Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[a_majoor]

One scenario of how this might play out:

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2005448.asp

China Plans Surprise Attack on Taiwan
by James Dunnigan
April 4, 2005

China is apparently planning an â Å“out-of-the-blueâ ? (OOTB) attack on Taiwan, that will initially consist mainly of missiles, warplanes, paratroopers and troops out on "training exercises". What this means is that, during what appears to be peacetime maneuvers, the troops involved will suddenly move against a nearby nation and invade. This tactic was developed by Russia during the Cold War, but never used. They prepared for it by holding large scale training exercises twice a year, near the border with West Germany. The Russian troops were all ready to practice, or go to war. An OOTB attack could be ordered by having the troops to cross the border and attack NATO forces, who would have insufficient warning to deal with the sudden offensive. NATO finally caught on to this plan, and put the troops on alert during the Russian field exercises. The OOTB was most noticeably used, and successfully at that, when the Russian trained Egyptian army surprised the Israelis and recaptured the Suez canal in 1973.

If everyone is on to OOTB attacks, how does China expect to get away with it? Especially when it would involve an amphibious operation involving at least ten hours time at sea for the ships of the amphibious force. The exact details are kept secret, but the plan involves using over 600 ballistic missiles, and several hundred warplanes, which China has stationed within range of Taiwan. Within an hour, the missiles could hit Taiwanese anti-aircraft missile launchers, radars, airbases, ships in harbor and army barracks and combat vehicles. Launch the attack in the pre-dawn hours, and you catch most of the troops in their barracks, and the ships, warplanes and tanks lined up and vulnerable. Amphibious troops would already be on their ships, for an amphibious exercises, escorted by numerous warships. As the amphibious fleet headed for Taiwan, hundreds of Chinese warplanes would return to hit whatever targets had been missed.

Taiwanese commanders have responded with plans to keep warships at sea and some aircraft in the air at all times during Chinese exercises. Even 900 ballistic missiles, which the Chinese will have in place during the next few years, would not be sufficient to shut down the Taiwanese armed forces. But if the missiles, and air strikes soon thereafter, could do enough damage to prevent the first wave of amphibious ships from getting hit bad, Taiwan would be in big trouble. In fact, if the Chinese could get control of the air over Taiwan for a day or so, three Chinese airborne divisions could be dropped on Taiwan as well.

Taiwan has always expected assistance from the U.S. Navy and Air Force. But without advance warning to get a carrier or two into the area, and a few hundred U.S. Air Force planes alerted for movement to Taiwan, Japan and Guam, the American assistance would be too late. Thus, for Taiwan, an OOTB attack, which the Chinese appear to be preparing to carry out, is something to worry about.

The question then becomes what sort of follow up action would the US, Japan, Australia and possibly S Korea and India have up their sleeves?

 

[tomahawk6]

Every time the PRC conducts major exercises near Taiwan then the USN would have exercises in the region. If an OOTB attack occured they would already be on station.

 

[muskrat89]

Today, from the International Herald Tribune

http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/04/07/news/china.html

Chinese begin to worry U.S. militarily
By Jim Yardley and Thom Shanker The New York Times
Friday, April 8, 2005


Officials say equation has shifted in event of a Taiwan crisis

ZHANJIANG, China When the flagship of the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet came into view on a recent Monday afternoon, a Chinese naval band onshore quickly began playing as two rows of Chinese sailors snapped into formation and workers hurriedly finished tacking down a red carpet.

The command ship, the Blue Ridge, answered with music from its own band and raised a Chinese flag below Old Glory.

But the most apt symbolism in the stagecraft of the ceremonial visit came when the two navies staged a tug-of-war - evoking their emerging competition in East Asia.

While the American military is consumed with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, global terrorism, and the threat of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, China is presenting a new and strategically different security concern to America in the western Pacific, as well as to Japan and Taiwan, Pentagon and military officials say.

China, these officials say, has smartly analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the American military and focused its growing defense spending on weapons systems that could exploit the perceived weaknesses in case the United States ever needs to respond to fighting in Taiwan.

This rapid military modernization is the major reason President George W. Bush has warned the European Union not to lift its arms embargo against China.

A decade ago, U.S. military planners dismissed the threat of a Chinese attack against Taiwan as a 160-kilometer infantry swim. Now, the Pentagon believes that China has purchased or built enough amphibious assault ships, submarines, fighter jets and short-range missiles to pose an immediate threat to Taiwan and to any American force that might come to Taiwan's aid.

Even the most hawkish officials at the Pentagon do not believe China is preparing for an imminent invasion of Taiwan. Nor do analysts believe China is any match for the United States military.

But as neighboring North Korea is erratically trying to play the nuclear card, China is quietly challenging America's reach in the western Pacific by concentrating strategically on conventional forces.

"They are building their force to deter and delay our ability to intervene in a Taiwan crisis," said Eric McVadon, a former military attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. "What they have done is cleverly develop some capabilities that have the prospect of attacking our niche vulnerabilities."

Japan, America's closest ally in East Asia, and China's rival for regional dominance, is also watching China's buildup. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi echoed Bush by warning Europe against removing the arms embargo. A think tank affiliated with Japan's Defense Ministry criticized China's increased military spending and warned it was rushing to prepare for possible conflict with Taiwan - an assertion China sharply denied.

The growing friction between Japan and China, fueled by rising nationalism in both countries, is just one of the political developments exacerbating tensions in East Asia.

In March, China passed a controversial new "anti-secession" law authorizing a military attack if top leaders believe Taiwan moves too far toward independence - a move that brought hundreds of thousands of people in Taiwan out in protest last month.

China's most recent military white paper also alarmed U.S. policymakers because it mentioned the United States by name for the first time since 1998. It stated that the American presence in the region "complicated security factors."

China, meanwhile, blamed the United States and Japan for meddling in a domestic Chinese matter when those two countries recently issued a security statement that listed peace in Taiwan as a "common strategic objective."

"The potential for a miscalculation or an incident here has actually increased, just based on the rhetoric over the past six months to a year," one U.S. intelligence analyst in Washington said.

At the welcoming ceremony for the Blue Ridge here at the hometown of China's South Sea Fleet, the American commanding officer, Captain J. Stephen Maynard, and his Chinese counterpart, Senior Captain Wen Rulang, sidestepped questions about the anti-secession law and military tensions.

Wen, Asked about China's military buildup and how America should view it, praised the U.S. Navy as the most modern in the world.

"As for China," he said, "our desire is to upgrade China's self-defense capabilities."

But in China's view, self-defense involves Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province and which the United States has, by treaty, suggested it would help defend. In 1996, when China fired missiles in warning over the Taiwan Strait prior to Taiwanese elections, President Bill Clinton responded by sending a battle group to a position near Taiwan. Then, China could do nothing about it. Now, analysts say, it can.

In fact, U.S. carriers responding to a crisis would now initially have to operate at least 800 kilometers, or 500 miles, from Taiwan, which would reduce the number of jet fighter sorties they could launch and cut their loiter time in international airspace near Taiwan.

This is because China now has a modernizing fleet of submarines, including new Russian-made nuclear subs that can fire antiship missiles from a submerged position. America would first need to subdue these submarines before moving ships close to Taiwan.

China launched 13 attack submarines between 2002 and 2004, a period when it also built 23 ships that can ferry armored vehicles and troops across the 160-kilometer-wide strip of water to Taiwan.

"Their amphibious assault ship building alone equals the entire U.S. navy shipbuilding since 2002," said an intelligence official in Washington. "It definitely represents a significant increase in overall capacity."

In the worse-case scenario for a Taiwan crisis, any delay in U.S. carriers reaching the island would mean that the United States would initially depend on fighter jets and bombers stationed on Guam and Okinawa, while Chinese forces could use their amphibious ships to traverse the narrow Strait. Some U.S. military analysts believe China could now defeat Taiwan before America could arrive at the scene.





Thom Shanker reported from Washington.



 

 

[tomahawk6]

Any PRC invasion would have real trouble with USN submarines. The PRC MUST establish air superiority before they try crossing the straight not any easy task. But I think their greatest worry should be the USAF bomber force. Loaded with ALCM's they could orbit beyond the range of PLAAF fighters and they would sink any large amphibious vessels that approach Taiwan. The PRC would be very foolish to attempt to seize Taiwan. A failed invasion would surely bring down their government.

 

[a_majoor]

Any PRC invasion would have real trouble with USN submarines. The PRC MUST establish air superiority before they try crossing the straight not any easy task. But I think their greatest worry should be the USAF bomber force. Loaded with ALCM's they could orbit beyond the range of PLAAF fighters and they would sink any large amphibious vessels that approach Taiwan. The PRC would be very foolish to attempt to seize Taiwan. A failed invasion would surely bring down their government.

This scenario assumes the US has sufficient strategic warning to prepare such a response. Even if the Chinese score a strategic surprise, these tactics will certainly hurt the Chinese as they attempt to supply or reinforce the invasion force, as well as prepare for the inevitable counter attack.

The big question is would US forces enter Tiawan, or would they surprise the Chinese by invading mainland China and reducing the logistics bases, air and sea ports needed to support the Chinese invasion? What other tricks would the US have up its sleeve to attack Chinese "niche vulnerabilities"?

Lots of interesting questions.

 

[tomahawk6]

The US could defend Taiwan without operating out of the island. I think the PRC invasion of Taiwan is somewhat similar to the problem that the German's faced as they planned their invasion of Britain. The German's were unable to acheive air superiority so the cross channel invasion was shelved in favor of submarine warfare to starve Britain into submission. Perhaps the PRC might consider a blockade
of the island instead.

 

[TCBF]

Our Gaijin lack of understanding is of course the result of "Cultural Differences."

Tom

 

[Britney Spears]

For some factual evidence.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/4449005.stm

Japan's decision to approve new school textbooks, criticised by some for glossing over the country's wartime record, have promoted demonstrations in several Chinese cities. But as William Horsley discovers the row between the two countries concerns the future as well as the past.

Yasukuni Shrine
Prime Minister Koizumi's visits to the shrine were criticised by China
The most striking thing about the Yasukuni Shrine is its massive and forbidding black "torii" gate.

A distinctive symbol of the Shinto religion, a gaunt silhouette beneath which, on a bright spring day, I watched men and women of all ages streaming in to pay their respects to ancestors, or to admire the enchanting display of cherry blossoms on the tree-lined avenue.

Each family group would pause, shut their eyes and pray in front of the open-plan wooden building where the souls of two-and-a-half-million Japanese war dead are enshrined.

Those war dead include Hideki Tojo, Japan's wartime prime minister who was later hanged with a dozen other top leaders as a war criminal.

Japan's present leader, Junichiro Koizumi has made regular visits to Yasukuni Shrine in spite of furious complaints from China, South Korea and other neighbouring countries that in doing so he was condoning Japan's aggressive war in the 1930s and 1940s.

And now, the news from China is bad, very bad.

Demonstrations

Chinese demonstrators burn a Japanese flag
Demonstrations over the text-books have extended to South Korea
Last weekend an angry crowd gathered in Beijing to throw stones at the Japanese embassy.

In other cities young people have attacked Japanese shops and businesses.

In Shanghai two Japanese students were badly beaten up in a restaurant.

Chinese leaders say Japan will not deserve a permanent seat on the UN Security Council until it faces up honestly to its wartime misdeeds.

An e-mail doing the rounds in China calls for a mass boycott of Japanese goods. "Send this on to other Chinese people", the message says, "and we won't need to go to war!"

History

This stream of invective against the Japanese is not new.

Some Asia watchers see it largely as a device by Chinese leaders to extract more Japanese aid or divert attention from their own failings.

It is alarmingly reminiscent of the age of the Communist Red Guards.


The Yasukuni Shrine remains a potent symbol of how the Japanese, intoxicated by fascism and coerced by military rule, once collectively lost their reason and were fed fantastic myths, of racial superiority and the Emperor's divinity
But on this trip to Japan I could not avoid the conclusion that a new mood of nationalism has also begun to take hold in this country which has been publicly devoted to peace and economic prosperity for so long.

One sign is the Japanese authorities' approval of several new school history textbooks written by known right-wing scholars.

One book which has angered the Chinese failed to make any assessment of the number of Chinese civilians killed in the infamous Rape of Nanjing.

The internationally accepted view is that hundreds of thousands died in an orgy of sexual violence and killing by Japanese troops.

And Japan's largest national newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun, in what I take to be blatant disregard for the known facts, has called on its readers to celebrate, because the new textbooks have cut out all mention of one of the greatest of all the humiliations inflicted by Imperial Japan on its neighbours: the use of large numbers of women in conquered Asian countries as sex slaves for the Japanese army.

It was right to set the record straight, I read, because the accusations "had been shown to be untrue".

Surely I thought modern Japan could not give in to the poison of such deceit and hypocrisy ever again.

The Yasukuni Shrine remains a potent symbol of how the Japanese, intoxicated by fascism and coerced by military rule, once collectively lost their reason and were fed fantastic myths, of racial superiority and the Emperor's divinity.

'Bitter dispute'

I had come to see the recently expanded Yasukuni museum of Japanese history.

I found that its 18 galleries of high-quality displays, maps and texts amount to a lavish and expensive re-write of the history of Japan's imperial age, to show the Japanese as innocent victims of a conspiracy by the Western colonial powers, to thwart Japan's ambition to lead East Asia and force Japan into war.

By this account annexing Korea, setting up a puppet regime in Manchukuo, the step by step takeover of China, each was done in self-defence, aiming only to bring peace.

As for Nanjing, I found no mention of Japanese soldiers killing civilians.

Instead, these words: "The Chinese were soundly defeated, suffering heavy casualties. Inside the city, residents were once again able to live their lives in peace."

However you look at it, that will not do as a record of what happened.

By chance I came across this testimony of a Japanese army veteran who was there.

"No matter how young or old, none of the women we rounded up could escape being raped. Each one was allocated to 15 or 20 soldiers for sexual intercourse and abuse."

Afterwards "we always stabbed them and killed them. Because dead bodies don't talk."


For 100 years Japan has been number one in Asia. Now China, with 10 times Japan's population, is in a hurry to take over that role


The bitter dispute now raging between Japan and China is both about setting the record straight and about a struggle for power.

For 100 years Japan has been number one in Asia.

Now China, with 10 times Japan's population, is in a hurry to take over that role.

And as with highly-geared racing cars sharing the same circuit, it is the moment of overtaking that brings the greatest risk of a crash.











Now, I think many of us know first hand that mob violence is a very bad thing (tm), and the vandalism and attacks on Japanese students in China are in no way excusable behaviour, but they have helped bring into the western spotlight the legitimate complaints against Japanese revisionist histories. I should also point out that accusations of the protests being "staged" or "orchestrated" are simply hogwash. A conversation with ANY Chinese person (there's a bunch of them) will put those theories to rest. The simultaneous protests and violence in South Korea can attest to this as well.  Now we can only hope that the misguided protestors don't do anything outrageous to discredit the legitimate cause.

Also, I don't think the situation in Japan is quite as dire as the Chinese would like to think. AFAIK, holocaust deniers still represent a lunatic fringe in Japan, sort of on par with the "intelligent design/creationist" faction in the US. While they are a vocal voice, no one actually takes them seriously enough to try reasoning with them. So don't let this be a hinderance to you socializing with Japanese folks. The Chinese, not suprisingly,  still have a hard time understanding why these folks are allowed to voice their opinions in a liberal democracy.

 

[I_am_John_Galt]

Another take on the demonstrations/protests in China (from Damian Penny, quoting other sources, emphasis mine):

April 17, 2005
Big Trouble in Big China

It's hard to believe anything like the current wave of anti-Japanese protests could be happening in China with at least the tacit approval of the government, and I think Ezra Levant has it right - just as the squalid dictatorships of the Muslim world direct their peoples' anger toward Israel instead of their own corrupt leaders, the Chinese Communists are happy to let the people rage against Japan if it keeps them from demanding free elections and stuff. But according to The Times, the government is surprised and disturbed by the size and scale of the protests:

In Shanghai, China's biggest city, police stood by as around 20,000 rioters smashed windows at the Japanese consulate, wrecked Japanese noodle restaurants and overturned nearby Nissan cars. The latest protests recalled the previous weekend's demonstrations in Beijing when windows at the embassy were smashed. Mr Machimura has demanded an apology and compensation.
[...]
These protests are more remarkable because popular dissent is not tolerated in China. Any displays of public disobedience are dealt with swiftly, especially since the pro-democracy protests in the spring of 1989, which went on for weeks before they ended in a bloody crackdown.

In Beijing, hundreds of police blanketed Tiananmen Square in the heart of the capital to block a planned demonstration. There have been strong rumours that protests took place with the tacit approval of the Government.

But the scale of the protests seems to have taken the Government by surprise. Last week, it called for calm, apparently worried that the riots might encourage others to take to the streets to demonstrate against corruption or to demand political reforms. A front-page editorial in the Communist Party newspaper People's Daily yesterday called for the people to â Å“maintain social stabilityâ ?.

The protests have spread across China. Around 1,000 protesters tried to reach the Japanese consulate in the northeastern city of Shenyang yesterday, before being turned away by police.

The protests are ostensibly about disputed gas reserves and a new Japanese textbook which downplays and denies country's Second World War atrocities, but there's nothing really new about either of those. (Frankly, if American or British educators treated slavery or the Empire the way the Japanese treat the War, you'd never hear the end of it.) The Chinese people are angry about a lot more than a schoolbook - and their leaders know it.

http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/004183.html

 

[a_majoor]

The China Mess
What are we thinking?

There's a lot of bad political and economic blood developing between China and Japan, and China and the U.S. None of it is going to lead to any good.

Anti-Japanese demonstrations have broken out in Shanghai and Hong Kong, with Chinese authorities looking on with winks and nods. The Chinese want Japan to apologize for aggression in the 1930s and 1940s, although Japan has done so about forty times in recent years. The Chinese also claim not to like Japan's newly revised history textbooks on the subject. Then there's the ongoing squabble about oil and gas reserves on some offshore islands and the matter of Japanese membership in the U.N. Security Council.

But the problems here run much deeper. China doesn't much like the fact that Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi is pulling his country even closer to the U.S. in the world terror war. This renewed U.S.-Japan alliance also implies that a free and democratic Taiwan will be protected against Beijing's new â Å“anti-secessionâ ? law.

Japan is also firm in supporting U.S. efforts to stop North Korea's military and nuclear buildup. China dominates North Korea, so it could really put the pressure on Kim Jong Il to renegotiate a nuclear agreement. But China only says it will help with the North Korea problem and never seems to do very much.

China shows its two faces all the time. It praised the late Pope John Paul II upon his passing and then promptly jailed a Catholic bishop and a priest. It has been liberalizing its economy and reforming local government, but it is still a dictatorship without free national elections. Though it has taken steps to join the community of nations, it now appears to be launching a newly militant program of nationalism, with a sizeable military buildup. Japan may be the proximate target, but one ultimately suspects that all this is aimed at the U.S.

The U.S., however, isn't helping matters by threatening to launch a currency- and trade-protection war against China. The U.S., Japan, and the rest of the G-7 nations are putting the heat on China to revalue, or â Å“up-value,â ? the yuan and end its peg to the U.S. dollar. This is allegedly to correct global trade imbalances and stop â Å“cheapâ ? Chinese exports from flooding U.S. and European markets. But any meaningful currency adjustment would have to be a yuan revaluation of at least 25 percent. That would require significant tightening of Chinese monetary policy, which, in turn, would cause a big slowdown in Chinese economic growth.

Is that what we really want?

The threat of a currency war could be an unnoticed factor in the recent U.S. stock market plunge. A much slower China economy would take a percentage point or two off U.S. economic growth, especially in areas like commodities, cyclical industries, tech, transportation, shipping, and trucking. These are the exact market sectors that are getting hammered on Wall Street.

Have the U.S. Treasury, the G-7, and the IMF forgotten the recent history of misbegotten currency manipulation? When several Asian currencies were forced to de-link from the U.S. dollar in the 1990s, world deflation followed. Floating exchange rates were a big mistake then, and could be a big mistake now.

Treasury man John Snow insists on floating rates worldwide, but he forgets that emerging-country currencies don't float â ” they sink. Aren't we yet persuaded that nations cannot devalue their way to prosperity? Or that currency stability is better than currency chaos?

China, remember, has a shaky banking system plagued with bad state-sponsored loans made to failing nationalized companies. A floating yuan might rise in the short run, but it could crash in the medium term as foreign investors withdraw their capital flows for fear of instability.

Fortunately, when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited China recently, she avoided any mention of forcing a currency change. But John Snow, encouraged by congressional Republicans, keeps pressing the unpopular point. Where's the policy coordination inside the U.S. government?

Protectionist pressure on the Chinese is also rising. A trade-opening textile agreement has resulted in a temporary burst of Chinese clothing exports to the U.S. American clothing makers have had years to prepare for this, but instead they're suing the U.S. government on so-called â Å“anti-dumpingâ ? grounds. The Chinese government is meanwhile accusing the U.S., and rightly so, of reneging on the free-trade textile deal.

Why is the U.S. threatening economic warfare against China? Currency protection and trade protection not only blunt economic growth, they sour international political relations. If you add in the vexing problem of nuclear proliferation in North Korean and the historic ill-feelings between China and Japan, you've got a real geopolitical and economic mess brewing in northeast Asia. With no apparent solution in sight.

â ” Larry Kudlow, NRO's Economics Editor, is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company and author of the daily web blog, Kudlow's Money Politic$.

http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow200504191337.asp

 

[enfield]

I should also point out that accusations of the protests being "staged" or "orchestrated" are simply hogwash. A conversation with ANY Chinese person (there's a bunch of them) will put those theories to rest. The simultaneous protests and violence in South Korea can attest to this as well.   Now we can only hope that the misguided pprotestersdon't do anything outrageous to discredit the legitimate cause.

Too imagine that the protests in China could ever be anything but carefully by the government is ridiculous. I'm sure there are very real feelings in China against Japan - but since good old Mao Tse Tung killed more Chinese than the Japanese ever did, I wonder who the people would protest given the chance? If the Chinese really didn't like the Japanese, why did they let Japan become the largest investor in China?
The timing of this - with Japan making a bid for the security council, and the potential oil/gas rights - can't be a mistake. Interesting times ahead.

 

[Britney Spears]

If the Chinese really didn't like the Japanese, why did they let Japan become the largest investor in China?

If you don't count Hong Kong and the Virgin Islands, the Largest investor in China is South Korea.

The timing of this - with Japan making a bid for the security council, and the potential oil/gas rights - can't be a mistake.

What do you mean "mistake"? The Chinese have been very vocal about their opposition to Japan joinging the SC, and the textbook issue is one of their stated reasons, the protestors make it quite clear on their banners actually,  but of course you knew that.

It is true that thegoverment was probably dragging its feet to curb the protests, hence the property damage, but you can be sure that they are putting the foot down now. Pretty much the same way things work in any other third would country.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050416/ap_on_re_as/china_japan

New Anti-Japanese Protests Erupt in China

54 minutes ago World - AP Asia


By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN, Associated Press Writer

SHANGHAI, China - Chanting "Japanese pigs get out," protesters here threw stones and broke windows at Japanese restaurants and Japan's consulate as thousands of people defied government warnings and staged demonstrations Saturday against Tokyo's bid for a permanent U.N. Security Council seat


Protests were reported in two other cities. But Beijing remained calm as police stood guard at Tiananmen Square to block a planned demonstration in the heart of the capital, a day ahead of a visit by Japan's foreign minister. Meanwhile, paramilitary police surrounded the Japanese Embassy, where protesters smashed windows last weekend.


The demonstrations â ” taking place for the third weekend in a row â ” erupted despite government demands for calm, apparently stemming from fears the unrest might spin out of control and damage ties with Tokyo, which have already plunged to their lowest point in decades.


In Shanghai, as many as 20,000 protesters gathered around the Japanese consulate. Police in riot helmets kept them away from the building but let protesters throw eggs and rocks. A group of young men broke the windows of a Nissan sedan and flipped it onto its roof.


In a nearby street, protesters broke windows at about 10 Japanese-style noodle shops and bars, many of which are Chinese-owned.


The violence followed a march from City Hall to the consulate by about 5,000 people. They carried banners written in English that said "Say No to Japan in the Security Council" and chanted "Japanese pigs get out!"


A sign outside the consulate said "Be Vicious Toward Japanese Devils."


Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing have been fueled by disagreement over the Security Council, gas resources in disputed seas and new Japanese textbooks that critics say minimize Japan's wartime offenses.


About 2,000 people marched through Hangzhou, southwest of Shanghai, shouting slogans condemning Japanese militarism, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. The rally was watched by 10,000 people, it said. Hong Kong television said a few hundred people held a rally in Tianjin, east of Beijing.


In Beijing, about 400 police stood guard in Tiananmen Square, stopping passers-by apparently at random to question them. About 200 paramilitary police with riot shields guarded the Japanese Embassy.


Police also blocked a protest in the southern city of Guangzhou, shooing away people who tried to gather at a stadium.


Japan's foreign minister was to fly to Beijing Sunday for talks aimed at defusing the tensions. Japan warned its citizens in China about possible danger in advance of the protests.


Some suggested Beijing permitted the protests last weekend to support a campaign to block Tokyo's Security Council bid.


Beijing is alarmed at a proposal to give a permanent Security Council seat to Japan, which it regards as a regional rival. Such status carries veto power over U.N. actions and is now held by only five governments â ” China, the United States, Britain, France and Russia.


"I think that permitting the demonstrations provides leverage by creating a very public symbol of the depth of anger among the Chinese people toward Japan," said Murray Scot Tanner, a China specialist at the Rand Corp. in Washington.


Premier Wen Jiabao cited the protests Wednesday when he said during a visit to India that Tokyo wasn't ready for a Security Council seat until it faced up to its history of aggression.


But other Chinese officials tried to distance the government from the protesters. A Cabinet official quoted Friday by the official Xinhua News Agency denied that it supported "extremist actions."





Beijing is eager to preserve important economic relations with Japan, which has some $280 million invested in the Chinese mainland.

On Friday, police in Beijing warned that protesters could face legal action. Police appealed to the public to trust the Communist Party to deal with Japan and not to threaten "social stability."

In Shanghai, police watched the protesters but didn't stop them, though state newspapers said no one had received permission to hold a protest. At one point, police posted a sign saying "March route this way."

The march in Shanghai was the first in China's commercial capital in the recent wave of anti-Japanese protests.

In Hangzhou, southwest of Shanghai, about 3,000 people gathered outside a stadium carrying banners urging a boycott of Japanese goods, according to Hong Kong Cable TV. It said police watched but didn't interfere.

"The Chinese people are angry," said one marcher, Michael Teng, a graduate student at Donghua University. "We will play along with Japan and smile nicely at them, but they have to know they have a large, angry neighbor."

 

[Dare]

During a state visit to China, French Premier Raffarin threw support behind a law allowing China to attack Taiwan and continued to push for a lift of the EU arms embargo.

At the outset of a three-day visit to China, French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said he supported Beijing's "anti-secession" law on Taiwan, and vowed to keep pushing for an end to an EU arms embargo that could open the door for Paris to sell weapons to the Asian giant.

Raffarin also signed or finalized major business deals with Beijing valued at around $3.2 billion (2.4 billion euros).

Appearing to put his government at odds with the European Union, Raffarin said at the outset of the three day visit that Paris had no objections to the anti-secession law.

Wen Jiabao
"The anti-secession law is completely compatible with the position of France," he said in a joint press conference with his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao (photo).

'Anachronistic' embargo

At the same time, he vowed that his government would continue to push for the lifting of what he called the "anachronistic" and "discriminatory" arms embargo against China. The embargo contradicts the current "strategic partnership" between the EU and China, he added.

During his visit to Beijing on Thursday, China Eastern Airlines and Shenzhen Airlines signed a deal with the European consortium Airbus to buy a total of 10 A319/A320 planes. And China Southern completed an agreement on its purchase of five A380 super jumbos.

The deals were signed between the carriers and the European consortium's vice-president, Philippe Delmas, who is in China accompanying Raffarin on his visit.

China's Airbus business

In talking to news agencies, Delmas said the deals were "not letters of intent, but firm contracts." China is responsible for one-sixth of Airbus's annual deliveries, he noted.

France has lobbied hard for Airbus sales in China, and its close political ties with Beijing appear to have helped smooth the way for the deals.

Ahead of the visit, Raffarin had stressed his commitment to push the EU to lift its 16-year-old EU arms embargo against China by the end of June. In an interview with China's Xinhua news agency Wednesday, Raffarin reiterated the EU's decision, taken at a summit in December, to work toward lifting the arms embargo by late June.

He added that the decision should be Europe's alone, and noted that Europe is working to convince Washington of its position.

"France continues to require the lifting of the embargo and does not see what could lead the European Council to change its position on the subject," Raffarin said Thursday in a joint press conference with Wen.

Potential growth

The airplane deals penned Thursday are estimated to be worth some $500 million to $600 million, Airbus said.

Schröder and Wen also got Airbus contracts rolling, in 2004
Some 20 other previously announced contracts were also finalized during the ceremony. Taken together, the value of the deals comes to around $3.2 billion, Delmas said.

"This is a very big market ... in the first four months of the year it grew by 40 percent over the same period last year," Delmas told news agencies.


http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1559253,00.html

 

[I_am_John_Galt]

So let me get this straight. France, a democracy (sort of) decides to let a communist dictatorship - China - acquire the necessary means and legal clearance to attack a democratic neighbour that has posed no threat or problem whatsoever to France (apart from cheap electronics, maybe).

I guess that is what is known as nuanced foreign policy. Way to go, Jacques!

http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/007475.html

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

http://www.cbc.ca/storyview/MSN/world/national/2005/04/22/japan-remorse050422.html

Japan's PM expresses 'deep remorse' over wartime acts
Last Updated Fri, 22 Apr 2005 05:33:15 EDT
CBC News
JAKARTA, INDONESIA - Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi tried to ease growing tensions between his country and China on Friday by expressing "deep remorse" about what Japan did to its neighbours in the Second World War.

Koizumi gave the speech of regret as the Asia-Africa summit opened in Indonesia.
"In the past, Japan, through its colonial rule and aggression, caused tremendous damage and suffering for the people of many countries, particularly those of Asian nations," he said at the summit's opening ceremony.
"Japan squarely faces these facts of history in a spirit of humility."

Different "facts of history" contained in a Japanese school textbook have prompted vigorous protests in China over the past few weeks.
The protesters say the textbook glosses over what Japan did in the 1939-1945 war, including conducting germ warfare and running sex-slave camps for its soldiers based in other Asian nations.
The issue has gained new power because Japan is seeking a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. The Chinese demonstrators oppose the bid.

Koizumi arrived at the Jakarta summit hoping to arrange a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao.
China said Hu has a full schedule on Friday, and has not said whether a meeting with Koizumi can be slotted in.
The Japanese leader's speech was seen as an olive branch meant to clear the way for a meeting.

"With feelings of deep remorse and heartfelt apology always engraved in mind, Japan has resolutely maintained, consistently since the end of World War II, never turning into a military power but an economic power, its principle of resolving all matters by peaceful means, without recourse through the use of force," Koizumi said.
Japanese leaders have previously issued similar expressions of regret, most significantly when then-prime minister Tomiichi Murayama spoke at ceremonies marking the 50th anniversary of the end of the Second World War.

 

[Edward Campbell]

This, deeply ingrained anti-Japanese feelings which pre-date the 20th century, is one of those areas where a generally remote, mistrusted Chinese national government can show itself to be on the same wavelength as most of the Chinese people.   This is good politics.

The Chinese Communist Party is not an enduring monolith.   It has to acquire and sustain its own mandate â “ not necessarily the mandate of heaven anymore but the Party must, constantly, reinvent itself to meet the ever evolving minimum needs of the Chinese people.   The Party brass, like all the leaders of all the dynasties, stretching back thousands of years, understand that the durability of their mandate is a reflection of their capability to meet the people's needs and wants.

Most China's billion plus people are well above the base levels in Maslow's hierarchy of needs and they now want China's (and, by extension their own) position restored â “ to something akin to the early Ming dynasty, I suppose.

It is difficult, but important, to try to 'see' China and the Chinese through their eyes, or, at least, on their terms.   Our cultural norms and values are not like theirs; they do not 'see' a world of 'competing' and, therefore, roughly equal nation states.

They see a heaven (sometimes know, by some people, as the celestial kingdom) and themselves and their country as all under heaven where 'all' means everything that is worthwhile.   Their concept of being the middle kingdom means that they are between heaven and the dark, barbarous, outside world.   They are part of the celestial kingdom because they were lit by the sun of heaven while the rest â “ most of us â “ were consigned to darkness.   I know this all sounds very airy-fairy but I believe that the reason we misjudge China over and over and over again is because we insist upon seeing China as an exotic version of our Greco-Roman civilization â “ it isn't.   The Chinese people are not just like Europeans except for the shapes of the eyes, and China is not like Germany or America.

 

[TCBF]

Now THAT, is very interesting, and certainly explains the long view they can take on some events (1989 - the 200th anniversary of the French Revolution -  a question posed to a Chinese Diplomat:  "Was the French Revolution a good thing?"  His answer:  "It's too soon to tell.").

 

[Britney Spears]

to something akin to the early Ming dynasty, I suppose.

Certainly you must mean the early Qing Dynasty? The early Ming dynasty was much smaller than the present day PRC. In relative terms it was one of the weaker dynasties in Chinese history.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Certainly you must mean the early Qing Dynasty? The early Ming dynasty was much smaller than the present day PRC. In relative terms it was one of the weaker dynasties in Chinese history.

No, I meant the Ming.  Although it lost some of the territory previously held by the Yuan it remains a favourite amongst Chinese people for its restoration of Cunfucian values, the development of the South of China and finishing the Great Wall.  The early Ming, especially, saw great prosperity for many Chinese and a flowering of Chinese arts and sciences â “ very important in Chinese culture; more important than territory.

 

[Britney Spears]

No, I meant the Ming.  Although it lost some of the territory previously held by the Yuan it remains a favourite amongst Chinese people for its restoration of Cunfucian values, the development of the South of China and finishing the Great Wall.  The early Ming, especially, saw great prosperity for many Chinese and a flowering of Chinese arts and sciences â “ very important in Chinese culture; more important than territory.

Heh, well any one of those points is enough gist for 20 pages of debate, but for now let's just conclude that the Ming dynasty was an excellent source of material for some of the superlative martial arts movies released in mid 90s Hong Kong.