Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Edward Campbell]

While most people have been focused on China's military escapades in the South China Sea, the Middle Kingdom has been, relentlessly, pursuing its soft power agenda around the world, including inside America, according to this old but still pertinent article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/08/china-state-television-global-expansion

Chinese state TV unveils global expansion plan
CCTV to increase overseas staff tenfold by 2016 as English-language services spearhead Beijing's soft power push

Tania Branigan in Beijing
The Guardian

Thursday 8 December 2011

China's state broadcaster is launching a major expansion in pursuit of an international audience, increasing its overseas staff fivefold by the end of next year and almost tenfold by 2016.

China Central Television hopes to win millions of viewers in the US and Africa with English-language services produced in Washington and Nairobi. It is the latest in a multibillion-pound soft power push, as Beijing searches for a "cultural aircraft carrier" to extend its global influence.

"Global competition nowadays is not just political and economic, but cultural … Countries that take the dominant position in cultural development and own strong cultural soft power are the ones that gain the initiative in fierce international competition," argued an essay in Chinese journal Leadership Decision-Making Information last month.

Beijing has created almost 300 Confucius institutes around the world, teaching Chinese language and culture, and spent a reported £4bn on expanding state media. It has created a new English language newspaper, Russian and Arabic TV channels and a 24-hour English news station run by the Xinhua state news agency.

In a sign of how far the Chinese media reaches, you can buy the European edition of the English-language China Daily in a Sheffield and read Xinhua's Kenyan "mobile newspaper" on your phone in Nairobi.

In Boston, China Radio International has claimed the frequency previously owned by WILD-AM – "home for classic soul and R&B" – to the surprise of listeners.

Beijing has also attempted to harness the credibility of established western media, distributing 2.5m copies of China Daily's China Watch supplement in the Washington Post, New York Times, and Daily Telegraph.

The China Central Television (CCTV) expansion is arguably the most ambitious, although the broadcaster declined to answer queries about the plans. According to its website, it had 49 staff posted abroad in November 2010 – with 10 more in Hong Kong and Macau – and wants overseas staff to increase to 280 by 2012. That number should rise to 500 by 2016, across 80 bureaus.

At the heart of operations will be six hubs: two probably in London and Dubai and others in South America and the Asia Pacific region.

It is understood to have hired some 150 people, with Washington gaining 60 staff. Most will be working for the English- and other foreign-language channels. Zhong Xin, a journalism professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said Chinese media had long wanted to expand and that incidents in 2008 and 2009 – such as protests during the Olympic torch relay and riots in Xinjiang – persuaded the government of the need, because it wanted China's voice to be heard.

Dong Tiance, a journalism professor at Jinan University in southern China, said: "Official bodies, media organisations and academia have agreed that our previous external publicity has had problems. These overseas initiatives are improving this, for example, by hiring senior local journalists and experts."

CCTV has hired Jim Laurie, a former ABC and NBC broadcaster turned consultant, to advise it and has offered generous salaries for local staff.

According to his website, CCTV will broadcast at least an hour of programming daily by early 2012, and four hours by June, from its new studios. It has leased 3,300 sq m (36,000 sq ft) at a central Washington address for a reported $1.5m (£953,000).

In Nairobi, the Kenyan vice-president has said Chinese officials plan to increase CCTV's staff from 12 to 150. It has poached high-profile anchors from local networks for CCTV Africa.

Whether these efforts will be repaid in viewing figures remains to be seen. One challenge has been delivery: Xinhua's CNC World news channel was originally available only online, although it can now be watched via Sky in the UK and Time Warner Cable in the US.

CCTV services are now available via non-profit broadcaster MHz Networks in Washington and it hopes adding unconventional means of delivery – perhaps showing programmes in shops – could extend its audience.

The second challenge has been persuading people to watch. Even at home, commercial rivals often trounce state offerings and there is widespread cynicism about news content.

Chinese internet-users last week reacted angrily to remarks by CCTV's new boss, who said journalists' primary responsibility was to be a "mouthpiece". Hu Zhanfan, who gave the speech earlier this year as editor-in-chief of the official Guangming Daily, said "news workers" who defined themselves as journalism professionals instead of in terms of Communist party propaganda work were making a fundamental error.

While foreign-language state media are allowed to go further than those intended for a domestic audience, there are still tight constraints on their work.

"In general people are perhaps still suspicious about the quality of some of the news programmes," acknowledged Dong Guanpeng, a former CCTV anchor who teaches journalism at Tsinghua University in Beijing and has advised officials on media policy. But he said CCTV could reach an audience of opinion-formers on China to begin with and that non-news programming, such as cultural shows, would increase its appeal.

Arnold Zeitlin, a veteran correspondent turned consultant who teaches journalism at the Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, said numerous countries had attempted similar media pushes unsuccessfully. He questioned the point of spending "huge gobs of money" on the media expansion without addressing issues such as China's human rights record.

"I would be surprised, if not disappointed, if most people buy it," he said. "To change China's image it is necessary to alter Chinese policy and outlook."

Additional research by Han Cheng

There is more about WILD AM (Boston) here.

 

[a_majoor]

Questions about the accuracy of Chinese economic figures have been going on for years, this groups believes they have the "right" figures and that China has overstated economic growth (and future projections). Since the effects of compounding are quite reliant on the initial ROI as well as the length of time the projections are being made for, this could suggest that the ideas that China will rapidly overtake the US economy, or Chinese economic growth will "save the world" are misguided at best.

Without more transparency, the real killer of long term Chinese economic growth will be the gradual drying up of foreign investment, as people stop believing "official" figures and can no longer make accurate forecasts or plans because of this.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/12/18/how-real-is-chinas-growth-gdp-alternatives-shed-light/

How Real Is China’s Growth?

By BOB DAVIS

Perhaps the most common question about China’s phenomenal record of growthis:  Is it real?

Even China’s premier, Li Keqiang, has expressed doubts about China’s GDP results. In a 2007 discussion with the U.S. ambassador to China, which both thought was private, Mr. Li called GDP a “man-made and therefore unreliable” statistic.

Mr. Li, at the time the Communist Party chief of Liaoning province, said he looked at stats on electricity, rail cargo and loans to get a better gauge of economic activity, according to a copy of the ambassador’s memo, which was made public by WikiLeaks.

Economists have tried to put together alternative indices. One of the most thorough is produced by Capital Economics, which releases what it calls the China Activity Proxy. The data series started in 2009, so it has a track record. It’s published monthly — unlike GDP data, which is released quarterly.

The London-based research group uses one of Mr. Li’s favorite indicators, electricity output, as a proxy for industrial activity.  It adds four others – freight shipment (a broad measure of economic activity), floor space under construction (real estate); passenger travel (service sector); and cargo volume (international trade).

“They are relatively low profile (statistics), so should be subject to fewer questions about data manipulation,” Capital Economics explained.

For the most part, Capital Economics finds that its CAP index generally jibes with China’s GDP numbers, especially in 2009 and 2010. But in the last two years, its CAP index suggests growth may have been 1 to 2 percentage points below the official GDP numbers.

What’s up? Mark Williams, a China economist at the firm, says official GDP numbers reflect output data and are “skewed toward what is going on in industry.”

CAP data, he says, also capture “harder to measure” parts of the economy.

Over the past two years, he says, big firms have benefited disproportionately from a surge in lending. CAP data suggests that service-sector firms may be hurting more than the official GDP numbers would suggest.

As for 2014, Mr. Williams is at the low end of estimates for GDP growth: He forecasts 7% growth, down from an expected 7.6% this year. Some others are forecasting growth of 8% or so, figuring that the rebound in global growth will help Chinese exports and that the Chinese government will do what’s needed to keep the economy from slowing too quickly — whatever officials say about their commitment to reform.

 

[Edward Campbell]

An interesting Infographic reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Amazing Maps:

The important past is in orange ... and the orange would be much, much bigger is the stats showed the EU as a single trading block, because it too, along with Canada and the USA, would be orange. EU members are yellow because they trade more amongst themselves, being a common market, than with outsiders.

 

[CougarKing]

The escalation of a carrier "arms race" in East Asia? This new class of ship will be a larger version of China's current aircraft carrier Liaoning.

Aside from China's lone carrier Liaoning, Japan has its ambiguously-named "helicopter destroyers" of the Hyuga and Izumo classes, that are carriers in all but name. Meanwhile South Korea has its Dokdo class assault ships that are similar to American LHAs. Last, but not least, Thailand currently operates its Spanish-built carrier Chakri Naruebet.

Chinese media reports of plans to build a 110,000 ton 'super aircraft carrier' to rival US naval power

 

CHINA has declared it is building a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of a size to rival the biggest in United States naval service in the first move of a major new arms race.

Chinese website qianzhan.com cites "top People's Liberation Army" sources as saying the 110,000-ton aircraft carrier should be launched by 2020.

"By that time, China will be able to confront the most advanced US carrier-based fighter jets in high sea," the Chinese-language article reads.

The news follows rising tensions in the South and East China Seas where the most recent incident involved a near-collision with a US cruiser shadowing China's first aircraft carrier, the refurbished Liaoning which was purchased from Ukraine.

…….

China's first homegrown aircraft carrier will be a larger version of Liaoning. The first of two such vessels is due to hit the water in 2015.

The design is reportedly based on drawings from the former Soviet Union of a nuclear-powered, 80,000 ton vessel capable of carrying 60 aircraft.

……

Source: heraldsun.com.au

 

[tomahawk6]

Evidently the PLAN wants amphibious assault ships  like the US LPH. I don't see the PRC economy being robust enough to support all this military spending.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/lha-newcon.htm

 

[Rifleman62]

Unlike the US economy!

 

[CougarKing]

China just came out with their own home-built Blackhawk copy, dubbed the Z20 "Copyhawk", which is externally similar to the 24 or so H60 Blackhawks sold to China in the 1980s.

Aviation Week

Chinese Military Utility Helo Makes First Flight


By Bradley Perrett perrett@aviationweek.com
Source: AWIN First
December 24, 2013

A Chinese military utility helicopter roughly
equivalent to the Sikorsky H-60 made its first
flight on Dec. 23, state media report.

The helicopter, with the unconfirmed
designation Z-20, is a 10-metric-ton (22,000
lb.) aircraft suitable for operation from high-
altitude fields, China Central Television says.
For almost three decades, China has relied on
24 UH-60 Black Hawks bought in the 1980s
for such operations.


The Z-20 is externally similar to the Sikorsky
helicopter. The body is low relative to its
height, and the undercarriage has a tailwheel
arrangement.

It can be taken for granted that Chinese
engineers, tasked with building an aircraft
similar to the H-60 and having samples
available, will have referred closely to the
U.S. design as they drew up their own.
Further, the Chinese military may simply
regard the H-60 configuration as highly
suitable for the military utility mission.
A notable difference is the five-blade rotor;
the H-60’s rotor has four blades.

The first flight took place at in northeastern
China, the television network says. That
strongly suggests that the aircraft is a
product of Harbin Aircraft, part of Avic rotary
wing division Avicopter.

A 10-ton military helicopter should have
much the same potential applications as the
H-60 and NH Industries NH90 offer to
Western users, including battlefield transport
and antisubmarine warfare. Depending on
how far the design is compromised by its
primarily military functions, it may also be
useful for Chinese civil operators, but cannot
have airworthiness certification recognized by
Western aviation authorities, limiting its
salability abroad.

The 10-ton category has been a notable gap
in Avicopter’s increasingly complete range of
helicopters, which runs from 1 to 13 tons
gross weight, including several types in
development.

(posted in its entirety as it is quite short)

 

[tomahawk6]

The Blackhawk helo has been a successful design for the US military.Copying the design is the ultimate flattery.

 

[CougarKing]

While China easing its one-child policy is old news, one should also note the other big change in this article below.

Will the end of these labor camps, known to be outside the formal prison system, means China is edging closer towards a system where rule of law prevails more?

CNN

China eases one-child policy, ends re-education through labor camps

Hong Kong (CNN) -- China's top legislature approved resolutions to officially amend its controversial one-child policy and end re-education through labor camps.

(...)- SNIPPED

Re-education camps abolished

China had hinted as early as January that it would terminate the controversial re-education through labor camps.

The notorious camps date back to the 1950s when the new Communist regime sought to silence its enemies to consolidate its power.

Critics say the camps, which fall outside of the formal prison system, are often misused to persecute government dissidents, including intellectuals, human rights activists and followers of banned spiritual groups like the Falun Gong.

China's forced labor camps: One woman's fight for justice

The abolition of labor camps called "laojiao" goes into effect Saturday. Xinhua reported that the people still serving in re-education through labor camps will be set free.

Human rights organizations say the changes to the labor camps may just be cosmetic. Amnesty International told CNN earlier this month that the labor camps are being replaced by other types of facilities such as "legal education camps" or renamed as drug rehabilitation camps.

 

[CougarKing]

The latest bold challengers against China's police state: the Southern Street movement. 

Agence-France Presse via Yahoo News

China activists push limit with demands to end 'dictatorship'

By:  Carol Huang, Agence France-Presse
December 30, 2013 11:46 AM


GUANGZHOU - Their banners have urged an end to China's "dictatorship," scorned the regime as "rogue" and dared leaders to disclose their assets as a step against graft -- all dangerous calls under Communist Party rule.

The Southern Street Movement, a loose network of laymen-activists in Guangdong province, is testing China's limits with overtly political demands and ambitions to inspire placard-waving protests nationwide.

The province has a tradition of defiance -- a trade hub long exposed to the outside world, it was the birthplace of Sun Yat-sen, the revolutionary who ended millennia of imperial rule in China in 1911.

Yet the dissent-wary government has mounted a growing crackdown on activists this year and a smattering of participants have been detained.

Protesters must overcome their fear, says Xie Wenfei, a 37-year-old from central China whose business card declares him a "Southern Street Movement activist" and proclaims: "If you see injustice and remain silent, you have sided with evil."

He raised a sign calling for an end to "one-party dictatorship" in the provincial capital Guangzhou in September, earning himself a month in detention.

"Lots of friends called me to say if you pull out this banner then for sure you'll be arrested," he said. "But I had to do the right thing. I told them someone has to do this.

"First I wanted to tell my like-minded friends to break through the fear.

"Second I wanted to tell the Communist Party that the way they are doing things cannot last. They have lost their legitimacy in the eyes of the people and the law."

The movement started in 2011 with monthly protests at a park, said Wang Aizhong, a closely involved 37-year-old businessman, and they organized mini-rallies perhaps dozens of times this year.

Many have called for officials to reveal their assets, for detained activists to be released, and for an end to one-party rule.

"We see the Southern Street Movement as a resistance movement having no organization, no leader, and no formal program," Wang said, adding that they wanted to "inspire the rest of the country."

"There is no one single or set demand, but a lot of the political demands are aimed at one goal, which is to end this dictatorship."

The movement has mostly attracted the migrant workers who have flocked to Guangdong, a manufacturing powerhouse and China's most prosperous province.

More people were drawn in following January protests supporting the liberal Guangzhou-based newspaper, Southern Weekly, after its new year editorial was censored.

'I have never done anything wrong'

Guangzhou has long been considered less strictly controlled than much of China.

It has had greater contact with the rest of the world as one of the first Chinese cities opened in recent centuries to foreigners -- who knew it as Canton -- and Guangdong neighbors the former British colony of Hong Kong.

"There is a perception that protest is just slightly more possible in the south," said Eva Pils, an associate professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

"More people in the south are willing to take that one further step and actually put up a banner that directly targets 'one-party dictatorship,' that directly calls for constitutional government, freedom, human rights, democracy."

But the consequences of activism in China can be severe. In neighboring Jiangxi province three members of the similarly loose, decentralized New Citizens Movement face up to to five years' jail for demanding officials disclose their assets.

Such grassroots groups are at the opposite end of the activist spectrum from internationally high-profile figures such as Nobel laureate Liu Xiaobo, artist Ai Weiwei or blind lawyer Chen Guangcheng.

They are among a number of Chinese looking to have their voices heard, including online. But the groups' numbers remain tiny and it is impossible to judge their support in a heavily controlled society.

Southern Street member Jia Ping, 24, lost his factory job after posting political messages online, and was detained for 20 days after displaying signs at a train station including one proclaiming "the Communist party does not represent the people."

"We will definitely keep going, as far as we can," he said.

In August officials detained respected Guangzhou activist Yang Maodong, known by his pen name Guo Feixiong.

He finished a five-year sentence in 2011 and now faces public order charges carrying a similar maximum penalty.

Authorities see him as a ringleader, said his lawyer Sui Muqing, citing an editorial in the party-run Global Times criticizing Guo and another activist, a rare reference to such figures.

"They pose a danger to the current social governance system and long-term social stability," the paper warned. "Confronting the authorities has become their way of life."

Migrant Xie said his parents want him to stop his activities.

"Of course they are afraid," he said. "I just ask them to trust me. I'm over 30 years old and have never done anything wrong."

 

[Edward Campbell]

In my opinion, what really matters in China is the anti-crruption campaign. Corruption remains the most significant impediment to growth and development. No one can say, with authority, how much of China';s productivity is sacrificed to corruption but I would not be surprised if it totals two percent of GDP growth each year, at a minimum.

Traditionally, in modern China, the third plenum of the Central Committee of the CCP is the one which sets the agenda for the reign of a supreme leader. This one, held in November 2013, is being critiqued mostly for its impact on business but, to my mind, the real news is on two fronts:

    1. Xi Jinping, himself, will take the lead in the latest anti-corruption drive; and

    2. President Xi is taking a leaf from President Barack Obama's book and playing the "man of the people" card by joining the masses in a steamed bun shop.

Now, where a president chooses to propagandize by eating a hamburger or a steamed bun may seem like a small thing but, in the case of Xi Jinping, it is sending shock waves through the bureaucracy, I'm told by a source I consider to be reliable, because it signals that he is building a popular base of support in order to cut the props out from under many, many senior party members who are awash in corruption.

 

[CougarKing]

ERC,

Didn't you mention earlier in the thread about the MRs being re-organized?

China mulls revamping military regions to boost superiority in South and East China Seas: report
By: Agence France-Presse
January 1, 2014 6:54 PM

TOKYO - China is considering reorganizing its seven military regions into five in a bid to respond more swiftly to a crisis, the Japanese daily Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Wednesday.

The news comes amid rising tensions over Beijing's territorial claims in the region, with China and Japan squaring off over a chain of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea.

Each of the new military regions will create a joint operations command that controls the army, navy and air force as well as a strategic missile unit, the major daily said citing senior Chinese military officials and other sources.

The planned revamp would mark a shift from the current defence-oriented military that relies mainly on the army to one that ensures more mobile and integrated management of the army, navy, air force and strategic missile units, Yomiuri said.

"It is a proactive measure with eyes on counteracting the Japan-US alliance," the daily quoted one of the officials as saying.

(...)

Agence-France Presse via Yahoo News

 

[Edward Campbell]

Remember when Japanese cars were on the rise?

At first the Japanese produced junk but two things happened:

    1. W. Edwards Deming went to Japan, in the late 1940s, and preached his mantra of quality control.* The Japanese listened and learned; and

    2. The American automakers, beginning in the 1950s, paid less and less attention to (eventually ignored) quality and worked on planned obsolescence, or whatever it was called.

The result was a near-death experience for the US auto industry, a globally dominant position for Japan and lower and lower (relative) car costs for consumers. But the big change was that Honda and Toyota are now as common as Chevy and Ford.

In the Christmas issue of the The Economist we find an interesting article which suggests that the same phenomenon is occurring now with Chinese heavy construction equipment, a field currently dominated by a handful of American, European and Korean manufacturers. The article says that "a range of Chinese-made diggers," which independent tests "found ... to be sturdy and high-performing ... [and which] also have the advantage of being cheap, will soon be invading building sites across the globe."

That is, I suggest, at least as important as Chinese military reorganizations.

____
* Denning's philosophy can be described as:

When people and organizations focus primarily on quality, defined by the following ratio,
                    Results of work efforts
    Quality = -------------------------
                            Total costs
quality tends to increase and costs fall over time.

 

[CougarKing]

While your point about emphasis on improving quality is well-taken, doesn't a smaller number of MRs only mean that their command structure has become more centralized?

While eliminating redundancies- such as in higher level headquarter units, etc.- does indeed cut costs as seen in a number of US examples (e.g. the US Air National Guard-USAF Reserves merger thread), wouldn't losing these redundancies make the PLA less capable in a future war where an adversary with air superiority would target such command structures?  Since air strikes with precision-guided munitions also seek to decapitate the leadership structure, so therefore wouldn't redundancy be needed especially if some command units are hit?

 

[Edward Campbell]

While your point about emphasis on improving quality is well-taken, doesn't a smaller number of MRs only mean that their command structure has become more centralized?

While eliminating redundancies- such as in higher level headquarter units, etc.- does indeed cut costs as seen in a number of US examples (e.g. the US Air National Guard-USAF Reserves merger thread), wouldn't losing these redundancies make the PLA less capable in a future war where an adversary with air superiority would target such command structures?  Since air strikes with precision-guided munitions also seek to decapitate the leadership structure, so therefore wouldn't redundancy be needed especially if some command units are hit?

Sorry, I don't see the machinations of the Chinese (or US or Canadian) militaries as being very important.

While a war between China and the USA is certainly possible it would represent a massive, monumental strategic failure for both countries.

No one with there brains the gods gave to green peppers is going to attack China ~ OK, I admit that several hundred, maybe even a few thousand US legislators, admirals, generals and pundits fall into that category. Equally, no one is going to attack America unless they are, seriously and deeply, mentally ill ~ and several thousand "leaders," many of them Arab and West Asian and so on, and a few of them Chinese, too, fall into that category.

China is aiming to win its "place in the sun" through soft power. I'm still guessing that it will manage that. It isn't that the US is declining a whole lot, although it is, from its pinnacle circa the 1950s, it is just that China is, inexorably, gaining ground.

 

[a_majoor]

While your point about emphasis on improving quality is well-taken, doesn't a smaller number of MRs only mean that their command structure has become more centralized?

While eliminating redundancies- such as in higher level headquarter units, etc.- does indeed cut costs as seen in a number of US examples (e.g. the US Air National Guard-USAF Reserves merger thread), wouldn't losing these redundancies make the PLA less capable in a future war where an adversary with air superiority would target such command structures?  Since air strikes with precision-guided munitions also seek to decapitate the leadership structure, so therefore wouldn't redundancy be needed especially if some command units are hit?

There are arguments to support either side, but in general, reducing "overhead" is the more desirable course of action, since the flow of information is quicker and less "static" gets into the information flow, not to mention the resource budget can be reallocated or reduced with lower overhead. Of course, the counter argument is that increasing centralization creates a single massive bottleneck, and organizations which move in that direction become brittle and inflexible, as well as falling prey to the "Local Knowledge Problem". F.A.Hayek noted that the person "on the ground" could note and react to elusive changing local conditions immediately, while these conditions would change by the time the information was relayed up the chain of command, a decision made and orders dispatched back down the line. (This is why command economies fail, and provides a reason that "Manouevre warfare" is theoretically far more powerful and effective than directive command).

I might argue that the real way to go in the 21rst century would be to minimize the numbers of headquarters (and internal layers inside headquarters) and evolve towards "Scale Free" network organizations. The Internet, your immune system and many other complex, non linear systems are organized along these lines (in general, they are fractal and similar in layout at any scale). Organizations and networks designed or evolved around these principles are quite robust and can function even when large portions are damaged.

The work around the Chinese seem to have chosen is "Unrestricted Warfare", which expands the modalities, spatial and temporal dimensions of warfare. As Edward notes above, the Chinese are working to project influence with "soft power", but are also expanding with economic engagement around the world, the "String of Pearls" dual purpose harbour facilities across the Indian Ocean, vastly expanded cyberwar capabilities and various forms of currency manipulation, any or all fo which can be harnessed to unsettle or disrupt potential opponents, perhaps without them even realizing they are "under attack" at first.

The fact that most militaries are not trained or equipped to recognize these sorts of challenges makes this potentially more dangerous (is the crippling bank crash that causes our forces to be deployed in a DOMOP a local event or a means by an enemy to distract and pin down our forces while they do something else?). Unrestricted warfare is an unsettling thing to think about.

 

[CougarKing]

Those Uighurs who were in GITMO- as well as the issue of rendition to Eastern European nations- again in the news:

Military.com

China Slams US Sending Uighur Ex-Inmates to Europe

Associated Press | Jan 02, 2014


BEIJING - The Chinese government on Thursday criticized a U.S. decision to release three members of an ethnic minority from China who had been held at Guantanamo Bay to the Central European country of Slovakia.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said China had sought the repatriation of the Uighur men, who are considered by Chinese authorities to be terrorist suspects. The U.S. said earlier this week it had released the men to Slovakia.

"They pose threats not only to China's state security, but also to the security of the country which receives them," Qin said. "China hopes the relevant countries can earnestly perform their international obligations, refrain from offering asylum to terrorists, and transfer them to China at an early date."

The men were among about two dozen Uighurs captured in 2001 after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and kept at the U.S. base in Cuba. U.S. authorities did not turn them over to Beijing on fear they could be tortured.

The other Uighurs had been released to different parts of the world, but the last three men - Yusef Abbas, Saidullah Khalik and Hajiakbar Abdul Ghuper - had insisted they be sent to places where they could be closer to Uighur communities, according to Rushan Abbas, a Uighur-American translator who worked on the case.

Their release is a step toward the closure of the Guantanamo Bay prison.

 

[a_majoor]

A revolution of rising expectations? This has been commented upon in the past, especially ERC's suggestion that the current "Red Dynasty" can only maintain the "Mandate of Heaven" if they continue to provide rising living standards to most Chinese people.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/china-may-face-a-revolution-of-rising-expectations/article/2541371

China may face a revolution of rising expectations
BY MICHAEL BARONE | JANUARY 1, 2014 AT 7:48 PM

In 1793 the envoy Lord Macartney appeared before the Qianlong emperor in Beijing and asked for British trading rights in China. “Our ways have no resemblance to yours, and even were your envoy competent to acquire some rudiments of them, he could not transport them to your barbarous land,” the long-reigning (1736-96) emperor replied in a letter to King George III.

“We possess all things,” he went on. “I set no value on strange objects and have no use for your country’s manufactures.”

The emperor had a point. China at that time, according to economic historian Angus Maddison, had about one-third of world population and accounted for about one-third of world economic production.

Today’s China of course has a different attitude toward trade. Since Deng Xiaoping’s market reforms started in 1978, it has had enormous growth based on manufacturing exports.

In between Qianlong and Deng, China went through tough times. The Taiping rebellion (1849-64), decades of Western domination, the Chinese revolution (1911-27), the War with Japan (1931-45) and Mao Zedong's Communist policies (1949-76) each resulted in the deaths of millions.

The Chinese ruling party and, apparently, the Chinese people see the economic growth of the last 35 years as a restoration of China’s rightful central place in the world. And note that that period is longer than the 27 years of Mao’s rule.

American supporters of engagement with China, including the architect of the policy, Henry Kissinger, agree and have expressed the hope that an increasingly prosperous China will move toward democracy and peaceful coexistence.

Those hopes, as James Mann argued in his 2007 book The China Fantasy, have not been and seem unlikely to be realized.

Other China scholars like Arthur Waldron and Gordon Chang have predicted that China’s Communist party rulers will be swept from power.

That nearly happened, many say, in June 1989, when protesters gathered in Tiananmen Square, the universally recognized center of the nation. But Deng sharply overruled those who urged propitiation and ordered the massacre of unknown numbers.

Repression seems to have worked. The Tianamen massacre came only 11 years after the beginning of Deng’s reforms. Since then another 24 years have passed, with the regime still in power.

But perhaps not secure in that power. In 2013 leading members of the Politburo recommended that underlings read Alexis de Tocqueville’s The Ancien Regime and the French Revolution.

It’s an intriguing choice. Tocqueville, reflecting on the revolution that killed his fellow aristocrats and family members, argued that the uprising came only when the old regime undertook reform and conditions improved — the revolution of rising expectations.

And he argued that the revolution was largely destructive, increasing the centralization of the royalist regime. “The old order provided the Revolution with many of its methods; all the Revolution added to these was a savagery peculiar to itself.”

The relevance to China seems obvious. Regime members, like French aristocrats, no longer believe in their own ideology but cling to power. The Chinese people have come to expect rapidly rising living standards, and may abandon the regime if it doesn’t produce.

Regime elites must be careful, like Deng in 1989, or the rulers will lose everything and chaos will be unleashed on China.

China’s rulers have also been circulating a six-part TV documentary blaming the collapse of the Soviet Union on Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms and softness. Message: Avoid democracy or political freedom.

All this, writes the Wall Street Journal's Jeremy Page, is “part of an ideological campaign launched by China's new leader, Xi Jinping, to re-energize the party and enforce discipline among its members.”

Another part of that campaign was the prosecution of Chongqing party leader Bo Xilai and his wife for corruption and murder. China’s party leaders and crony capitalists have become ostentatiously and unpopularly rich. The prosecution was a warning to lie low.

If China’s leaders seem determined to block democracy internally, they have also been moving to rally nationalist feeling by aggressive moves against China’s neighbors.

The latest, last month, was the declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone covering islands claimed by China but held by Japan and South Korea.

China’s assertive stance has got its neighbors seeking closer ties and protection from the United States. Armed clashes — even war — seem possible.

China continues to grow. But democracy and peaceful coexistence may be farther away than ever.

 

[CougarKing]

The PLA-N carrier Liaoning returns to China after a period of trials and working up in the South China Sea:

China's aircraft carrier returns from S China Sea voyage
Xinhua  2014-1-1 23:13:27
By Agencies


China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned to its homeport in north China Wednesday after completing a series of scientific tests and training programs in the South China Sea.

According to a source with the Navy of China's People's Liberation Army, the aircraft carrier underwent a comprehensive test of its combat system and conducted a formation practice during its 37-day voyage.

Such tests have "attained the anticipated objectives", the source says.

Liaoning's combat and power system and its seagoing capability have been further tested during the trip. "All tests and training programs went well as scheduled", according to the source.

The Chinese Navy dispatched aircraft, naval vessels and submarines to participate in the tests.

The Liaoning is China's only aircraft carrier in operation. It was refitted based on an unfinished carrier of the former Soviet Union. The refitted carrier was delivered to the navy on September 25, 2012.


Global Times

Plus more on the J15s embarked:

Roar of J-15 fighter is melody for operator on the Liaoning
People's Daily Online   
11:02, January 01, 2014

As one of the two takeoff assistants, Zhang Naigang has to make a crucial, split-second decision on whether a J-15 can take off, based on information from the pilot and crew. The crews face dangers as the state-of-the-art weaponry flashed by, just a few meters from where they stood.

The Liaoning's runway is about one-fifteenth the length of a conventional land-based one, and a jet's flame trail can reach a temperature of 2,000 degrees Celsius. If a jet strays slightly from the runway, the flame can blow the nearby takeoff assistants into the sea or simply roast them alive.

Dozens of gestures were designed to facilitate the J-15's maneuvers. Further refinement of the gestures is ongoing. For example, to signal that it's safe for the jet to take off, the assistants originally gestured in the direction of the deck with two fingers. Safety concerns saw the gesture abandoned and replaced by a horizontally raised arm.

The Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier, has served for a whole year in the People's Liberation Army, since it was commissioned into the Chinese navy on Sept 25, 2012, after being completely rebuilt and undergoing sea trials. It made China the 10th country in the world to have an aircraft carrier in active service.

The aircraft carrier provides three different ways of take-off: the ejection takeoff, the ski-jump takeoff, and the vertical takeoff. The Liaoning can carry fixed-wing aircraft as well as helicopters as designed. The fixed-wing aircraft adopts the way of ski-jump takeoff.[/font]



People's Daily

 

[CougarKing]

For those unaware, the Professor "Zod" mentioned in the article below refers to a fictional, ruthless villain named General Zod, in the Superman comics/movie:

Why China Can’t Rise Quietly

China wants to achieve its goals short of war while reaping the propaganda harvest it would get from war.

James-R-Holmes_q
By James R. Holmes
January 02, 2014

Diplomat.com

There’s a hidden dialogue between Clausewitz and Sun Tzu that may help clarify the lordly attitude China takes in quarrels with Asian neighbors that defy its will. It’s all about the narrative spun for target audiences, the Chinese populace most of all. Think about it. Negotiating with ‘furriners’ entails more tedium than glory. Diplomacy is dull and drawn-out and produces gradual, amorphous results. It fires few passions among those who matter. Combat is brief and exciting and, when done right, yields immediate, concrete results. It’s a focal point for national pride. China thus appears conflicted. It wants to achieve its goals short of war while reaping the propaganda harvest it would get from war.

It’s not enough, then, for Beijing to get its way quietly in international controversies. It wants to be seen compelling others to do its bidding. For dramatic value, that’s the best substitute for victory.

It’s also a slipshod way to get to yes. Going out of your way to embarrass others is bass-ackwards from normal diplomatic practice, where the Golden Rule is never to humiliate your opposite number. Corollaries include keeping things private and non-confrontational. Following these rules, though, demands a modicum of empathy. CCP leaders either don’t grasp, or don’t care, that putting foreign officials on the spot before their constituents is a tactic sure to backfire. Unfortunately, Professor Zod seems to have been teaching Negotiations 101 when Xi Jinping & Co. took the class. Neither empathy nor tact are hallmarks of Chinese foreign relations.

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