Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Jascar]

There is a lot in Siberia that China needs: oil, mineral resources and a bit of lebensraum, too.

China would be better off setting its sights on the former Soviet republics if it wants plentiful resources. They're much weaker militarily, very unstable politically, easy to reach for China but hard for anyone else to get into, and the west hardly even knows these countries exist.

China could use the same strategy here as it's doing with Nepal and Zimbabwe. Prop up the weak dictatorships in exchange for oil pipelines to China. Most of those countries are eagerly accepting of any alternative to Russian dominance.

 

[Jascar]

Everyone needs to remember this every time you consider buying something marked "Made in China".

You are in essence, supporting tyranny in the third world.

Disclaimer: I do not have a doctorate in economics or political science. This is just my opinion, and it could very well be wrong. That being said......

I totally disagree with you. I think we should be spending all the money we can on Chinese goods. As China's economy gets stronger, its people will have a better standard of living and will demand more political freedom. Just look at how much China has changed in the last decade as its economy has grown. Communism is all but dead in the country and the Chinese leadership is realizing that it has to change with the times. Sure, its still a dictatorship, but things are better now than ever before.

As more money is pumped into China, more people will be educated, more people will be able to afford internet, more people will start looking at how people live in other parts of the world. There is a trickle down effect, even if it's small. In short, I believe our money is slowly buying freedom for China.

On the other hand, look at North Korea and Cuba which don't have any American (or ANY in the case of North Korea) dollars pouring in. Communism and opression are still alive and strong there.

 

[a_majoor]

Disclaimer: I do not have a doctorate in economics or political science. This is just my opinion, and it could very well be wrong. That being said......

I totally disagree with you. I think we should be spending all the money we can on Chinese goods. As China's economy gets stronger, its people will have a better standard of living and will demand more political freedom. Just look at how much China has changed in the last decade as its economy has grown. Communism is all but dead in the country and the Chinese leadership is realizing that it has to change with the times. Sure, its still a dictatorship, but things are better now than ever before.

As more money is pumped into China, more people will be educated, more people will be able to afford internet, more people will start looking at how people live in other parts of the world. There is a trickle down effect, even if it's small. In short, I believe our money is slowly buying freedom for China.

On the other hand, look at North Korea and Cuba which don't have any American (or ANY in the case of North Korea) dollars pouring in. Communism and oppression are still alive and strong there.

This is an attractive and at least partially true argument (which is why these debates can get so heated, each side has a part of the truth, the real question is which is the larger part?). China is able to direct its wealth from foreign trade away from the desirable ends you point out; their internet is mostly "closed" to the external world and much of the new wealth is going to military R&D. The dictatorship has most of the levers of power, and like the Liberals, have no interest in surrendering their grip on political and economic power. The example of Cuba shows how a ruthless dictatorship can "milk" foreign investment to buttress its own power, Castro should have been gone ages ago.

The trade argument also hinges upon people being "rational" actors. We all learn this assumption in Economics 101 (if you have taken this), but a short look out the window, or reading a history text demonstrates people are not primarily motivated by the need to maximize their economic "utility". The saddest example was a book written and published in (I think) spring 1914 which pointed out that the global economy was so tightly integrated that war would be a total disaster for all parties and even neutrals; therefore war was obsolete as an instrument of policy since the costs were far greater than any conceivable benefit. The theory was rudely discredited a few months later.....

Chinese policy is driven by many factors we simply don't understand very well (Edward Campbell has written some excellent posts in this thread about that), so what may seem "rational" may end up being a trigger for an "irrational" response driven by pride, envy, guilt or any other factors we do not think about. Since this is a dictatorship we are talking about, there are very few people involved in the decision cycle, so things may hinge on how one person is feeling that day.

 

[Wizard of OZ]

This thread reads like a Tom Clancy novel.  Who will help Russia when or if China invades?  The Americans would at least in terms of air power and naval power.  They would not want to see all of those resources funnelled into a military IMOO.  As for India they may even side with China as both nations have huge growing populations but India is a little more pro-West then China.  As for the Taiwan issue.  Numbers good but not so good if they can't even get to the target area.  You must not forget that the Americans have sold alot of front line anti air to Taiwan in order to protect the island from any invasion force.  This would work if you parked one or two carrier groups in behind the island, not a really good chance and of the Chinese would make it to the island in fighting strength.  The Kilos subs are quiet but they have to get into the area to be effective this means running at some speed and having to snorkel if they do that you can beat they will be found and tailed or sunk.  I really don't see this happening anytime soon.  I see a struggle in NK with SK and Japan before I see anything like this happening.

MOO

 

[Zartan]

I read somewhere that the Chinese have constructed a cannon which can hit Taiwan from the Mainland. Don't ask me where - I don't know, but such weapons have been built before. Remember fellow Canadian, the scientist Bull, and his Babylon Cannon? It could fire something like a thousand kilometres in range.

I don't think the Chinese and Indians will ever ally with each other. At present their economies are  competing for resources, and I don't think they would share. As for foreign assistance with the Russians, I would think it wiser for the West to attack and hold North Korea hostage. Even if they have the bomb, I doubt the Chinese would bother help them, and that makes them a more pressing foe. Plus, have they ever said the "bomb" works? They still haven't tested it yet, though they are preparing. I'm sure the Japanese would give ample support to the invasion, as would the South Koreans (especially, though their army is poorly equipped (they have ten times the personnel and 50% more funding)). Besides, a good commando raid may just do the trick - the North Koreans were able to kidnap folks from Japan during the cold war, so why couldn't we infiltrate NK? As an endnote, the Russians could hold, they have nukes coming out of the ying-yang, and their army is sizeable (through growing decrepit). Last time there was a fight between Russia and an Oriental power, the Russians won (The August Storm of '45).

As for the extraction of resources from the former Soviet States in the area, that is already happening. The Americans are building an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea through Afghanistan and other states to friendly areas, and have been trying since 1998. I could see the Indians supporting this, as it would likely go through their territory.

A timeline of the pipeline is here, aswell as some background: http://thedebate.org/thedebate/afghanistan.asp
Another source which describes the origin of the company: http://www.unocal.com/uclnews/97news/102797a.htm

 

[a_majoor]

I don't think the Chinese and Indians will ever ally with each other. At present their economies are  competing for resources, and I don't think they would share. As for foreign assistance with the Russians, I would think it wiser for the West to attack and hold North Korea hostage. Even if they have the bomb, I doubt the Chinese would bother help them, and that makes them a more pressing foe. Plus, have they ever said the "bomb" works? They still haven't tested it yet, though they are preparing. I'm sure the Japanese would give ample support to the invasion, as would the South Koreans (especially, though their army is poorly equipped (they have ten times the personnel and 50% more funding)). Besides, a good commando raid may just do the trick - the North Koreans were able to kidnap folks from Japan during the cold war, so why couldn't we infiltrate NK? As an endnote, the Russians could hold, they have nukes coming out of the ying-yang, and their army is sizeable (through growing decrepit). Last time there was a fight between Russia and an Oriental power, the Russians won (The August Storm of '45).

India and China may become partners of conveinience, and China is also reaching out to the EU and Russia. These alliances may or may not work to their mutual advantage, being "anti-American" may not negate the fact that each of these nations and blocks have their own "national" interests which may conflict with their presumptive partners.

American may end up acting much like the Persian Empire during the Peleponnesian Wars, first they supported Sparta with gold and safe havens, then they switched the support to Athens. Each side was provided just enough help to stave off defeat, and still maintain a creditable threat to the other. Eventually Greek civilization was beaten senseless, and the Great Kings could start to relax (except for that wild eyed king from Macedonia. Satrap, where the hell is that anyway?).

Direct American involvement will occur in the case of Taiwan, or if North Korea slips the leash and attacks or destabilizes its neighbours, but the American dollar is the ultimate smart weapon and gives them far more flexibility and freedom of action than the long arm of the US Navy. I think a combination of "carrot and stick" policies will be the order of the day, with access to the US economy being the ultimate carrot.

 

[Jascar]

India and China may become partners of conveinience

Joining China would throw out the window any chance it had of breaking into western markets. If China were to start misbehaving, India could quickly replace it as a supplier of cheap goods for The USA and EU who would probably be more than happy to buy from a developing democracy. Besides, China and India have been enemies for decades and have fought two (I believe it's two) wars. I think India has lots to gain by staying away from China and nothing to gain by working with China.

 

[a_majoor]

China has extended feelers to India, Russia and the EU, and each nation or block is free to respond as it best fits their perceived national interest. Since one of the major questions for each nation and block named is how to respond to the ascendant power of the United States, a possible solution is to combine forces in an attempt to create equal amounts of political, economic and military power. No one expected Hitler and Stalin to sign a non aggression pact; but it gave each side something they wanted (Poland), and allowed them to secure a flank and deal with pressing issues on the other flank (Germany = France; USSR= Imperial Japan). In the 1970's, Richard Nixon opened relations with China (an avowed enemy of the US) in order to put some pressure on the USSR.

IF the inducement is big enough, then India may choose to forgo access to Western markets in return for some favor or advantage that alliance with China might be able to grant.

 

[tomahawk6]

Sometimes I think the world would be better off if China and Russia square off over Siberia. A severe defeat would most likely
cause a purge and possibly a collapse of the communist party.

 

[Zartan]

I read in the Herald yesterday a report of a test of a cruise missile in Taiwan. According to the article (which was based on a chinese article), the missile was fired at a target 480 km away, and was claimed to have the range to hit the mainland. The Taiwanese military would not comment on this.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I must confess I never understood the idea of lebensraum, as if this was some big game of Civilization where people are just numbers that move aorund on a map and produce tanks every turn or something. Most of China is already thinly populated inhospitable tundra and desert, How will seizing more inhospitable tundra solve anything? Do you think you can just pick people up in downtown Toronto, drop them off en mass in Whitehorse and instantly have another Toronto? Sometimes I think you guys only see the heavily populated coastal cities, where the action is, and assume that the rest of China is the same. Those cities have been heavily populated for 2500 years, and for a good reason. Ditto for why Chinese Siberia and Turkestan is not. Similarly, what resources exist in Siberia that are important enough to INVADE RUSSIA(you know, the one with the thousands of nukes) over? If   invading   Russia were that easy you'd think someone else would have tried it already, yes? ( and no, The Russo-Japanese War doesn't count because it was fought in China, not Russia)   China has plenty of oil and natural gas in the western desert and in the south sea, whether they are economical compared to Saudi oil is another matter, but it's there. The only important goods that China relies on the West for are Skilled workers and capital.

Sorry, Britney Spears, I missed this.

A couple of points, beyond those which some others have made:

I think the search for a bit of lebensraum is a well established part of Han Chinese culture.  These good, sturdy people have been on the move, so to speak, in search of something better for a long, long time 3,500 years or more.  Maybe not with great migrations à la the Eurasian tribes of 2,000 years ago, but they have expanded, steadily, across China and much of Asia.  In the process they weaned their culture away from place and, starting with the Shang, adopted a portable written culture which allowed them to expand while still retaining their strong sense of self.  A bit airy-fairy I know but I think it matters.

Russian Siberia is a relatively - especially in Chinese terms - modern innovation.  The Russians did not begin to colonize Siberia until the time of the Kangxi emperor around the end of the 17th century.  The Russian claim to Siberia was not really solidified until the mid to late 19th century - and most Chinese regard all treaties from this period as unequal and invalid.

There are many people in China who regard the Urals, not the Yenisei as the 'natural' boundary between Europe and Asia and who regard all of North Asia as being wholly within China's sphere of influence.  While Europeans are fascinated, constantly, by Russia's Asiatic nature, the Chinese do not accept the Russians as Asians - they are interlopers, foreigners, Westerners, who do not belong in Asia.

Anyway, 'we guys' are trying to provoke debate which, now and again leads to thought.  But, you points are well taken- and it all sounds terribly like the junior common room.

 

[Britney Spears]

I disagree with you assesment of the Han chinese being an expansionist culture. Han China proper, as seen today, remains relatively unchanged from when it was first solidified by Qing Shi Huang. The extraenous territories of Manchuria, Xingjiang/Turkestan, Tibet, and Mongolia all came within the Chinese sphere of influence when their respective cultures conquered China (or in the case of Tibet and Turkestan, when they were in turn conquered by a Sinicized Mongol or Manchu regime from Beijing), not the other way around. The only well known example of a Han expedition of Conquest was When the Tang penetrated into central Asia to secure the Silk Road during the 7th century, and all traces of that conquest has been wiped out for over a millenia. Up to this day The Chinese part of Siberia is still not heavily populated with Han Chinese, even with the goverment encouraged relocations of recent years. To put this into perspective, Very few Chinese people today feel any attachment to Mongolia, and Mongolia was essentially annexed by the Red Army in 1945!

There are many people in China who regard the Urals, not the Yenisei as the 'natural' boundary between Europe and Asia and who regard all of North Asia as being wholly within China's sphere of influence.

I'm sure there are a few of them and I'm sure they are regular members at militaryphotos.net, but I'm also sure that if you brought this up in a bar in China you'd get a lot of funny looks.  When people in China talk about "Lebensraum" today, they are probably talking about Vancouver, not Vladivostok.  ;D

Of course, I wouldn't discount the possibility that a war might result from purely geopolitical machinations, and it looks nice in a Tom Clancy novel,  but you are mistaken if you think many people in China feel they have some kind of manifest destiny in Russian Siberia.


As an interesting aside, offical maps published by the Nationalist goverment (Republic of China) in exile in Taiwan still reflect pre-World War II Chinese borders, and the ROC goverment still claims Mongolia and large swathes of Sibera as Chinese territory. Most Mainlanders find this somewhat amusing.

 

[a_majoor]

There are a couple of flash points which might spark a war or confrontation with China, the need for resources to maintain economic growht and internal stability, the question of Taiwan and the appeal of being a regional hegemon and restoring China to its "rightful" place as the Middle Kingdom.

The need for resources is the most pressing, and may involve China in confrontations with "non Western" actors such as Russia or India. If this is the case, we may be interested bystanders, or weigh in as best suits OUR national interests.

In the case of Taiwan, I think the need to support a democracy, an important trading partner and show resolve to other nations in similar circumstances outweighs other considerations. This also applies to the idea of China becoming a hegemonic power, unless the Chinese are content with the highly symbolic and ritualistic sorts of displays of the distant past (where nations on the outside would "trade" with China, not realizing they were being seen within the Middle Kindom as symbolicly paying tribute), it seems unlikely they will be content to be surrounded by US clients like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Sinapore. We could hope that in the fullness of time, these nations might gradually slide into a sort of Pan Chinese orbit, without actually being constrained in any way by China, but things rarely work out that way in the end.

 

[Wizard of OZ]

I have to agree with the maj on this one.  The resource based economies of India and China are out stripping the local resources at an exponetial rate.  Siberia does have vast untapped reousces but the ability to extract them will be costly and dangerous.  India and China could attempt to do this on there own that is a possibility.  And Yes the American dollar is a powrful smart weapon, but so is greed and willful blindness.  Both of these are present in todays government.  As for Taiwan i agree the Americans could not let that bastion of Democracy slip away without other nations taking note, (IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN) to name a few.  I think Japan would have something to say about that as well as it could cut off the sea lanes that supply Japan with alot of its resources as well, the Aussies may not take to kindly to that either being the friends of the Americans can make you the enemy.  Russia may not be the down and out bear that is outwardly portrayed in alot of American novels but if numbers may beat tecnology that may be the place to prove it.  If it came to a fist a cuff in that region China would definetly do more then just give Russia a bloody nose.  I think we are forgeting about Pakistan in the mix of alot of this as they are a regional pwoer not to be forgetten as they could use nukes on ither China or India if it came down to it. 

 

[Britney Spears]

I am curious as to what kind of war you fellows seem to think China could wage against Taiwan. Cosnidering:

- Taiwan's army, if one includes third/fourth line reserves, number almost a million men, American trained and equipped, with many modern, locally produced weapons.

- The TWnes armed forces have existed for one single purpose for the last 50 years, and it isn't invading and reconquering China.

- They've had a fair bit of time to dig in, if you get my drift.

- Taiwan itself is about the size of IIRC Vancouver Island.  How well do you think you could hold Vancouver island with a million well armed and equiped troops and at least local air/naval supremacy? Most of the Chinese Air Force still flies the J-6, a copy of the Mig-19 that might have been pretty good during the Korean war, but not so much against Upgraded F-16s and Mirage 2000 and Israeli/American trained pilots.


See this map below:

See the little island labelled Jing Men? Up to this day it is held by Tawainese troops, with a lot of big calibre artillery that can strike deep into the mainland. the Mainland Chinese have attempted multiple invasions in the last 50 years, all have ended in failiure. The only serious invasion that the TWnese are worried about today is if the PLA could concentrate enough naval assets to attempt another invasion of Jing Men. The offical role of ROC Marine Corps, other than to eventually invade China and throw out the communist bandits back to Russia( hey it works so why change it) , is to rapidly reinforce the Jing Men and Peng Hu garrison via landing ships in the event of a Ml Chinese invasion. They are quite confident of their ability to hold the island should this occur. 

No one, least of all the Chinese, seriously think that China could mount any kind of effective invasion of Taiwan, even Jing Men and Ma Tsu would be rather doubtful, and you can SEE Jing Men from the skyscrapters on the coast in Xia Men! You could Hit Jing Men from the Mainland with a .50 rifle!  I personally don't believe any nation in the world, including the US, could pull off such a feat. Certainly an invasion of Taiwan would make D-Day 1944 look like a minor skirmish in comparison.

 

[Wizard of OZ]

If they valued human life the way you and i do i would agree with you.  But they seem to be a little behind in the caring for there fellow man.  It would be no cake walk that is for sure but if they were determined and were able to isolate the island it would not be impossible.  They are building up there navy and will soon have the capability to isolate the island with out US interference (if that were possible). 

 

[Britney Spears]

Huh? How will sacrificing more lives help you move tanks across water? You need to stop reading Stalin and Mao (who thought human will can triumph over lack of capital) and get with the real world I'm afraid. The PLA has been shrinking in size for the last 20 years, and on average shrinks another 20 percent ever 2 or 3 years. Pretty soon Taiwain will actually have a bigger army, but none the less with every shrinking the PLA becomes more profesional and capable. Their most recent defence white paper places the profesional development of NCOs and the establishment of a skilled and effective NCO core  as their number 1 priority, in order to move away from the officer heavy soviet system they inherited. I think they've even added a couple of higher level (i.e., Brigade and above) NCO ranks that didn't exist in the soviet system before, so that NCOs have more career prospects as they move up the chain. Sound familiar? Ring any bells?  Heck it sounds better than a lot of the crap WE do.

 

[Wizard of OZ]

It won't and i never said it would.  All i stated was that if they valued human life the way we do you would not even have to worry or we would not be having this discussion but they don't. 

And even if they left TW alone there is a big flashy pool of resources right up north of them.  Traing and upgrading their army is only one aspect.  If there economy is strong enough they may be able to slowly merge this into there fold with an ever expanding economy and envleope the area by developing the resouces for or even with the Russians.  This would give them huge influlence in Europe and solidify there postion in the Pacific as it could meet there resource needs for years to come.

 

[a_majoor]

Britney has made a few good points about the relative strengths and wealness of the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries.

China would be in big trouble if they tried a conventional invasion, but there are a lot of indications they are trying to create a creditable asymetrical threat. Why attempt to dogfight F-16s or US Navy F'A -18s when you can demolish the available airfields with a mass ballistic missile attack? China is thought to have up to 700 missiles available to perform a saturation attack against high value targets in Tiawan, and it would be rather easy for them to infiltrate SF and commando type forces on the island in the weeks and months prior to the attack to take advantage of the chaos. A naval "surge" deployment under the guise of an exercise would put assets in the right places to make US and Japanese naval response difficult, and place American carrier aviation at the outside edge of their range. Combine that with the overwhelming number of jets the Chinese could throw into battle (led by top of the line SU 27s to clear a path through surviving high performance Taiwanese and American jets) and the Chinese have obtained the local superioraty they need to lift or ship the occupation forces into position.

Invading Taiwan will not be easy, and may not be successful even if every trick in the book is being used. The threat of invasion, combined with sabre rattling (such as "testing" missiles by firing them into the sea lanes neat Taiwan) forces the Taiwanese to divert a fair portion of their economy away from competing with China for markets, but also has the possibility of slipping out of control one day.

 

[Zipper]

All this is interesting. But I still struggle with WHY they feel they need to own one little island in the first place? If it is because they did in the past? Then should we not expect them to want to have land all the way to Hungary? Should not the Italians feel they own most of Europe and much of west Asia and North Africa? The Spanish want to have South America and half of North America back? The ideas of vast empires and control of large tracts of land are over. With all the ethnic wars popping up, its a wonder we haven't moved back to tribal sized territory already.