be delivered as quickly as possible, why start building it in 2026 or 2027? Why not start building it, as currently planned, in 2023 or 2024? Canadian surface combatant - Canada.ca

That is an absolutely unrealistic timeline - look at the projects that are up to be run.

 

[MTShaw]

We have two allied nations currently building their first hulls, I hope by god we have teams going there and learning from them, what mistakes they made, what they have learned. Along with the "dry" ship we are planning for the electronics and combat suite, we should be planning out and cutting steel for our first test module soon. Cancel the two CCG AOP's they were always filler and use that space to build the modules that are already configured and not likely to change, such as the bow and stern sections.

The CCG Harry Dewolf class were never ordered. They’re planned. That’s a huge difference. COVID 19 also slowed down the progress of the AOPS so there is that.

Harry DeWolf-class offshore patrol vessel - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[KevinB]

Correct me if I am wrong:

Irving:
4 AOPS
2 JSS
1 CCG Polar 2 (John G. Diefenbaker)

Davie:
Refit of LSL Ice Breaker (due to delay in JDG which was pushed back to do the JSS)
Refit of 4 other Ice Breakers to be make up for delays in the JDG)
- potential of 1 CCG Polar 2 (yet to be named twin for the JDG - given the fact the JDG almost doubled in price I highly doubt the would go ahead - but on never knows) )

All of which have promise dates before the CSC.




You can't get blood from a stone - and you can't push out ships from a dockyard faster than they can be built...

 

[MTShaw]

I don't see 12 mission capable CFC's by the end of the 2020's.
Even if the CF starts trying to keep them out of the North Atlantic - they have had a tough life. Looking at the deployment schedules for RCN ships, they don't seem to get the same rest as other NATO vessels, and significantly notable differences in major refit times in dry dock.

I'm no SME on the Navy - but I see 1) Rough Environment 2) Little Rest 3) No Rework as a major issue



I think it will be impossible before 2030.

Also isn't the CCG Ice Breaker supposed to get built too?


CCG John G. Diefenbaker is supposed to fit (as I mentioned above) and Davie is needing to work on several CCG ships and some conversions as well to keep the CCG in the Ice Game until the JGD comes online.

Our frigates are fine. They’re ridden hard but less so than the American or British. They receive regular maintenance, including dry dock. They just look like crap. Ferries ride through horrifying seas for fifty years and don’t have their keels weaken.

 

[dapaterson]

Shipyard capacity in Halifax. Availability of long lead items. Lack of finalized design.

Take your pick as a reason not to start in '23.

 

[MTShaw]

Correct me if I am wrong:

Irving:
4 AOPS
2 JSS
1 CCG Polar 2 (John G. Diefenbaker)

Davie:
Refit of LSL Ice Breaker (due to delay in JDG which was pushed back to do the JSS)
Refit of 4 other Ice Breakers to be make up for delays in the JDG)
- potential of 1 CCG Polar 2 (yet to be named twin for the JDG - given the fact the JDG almost doubled in price I highly doubt the would go ahead - but on never knows) )

All of which have promise dates before the CSC.




You can't get blood from a stone - and you can't push out ships from a dockyard faster than they can be built...

Ice breaker and JSS are Seaspan projects.

 

[Kirkhill]

We have two allied nations currently building their first hulls, I hope by god we have teams going there and learning from them, what mistakes they made, what they have learned. Along with the "dry" ship we are planning for the electronics and combat suite, we should be planning out and cutting steel for our first test module soon. Cancel the two CCG AOP's they were always filler and use that space to build the modules that are already configured and not likely to change, such as the bow and stern sections.

Please tell me that the "dry" ship is being built in sea-cans and on trailers so it can be transferred/duplicated for the RCA.

 

[MTShaw]

Shipyard capacity in Halifax. Availability of long lead items. Lack of finalized design.

Take your pick as a reason not to start in '23.

I don’t know what they have or not have not ordered. They have ordered three canons from Leonardo .

 

[Czech_pivo]

Our frigates are fine. They’re ridden hard but less so than the American or British. They receive regular maintenance, including dry dock. They just look like crap. Ferries ride through horrifying seas for fifty years and don’t have their keels weaken.

Our frigates are fine right now, yes, ok - but how fine will they be in 2036, 15yrs out when they all will be 40+yrs old and only about 3 will have been replaced? Answer that question. The odds are not stacked in our favour at all - not at all - that we will have a viable frigate fleet available to honour our NATO/NORAD treaty commitments, as well as do any of the other required roles they have admirably performed over that last 25yrs by 2036-39 unless another shipyard becomes involved in the building process in the late 2020's.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Our frigates are fine. They’re ridden hard but less so than the American or British. They receive regular maintenance, including dry dock. They just look like crap. Ferries ride through horrifying seas for fifty years and don’t have their keels weaken.

Regarding the British ships, from what I've learned here, the Brits rarely keep/use a non-capital ship (meaning anything bigger than a frigate/destroyer) longer than around 30yrs. We will be adding another 12-15yrs beyond that.

For example (TYPE 23 frigate):
HMS Argyll was commissioned in 1991 and will be decommissioned in 2023 (had its mid-life upgrade in 2017)
HMS Lancaster was commissioned in 1992 and will be decommissioned in 2024 (had its mid-life upgrade in 2019)

Using our Halifax's as an example

HMCS Halifax was commissioned in 1992 and, if will follow the concept of 'first launched, first decommissioned', then it will be decommissioned in 2033
HMCS Vancouver was commissioned in 1993, decommissioned in 2035?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Correct me if I am wrong:

Irving:
4 AOPS
2 JSS
1 CCG Polar 2 (John G. Diefenbaker)

Davie:
Refit of LSL Ice Breaker (due to delay in JDG which was pushed back to do the JSS)
Refit of 4 other Ice Breakers to be make up for delays in the JDG)
- potential of 1 CCG Polar 2 (yet to be named twin for the JDG - given the fact the JDG almost doubled in price I highly doubt the would go ahead - but on never knows) )

All of which have promise dates before the CSC.




You can't get blood from a stone - and you can't push out ships from a dockyard faster than they can be built...

Davie has the infrastructure (not saying that it has the experienced manpower) to build both the CCGS Polar and a CCGS AOPS at that sametime , as well as the refits of the existing icebreakers. It's the largest shipyard in Canada and has the largest graving dock in Canada at 351m long.

I just don't see how Irving will be able to deliver to the RCN 4 more AOPS and 2 CCG AOPS as well as the first CSC by 2031 - deliver 7 ships of 6,000+ tons each in 10yrs.

 

[Stoker]

Wow!
That's brutally long from now, 2033 before the first ship replaces the oldest Halifax class.
That means the oldest Halifax will be 41yrs old when its replaced and with all 12 of them coming online between 1992-96 it should be crystal clear that we will not have 12 combat capable ships on the books by the late 2030's.

Question, will we be able to meet our NATO and NORAD stated commitments during the late 2030's, early 2040's based on this?

I really don't see how they will be able to continue with the existing stated timeline of delivering the CSC's at the pace that they've been talking about. If they deliver 1 CSC per year starting in 2031, that means the 12th CSC will be delivered, not operational, in 2043, when the last of the 12 Halifax's will 47yrs old! I'd like to point out that none of the Iroquois class made it that long.

Also, that means that Irving will deliver over the next 9-10yrs 4 more RCN AOPS and 2 CCGS AOPS between now and before 2031 when they will deliver the first CSC in 2031. Anyone else see that as close to impossible given Irving's current track record over the last 7-8yrs?

I think that its going to have to be the following cases below in order to deliver the first CSC in 2031:
1) The 2 CCGS AOPS's are either not built or are built by Davie, allowing Irving to start building the first CSC in 2026-7
2) The delivery of the first CSC in 2031 is not going to happen
3) Davie is brought in to build 3-5 of the CSC's over the early, mid 2030's (along with possibly building the 2 CCGS AOPS)
4) A Christmas Miracle occurs and all 6 RCN AOPS and 2 CCGS AOPS are delivered before 2031 and the first CSC is delivered on time in 2031

I realise that what is being attempted is completing re-building an entire industry again from scrap - but this should NOT be a 40+yr process/timeline as that is what is occurring. Its farcical to think that.

You're actually wrong, the last of the Halifax class will be around 51 years old. The fist half dozen after the first one will take around 18 months to build with the rest taking around a year a piece. Options to speed up the process was looked at however it would even add more cost to the project.
We have a whole organization in Ottawa to manage the life extension of the Halifax Class, ships will still go sea and do the business but at a cost.

 

[dapaterson]

Same folks who let an oiler go out, unfit sea, that burned.

You'll forgive me if I don't think RCN risk management is up to par

 

[Stoker]

Same folks who let an oiler go out, unfit sea, that burned.

You'll forgive me if I don't think RCN risk management is up to par

No offence the oiler burned not because it was old, because of a accident and poor decision making on the timely activation of a fitted system. Risk assessments and mitigations are part of doing business in the RCN or any other Navy.