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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

The Uyghurs are, now, actually a minority in Xinjiang Province Autonomous Region (it's status is slightly different from other provinces, it has, like Tibet, some extra attributes). Han Chinese constitute a majority - the Sinification programme has been going on for several years and it aims to, eventually, nullify the Uyghurs.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
The Uyghurs are, now, actually a minority in Xinjiang Province Autonomous Region (it's status is slightly different from other provinces, it has, like Tibet, some extra attributes). Han Chinese constitute a majority - the Sinification programme has been going on for several years and it aims to, eventually, nullify the Uyghurs.

The Uyghurs won't go quietly.
 
tomahawk6 said:
The Uyghurs won't go quietly.

You're right. This is, pretty much, the first time in about 3,000 years that the Chinese have met barbarians (in their minds) who cannot be absorbed, bought with the delights of towns and culture, and, and, and ... Islam poses direct challenges to both the Chinese idea of China's own cultural superiority and to the CCP's idea of its mandate to rule China. My guess is that China wins, but it will not be pretty.
 
Taiwan's outpost of Itu Aba/Taiping dao in the South China Sea will never fly a mainland Chinese flag as long as Taiwan opposition parties such as the DPP have something to say about it...

Reuters

As Taiwan beefs up prized South China Sea outpost, barely a peep from China
BY MICHAEL GOLD AND GREG TORODE
TAIPEI/HONG KONG Sun May 25, 2014 5:56pm EDT

(Reuters) - Taiwan is building a $100 million port next to an airstrip on the lone island it occupies in the disputed South China Sea, a move that is drawing hardly any flak from the most assertive player in the bitterly contested waters - China.

The reason, say military strategists, is that Itu Aba could one day be in China's hands should it ever take over Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province.

While Itu Aba, also called Tai Ping, is small, no other disputed island has such sophisticated facilities. Its runway is the biggest of only two in the Spratly archipelago that straddles the South China Sea, and the island has its own fresh water source.

"Taipei knows it is the only claimant that (China) will not bother, so it is free to upgrade its facilities on Tai Ping without fear of criticism from China," said Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the Hawaii-based East-West Center think tank.

"China would protect Taiwan's garrisons if necessary."


The upgraded facilities on Itu Aba should be finished late next year or earlier, officials from Taiwan's defense and transport ministries said, replacing an existing wharf that can only handle small vessels.

That would give Taiwan a port able to accommodate 3,000-tonne naval frigates and coastguard cutters while improvements are being made to the 1,200-metre (3,940-foot) long runway for its Hercules C-130 transport planes, they told Reuters.
(...EDITED)
 
There is a report (breaking news) that "At 4 pm May 26, about 40 Chinese fishing boats surrounded a group of Vietnamese fishing ships in an area about 17 nautical miles south-southwest from the location where China’s oil rig Haiyang Shiyou 981 has been placed illegally since May 1 ... Suddenly, Chinese fishing boat #11209 crashed into Vietnamese fishing ship DNa 90152 with 10 fishermen on board ... The hard hit sank the local ship and some Vietnamese fishing boats operating nearby managed to save all the 10 crew members."
 
So now we have Non-Chinese sailors acting against Vietnamese in disputed waters ......

Previously it was Non-Russians ....

I wonder how many more "renegades" we are going to see cropping up.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
There is a report (breaking news) that "At 4 pm May 26, about 40 Chinese fishing boats surrounded a group of Vietnamese fishing ships in an area about 17 nautical miles south-southwest from the location where China’s oil rig Haiyang Shiyou 981 has been placed illegally since May 1 ... Suddenly, Chinese fishing boat #11209 crashed into Vietnamese fishing ship DNa 90152 with 10 fishermen on board ... The hard hit sank the local ship and some Vietnamese fishing boats operating nearby managed to save all the 10 crew members."

ERC,
Don't you think this post and Kirkhill's post above better belongs in the China vs. Vietnam: territorial disputes, etc. thread?

Anyways, another rival claimant enters the fray for the South China Sea. If China implements this crazy ADIZ over the South China Sea, it will only serve to further unite her neighbours against her.

National Interest

The Next South China Sea Crisis: China vs. Indonesia?
Jack Greig
May 23, 2014

The seabed around the Natuna Islands is gas-rich and falls partly within the boundaries of China’s so-called nine-dash line in the South China Sea. But it’s also a part of Indonesia's maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Indonesia has asserted on a number occasions that there's no dispute with China around the EEZ because China’s audacious claim has no basis in international law. But Beijing has simply refused to respond consistently or clearly to Jakarta's multiple requests for clarification.

At the least, there's a conflict over the interpretation of the 1982 UNCLOS - and the legal concept that 'land dominates the seas' - between China and Indonesia.

Speaking in February after the implementation of China's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa warned, "we have firmly told China we will not accept a similar zone if it is adopted in the South China Sea".

Even though both China and Indonesia currently enjoy a remarkable stint of amicable relations, tensions in the South China Sea are continuing to simmer. So Jakarta should maintain its push for clarity with an official agreement that excises the Natuna Islands EEZ from all iterations of the nine-dash line map.

(...EDITED)
 
tomahawk6 said:
It could breathe new life into SEATO.

Sorry for the off-topic, but...

Wouldn't this current Thailand coup business complicate things though? Thailand was one of the 8 original members of SEATO; did any of Thailand's past 10 coups (besides this current one and the last one in 2006) occur when SEATO was still around?

-----------------------------------------

It also says at the thread link above that the US will be withdrawing military support for Thailand due to the coup.

Furthermore, while the Thai military uses mostly US-made military equipment, Thailand has also bought military equipment from China such as those four Chinese-built Type 53 Frigates the Royal Thai Navy operates. Wouldn't suspending military aid may cause Thailand to look to China for military support?
 
Does anyone have a map showing how all the various national ADIZs overlap?

One acquaintance suggested to me that China's (problematic) ADIZ was, in fact, designed to overlap the others because they all intrude into China's area of influence.
 
Here's what the next PLA base in the South China Sea will look like; it seems to be almost as large as the massive Chep Lap Kok airport in Hong Kong.  :o

[size=18pt]Design of China's Military Base to Be Built on Reef in South China Sea
Posted: May 25, 2014


design-of-military-base-to-be-built-on-disputed-island.jpg



design-of-various-functional-areas-on-the-military-base.jpg



The No. 9 Design & Research Institute of China State Shipbuilding Corporation recently displayed on its official website its proposed design of an artificial island to be built on a reef in the South China Sea. It aims at providing a reserve of designs for an artificial island China may build there.



Source
 
To think I was just getting used to WeChat as a way to keep in better touch with former work contacts back in China...  >:(

CTV News


China cracks down on instant messaging services
By Louise Watt (Associated Press) | Updated May 29, 2014 - 3:13am

BEIJING — China is targeting popular smartphone-based instant messaging services in a monthlong campaign to crack down on the spreading of rumors and what it calls infiltration of hostile forces, in the latest move restricting online freedom of expression.

Such services incorporate social media functions that allow users to post photos and updates to their friends, or follow the feeds of companies, social groups or celebrities, and — more worryingly for the government — intellectuals, journalists and activists who comment on politics, law and society. They also post news reports shunned by mainstream media.

Some accounts attract hundreds of thousands of followers.

The official Xinhua News Agency said the crackdown on people spreading rumors and information related to violence, terrorism and pornography started Tuesday and would target public accounts on services including WeChat, run by Tencent Holdings Ltd, which has surged in popularity in the last two years.

People can subscribe to feeds from public accounts without first exchanging greeting messages, as must be done with private ones, which typically link friends and acquaintances.

Tencent and other companies did not answer calls or immediately respond to emailed requests for comment.

(...EDITED)
 
2 academics weigh in that conflict over the South China Sea is still likely despite trade links between China and her neighbours:

Deeper trade relations cannot stop war over South China Sea -expert
By Camille Diola (philstar.com)
May 28, 2014

MANILA, Philippines - An armed conflict between China and the United States' regional partners including the Philippines, over the South China Sea is not unlikely despite the countries' deep economic ties, an Australian security expert said.

Alan Dupont, professor of International Security at University of New South Wales, said in a statement that China may choose to risk financially as it seeks to dominate the strategic waterway claimed by its neighbors and challenges the US' pre-eminence in the region.


"It should not be forgotten that Britain and Germany's extensive trade ties in the early 20th century did not prevent them going to war in 1914. It would be wrong to conclude that deepening levels of trade interdependence are a guarantee or peace. Resource insecurity is another important driver of China's muscular unilateralism. In a little more than two decades the country has moved from a net exporter to importing more than 55 per cent of its oil. Even China's enormous ­reserves of coal are insufficient to meet domestic demand. This resource vulnerability weighs heavily on the minds of Chinese leaders who, in addition to worrying about terrorism, piracy and environmental disruptions to their energy supplies, are acutely aware that their main competitor, the US."

- Alan Dupont, professor of International Security

For Dupont, China has more to gain than lose once it establishes itself in the potentially oil-rich disputed waters.

He also cited a recent Georgetown University study suggesting that East Asian countries such as China and Japan may choose to lose economically than lose maritime and territorial sovereignty.

Micah Zenko, a fellow at the New York-based think tank Council on Foreign Relations, said in a recent piece for Foreign Policy that war between the US and China is "not preordained" but tensions may lead to it.


"The United States could be drawn into a conflict over a territorial dispute involving China, especially since the United States has bilateral defense treaties with Japan and the Philippines. Involved states can avoid war only if they establish clear interpretations of actions within exclusive economic zones."

- Micah Zenko, Council on Foreign Relations


Philippine Star (Philippine newspaper site)
 
More on China's extensive internal security apparatus such as its Public Security Bureau...

When I worked in China, I had to have my cellphone registered with the local police since all foreigners with local numbers have to register them. You also have to check in your passport at every hotel or inn you stay at, or if you settle in a different town for a extended period, you have to register your passport with the local authorities as well.

Certain sites like Facebook are inaccessible there because of the "Great Firewall" that prevents locals from accessing banned sites, though if you're resourceful you can get a VPN (virtual private network, which are illegal there) that allows you to covertly access them; many of the long-term foreign expats there have their own VPNs.

Military.com

Security Matrix Prevents another Tiananmen

BEIJING -- When visiting friends in China's capital, environmental activist Wu Lihong must slip away from his rural home before sunrise, before the police officers watching his home awaken. He rides a bus to an adjacent province and jumps aboard a train just minutes before departure to avoid being spotted.

In a neighboring province, veteran dissident Yin Weihong finds himself hauled into a police station merely for keeping in touch with old friends from the 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement. While he's technically a free man, the treatment makes it virtually impossible to keep a job or have a normal home life.

A quarter century after the movement's suppression, China's communist authorities oversee a raft of measures for muzzling dissent and preventing protests. They range from the sophisticated - extensive monitoring of online debate and control over media - to the relatively simple - routine harassment of government critics and maintenance of a massive domestic security force.

The system has proven hugely successful: No major opposition movement has gotten even a hint of traction in the 25 years since Tiananmen. President and Communist Party leader Xi Jinping seems intent on ensuring things stay that way.

(...EDITED)

And while religious activity is permitted under the auspices of party-controlled bodies, crackdowns have escalated against independent groups such as Protestant "house churches." In Zhejiang province alone, 64 churches were demolished, had their crosses removed or were threatened, according to Bob Fu, a former dissident and underground church pastor now based in Texas.

Meanwhile, the state has developed increasingly sophisticated mechanisms of surveillance and censorship, taking advantage of technological improvements and a huge boost in domestic security spending. An army of young, computer-savvy censors checks social media and websites and removes content on sensitive topics.

Users of social media such as the hugely popular microblogging and instant messaging applications Weibo and QQ must be registered and identified.

(...EDITED)
 
The first time I believed that people screwed dogs for fun and profit was when I discovered that God/Moses had made a law condemning it.

With the Chinese Communist Party consumed with trying to stop people believing, organizing, communicating.... after 65 years of trying ..... I have great faith in  the durability of a Chinese sense of liberty and the ultimate demise/morphing of the Party and its Oligarchs.  Confucian liberty may not be Jeffersonian liberty but it is unlikely to be Marxist.
 
I don't think there ever were many Marxists in China.

Mao, and Jiang Qing, for example, were certainly revolutionaries, but, in my opinion closer to the Bakunin wing than to Marx-Lenin. Zhoe Enlai was a communist, he was close to many Russians, but his communism was strongly influenced by his time with the French socialists.

Marx and Confucius are not a good fit. But, then, neither are Confucius and Mises or Hayek. The Chinese have a very, very long tradition of trade and commerce based on e.g. uniform weights and measures and a sound currency, but economics, of whatever sort, was never a preoccupation of the upper class - they were rich, to be sure, but the aim was to become rich enough to be a gentleman who, by definition, did not think about money.  ::)

Marxist notions, like "from each according to his ability and to each according to his needs" do not fit well into China's culture, ancient or modern; nor do ideas on individualism such as we find in the Austrian or Chicago schools. The Chinese culture is familial, not individualistic or collectivist; because it is familial it is also somewhat hierarchical.

Zhou Enlai performed some radical surgery on Chinese society in the 1950s and 60s, large parts of which were, still are, welcomed by most (at least many) Chinese today; some of the ideas he used were Russian and communist, others were European/socialist and still others were, essentially, English/liberal. Zhou was, I think, a communist for non-economic reasons: I think he did believe in equality but I think he believed even more in the power of communist (Leninist, not Marxist) political structures to effect social change and I think that, the social change, was more important to him than socialist/communist economics.

We have seen some left-right-left swings in what is , really, Capitalist China in post the Mao, modern era: Deng and Zhao Ziyang were capitalists in action, socialists in name, but, largely centrists; then came Jiang Zemin who shifted China pretty far towards a 'tooth and claw' capitalism; he was followed by Hu Jintao who moderated almost everything and introduced some left wing social policies and now Xi Jinping who seems to be be quite centrist, to date, anyway.

I think you need to look at the whole period of 1912 to 1962, the era of Sun, the warlords and Mao, as another interregnum, this one between the Qing Dynasty and this new, CCP Dynasty.


Edited to add: See also this review of a fairly new book, "The History of Ancient Chinese Economic Thought," Cheng Lin, Terry Peach and Wang Fang (eds.)  2014
 
If this deal pushes through, the S-400s mentioned below will also spell VERY bad news for Taiwan:

Defense News

Russian Fighters for China Still On Hold
May. 31, 2014 - 06:21PM  |  By WENDELL MINNICK

TAIPEI — Russian industry officials are denying media reports that Beijing and Moscow are finalizing a deal on the sale of advanced Russian fighters and surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to China.

Widely reported by other media outlets, Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV announced that the head of Sukhoi, Mikhail Pogosyan, confirmed that a deal with China to procure Su-35S fighters and S-400 SAMs was close to concluding.

But Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) denies that Pogosyan discussed anything beyond the sale of commercial aircraft during his visit to China.

(...EDITED)

Whether the sale goes forward today or next year, it will spell trouble for Taiwan and Japan’s efforts to defend the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The 400-kilometer range S-400 will allow China to strike any aircraft over Taiwan. This will give China effective control of Taiwan’s airspace during a war. At present, China’s 300-kilometer range S-300s can hit aircraft only in a small section of Taiwan’s northwest coastal area.

The S-400 will make it difficult for Tokyo to control the Senkaku’s airspace. The disputed islands are controlled by Japan, but also claimed by China as the Diaoyu Islands are within 350 kilometers of China’s coast.

(...EDITED)
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Financial Times, is China's response (supported y some Russian mischief making) to recent statements by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and American Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6f902368-e95a-11e3-bbc1-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz33JiFvESh
Financial-Times-Logo.jpg

China accuses US and Japan of ‘provocative actions’

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Singapore

June 1, 2014

A top Chinese general on Sunday accused the US and Japan of teaming up to stage “provocative actions” against China, as escalating maritime tensions spilled into an Asian regional defence forum.

Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief of the Chinese general staff, lambasted Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and Chuck Hagel, US defence secretary, for telling the forum of Asian defence ministers that China was using intimidation to assert its territorial claims.

“The speeches by Mr Abe and Mr Hagel gave me the impression that they co-ordinated with each other, they supported each other, they encouraged each other and they took the advantage of speaking first . . . and staged provocative actions and challenges against China,” said Gen Wang.

Mr Hagel on Saturday said China was undermining​ its claims that the South China Sea was a “sea of peace, friendship and co-operation” by using coercive tactics, adding the US would “not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged”.

On Friday, Mr Abe said Japan would give more support to southeast Asian nations that are facing Chinese pressure.

In the face of mounting efforts by the US and Japan to shore up or build new security relationships in Asia, Gen Wang said China opposed both the practice of building military alliances and “attempts by any country to dominate regional affairs”. In a jab at Japan’s wartime history, Gen Wang said China would “never allow fascism . . . to stake a comeback”.

The Shangri-La Dialogue has become one of the key defence events in Asia, particularly as China becomes more willing to voice its views at the forum. Gen Wang said he had not intended to deliver a critical speech, but felt compelled to respond to Mr Hagel whose speech was “full of hegemony”.

This year’s event became more heated because of the escalating disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. China is embroiled in maritime disputes around the region, including with Manila and Tokyo.
Scores of Chinese and Vietnamese ships are also involved in a stand-off near the disputed Paracel Islands after China started drilling for oil there in early May.

China’s neighbours are concerned about the “nine-dash line”, a demarcation on Chinese maps that encloses much of the South China Sea, suggesting that Beijing lays claim to most of the resource-rich waters.

Asked to clarify the “nine-dash line”, Gen Wang said that while China respected the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos), the law did not apply retroactively – a view that is not commonly accepted. He stressed that China discovered many of the islands in the Paracels and Spratly Islands, another disputed group closer to the Philippines, more than 2,000 years ago during the Han dynasty.

Gen Wang said China did not take provocative actions, but was being forced to respond to such actions from other countries. But when asked what Vietnam had done to trigger the decision to move the oil rig to disputed waters, sparking the worst crisis in China-Vietnam relations in years, the general did not respond.

While Shangri-La is designed to tackle a range of Asia-Pacific security issues, the focus has, in recent years, shifted squarely to China, with most of the participants this year asking China to explain its policies and actions.

Some experts questioned whether a new cold war was emerging in Asia. Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s deputy defence secretary, took exception to comments by Mr Hagel that the US was the only power that could lead in the Asia-Pacific region. “Why does the US have to lead? To lead what?”


The Shangri-la Dialogue is a three or four day conference, run by the Singapore Branch of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. It is named after the (very elegant) hotel in which it is held.

 
Beijing's fixation against the USN 7th Fleet's CVBG/CSG forward deployed in Japan continues... 

Defense News

Report: Chinese Cruise Missiles Could Pose Biggest Threat to US Carriers

TAIPEI — Saturation strikes from Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles could become the biggest threat to US Navy carrier strike groups (CSG), according to a paper issued by the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University.

The paper, “A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier: Assessing China’s Cruise Missile Ambitions,” draws from both Western and Chinese-language open source documents and concludes, “experienced Aegis warriors will respect China’s emerging capabilities.”

Written by cruise missile specialist Dennis Gormley, and China military specialists Andrew Erickson and Jingdong Yuan, the paper states that, due to the low cost of developing, deploying and maintaining cruise missiles, the Chinese believe that cruise missiles possess a 9:1 cost advantage over the expense of defending against them. China assumes that “quantity can defeat quality” by simply saturating a CSG with a variety of high-speed, low-altitude, cruise missiles.

(...EDITED)

The possibility, according to the paper, cannot be ruled out. Quoting retired US Navy Rear Adm. Michael McDevitt, China is “likely already ‘arm[ing] nuclear attack submarines with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.’” The paper’s authors could find no evidence of “substrategic nuclear weapons,” but the “Soviet Navy has clearly influenced” the thinking of the Chinese Navy.

The paper looks at the publications of Senior Capt. Liu Yang, a Chinese naval officer at the Wuhan Office of the Naval Armaments Department. Liu’s writings suggest that “all options are on the table” for the “special anti-aircraft carrier mission.”

Liu outlines three courses of actions, such as a cruise missile armed with a low-weight nuclear burst warhead, a fuel-air explosive warhead, and an undefined “special type of warhead with even greater power to inflict casualties.”

(...EDITED)
 
An attack on a US carrier by the PRC would be an act of war.Such an act would require massive retaliation using conventional weapons against PLAN,Air Force and PLA targets.Those oil drilling rigs the PRC is putting in place would be destroyed.
 
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